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European shares rise by almost 1% as banks and defence rally
Investors digested corporate earnings, assessed sectoral momentum, and assessed macro signals as they digested the strong performance of banks and defense stocks. As of 0750 GMT, the continent-wide STOXX 600 Index was up 0.9% to 571.05 point. Other major regional indices were also trading higher. European banks rose by 1.6%. They were among the biggest gains in the STOXX 600. This was a rebound from Friday's 2.5% decline when investors became nervous about signs of credit pressure at regional U.S. lenders. The STOXX Aerospace & Defence index rose 2.1%. This was a rebound from Friday's sharp drop when the news of an upcoming summit on the conflict in Ukraine shocked the sector. The shares of Swedish military equipment manufacturer Saab rose 3.1% following the awarding of a Spanish artillery-radar contract. Kering, among other movers in the market, jumped by 4.2% when Gucci's owner agreed to sell his beauty business to L'Oreal at a price of 4 billion euros (4.66 billion dollars). Holcim's stock rose 1.4% after a deal worth 1.85 billion euros ($2.16billion) to buy German walling system maker Xella. Forvia, a French auto parts supplier, lost 6% of its sales after reporting a drop of 3.7% in the third quarter. German producer prices dropped more than expected in the month of September. Reporting by Sukriti gupta from Bengaluru, editing by Sherry Jacob Phillips
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Australia's Weather Bureau Casts Doubt on La Nina Prospects
A senior climatologist at Australia's Weather Bureau isn't convinced that La Nina is forming, which could affect crop production and change rainfall patterns in parts of Asia, the Americas and Oceania. La Nina and El Nino are both caused by a cooling or warming in ocean surface temperatures. El Nino is the opposite. The former brings more rain to Australia's east, Southeast Asia, and India, with dryer weather in North America. Both can lead to flooding and hurricanes. The models that forecast the weather patterns usually converge around this time of the year, but there are currently many variations. She added, "That shows that there is still a great deal of uncertainty in our system." The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that La Nina conditions are present, but in a weak form, and will likely persist into December. Models from the Australian Bureau show sea surface temperatures dipping below a La Nina threshold in October, December and November by 0.8 degrees Celsius (1.44 Fahrenheit). Then they move back to neutral. Gamble said that the cooling effect on cloud patterns and trade wind directions is not enough to give confidence in a La Nina. The senior climatologist stated that "our model is probably among the weaker predictions for La Nina." She said that although NOAA considered atmospheric response sufficient, "we'd like more." Gamble said that, except for a few islands in the southwest Pacific region, there were no signs of typical La Nina rainfall patterns. We are not seeing the same impact because we don't see a dominant La Nina pattern. She said that when you have a weaker sign, other influences can start to take over and possibly override the signal. Between 2020 and 2023, three consecutive La Nina events brought record rainfall to Australia and droughts and heatwaves to parts of the Americas.
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Oil prices drop on worries about US-China trade tensions
Oil prices fell on Monday as worries about a global glut grew, while tensions between the U.S. and China over trade added to fears of an economic slowdown. Brent crude futures dropped 53 cents or 0.86% to $60.76 a barrel as of 0610 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate futures also fell 55 cents or 0.96% to $56.99 erasing Friday's gains. The International Energy Agency has forecast a growing glut of supply in 2026, which is partly responsible for the declines. Toshitaka Takawa, an economist at Fujitomi Securities, said that fears of a slowdown in the economy due to increased U.S. China trade tensions are driving selling pressure. China's third quarter economic growth has slowed down to its weakest pace for a year. This was revealed by the China statistics bureau on Monday. Weak domestic demand weighed on the results, which raises questions about Beijing's dependence on exports in light of trade tensions with America. Last week, the World Trade Organization's head said that she had urged both the U.S.A. and China de-escalate their trade tensions. She warned that a decoupling of the two world's largest economies over time could result in a 7% reduction in global economic output. Two of the world's largest oil consumers recently re-started their trade war by imposing port fees on ships transporting cargo between them. This could cause global freight flow disruptions. There is still uncertainty about what will happen to the Russian oil supply. U.S. president Donald Trump warned again on Sunday that Washington will maintain "massive tariffs" on India unless India stops buying Russian oil. Trump and Putin also agreed to meet again on Thursday, despite Washington's pressure on India and China not to buy Russian oil. After talks with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday at the White House, Trump urged both Ukraine and Russia "to stop the war immediately," even though it meant Ukraine granting territory. Trade sources and analysts say that the pressure from the United States and Europe on Asian buyers to reduce their Russian energy imports could result in India's oil imports being restricted as of December, resulting in cheaper supplies for China. Baker Hughes, a leading energy services company, said that the United States added oil and gas rigs last week for the first time since three weeks. Reporting by Yuka Obaashi in Tokyo, Colleen Waye in Beijing and Sonali Paul.
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Gold prices rise on US rate-cutting optimism; Sino-US Trade Talks in Focus
Gold prices rose on Monday as investors looked forward to the release of key inflation data, and trade talks between Washington and Beijing scheduled for this week. As of 0514 GMT, spot gold was up 0.3%, at $4,259.34 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery climbed 1.4%, to $4273 per ounce. Silver spot rose by 0.6%, to $52.18 an ounce. After hitting a record-high of $54.47 earlier that day, prices fell by about 4.4% in their worst session in early April. The gold market is still trying to get its bearings after the Friday selloff. After a few weeks' mania, the sentiment is cooling off a little, said Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda. Gold prices fell by 1.8% Friday, the highest since mid-May after U.S. president Donald Trump declared that his 100% tariffs on Chinese goods would not be sustainable. He expressed his confidence in the future of relations with China and said he would meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. The next major hurdles will be the U.S. China talks this week, and the CPI release from the United States on the Friday. The absence of economic data has created a vacuum that, I believe, has led to the surge in gold price. The Federal Reserve is not expected to push back on the pricing of rate cuts. This should not worry markets. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the markets are pricing in a quart-point Fed rate reduction this month and another in December. The non-yielding gold has gained over 60% in the past year, reaching a record high of $4378.69 last Friday. This was due to geopolitical tensions and aggressive bets on rate cuts, central bank purchases, de-dollarisation, and strong exchange-traded funds. Palladium also slipped 0.2%, to $1470.83 an ounce, and platinum dropped nearly 2%, to $1589.60.
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Australian shares finish higher as gold miners and banks fall, but banks do well
Australian shares ended modestly higher Monday as financials were lifted by investors seeking refuge in bank stocks. Profit-taking among miners and gold producers also capped gains. The S&P/ASX 200 Index, which had been trading flat throughout the session, finished 0.4% higher, at 9,031.90. The benchmark index closed Friday 0.8% lower. Financials grew 1.5% as investors sought temporary refuge in heavyweight subindex. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade Global. He said: "Financial shares have shown a strong track record of generating bumper profit this year, so it's not surprising to see this industry experiencing strong buying flow today." Gold stocks, on the other hand fell as much as 5% intraday, their biggest percentage drop since July 9 Hayden Bairstow is the managing director and head of research for Argonaut. He said that some profit-taking likely contributed to the decline in gold stocks. Hayden added, "We remain positive on gold but see upward movement from the current levels." Sector has increased by over 11% compared to its previous session in October. Evolution Mining, a gold miner, fell by 4.9% while Northern Star Resources finished 3.6% lower. The mining stocks dropped by as much as 2,4% due to lower copper and gold price, while the weak economic data coming from Australia's main trading partner, China further soured sentiment. BHP Group, the mining giant, lost 1.1% while South32 dropped 3.1%. Energy stocks finished 0.4% higher, and technology stocks gained 0.9% in line with their U.S. counterparts. Real estate and industrials both added almost 1%. The benchmark S&P/NZX 50 Index in New Zealand gained 0.4% and ended at 13,344.96. Reporting by Rajasik Mukherjee and Atharva Singh from Bengaluru, editing by Nivedita Battacharjee
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Indonesia loses up to $2.4bn a year due to illegal tin activity, says president
The illegal tin mining, and smuggling tin ore costs Indonesian government between 30 trillion rupiah to 40 trillion (US$1.8-$2.4) billion per year. President Prabowo said this on Monday when he called to action to "save Indonesia's entire wealth." Prabowo speaking at a ceremonial event where the Attorney-General handed over 13 trillion rupiah to the government that had been seized in a corruption case against Three palm oil companies The authorities need to investigate more cases of misconduct within the natural resource sectors. He said, "I will continue to pursue the misappropriated money," as he stood before piles of rupiah notes, which were part of the confiscated money. The government has intensified efforts to crackdown on illegal activities in the natural resource sectors, such as tin or palm oil. Prabowo stated that the ceremony. In the first half of this month, Attorney General also Hand over tin assets Smelters and other equipment were confiscated in a case of corruption.
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Holcim signs 1.85 billion euro agreement to purchase walling specialist Xella
Holcim announced a deal on Monday to buy German walling system maker Xella for 1.85 billion euros ($2.16 billion). This is the largest acquisition by Holcim under CEO Miljan Gutovic since he assumed control in May 2024. The acquisition reflects Holcim’s strategic shift from its core cement businesses to expanding its building products segment, including roofing and insulation systems. Gutovic said that Holcim is focusing on sustainable construction as part of its strategy. "Xella will enhance our customer offering on the highly lucrative EUR 12 billion+ walling markets, with opportunities for cross-selling and system-selling," said the Chief Executive in a press release. Holcim reported that Xella, based in Duisburg in Germany, has over 4,000 employees and is active in 21 of Europe’s most attractive markets. Xella, a company that uses brands such as Ytong Silka Hebel Multipor and Hebel for its products, is expecting sales of 1 billion euros by 2025. Holcim stated that it paid a multiple 8.9 times Xella’s projected earnings before interest tax and depreciation (EBITDA) for 2026. It also said the acquisition was expected to have a positive impact on earnings in the first year. The Swiss company stated that it expected to complete the deal in the second half 2026. ($1 = 0.8570 euros) (Reporting and editing by Kirstiknolle, Kirsti Revill)
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Indian shares are rising as earnings continue to be positive; Reliance and HDFC Bank both record highs.
India's equity benchmarks rose Monday, led largely by a rally after results in the index heavyweights, private lender HDFC Bank, and oil-to -telecom conglomerate Reliance Industries. Profit booking at ICICI Bank capped gains. As of 10:09 a.m. IST, the Nifty 50 index rose by 0.45% to 25,828.75. The BSE Sensex gained 0.51% to 84376.21. Early trade saw both benchmarks rise by 0.8%, bringing them within 2% from the highs of September 2024. Fourteen out of 16 major sectors posted gains. The small-caps were flat, while the midcaps gained 0.6%. HDFC Bank, the largest private lender in India, rose by as much as 1.7% to a Record high After posting a higher than expected profit for the second quarterly on stable loan growth and increased trading income. The stock has lost some of its gains and is now trading at about 0.5% higher. Reliance Industries increased by 3.4%, reaching a new high of three months. Terming Positives include the core earnings of the company, retail sales and an improving outlook for earnings. ICICI Bank is also a good option. Analysts are predicting a 2% decline in profits despite the fact that they beat expectations in the third quarter. They also predict a softer growth in loans and deposits, but maintain a positive outlook. Prior to its Saturday results, the private lender's performance in previous sessions had been positive. Master Capital Services' assistant vice president for research and advisory, Vishnu Kant Upadhyay said, "Positive quarter earnings, festive demand, and optimism regarding the India-U.S. Trade Talks have all contributed to the upward momentum of the markets and strengthened investor confidence." Ultratech Cement, among other stocks, fell by 0.7% following the release of results that were below most analyst's expectations due to higher costs. Brokerages have reiterated that they are optimistic about the earnings of the top cement maker in the country for the second half fiscal year 2026. Ultratech's stock had gained 2.5% over the last three sessions. RBL Bank jumped After Emirates NBD's record-breaking $3 billion investment, the private lender has seen a 6% increase in its share price.
John Paulson, a billionaire investor, believes that gold will be near $5,000 in 2028.
In an interview, John Paulson, a billionaire investor who has reaffirmed his commitment to U.S. mine projects, said that central bank gold purchases and global trade tensions will likely push bullion to prices near $5,000 per ounce by the year 2028.
Gold reached a record-high just above $3.500 last week, and banks are now increasing their estimates. Deutsche Bank, for example, believes that bullion will reach $3,700 per ounce next year.
Paulson, who is already the largest shareholder of Idaho gold and antimony developer Perpetua Resources in Alaska, bought last week a 40% stake from Barrick in NovaGold’s Donlin project.
When asked where he expected bullion to go, Paulson quoted a recent estimate that he received for levels in the "high $4,000" range within three years.
"It is a well-informed forecast." Paulson stated, "I think that number is reasonable."
"Central banks and the public are looking to invest their money in more stable sources... "I think that gold will continue to increase in importance around the globe," he said.
The New York-based investment cited the Western confiscation after Moscow invaded Ukraine of Russia's holdings of foreign reserves as a catalyst to get central banks around the world - and especially China - to buy gold.
Paulson stated that "when the war began, (Russian) kept their gold reserves, which were safe, but their cash – the paper reserve – was confiscated."
"So, that made other central banks wake up and ask... "What happens if there is a conflict with America? "Would the U.S. be able to keep our treasuries and our savings disappear?" Paulson stated.
He said that the global trade uncertainty, which is fueled by Washington's new tariffs in part, further supports gold.
The best option if you lose faith in the dollar (U.S.), is to use gold as a currency reserve, said Paulson. He was being considered for a position in Donald Trump's cabinet during his second term.
Paulson refused to disclose details of his conversations with Trump. However, he said that the president was "very pro-America first, the golden age of America and bringing manufacturing, mining and other industries back to America."
Paulson has been investing in gold for many years and has said that he is not interested in expanding his investments into other metals or copper. He said that other minerals were a different world and they are not where he wants to focus his efforts.
Paulson, the largest shareholder of Perpetua in Idaho, has been receiving support from Trump's White House. Perpetua received its federal mining license in January and is now applying for funding through the U.S. Export-Import Bank.
Perpetua’s gold production has been seen as a financial boost to the mine’s antimony production, and ensures a domestic supply for the Pentagon of the metal used in bullets and weaponry. China has banned antimony exports from the U.S.
Perpetua works with Sunshine Silver & Refining, backed by Thomas Kaplan’s Electrum Group, to build an antimony refining facility. Sunshine has permits to build a refinery that would meet 40% of the country's antimony needs.
Kaplan said that the process of refinement was well established. "We are just upgrading it, and putting it into production."
Paulson stated that the Donlin Project in Alaska has been granted federal permits. Paulson also said operating costs should be around $1,000 per ounce, which is far below the current gold price.
Paulson and Electrum have also invested in International Tower Hill which is developing a gold mine in Alaska, as well Trilogy Metals which aims at developing projects in Alaska's Ambler District.
(source: Reuters)