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The President of Lebanon says that he hopes TotalEnergies resumes oil and gas exploration as soon as possible
According to a press release from the president's offices, Lebanon President Joseph Aoun told Qatari Premier Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani on Tuesday that he hoped TotalEnergies would soon resume oil exploration off the coasts of Lebanon. In 2023, the state-owned QatarEnergy will join France's TotalEnergies (ENI.MI), and Italy's Eni in a consortium of three to search for oil and natural gas in two marine blocks off Lebanon's coast. Two sources who were directly involved in the matter said that no hydrocarbons had been found after the exploratory drilling offshore in 2023. TotalEnergies didn't respond to a comment request immediately. The plans to drill in Lebanon were halted until the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah militant group was signed towards the end last year. After the two-year presidential vacuum was ended by the January election of Western-backed President Aoun, reconstruction plans including oil and gas exploration await formation of a Lebanese new government. Reporting by Menna A. Alaa El Dn and Nayera Abdallah, Editing by David Goodman
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Trump to reimpose maximum pressure on Iran and drive oil exports down to zero
A U.S. official revealed that Donald Trump plans to resume his "maximum-pressure" campaign against Iran on Tuesday in order to prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons and to drive its oil exports to zero. This move returns the U.S. to its tough policy towards Iran, which Trump, as a Republican Republican, had practiced during his first term. Trump accused his Democratic predecessor Joe Biden of reducing the U.S.'s resolve towards Iran. Trump said in his campaign that Biden’s policy of not strictly enforcing sanctions on oil exports had weakened Washington, and emboldened Tehran. This allowed Tehran to sell oil, collect cash, and expand its nuclear ambitions and influence via armed militias. In 2024, Iranian crude oil exports reached their highest level since the early 1990s as the country discovered ways to avoid punitive sanctions that targeted its revenue. Trump's return to a tougher approach coincided with his preparations to meet later Tuesday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The official confirmed that Trump would sign a presidential memo ordering the U.S. Treasury Secretary to exert "maximum pressure" against Iran. This includes sanctions and enforcement mechanisms for those who violate existing sanctions. The official stated that as part of its maximum pressure campaign, the Trump administration would implement a "campaign aimed at driving Iran’s oil exports down to zero". According to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Tehran's oil exported brought in $53 Billion in 2023, and $54 Billion a year before, and production in 2024 reached its highest level since 2018. The Iranian mission at the United Nations, New York, did not respond immediately to a comment request. On Tuesday, oil prices fluctuated on the news of Trump's plans. Officials said that the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations would work with key allies "to complete the snap-back" of international sanctions and other restrictions against Iran. Trump's maximum pressure campaign during his first term aimed to use harsh sanctions to choke Iran's economy, forcing the country to negotiate an agreement that would cripple its nuclear and missile weapons programs. Biden's administration did not loosen sanctions that Trump had put in place. However, there are disagreements about the degree to which the sanctions were enforced. In December, Britain, France and Germany informed the United Nations Security Council that they were prepared to snap back all international sanctions against Iran if needed to stop the country acquiring nuclear weapons. On Oct. 18, 2018, a U.N. Resolution from 2015 will expire. The resolution is a reaffirmation of the Iran deal that was reached with Britain, Germany France, United States, Russia, and China in which sanctions were lifted against Tehran in exchange for restrictions to its nuclear program. Amir Saeid Iravani has stated that reversing sanctions against Tehran by a "snap back" would be "illegal and counterproductive". In November and January, European and Iranian diplomats discussed whether they could defuse regional tensions and Tehran's nuclear programme before Trump returned to office. Rafael Grossi, the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog chief, said that Iran was "pushing the gas pedal" in its enrichment to weapons-grade uranium at the World Economic Forum last month. Iran has denied that it wants to develop nuclear weapons.
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Africa Energy Bank to launch in mid-year with South Africa showing interest
An Afreximbank representative said that the proposed Africa Energy Bank will begin operations in mid-year of this year. South Africa has also expressed interest in joining. The bank is a partnership between Afreximbank (Afreximbank) and the African Petroleum Producers Organization(APPO). It was created to fill a funding hole in Africa, amid increasing pressure from environmental groups on major banks to divert investment dollars from climate-warming gas and oil projects. "We are currently in the capital raising stage. A number of nations have already invested the money. "We are talking to a variety of countries in order to bring the capital in so that we can begin trading," Afreximbank Executive Vice President Denys Denya stated. We will definitely start trading in this year. "We're hoping to start trading before half-year," he said on Monday at Africa's annual Mining Indaba, in Cape Town. Afreximbank has not disclosed the funding commitments of the new countries. The bank, with a capitalization up to $5 billion initially, will offer tailored financing solutions for Africa's energy requirements. Denya stated that South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, and Angola were all countries that have expressed interest in joining the bank. Jacob Mbele, Director General of the Department of Mineral Resources confirmed that South Africa is interested. He had requested the bank's prospectus prior to committing a funding amount. (Reporting and editing by Emelia Sithole Matarise; Nqobile Mbele)
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Sources say that a drone strike in Russia has halted the fuel production of Astrakhan's gas plant for several months.
Three industry sources told Reuters on Tuesday that the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant in Russia will likely suspend its motor fuel production for a few months following drone attacks earlier this week. The complex is one of the largest in the world. Ukraine launched drones on Monday to strike energy facilities in southern Russia. The drones caused fires at an oil refinery, and a gas processing plant. Sources said that a unit for processing condensate was set ablaze during the attack. The unit's annual capacity was 3 million metric tonnes of condensate. Gazprom, the energy giant that controls the plant, has not responded to requests for comments. The unit is in a bad state. "The shutdown is expected to last three months," a source said. A second source stated that the unit could resume operations as early as July based on a preliminary evaluation. Traders said that the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange had suspended sales of gasoline and diesel from this plant. In a video posted on Monday by the local governor Igor Babushkin, an employee told him that there was a problem with a unit of condensate treatment at the plant. According to industry sources, Astrakhan's plant produced 1.8 million tonnes of stable gas condensate and 800,000 tonnes of gasoline. It also produced 600,000 metric tons of diesel, as well as 300,000 metric tons of fuel oil. David Goodman is responsible for editing and reporting.
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After tariff storm, global stocks and currencies are able to find their footing.
The stock market and currency held steady Tuesday, as a calm uneasy settled over the markets. This was despite United States and China titt-for-tat tariffs. Mexico and Canada had won a last minute reprieve. The U.S. S&P opened flat while the Nasdaq, which is heavily tech-oriented, rose 0.2%. The S&P fell 1.9% on Monday morning as U.S. president Donald Trump appeared to be preparing to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican goods and Canadian products. However, both countries were able to delay the move by promising to improve border security. The European stock market was flat on the last day after falling by 0.87% in the previous day. Ben Laidler is the head of equity strategy for Bradesco BBI. "I don't think we are out of the woods just yet. I believe the lack of a strong rebound is the reason." "We're putting 10% on China. I think that the European Union is clearly in the crosshairs." At 0501 GMT an additional 10% U.S. duty on Chinese exports went into effect. Minutes later, Beijing announced that it was investigating Google, and would be imposing tariffs from February 10 on the imports of U.S. cars, farm equipment, oil, coal and gas. The dollar index (which tracks the currency's performance against six major counterparts) was last 0.18% less at 108.38 after jumping as high 109.88 Monday. Investors were encouraged by the possibility of a possible negotiation with China as they saw a drop in the U.S. dollar against China's offshore currency yuan. Ben Bennett, Asia-Pacific Investment Strategist at Legal & General Investment Management Hong Kong said: "Investors are hopeful that both parties will come to an agreement soon and remove any barriers." Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.8% over night, reaching its highest level since last December. Investors are watching the Chinese currency band that China will fix on Wednesday to see if it is going to try to weaken its yuan in order to reduce the impact of the tariffs. Trump's Press Secretary said that the President plans to speak with Chinese president Xi Jinping within the next few weeks. Gold, a safe haven for investors, was trading at near-record highs of $2.838 per ounce. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased 3 basis points to 4.569%, after having ticked higher on Monday. The dollar increased 0.21%, to 155.08 Japanese yen. Google reported its earnings after the close of U.S. stock markets on Tuesday. Brent crude fell 2.4% to $74.16, its lowest level in the past year.
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After tariff storm, global stocks and currencies are able to find their footing.
The stock market and currency held steady Tuesday, as a calm uneasy settled over the markets. This was despite United States and China titt-tat-ing on tariffs a day after Mexico won a last minute reprieve. The U.S. S&P opened flat while the Nasdaq, which is heavily tech-heavy, rose 0.2%. The S&P fell 1.9% on Monday morning as U.S. president Donald Trump appeared to be preparing to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican goods and Canadian products. However, both countries were able to delay the move by promising to improve border security. The European stock market was flat on the last day after dropping by 0.87% in the previous day. Ben Laidler is the head of equity strategy for Bradesco BBI. "I don't think we are out of the woods just yet. I believe the lack of a strong rebound is the reason." "We've got 10% on China. I think that the European Union is clearly in the crosshairs." At 0501 GMT an additional 10% U.S. duty on Chinese exports went into effect. Minutes later, Beijing announced that it was investigating Google, and would be imposing tariffs from February 10 on the imports of U.S. cars, farm equipment, oil, coal and gas. The dollar index (which tracks the currency's performance against six major counterparts) was 0.18% lower last night at 108.38 after a Monday high of 109.88. Investors were encouraged by the possibility of a possible negotiation with China as they saw the U.S. dollar fall 0.17% in relation to China's offshore currency yuan. Ben Bennett, Asia-Pacific Investment Strategist at Legal & General Investment Management Hong Kong said: "Investors are hopeful that both parties will come to an agreement soon and remove any barriers." Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.8% over night, reaching its highest level since last December. Investors are watching the Chinese currency band that China will fix on Wednesday to see if it is going to try to weaken its yuan in order to reduce the impact of the tariffs. Trump's Press Secretary said that the President plans to speak with Chinese president Xi Jinping within the next few weeks. Gold, a safe haven for investors, was trading at near-record highs of $2.838 per ounce. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased 3 basis points to 4.569%, after having ticked higher on Monday. The dollar increased 0.21%, to 155.08 Japanese yen. Google reported its earnings after the close of U.S. stock markets on Tuesday. Brent crude fell 2.4% to $74.16, its lowest level in the past year.
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Gold reaches record highs as investors seek safe havens amid tariff war
The gold price reached a new high on Tuesday as investors sought the safe haven asset following China's retaliation against the U.S. after President Donald Trump's tariffs. As of 09:23 am, spot gold rose 0.7% to $2.834.24 an ounce. After hitting a session high of $2.836,98, gold prices rose 0.7% to $2.834.24 per ounce at 09:23 a.m. ET (1423 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.2% to $2.862.80. Bob Haberkorn is a senior market strategist with RJO Futures. He said, "The tariff news has come out overnight. I believe that right now, that's more important than anything else and any data that comes out." Haberkorn stated that "the dollar was strong heading into this week, but a lower dollar also helps the price gold." Gold is now cheaper for holders of other currencies due to the dollar's 0.5% decline. China responded quickly to the new U.S. tariffs by imposing its own duties on U.S. imported goods, intensifying the trade war that has erupted between the two largest economies in the world, even as Trump granted reprieves for Mexico and Canada. Three Fed officials said on Monday that the Trump administration's plans to impose trade tariffs could lead to inflation. One official argued that uncertainty about future prices would call for a slower rate cut than usual. Bullion has traditionally been considered an asset that protects against inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, but the higher interest rates have reduced its appeal. Investors will also be watching key data, such as the ADP Employment Report on Wednesday, the Payrolls report on Friday and speeches by several Fed officials. Spot silver increased 1% to $31.87 an ounce. Palladium dropped 2.1% and platinum fell 0.4%, to $968.05. Platinum also shed 0.4%.
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Westinghouse looks to old nuclear sites in Italy for small reactors
A company official revealed on Tuesday that the U.S. energy giant Westinghouse has proposed to install small modular reactors in Italy, using sites decommissioned from nuclear power plants. Construction is expected to begin by 2030. The move is in line with the shift in Italy's policy on energy as right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Melons government looks to revive an industry that has lain dormant since decades. Fabio Presot was the Westinghouse Commercial Sales Manager who made this proposal during a hearing in parliament. Italy has four nuclear sites that are no longer in use. Lorenzo Mottura, the executive of Edison, the Italian branch of French group EDF plans to build two advanced nuclear reactors by 2040 in Italy, he told the hearing. The first plant will be completed by 2035 and the second one by 2040. He added that the first small modular reactors would be available at the end of the decade, and tested in the early 30s. Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, the Energy Minister, announced in October that Italy had been in talks with several groups including Westinghouse, EDF and others as potential partners to create a state-backed nuclear company. After referendums in 1987, 2011 and 2013, nuclear power plants are prohibited in Italy. Fratin, who spoke last week, said that the country plans to finalise by 2027 a strategy to reintroduce the nuclear power nearly 40 years after its ban. The government stated that advanced modular reactors, small modular reactors, and even small modular reactors can help decarbonise Italy's most polluting sectors, such as steel, glass and tilemaking. Reporting by Giancarlo Navach, writing and editing by Francesca Piscioneri
Andy Home: Aluminium is the base metal analysts' bullish pick for 2025
Analysts predict that the London Metal Exchange's (LME) pack of base metals will be the most successful in 2025. They also forecast a shortage of light metals this year.
Analysts who participated in the base metals survey of January also expect higher cash prices this year for zinc, copper, and tin compared to 2024.
Nickel remains the commitment even though the average LME Cash price has fallen by nearly 22% in the last year. Nickel oversupply is expected to continue in both 2019 and 2020.
Analysts are focusing on supply dynamics to determine the likely winners and losers for this year, but there is a gloomy macro-picture hanging over the industrial metals industry.
Since the last quarterly survey in October, all median forecasts have been reduced for lead, copper, tin and nickel. This is due to concerns about the impact of a trade war on demand.
ALUMINIUM BULLS
According to a January survey, the average LME cash aluminum price is expected to rise by 4.9% in 2024, and then another 6.3% in 2025 to $2,573.50 a metric ton.
The result was not much different from October's poll, indicating a growing conviction in the metal’s bullish prospects.
The higher price forecast comes from a shift in the market dynamics towards a shortage of supply. Analysts have shifted their consensus from a surplus of 100,000 tons to a deficit of 8,000 tonnes in 2025.
The average price per ton will increase to $2,626 in 2026.
The recent tightness on the alumina markets has boosted the price of aluminium, but the greater structural constraint to supply is China's cap on smelter capacities.
China's annualised production was close to 45.0 million tons by the end of 2024.
It's not clear how the rest the world will fill in the gap if the largest producer of the world has reached the end of its expansion potential.
ZINC PRICE Rally Sighted Fading
Zinc, the second most valuable metal this year, is expected to see a 4.2% increase in the average cash price to $2.895 per ton.
Analysts also raised their expectations for zinc prices from the poll conducted in October, compared to the general trend.
You can see how the story of zinc has changed over the past three months. The market was expected to have a massive oversupply, but it has been surprisingly tight due to a shortage of mined concentrates that drags down the global metal production.
Analysts expect that zinc prices will weaken in 2025 and 2026. Zinc is the only LME metal that analysts expect to see its price fall next year.
Zinc's lead premium will also diminish, as lead prices are expected to remain steady at $2,050 this year and in the future.
DIALING BACK COPPER
Analysts have reduced their expectations of copper's potential growth.
The median forecast for the cash price this year is lower by 4.8% than the poll from October.
Copper is the LME Metal most sensitive to macro sentiment.
The macro-economic outlook has become even more turbulent since U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 10% tariffs on Chinese imports.
China's carefully calibrated response gives some hope for a successful trade negotiation. However, copper, which is the largest consumer of the metal in the world, is especially sensitive to any negative effects.
This year will be no different. The market spent a lot of time last year searching for signs of resurgence in China's massive manufacturing sector. Tariffs, and the possibility of further ones in the future, have muddied the waters.
THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER FOR NICKEL
Since October, the median nickel forecast has been downgraded to $16,265 a ton. This is due to the increasing LME stock levels.
Analysts don't expect much more downside after the market has already dropped so dramatically over the past year.
According to the consensus, LME cash nickel will average $15.550 per ton during the current quarter. It is expected to rise steadily to $16,750 by the fourth quarter.
Price recovery is forecast to continue through 2026, with a cash median price of $17.637 per tonne. Indonesia, which is the dominant producer in the world, may slow down its production to stabilize prices.
UNPREDICTABLE Tin
The tin market has been particularly volatile over the past couple of years, and it's hard to predict what the future holds for this soldering material.
Median forecasts indicate a modest 2,6% increase in the average price for this year compared to 2024.
This masks an extremely wide range of expectations ranging from $23,750 per ton to $33,000. In 2026, the range is even larger at $21,000 to $37,000.
This is a good example of how hard it is to understand this small, but deeply opaque market.
These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
(source: Reuters)