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As markets consider rate cuts, stocks are higher and the dollar's losing streak will continue.
The dollar fell and was poised to lose its 10th consecutive day against a basket major currencies, fueled by expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut. The benchmark S&P500 was flat in the early morning trade, after two sessions of gains. The biggest losses were in healthcare, consumer discretionary, and materials stocks, while real estate and financials were on the rise. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.09%. The S&P 500 slipped 0.06%. And the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.14%. STOXX 600 in Europe was up by 0.42%, and is still on track for a modest gain each week. The FTSE 100 index in London was up 0.16%, while the DAX in Germany gained 0.45%. MSCI's global stock index rose by 0.18%. Japanese stocks rose sharply following an auction of government debt that attracted strong demand from investors. This helped set the tone for a broader equity market. The Nikkei rose 2.33%. Michael Farr, CEO of investment advisory firm Farr, Miller & Washington, in Washington, said: "After a 5% drop in stocks in late November, they have recovered and are trading near their pre-pullback highs." BIG DROP IN US PAYROLLS DATA POST The gains were made after the U.S. data on private payrolls posted its biggest drop in over two and a half years. Also, a survey conducted in the services sector showed that activity in November was stable while hiring decreased. Markets may be disappointed if they reduce rates by a quarter point, then pause. This is what every Fed speaker said. Farr added that if they do not cut rates and instead say we will wait until the next Fed meeting, then markets may be disappointed. Fed funds futures have a 90% probability of a quarter point cut at the Fed's meeting on December 10 compared to an 83.4% a week earlier, according CME Group’s FedWatch tool. According to LSEG, the dollar index tracks the performance of the U.S. dollar against six other currencies. It was down 0.08% last day and is on track for its 10th consecutive daily decline. This will be the longest losing streak since at least 1970. The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year Bond has increased by 3.4 basis points The yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was at last up 3.4 basis point to 4.092%. The Financial Times reported Wednesday that bond holders had voiced concerns to the U.S. Treasury about Kevin Hassett's potential to aggressively reduce interest rates in order to match President Donald Trump’s preferences. Farr stated that the Trump administration had chosen to announce the President's choice of a new Fed Chairman in a way that would be perceived - whether correctly or incorrectly - as more dovish during this meeting, to appear to be an antidote for the message. The government debt sale in Japan attracted the highest demand for more than six year, helping to calm investor nerves over the long-term financial health of the country, which has stoked fears about similar concerns about other economies. The dollar is down by 0.28% to 154.8 yen, and the yen is on track for its biggest weekly gain in two months against the U.S. dollar. A report that said the Bank of Japan is likely to increase interest rates in December, with the government tolerating such a move, citing sources within the government familiar with deliberations. In Hong Kong, offshore trading, the yuan weakened a bit, resulting in a dollar gain of 0.18%, or 7.070 yuan. On Wednesday, the Chinese currency reached its highest level against dollar in over a year. After a recent run of hot metals, precious metals have cooled. Silver fell 2.4%, to $57.03 per ounce after reaching a record high on Tuesday of $58.98. Gold dropped 0.28%, at $4,195. Brent crude rose 0.06% to $62.71 per barrel.
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Gold stable as rising yields offset dollar weakening; PCE data is in focus
Gold prices were mostly unchanged on Thursday as rising U.S. Treasury rates offset support from the weaker dollar. Markets awaited Friday's U.S. Inflation data to get clues about Federal Reserve policy ahead of their December meeting. As of 1611 GMT, spot gold rose 0.1% to $4.211.19 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery rose by 0.3% to $4,243.70 an ounce. Edward Meir, Marex analyst, said: "Higher yields keep a little cap on gold's upside. The general dollar index provides some support." The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rate rose by 1%. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index hit a new low for a month, making gold more accessible to overseas buyers. The latest data on Thursday shows that the number of new U.S. unemployment benefits claims fell to 191,000 in the past week, which is lower than it has been for over three years. This figure was also well below what economists had predicted at 220,000. ADP's report on Wednesday showed that private payrolls in the United States fell by 32,000 during November. This was the largest drop in over two and half years. Over 100 economists surveyed by predicted that the Federal Reserve would reduce its key rate by 25 basis point at its policy meeting on December 9-10, as it seeks to support the cooling labor market. Gold is a non-yielding asset that benefits from lower interest rates. Investors will be watching the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures report (PCE), due on Friday. Meir said that the markets will remain relatively unchanged between now and next Monday. As for gold, we are likely to be in a trading range which is fairly uneventful. Silver fell 2.5%, to $56.99, after reaching a record-high of $58.98. The metal has risen by 97% in this year due to a structural shortage, market liquidity concerns and its inclusion on the U.S. Critical Minerals list. Palladium fell 1.8% to $1433.50, while platinum dropped 1.1% to $1652.17.
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Shell and Petrobras buy two areas at Brazil's oil auction
In an auction of crude oil held by the state-run PPSA on Thursday, a consortium of Petrobras (Petroleum) and Shell (Shell) secured two offshore fields in Brazil's Tupi & Atapu oilfields. The consortium was the sole bidder at the auction. It offered 7.79 billion reais (1.47 billion dollars) for the Tupi region, which is 2% higher than the minimum price. For the Atapu region, it offered 1 billion reais, or 16% more. The Mero field's third area did not receive any bids. The auction included stakes in fields that were already producing oil but had not been contracted. This gave the companies the right to profit off of additional production. Brent crude prices are falling, and the auction results did not meet the Brazilian government's target of at least 10,2 billion reais in order to increase revenue. Petrobras announced in a filing that it would pay 6.97 billion reais to cover the transactions. The contracts for these transactions are expected be signed before March 2026. It said that the disbursement had been planned. Although volumes were not forecasted, they should fall within a margin set by a production curve projected in its business plan for 2026-2030, published last week. Santander analysts warned that the payment would affect dividends in 2026, despite the positive outlook they had for Petrobras and its increased exposure to highly productive presalt areas. Petrobras preferred shares listed in Sao Paulo rose 1% at midday, while Bovespa's benchmark index rose 1.5%.
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Gold stable as rising yields offset dollar weakening; PCE data is in focus
Gold prices were mostly unchanged on Thursday, as rising U.S. Treasury rates offset support from the weaker dollar. Markets awaited Friday's U.S. Inflation data to get clues about Federal Reserve policy ahead of their December meeting. As of 1505 GMT, spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,195.69 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery were down 0.2% to $4,224.10 an ounce. Edward Meir, Marex analyst, said: "Higher yields keep a little cap on gold's upside. The general dollar index provides some support." Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Yields rose by 0.8%. The U.S. Dollar Index hit a new low for a month, making gold more accessible to overseas buyers. The latest data on Thursday shows that the number of new U.S. unemployment benefits claims fell to 191,000 in the past week, which is lower than it has been for over three years. This figure was also well below what economists had predicted at 220,000. ADP's report on Wednesday showed that private payrolls in the United States fell by 32,000 during November. This was the largest drop in over two and half years. Over 100 economists surveyed by predicted that the Federal Reserve would reduce its key rate by 25 basis point at its policy meeting on December 9-10, as it seeks to support the cooling labor market. Gold is a non-yielding asset that benefits from lower interest rates. Investors will be watching the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures report (PCE), due on Friday. Meir said that the markets will remain relatively unchanged between now and next Monday. As for gold, we are likely to be in a trading range which is fairly uneventful. Silver fell 3.3%, to $56.54, after reaching a record-high of $58.98. Silver is up 96% in this year due to a structural shortage, market liquidity concerns and inclusion on the U.S. Critical Minerals list. Palladium fell 2.1%, to $1430.38, while platinum dropped 2.2%, to $1634.15. (Reporting from Anmol Choubey and Naveen Thkral in Singapore, with editing by Leroy Leo.)
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US fuel efficiency rule could bring back station wagons
Trump's administration claims that its proposed fuel-economy rollback could allow automakers resume building station wagons – a popular family vehicle in the 1970s and 1980s. Sean Duffy, Transportation Secretary at CNBC said: "This rule allows you to bring the 1970s Station Wagon back -- maybe with a little wood paneling along the side." "We can give consumers more choice. The minivan may be cool, but the station wagon might also be." In its proposal on Wednesday, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration of the Transportation Department said that fuel efficiency regulations had led manufacturers to change the market in unexpected ways. "For example, almost eliminating station wagon production." Detroit Three automakers stopped producing full-size wagons by the mid-1990s, but smaller wagons were still produced by U.S. automobile manufacturers until 2008. Trucks are subject to more stringent regulations than cars. Station wagons fall under the category of passenger cars, while minivans and crossover utility vehicle are classified as light trucks. Jonathan Morrison, NHTSA Administrator, raised the issue of Station Wagons separately in a phone call earlier this week with automakers. NHTSA announced on Wednesday that it would significantly reduce the fuel efficiency requirements for model years 2022-2031. The average mileage requirement will be reduced to 34.5 miles per galon by 2031 from 50.4 (21,4 km per liter). NHTSA estimates that the proposed rule will reduce average vehicle costs up front by $930 but increase fuel consumption around 100 billion gallons by 2050. This could cost Americans an additional $185 billion in fuel and increase CO2 emissions by 5%. Transportation is the largest contributor to U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases. Trump signed legislation earlier this year that eliminated fuel economy penalties for automobile manufacturers. The NHTSA also said automakers would not be fined going back to 2022. (Reporting and editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Alexandra Hudson.
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Edison CEO: Group accelerates green investments; EDF eyes minority stake sale
Edison's green investment will increase the Italian utility’s borrowings, said its CEO. EDF, the parent company, plans to sell a majority stake in the unit, to avoid an increase in its debt. The Italian utility announced earlier on Thursday that it will begin working on renewable projects in Italy with a combined power of more than 500 megawatts. Edison CEO Nicola Monti said in an interview that "EDF had many investments to be made in France, particularly in the nuclear sector. The intention to open (our) capital – only for a minor stake – is to allow Edison implement its development plans without burdening EDF’s consolidated debt." Monti stated that EDF advisers were currently studying how to reduce Edison's parent company's stake in Edison Capital. Monti added that EDF has not changed its plan to retain the majority of the Italian unit. Italian media reported recently that the national infrastructure fund F2i might form a consortium with investors to acquire Edison's majority. Monti stated that the EDF management has repeatedly stated that the company would only be interested in a minority stake. Edison reported revenues in the amount of 18.4 billion euros (15.4 billion euros) and a core profit of 1.7 milliards euros. State-owned EDF, under the leadership of its new CEO Bernard Fontana has selected Intesa Sanpaolo IMI Lazard and Lazard as partners. Review your assets Two sources familiar with the situation said that EDF may end up selling about 30% of its Italian subsidiary. Edison will accelerate the development of renewable energy in Italy. It aims to double its current green capacity from 2 gigawatts to 4-5 GW by 2030, Monti stated. He added that Edison would continue to take part in auctions in order to receive government incentives in Italy for green power. Monti, the Italian minister of energy, said that Italy completed its first auction, under the FER X incentive program, on Monday, by awarding 400 Megawatts (MW) of renewable power to Edison.
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Sources say that Indian fertiliser companies will sign a deal with Uralchem for the establishment of a Russian plant.
Three sources say that Indian firms will sign a joint venture agreement with Uralchem, Russia's largest potash and ammonium-nitrate producer during the visit of President Vladimir Putin to New Delhi on Friday to build a urea factory in Russia. Sources said that the project, which aims to strengthen India's fertiliser security over the long term, will see India Potash Ltd and Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilisers Ltd holding each a 22,5% stake in a joint venture. National Fertilizers Ltd. will own a 5% share, while Uralchem holds the remainder and will lead the project. India, Asia’s third largest economy, depends heavily on imported crop nutrition to support its vast agricultural sector. This sector employs approximately 40% of the labor force and contributes about 15% of its $4 trillion GDP. India's imports of fertilisers from Russia increased by more than threefold from 2021 to $1.7 billion, reaching a peak of $2.7 billion in the year 2022. In April-October 2025, the total amount of fertiliser imported increased by 82% on an annual basis to $10 billion. One source said that the new plant would run on natural gases and will follow a similar model to India's long-standing overseas fertiliser joint enterprise in Oman. Uralchem and the Indian companies did not respond immediately to our queries. New Delhi is working to diversify, stabilise and increase the supply of fertilisers amid volatile markets and increasing geopolitical tensions. India imported 5.6 millions metric tons (MT) of urea during the fiscal year 2024/25 ending in March. This is down from 9.8 MT in 2020/21 as domestic capacity increased and sourcing patterns changed. Uralchem, the planned deal to be signed by Putin during his two-day visit to India, is expected deepen India's long term fertiliser cooperation with Moscow, even though Russian trade remains subject to Western sanctions. India imports urea also from Oman and Qatar. It imported 5,9 million tons of agricultural-grade urea between April and October 2025. This is up from 2.5 million tons the previous year. (Reporting and editing by Elaine Hardcastle; Nidhi verma)
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Niger accuses France’s Orano of uranium pollution as the uranium dispute deepens
Niger accused French nuclear fuel company Orano, of "predatory behaviour" and environmental crimes. This escalated a bitter dispute about control of the West African country's uranium mining. Orano, the military-led government, could be prosecuted for "mass crime" after 400 barrels radioactive core were found in Madaouela near Arlit where Orano operated its uranium mining operations. Orano, 90% owned in France by the state, denied that it was operating in Madaouela and said it did not receive any official notification of legal action. In a written answer to questions, the company stated that it did not have an operating license at the Madaouela location and had never conducted any operations there. Justice Minister Alio Daouda stated that the radiation levels in the area were much higher than usual -- approximately 7 to 10 microsieverts an hour, as opposed to the normal 0.5 microsieverts. Two substances were also detected that could cause breathing problems or be harmful for people. ORANO HAS NOTICE OF NIGER'S LEGAL ACTION BUT NO ACTIVITY FROM ORANO Orano lost 63.4% of its stake in the Somair Mine when Niger nationalized it in June. Niger started transporting uranium last week. It said it was exercising its sovereignty right, despite an order from a World Bank Tribunal barring it access to the stockpile. Orano called the move illegal and warned that the shipment was a serious risk to safety and the environment, claiming it did not have any evidence that the transport met international standards. Niger is a major producer of cancer treatment materials and nuclear fuel. France, which relies 70% on nuclear energy for its electricity, purchased about 15% of the uranium it needed from Niger during its peak mining period. The expropriation by Niger of Orano shares reflects a regional shift in which military-led governments are asserting greater control over resources. Previous reports stated that around 1,500 metric tonnes of uranium was stockpiled at Somair. Potential buyers included Turkish, Iranian, and Russian interests. Reporting by Niger Newsroom in Dakar and Maxwell Akalaare Adombila; Editing by Felix Bate, Tomaszjanowski and Tomasz Bate
Andy Home: Copper market suffers for forgetting its TACO-hedging:
The copper market has the tariffs right, but the products are wrong. The copper market was surprised by President Donald Trump’s announcement that he would "address the effects of imports of copper on America's security".
Imports of semi-manufactured copper products, such as wires and tubes, will face a 50% tariff starting Friday. The tariff will not be applied to refined copper until at least January 2027. If warranted, a gradual increase in the rate may then take place. The tariff trade that has dominated the copper market in February has collapsed. CME's U.S. Contract plummeted more than 20% after the news. This wiped out the high premium that was previously over the London Metal Exchange price.
The United States has a surplus of metal that it does not need, after traders shipped massive tonnages via the arbitrage gap. The copper market has forgotten Trump's tendency of backing down from his most extreme threats. To borrow a popular investor meme, it has been TACOed, which is short for Trump Always Chills Out.
Targeted Products for Copper
Tariffs on semifinished copper products are applied to between 400,000-500,000 metric tonnes of U.S. imports per year.
The United States imports a lot more refined copper. Last year, imports were just under 900,000.
Canada is by far the biggest copper supplier to the U.S. but there are many other suppliers. Copper tubes were imported from 32 countries last year.
Tariffs will be applied to all copper-intensive products, including cables, connectors, and electrical components. This is likely to include more suppliers.
The new tariff wall will be good for domestic processors - but only if their capacity is sufficient to cover what's currently imported.
In the next few months, we will know how many exemptions specific to products have been granted.
SCRAP WARS GET HOTTER
Export restrictions will also be placed on concentrates mined in the United States and recyclable copper.
A quarter of domestically-produced "copper input materials" will be required to be sold in the United States from 2027. This rate will increase to 30% in 2020, and then 40% in 2029. This may require more capacity than the three domestic smelters currently available, even if Grupo Mexico were to reactivate its idle Hayden facility in Arizona.
To encourage domestic recycling, "high-quality copper scrap" must also meet a minimum requirement of 25%.
The exact types of scrap that qualify for this measure are not known, nor is it clear how the measure will work in reality. However, the move represents an escalation of the simmering scrap battles. The European Union also considers export quotas for recyclable copper in order to stop "scrap leakage."
China is the primary target, as it is the largest purchaser of secondary raw materials in the world.
In 2024, the country imported 2,25 million tons copper scrap, the highest total ever since 2018, the first year that the authorities tightened the purity requirements on imported material.
Imports are already slowing down this year due to a drop of 42% in shipments coming from the United States because of the high CME premium.
The global scrap market is experiencing a growing resource nationalism, which will lead to structural changes in the recycling of materials.
Can we have our COPPER back now?
Not for refined copper as everyone expected.
The United States has now ceased to need the copper that was shipped by large trade houses. It may have been a lucrative trade for the companies involved, but it is no longer necessary.
CME warehouses now hold 232.195 tons of copper. This is the highest amount since 2004. Due to traders' last-minute rush to beat the August 1 deadline, metal is still arriving every day.
Tariffs have a huge impact on the supply chain of other countries.
China exported nearly 260,000 tons (or 78,800 tons) of refined copper from March to June. This is a significant increase over the previous four-month period.
A portion of the copper was delivered to meet a shortfall on the London Market caused by the raid of LME stocks on brands that could be shipped to the United States.
It was mostly non-Chinese steel that was shipped to the United States from warehouses bonded with non-Chinese metal.
Shanghai Futures Exchange's stocks have plummeted to 73 423 tons, their lowest level since last December, due to China's booming exports.
The physical supply chain may take longer to adjust than the futures trade.
Analysts have already run the numbers to see if it makes sense to reverse the flow of copper back out of the United States.
SAME TIME THE NEXT ANNUAL?
What is the end of the copper tariff?
Most likely not, as the reference explicitly mentions the option of a stepped tariff on imported refined copper starting at 15% in 2020 and increasing to 30% in 2030.
The outcome will be determined by the report on the domestic market that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is scheduled to release at the end of next June.
It is also dependent on whether Trump decides to change his mind before then.
Tariff Man is a great way to find out.
These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.
(source: Reuters)