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Copper falls from record highs due to physical demand
The copper price hit a new record on Wednesday, thanks to persistent demand by speculative funds. However, some investors were concerned that the high price would discourage industrial buyers from buying. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.1% to $13,176.50 per metric tonne by 1030 GMT after reaching a record high of $13,407. LME copper prices have risen by 44% in the last 12 months. This is due to disruptions at the mines and concerns about deficits for this year. Also, a large flow of metal has been sent to the U.S. before potential tariffs which could tighten supply elsewhere. "With all the?concerns? about debasement and financial risks, as well as Fed independence, these hard assets are just sensational," Ole Hansen, head commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, in Copenhagen, said. There's a limit to industrial metals, where we?hit a wall when it comes to potential demand destruction. I don't even know where this level is or if it's already reached. He said that if you look at the?technical signal, a closing below $13,000 will cause a downward reaction. Hansen stated that the copper demand in China appeared to be stable and there was a potential for stocking before the Lunar New Year holiday. After hitting a record high of 105.650 yuan, the most-traded contract for copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended daytime trading 0.9% higher, at 104.120 yuan per ton ($14.931.88). Investors bet that demand for tin, which is used in semiconductors, will grow rapidly as a result of the artificial intelligence boom. SHFE tin rose 8%, reaching the upper limit of 413,170 Yuan. LME tin increased 4.1%, to $51,550. The fundamentals of tin have not changed dramatically. Jing Xiao said that the price rally was fueled by speculative trading. Tom Langston?at The International Tin Association?agreed that supply-demand metrics had not changed, noting the record interest rates on the LME. Other metals saw a 0.1% increase in LME aluminium to $3.200 per ton. Zinc rose 1% at $3.232. Lead added 0.4% at $2.069, and nickel climbed 1.7% to 17.995.
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Malaysia's state utility signs a deal to send energy from Laos and Singapore, revitalizing a cross-border project
Malaysia's state-run utilities firm signed a 2-year energy - agreement to transmit electricity from Laos into Singapore. This deal revives a Southeast Asian multilateral power trade - agreement that has been stalled since the year 2024. Tenaga Nasional Berhad, in a filing to the bourse on Wednesday, said that Energy Wheeling Agreement Phase 2 is part of a project to integrate power from Laos with Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore. This will allow up to 100 megawatts in Laos to supply power via Thailand and Malaysia to Singapore using existing transmission links. The first phase was signed in 2022 with a validity of two years that ended June 22, 2024. Malaysia's Energy Minister in October last said that the delay was due to?local political changes in Thailand. According to an agreement signed Wednesday, the state utility Electricite?Du Laos pays TNB for wheeling?services in order to transmit energy produced in Laos from Singapore. The deal is part ?of the second phase of ?the Lao PDR-Thailand-Malaysia-Singapore Power Integration Project, which is a precursor to a ?broader ASEAN Power Grid initiative aiming to connect all ten member states and tackle the region's growing reliance on fossil fuels. (Reporting and editing by David Stanway; Ashley Tang)
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Gold and silver reach historic highs amid geopolitical tensions and Fed uncertainty
Silver broke through $90 for the first time and gold reached a new record on Wednesday. The escalating tensions in Iran, along with concerns about the Federal Reserve’s autonomy, fueled demand for safe havens, while lower inflation numbers boosted bets to cut rates. Gold spot rose 0.9%, to $4,627.72 an ounce, by 1001 GMT. This was after the gold price had reached a session high of $4.639.48. U.S. gold futures for delivery in February rose by 0.8% to $4 636. Jamie Dutta is the chief analyst at Nemo.money. He said that prices are rising because of "well-known haven characteristics" amid increased geopolitical risk, fiscal uncertainty and concerns over Fed independence. The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome 'Powell was backed by central bankers from around the globe on Tuesday. They issued an unprecedented statement of support after the Trump administration threatened to indict him, which could have a negative impact on the trust that people place in U.S. assets like the dollar. Dutta said that "protests in Iran maintain geopolitical tensions, resulting in a strong demand for bullion." HRANA, a rights group based in the United States, said that the death toll has reached 2,571, sparking threats from?U.S. intervention. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday that the core Consumer Price Index in the United States rose by 0.2% from one month to the next and 2.6% over the course of a year. Powell, the Fed's chairman, has been urged by President Donald Trump to reduce interest rates "meaningfully". The traders expect?two rate cuts in this year. Low interest rates are usually in favour of non-yielding gold. Spot silver rose 4%, to $90.46 an ounce. This is down from a record high of $91.53. It has risen by nearly 27% within just 14 days of this year. Dutta stated that "long-term targets" are big numbers like $5,000 and $100 respectively for gold and Silver. After touching a session high of $2,406.75 per ounce earlier, spot platinum rose 3.5%. It hit a record $2,478.50/oz on December 29. Palladium increased 0.1%, to $1840.19 per ounce. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez in Bengaluru, with Pablo Sinha reporting from Bengaluru)
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TotalEnergies and Bahrain's Bapco Energies form Middle East Trading Venture
TotalEnergies, the French oil giant, announced on Wednesday that it had?formed BxT Trading a joint venture with Bahrain's Bapco Energies. The Middle East-focused venture is expected to trade products from Bapco’s Sitra refinery, which produces 267,000 barrels per day. The partnership builds upon a 2024 agreement?underwhich Total agreed to expand and modernise the?Sitra refinery to reach a throughput capacity 380,000 barrels per d?ay and to share its trading expertise. It also explored options to partner with Bahrain in projects involving renewable energy and liquefied gas. Bapco announced in December a new increase of capacity to 405,000 bpd. In a recent statement, Bapco Energies chairman Shaikh Nasser bin Hamad Al Khalifa said, "Through our partnership with TotalEnergies, we are strengthening our downstream value chain, and reinforcing Bahrain’s position as a trusted and competitive player on the international energy market." Patrick Pouyanne, CEO of TotalEnergies, said that the joint venture would strengthen Total's Middle East position Two executives signed a contract in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday. (Reporting by America Hernandez in Paris. Mark Potter (Editing)
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TotalEnergies sells its SPDC assets in Nigeria to a new buyer
By America Hernandez PARIS, January '14 - French giant TotalEnergies signed an agreement to sell its 10% non-operated stake in the Nigerian oil asset SPDC (renamed Renaissance JV) to Vaaris. This follows a failed sale to Mauritius based Chappal Energies last year. Total retains a 'full economic interest in the?deal, which includes stakes of three other licenses that produce mainly?gases for Nigeria LNG. The company did not provide any further information on the buyer. The inability of the buyer to pay the $860 million price tag was the reason why Nigerian regulators rejected Total's first deal with Chappal Energies for the SPDC stakes. This dealt a serious blow to Total's attempts to liquidate its mature and polluting assets, as well as to reduce debt. The SPDC was plagued by hundreds of oil spills due to theft, sabotage, and operational problems that resulted in costly repairs?and high profile lawsuits. Shell sold its 30% share in SPDC to a consortium made up of mostly local?companies last year for up $2.4 billion. Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, or NNPC, holds a?55% stake in the joint venture while Eni of Italy has 5%. The Nigerian regulators must approve the deal. Reporting by America Hernandez, Editing by Jan Harvey & Tomasz Janowski
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Copper prices rise as concerns over supply outweigh dollar strength
The price of copper peaked on Wednesday as global supply concerns, mounting geopolitical risk and a stronger dollar outweighed the pressure. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most-traded contract for copper closed the daytime trading session 0.85% higher, at 104120 yuan per metric ton, after reaching an all-time record of 105650 yuan. The benchmark three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.58% at $13,240 per metric ton as of 0743 GMT after hitting a record high earlier. The price of copper has been supported by "disruptions" at mines, concerns about deficits in this year and an influx of red metal into the United States. Supply elsewhere is being squeezed by potential tariffs. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Tuesday that help was on its way for Iranians. Analysts say that this fueled concerns about geopolitical risk, which led some investors to rush into commodities with "healthy fundamentals" such as copper or tin. A stronger dollar has capped the price increases. The tin price in Shanghai and London has also reached record levels, with gains so far this month of 23,6% and 30,4% respectively. Analysts say that more funds have been invested in the tin industry, as investors bet on the rapid growth of demand for this metal which is used to manufacture semiconductors and will?benefit the artificial intelligence boom'. SHFE tin increased 8%, reaching the upper limit of 413,170 Yuan. LME tin rose?more than 5 % to $52,495. Jing Xiao is an analyst with broker SDIC Futures. She said that she does not believe there has been a dramatic shift in tin fundamentals. The round of 'price rally' was driven by speculative trade. Xiao stated that the demand for tin in 'the AI sector was overestimated, while the consumption of traditional 'users were underestimated. The high prices of the products have dampened consumer demand, while this year's supply growth will probably exceed expectations. This points to potential downside risks." SHFE aluminium slipped 0.06%. Nickel slipped 0.11%. Lead dipped by 0.17%. Zinc grew by 0.51%. Aluminium, nickel, and lead are among the other metals traded on the LME.
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Silver cracks $90 in Fed rate cut betting
Silver broke the $90 barrier for the first time and gold reached a new record on Wednesday, after softer than expected U.S. inflation data fueled bets that interest rates would be cut amid geopolitical uncertainties. Gold spot rose 1%, to $4,632.03 an ounce, as of 0715 GMT. It had earlier reached a session high of $4.639.42. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery rose by 0.9% to $4639.50. Silver spot jumped by 3.6%, to $90.11 per ounce. It has risen nearly 27% this year. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst at KCM Trade. He said that "U.S. Consumer Price Index numbers showed?that inflation remained largely contained (year-on year)" and that risk assets might be hoping for a similar benign Producer Price Index reading to keep expectations for further monetary easing alive. Core CPI in the U.S. rose 0.2% from month to month in December. This was below analysts' expectations for a 0.3% increase m/m, and 2.7% year-over-year. The U.S. core PPI data will be released later today. U.S. president Donald Trump welcomed inflation figures and reiterated his call for U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, to reduce interest rates "meaningfully." Powell received the support of top Wall Street bankers and global central bankers on Tuesday, following news that the Trump administration had decided to investigate him. Former Fed chiefs also condemned the government's decision. Analysts claim that concerns about the dollar and Fed independence, as well as trust in U.S. assets such as the dollar, have contributed to safe-haven demands. Investors anticipate two rate cuts of 25 basis points this year, the first one in June. Gold is traditionally favored by low-interest rate environments and geopolitical/economic uncertainty. ANZ said in a Wednesday note that it expects gold prices to rise above $5,000/oz by the first half 2026. Silver's next milestone will be $100, and Brian Lan, managing director of GoldSilver Central, believes that this metal is likely to see high gains in percentage terms. After touching a week-high, spot platinum rose 2.7% to $2.386.60 an ounce. It hit a record $2,478.50/oz on December 29. Palladium rose 0.8% to $1,854.70 an ounce. Ishaan arora reported; Mrigank dhaniwala, Harikrishnan Nair and Rashmi aich edited.
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Nestle CEO apologizes for instant formula recall
Nestle CEO Philipp Navratil apologized?over the recall of certain batches of 'the?firms infant nutrition products in dozens of -countries. This was a new blow for the Swiss consumer goods company after a difficult 2025. "Before I go into more detail about the situation, I want to sincerely apologize for any worry or disruption this may have caused our customers, our caregivers, and parents," Navratil stated in a video released by the 'company. Navratil announced that all recalls had been made. According to the CEO, there are no confirmed illnesses linked to products. The recall has increased the 'pressure' on KitKat and Nescafe makers and their new CEO Navratil. Navratil is trying to revive growth by a re-evaluation of its portfolio after management changes. Navratil stated that the 'firm confirmed a concern about quality?at an of its factories located in the Netherlands in December and 'began a preventative recall in several European countries, where the products affected were sold. (Reporting and editing by Ludwig Burger.)
McGeever: The 100 billion dollar Treasury record that you missed.
For good reason, the recent spike in 30-year bond yields has been a headline story on world bond markets. With so much focus on the long end, it seems that few have noticed the historic changes in the ultra-short U.S. Treasury Market.
The weekly sale of four-week T bills has now reached the landmark of $100 billion. The September 4 auction marked the fifth consecutive sales at this record-high amount.
This new government strategy is reflected in the flood of bills being sold. The Trump administration wants to lower the country's overall interest rates and debt maturity profile by borrowing at the short end of the curve.
It seems to be working so far.
Investors expect at least 150 basis point of rate easing before the end of this year.
This is not only lowering bill rates and yields on short-term bonds, but also yields over the longer term. The benchmark 10-year rate is at its lowest level since the 'Liberation Day tariff chaos' in April, and the 30-year rate is once again slipping away from 5%.
Investors who lend to Uncle Sam over a period of 10 years with the associated risk get paid 4.08% annually, while those who lend to Uncle Sam in a four-week period receive 4.20%. These bill auctions are generating strong demand. Last week's $100-billion sale was 2,78 times oversubscribed.
What's the issue?
Let me Roll It
The biggest worry is the 'rollover risk'. The government must refinance large portions of its debt more often because it concentrates sales on the front of the curve. It is then more vulnerable to unexpected financial, political, or economic shocks. These could lead to an increase in short-term borrowing rates or force the Fed's policy rate to be raised.
Fed expectations may be skewed downwards right now. But what if inflation expectations start to rise and the Fed is forced to stop its easing cycle, or even raise rates?
This is not a crazy scenario. Goldman Sachs says the Fed is likely to ease in a climate of 3% inflation, high equity markets and the most accommodative financial conditions for three-and-a half years. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model also predicts 3.5% economic growth. The full impact of Trump's new tariffs on inflation is not taken into consideration.
The increased bill issuance is well-absorbed, but the cash that goes into them depletes liquidity pools and buffers elsewhere in the system. The overnight reverse repo facility of the Fed is almost empty and total bank reserve at the Fed is declining.
Nobody knows the minimum level of comfortable reserves in the banking system. In late 2019, a sudden fall below this level caused significant volatility in the money markets and an increase in overnight rates.
Experts believe that it is higher now, due to the expansion of the banking system and economy. Reserves are decreasing steadily and may soon fall below $3 trillion. Citi analysts warn that they will continue to "march" below this level as Tbill issuance increases, potentially pushing up repo rates and financing costs.
THRESHOLD
According to Wall Street estimates, the Treasury is increasingly relying on T-bills as a funding source. This could mean that new issuances over the next 18 month may exceed $1.5 trillion.
The share of outstanding bills is also likely to increase. Currently, this portion is just under 21 percent. This is slightly below the historical median of 22.5% and above the range recommended by Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee.
T Rowe Price analysts believe the share will soon reach 25%. This is a level that was last seen during pandemics and the Global Financial Crisis. It suggests borrowing policies seen before crises may become the norm.
All of this won't be a problem as long as the demand for increased issuance is strong.
There's good reason to think that this will be the outcome. Money market funds, the largest buyers of T-bills, have seen their holdings explode from $4.7 billion in early 2020 to over $7 trillion today. There is also a massive demand for T-bills from stablecoin issues, who want to back their crypto assets using safe and liquid assets such as T-bills.
The market may continue to "play ball" with the new government funding strategy. The Trump administration is hoping so, with over $1 trillion in new issuances coming.
(source: Reuters)