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IMF chief: Middle East war leads to higher prices and slower growth
The head of the International Monetary Fund said on Monday that the war in the Middle East would 'lead to increased inflation and slower growth globally,' ahead of the upcoming?new forecast by the global lender next week. The conflict has caused 'the worst disruption to global energy supply ever', as millions of barrels of production have been shut down due to Iran's effective blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. This is crucial for shipping 1/5th of all oil and gas in the world. Kristalina Georgeieva, IMF managing director, stated that even if the conflict was quickly resolved, the IMF would reduce its economic growth forecasts and increase its inflation outlook. IMF will release a variety of scenarios for its World Economic Outlook, due on April 14. In a blog post on March 30, the IMF hinted at a possible downgrade, citing asymmetric shocks from the war and tighter economic conditions. IMF had expected that without the war its global growth projections would be slightly higher at 3.3% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. Georgieva said that "instead, all roads lead now to higher prices and a slower growth." She said that the?war had reduced global oil supplies by 13%. This has impacted oil and gas shipments, as well as supply chains for helium, fertilizer, and helium. She said that even a relatively rapid end to hostilities, and a recovery fairly quick would result in "relatively little" revisions of the growth and inflation forecasts. The inflation and growth effects will be greater if the war is prolonged. IMF Spring Meetings Await Next week, the IMF and World Bank's spring meeting in Washington will be dominated by the war. Finance officials from all over the world are expected to attend. Georgieva also noted that many countries have little fiscal room to support their population as a result of the rising prices caused by war. Georgieva did not mention the countries that had requested funding assistance. She said that the IMF can augment existing lending programs in order to meet country needs. 85 percent of IMF members are energy importers. Even energy exporters, like Qatar, are feeling the effects of Iranian attacks on their production facilities. Georgieva stated that Qatar estimates it will take between three and five years to restore 17% of its natural gas production due to the damage. The International Energy Agency reported 72 energy facilities were damaged during the war, of which one third had suffered significant damage. She said that even if the war ended today, the negative effects would continue to affect the rest of world. After the U.S. & Israel attack on?February 28th, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz effectively. This sent the price of crude and liquefied gas sharply up. The international Brent crude benchmark was near $110 in the morning on Monday. Cash benchmarks from the Middle East were priced at a significant premium. Last week, the heads of IMF and IEA as well as the World Bank announced that they would work together to assess the 'energy and economic impacts of the war. Georgieva stated that the IMF is also "engaging" with the United Nations World Food Programme and Food and Agriculture Organization regarding food security. In mid-March, the World Food Program warned that millions of people would face acute hunger should the war continue into June. Georgieva stated that the IMF does not yet see a food shortage, but it could occur if fertilizer deliveries are disrupted.
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Trump threatens to jail reporter who revealed Iran Airman Rescue
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he would require that the journalist that first reported an 'airman was rescued in Iran to reveal how he derived that information. He threatened jailing if a journalist refused. Trump's remarks during a White House Press Conference marked a significant increase in the administration's attacks against the press. In recent weeks, the president privately complained to his aides that media coverage on the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran was too negative. Trump and some of his allies also publicly criticized certain?news outlets' coverage. After a U.S. jet fighter was shot down on Friday over Iran, several media outlets reported that the U.S. rescue force had successfully recovered one of two airmen aboard. Trump claimed that the 'disclosure' had compromised the ongoing rescue operation for the'second airman. "We didn't discuss the first one for over an hour." We will try to find out who leaked it. Trump said, "We're working very hard to track down that leaker." We'll go to the media outlet that published it and say: "National security, give it up, or go to prison." Trump did not specify which reporter or media outlet he was referring. The New York Times and CBS News were among the media outlets that reported on the rescue of first airman in a relatively short time. When asked which reporter Trump had threatened, the White House didn't immediately reply. Brendan Carr, Chairman of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), posted?on X?last month that broadcasters airing "fake" news now have a "chance to correct course before their 'license renewals are due." His remarks were accompanied by a screenshot from a 'Truth Social' post made earlier that day, in which Trump claimed "Lowlife 'Papers' and Media want us to win the War."
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Oil prices rise as investors pay attention to the US-Iran standoff
On 'Monday, investors assessed prospects for a Middle East solution. Iran called for an end to war and President Donald Trump repeated a threat of broad attacks against Tehran if it does not reach a deal by Tuesday night. Iran stated on Monday that it wants a lasting end to the war between the U.S., Israel and Iran. It also resisted pressure from the Americans to quickly reopen Strait of Hormuz as they weighed out a framework to end their five-week conflict. Trump stated at a news conference that the U.S. was a willing and active participant in negotiations with Iran. He repeated his threats to destroy Iranian power plants and key infrastructure. U.S. defense secretary Pete Hegseth warned that the most strikes would be carried out on Monday, with more expected on Tuesday. The post was made after the U.S. President's Easter Sunday social media post that threatened to target Iranian energy infrastructure unless the strait is reopened. A fifth of the world's energy travels through the strait. CRUDE RISE IN A 'CHOPPY' SESSION Oil had lost some ground in an earlier choppy session, as the U.S. weighed out a proposal to end their conflict. However, futures ended up higher. U.S. Crude settled at $112.41 per barrel up 0.78 percent or 87 cents while Brent settled at $109.77 per barrel up 0.68% or 74 cents. The stock market was in neutral most of the day. The focus of the day is geopolitics. Traders are watching to see if Trump follows through with his threat to bomb Iranian energy infrastructure again on Tuesday night. Tim Ghriskey said, "Traders are waiting to find out if Trump will follow through on this threat." Wall Street closed at 2:42 pm. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 89.56?points, or 0.19% to 46,594.11, while the S&P 500 gained 20.22?points, or 0.31% to 6,602.91; the Nasdaq Composite added 97.17?points, or 0.45% to 21,976.62. MSCI's global stock index rose by 2.65 points or 0.27% to 996.85, despite some financial markets being closed on Easter Monday and Tomb-Sweeping Day. The dollar fell against a basket currency, including the yen, and the euro rose 0.25% to $1.1544. The dollar gained 0.06% against the Japanese yen to 159.66. After Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned currency traders that the government is ready to take action against speculative movements in the foreign exchange market, volatility has increased "significantly," the yen flirted near the 160-dollar level. Investors were caught between optimism about reports of a ceasefire and concern over Trump's threats to escalate attacks on Iran. Markets are beginning to realize that headlines can be misleading. Will Compernolle of FHN Financial, Chicago, said that part of the reason is because President Trump and Iran have changed their opinion about how likely it is for ceasefire negotiations to happen. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 1.5 basis points from 4.346% to 4.331% late on Friday, while 30-year bond yields fell 2 basis points from 4.906% to 4.8856% late on Saturday. The yield on the 2-year note, which is usually in line with interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve fell by 0.8 basis points, to 3.844% late Friday. U.S. shares briefly lost some of their gains after Institute for Supply Management figures showed that U.S. service sector growth had slowed down in?March. Meanwhile, prices paid by companies for inputs rose to a?near 3-1/2-year peak, a sign that the war with Iran was causing inflationary pressures. Gold futures rose, while silver futures fell as investors awaited more information on the U.S. - Iran war and its effect on global interest rate rates. Spot gold dropped 0.53% to $4.651.37 per ounce. U.S. Gold futures rose by 0.63%, to $4,680.60 per ounce. Spot silver fell by 0.17%, to $72.87, and U.S. Silver futures dropped 1.22%, to $71.85 per ounce. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast; Shri Navaratnam; Keith Weir; Rod Nickel);
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Venezuela's government and opposition may work together to protect US assets
Venezuela's government, its political opposition and the United States are coordinating their legal defenses of Venezuela's oil-rich assets. Washington's recognition of interim president Delcy Rodriquez raised questions regarding who could represent Venezuela in U.S. court. The lawyers for Rodriguez's government, as well as the opposition, asked Manhattan's U.S. Magistrate Sarah Netburn to pause for 45-days a case where creditors seek to seize funds?linked to Petroleos de Venezuela until they decided who would represent Venezuelan interests. The letter "signaled" potential cooperation between the Rodriguez government and the opposition in safeguarding U.S. assets, such as the Houston-based oil refiner Citgo Petroleum, from creditors. These include holders of debt issued to PDVSA by Venezuela's government, companies whose Venezuelan asset were expropriated and victims of alleged terrorist acts. Venezuela's Information Ministry, which deals with media requests for the government, didn't immediately respond to an inquiry. The opposition's relationship with Venezuela's socialist regime has been acrimonious for a long time. Citgo and other U.S. assets have been under the control of the opposition since Washington first imposed sanctions against PDVSA to try to force President Nicolas Maduro, who is now in jail, to step down. Washington recognized Rodriguez in March as Venezuela's leader following the capture by U.S. troops of Maduro. Reports on April 1 cited four sources close to the preparations that she is now preparing to take over the boards for PDVSA's U.S. subsidiary Citgo. Netburn asked the parties in the case to clarify who was authorized to represent Venezuela before the court, after the U.S. recognized Rodriguez's government. Netburn granted the request on 'Monday to pause the case. Netburn is expected to receive an update from lawyers for both the government and the opposition by May 21, regarding the selection of a permanent lawyer to represent Venezuela's interest.
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Gold prices fall as Trump's Iran War deadline approaches
As investors awaited further signals on the U.S. - Iran situation, gold prices fell slightly Monday. By 1:31 pm, spot gold had fallen 0.4% to $4,654.99 an ounce. ET (1731 GMT). U.S. Gold futures closed 0.1% higher, at $4684.70. Iran said that it wants a lasting solution to its five-week war with Israel and the U.S. It has refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz quickly under the temporary ceasefire, as both nations consider a framework for ending their conflict. Donald Trump said he would rain "hell" down on Iran if a deal was not reached by Tuesday. The focus will likely remain on interest rates and the war. TD Securities' Bart Melek said that if the conflict continues, oil prices will rise due to tightening conditions in supply, which would add inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve will have less room to ease their policy, and discussions of higher rates could be revived if the energy prices continue to rise, which would be negative for gold. The oil prices rose in choppy trade on Monday. They have been rising sharply since the war began. Gold is widely considered a hedge for geopolitical risk and inflation. However, because it does not yield interest, gold tends to become less attractive when interest rates are high. The minutes of the Fed’s March policy meeting, due Wednesday, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday are also important items for investors. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), due Friday, will be accompanied by the Personal Consumption Expenditures data (PCE). According to CME's FedWatch, the U.S. central banks held rates in November and most traders do not see any chance that they will cut interest rates this coming year. Silver spot fell by 0.3%, to $72.81 an ounce. Platinum dropped 0.6%, to $1,976.21 and palladium was off 1.1%, at $1,487.22. Ashitha Shivaprasad reported from Bengaluru, Kirsty Donovan edited the story and Tasim Zaid provided the editing.
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Hegseth predicts major strikes on Iran. Trump claims the country could be "taken out" by Tuesday.
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, told reporters on Monday that Iran could be 'taken out' in one night "and that might just 'be tomorrow night", and warned Tehran that it must reach a deal with Iran by Tuesday night. Trump had earlier promised to enforce a deadline of Tuesday night for Iran to accept a ceasefire agreement or face broad attack on power plants and critical infrastructure. He told a press conference at the White House that "the entire country could be taken out in a single night. That night may even be tomorrow." U.S. defense secretary Pete Hegseth said at the briefing the most strikes against Iran since the first day would be on Monday. He also warned that Tuesday would bring even more. Trump and senior 'national security advisors' described in detail, over the weekend, the operation to retrieve a downed American Airman from Iranian territory. He said that the unidentified pilot was hiding in the mountains, and he kept climbing to increase the chances of recovery. Trump said, "It was like a needle in the haystack." He said that hundreds of American troops were involved in the recovery and search mission to stop the Iranians finding him first. CIA Director?John Ratcliffe who attended the event with Trump said that the agency was engaged in a 'deception campaign' to convince the Iranians that the airman had been moved. Ratcliffe?said on Saturday morning that the CIA received confirmation that one of America's?and bravest?was?alive? and hidden in a mountain crater, invisible to the enemy but not the CIA. On Sunday morning, the pilot who was shot down on Friday, was found. Trump stated that "in a stunning display of skill, precision, lethality, and force, America’s military descended upon the area, real area, engaged with the enemy, rescued stranded officer, destroyed all threats, and left Iranian?territory without taking any casualties." Hegseth stated that the lost airman had used an emergency transponder in order to locate himself and his first message read: "God's good." (Reporting and writing by Nandita BOSE and Steve Holland, editing by David Ljunggren).
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Bolivia targets state contracts and lifts controls to push for liberalization of economy
Bolivia's government announced a number of reforms Monday, as part of a broader effort to "put things in order". This included lifting financial controls and crackingdown on corrupt state contracts. Rodrigo Paz, the president of Bolivia who took office in November last year on promises of opening up parts of the country to private investment as well as closing loss-making state companies to reverse an escalating economic crisis, ended almost two decades of leftist government. Paz and other top ministers announced at a Monday press conference that the government would annul?161 orders they claimed constituted a corrupt system of direct contracting. These decrees allegedly allowed officials, friends, family members, or party members to award contracts without oversight. The contracts were worth $96 millions and led to projects such as schools and hospitals being abandoned. Paz stated that "direct contracting is often equated with direct corruption". NEW MEASURES DIRECTED AT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM Paz’s predecessor, ex-President Luis Arce is in detention pending trial as he 'is being investigated for alleged embezzlement during his time as Economy Minister under the former-President Evo morales. Arce says he's innocent and that the accusations were made out of political motives. Jose Gabriel Espinoza, Paz's Economy minister, said that the government would lift restrictions on using Bolivian debit and credit cards to make purchases overseas and on digital platforms. Espinoza stated that lifting the restrictions was a strategy to bring U.S. Dollars back into Bolivia's banking system, by reintegrating Bolivia with global economy. It also aimed to make the banking system a more reliable and attractive channel for receiving money abroad. Bolivia's declining foreign currency reserves, eroded by a stagnant energy production and exports, have led to acute shortages in fuel and U.S. dollars. Paz also said that the government will be implementing two measures, previously?approved by Congress, as part of its economic liberalization drive. First, the tax credit for fuel purchases will be increased from 70% to 100%. This will benefit both transporters and consumers due to the global oil price surge. The second removes the 'Financial Transactions Tax', which was a barrier to financial transactions, especially for those who were saving or transacting in U.S. Dollars. Paz stated, "We're not just putting things in order; we're also liberating the economic system." Brendan O'Boyle reported from Mexico City, and Daniel Ramos wrote the article in La Paz. Editing was done by Natalia Siniawski and Rod Nickel.
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Trump announces that the deadline for a final deal with Iran on Tuesday is set.
Donald Trump, the U.S. President, said that the deadline of Tuesday for Iran to reach a peace agreement is final. He called Iran's "peace proposal" significant but not enough. Trump warned that U.S. troops would launch a broad attack on Iranian infrastructure in the event his deadline of Tuesday night is not met. Iran rejected Trump's Tuesday deadline. "They made a proposal, and it is a significant one. This is a major step. "It's not good enough," Trump said to reporters at an Easter Egg event on the South Lawn of the White House. The war could be over very quickly if they do what is required. They have to?do certain?things. He said they know this, and that's why they have been negotiating in good faith. Senior aides to Trump have been in direct negotiations with Iran through Pakistan. They are trying to reach a deal where Iran would give up nuclear weapons and reopen Strait of Hormuz - the oil transit waterway. Iran wanted to end the war permanently, and not just for a short time. Trump said it appeared the latest Iranian team was "not as radicalized as other teams that have been killed in airstrikes. He said, "We believe they are actually'smarter. Trump said that if it was up to him the United States would?take control of Iran's crude oil? but he added that the?American public wouldn't understand such a decision.
At least 7 people eliminated by army at Ghana's AngloGold Ashanti mine
A Ghanaian smallscale miners' association on Sunday stated soldiers eliminated nine unarmed people at an AngloGold Ashanti mine on Saturday night, while the army stated 7 prohibited miners had been killed in a firefight.
Kofi Adams, local chairman of the Ghana National Association of Small Scale Miners, told Reuters that nine people had actually been eliminated and fourteen significantly hurt in the incident at the Obuasi gold mining site in the West African country's Ashanti Area.
He said individuals had actually not been equipped.
Previously, Ghana's militaries stated that about 60 illegal miners bring locally made rifles and other weapons breached the mine's security fence at around 11:00 pm (2300 GMT). on Saturday and fired on a military patrol deployed there,. resulting in a shootout.
This is extraordinary (and) it's tough to. understand why this occurred, Adams stated, noting that in the. past, intruders on the site had actually been frightened with warning. shots.
Ghana's President John Dramani Mahama bought an. instant examination into the event, the presidency said. in a declaration on Sunday, calling it terrible.
The government has asked AngloGold Ashanti to cover the. medical costs of the hurt and the expense of burials, the. presidency's statement stated.
AngloGold Ashanti could not instantly be reached for. comment.
The Johannesburg-listed miner owns the Iduapriem and. Obuasi mines in southern Ghana. The two mines produced more than. 490,000 ounces of gold in 2015.
(source: Reuters)