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Oil prices rise as investors pay attention to the US-Iran standoff
On 'Monday, investors assessed prospects for a Middle East solution. Iran called for an end to war and President Donald Trump repeated a threat of broad attacks against Tehran if it does not reach a deal by Tuesday night. Iran stated on Monday that it wants a lasting end to the war between the U.S., Israel and Iran. It also resisted pressure from the Americans to quickly reopen Strait of Hormuz as they weighed out a framework to end their five-week conflict. Trump stated at a news conference that the U.S. was a willing and active participant in negotiations with Iran. He repeated his threats to destroy Iranian power plants and key infrastructure. U.S. defense secretary Pete Hegseth warned that the most strikes would be carried out on Monday, with more expected on Tuesday. The post was made after the U.S. President's Easter Sunday social media post that threatened to target Iranian energy infrastructure unless the strait is reopened. A fifth of the world's energy travels through the strait. CRUDE RISE IN A 'CHOPPY' SESSION Oil had lost some ground in an earlier choppy session, as the U.S. weighed out a proposal to end their conflict. However, futures ended up higher. U.S. Crude settled at $112.41 per barrel up 0.78 percent or 87 cents while Brent settled at $109.77 per barrel up 0.68% or 74 cents. The stock market was in neutral most of the day. The focus of the day is geopolitics. Traders are watching to see if Trump follows through with his threat to bomb Iranian energy infrastructure again on Tuesday night. Tim Ghriskey said, "Traders are waiting to find out if Trump will follow through on this threat." Wall Street closed at 2:42 pm. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 89.56?points, or 0.19% to 46,594.11, while the S&P 500 gained 20.22?points, or 0.31% to 6,602.91; the Nasdaq Composite added 97.17?points, or 0.45% to 21,976.62. MSCI's global stock index rose by 2.65 points or 0.27% to 996.85, despite some financial markets being closed on Easter Monday and Tomb-Sweeping Day. The dollar fell against a basket currency, including the yen, and the euro rose 0.25% to $1.1544. The dollar gained 0.06% against the Japanese yen to 159.66. After Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned currency traders that the government is ready to take action against speculative movements in the foreign exchange market, volatility has increased "significantly," the yen flirted near the 160-dollar level. Investors were caught between optimism about reports of a ceasefire and concern over Trump's threats to escalate attacks on Iran. Markets are beginning to realize that headlines can be misleading. Will Compernolle of FHN Financial, Chicago, said that part of the reason is because President Trump and Iran have changed their opinion about how likely it is for ceasefire negotiations to happen. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 1.5 basis points from 4.346% to 4.331% late on Friday, while 30-year bond yields fell 2 basis points from 4.906% to 4.8856% late on Saturday. The yield on the 2-year note, which is usually in line with interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve fell by 0.8 basis points, to 3.844% late Friday. U.S. shares briefly lost some of their gains after Institute for Supply Management figures showed that U.S. service sector growth had slowed down in?March. Meanwhile, prices paid by companies for inputs rose to a?near 3-1/2-year peak, a sign that the war with Iran was causing inflationary pressures. Gold futures rose, while silver futures fell as investors awaited more information on the U.S. - Iran war and its effect on global interest rate rates. Spot gold dropped 0.53% to $4.651.37 per ounce. U.S. Gold futures rose by 0.63%, to $4,680.60 per ounce. Spot silver fell by 0.17%, to $72.87, and U.S. Silver futures dropped 1.22%, to $71.85 per ounce. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast; Shri Navaratnam; Keith Weir; Rod Nickel);
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Venezuela's government and opposition may work together to protect US assets
Venezuela's government, its political opposition and the United States are coordinating their legal defenses of Venezuela's oil-rich assets. Washington's recognition of interim president Delcy Rodriquez raised questions regarding who could represent Venezuela in U.S. court. The lawyers for Rodriguez's government, as well as the opposition, asked Manhattan's U.S. Magistrate Sarah Netburn to pause for 45-days a case where creditors seek to seize funds?linked to Petroleos de Venezuela until they decided who would represent Venezuelan interests. The letter "signaled" potential cooperation between the Rodriguez government and the opposition in safeguarding U.S. assets, such as the Houston-based oil refiner Citgo Petroleum, from creditors. These include holders of debt issued to PDVSA by Venezuela's government, companies whose Venezuelan asset were expropriated and victims of alleged terrorist acts. Venezuela's Information Ministry, which deals with media requests for the government, didn't immediately respond to an inquiry. The opposition's relationship with Venezuela's socialist regime has been acrimonious for a long time. Citgo and other U.S. assets have been under the control of the opposition since Washington first imposed sanctions against PDVSA to try to force President Nicolas Maduro, who is now in jail, to step down. Washington recognized Rodriguez in March as Venezuela's leader following the capture by U.S. troops of Maduro. Reports on April 1 cited four sources close to the preparations that she is now preparing to take over the boards for PDVSA's U.S. subsidiary Citgo. Netburn asked the parties in the case to clarify who was authorized to represent Venezuela before the court, after the U.S. recognized Rodriguez's government. Netburn granted the request on 'Monday to pause the case. Netburn is expected to receive an update from lawyers for both the government and the opposition by May 21, regarding the selection of a permanent lawyer to represent Venezuela's interest.
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Hegseth predicts major strikes on Iran. Trump claims the country could be "taken out" by Tuesday.
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, told reporters on Monday that Iran could be 'taken out' in one night "and that might just 'be tomorrow night", and warned Tehran that it must reach a deal with Iran by Tuesday night. Trump had earlier promised to enforce a deadline of Tuesday night for Iran to accept a ceasefire agreement or face broad attack on power plants and critical infrastructure. He told a press conference at the White House that "the entire country could be taken out in a single night. That night may even be tomorrow." U.S. defense secretary Pete Hegseth said at the briefing the most strikes against Iran since the first day would be on Monday. He also warned that Tuesday would bring even more. Trump and senior 'national security advisors' described in detail, over the weekend, the operation to retrieve a downed American Airman from Iranian territory. He said that the unidentified pilot was hiding in the mountains, and he kept climbing to increase the chances of recovery. Trump said, "It was like a needle in the haystack." He said that hundreds of American troops were involved in the recovery and search mission to stop the Iranians finding him first. CIA Director?John Ratcliffe who attended the event with Trump said that the agency was engaged in a 'deception campaign' to convince the Iranians that the airman had been moved. Ratcliffe?said on Saturday morning that the CIA received confirmation that one of America's?and bravest?was?alive? and hidden in a mountain crater, invisible to the enemy but not the CIA. On Sunday morning, the pilot who was shot down on Friday, was found. Trump stated that "in a stunning display of skill, precision, lethality, and force, America’s military descended upon the area, real area, engaged with the enemy, rescued stranded officer, destroyed all threats, and left Iranian?territory without taking any casualties." Hegseth stated that the lost airman had used an emergency transponder in order to locate himself and his first message read: "God's good." (Reporting and writing by Nandita BOSE and Steve Holland, editing by David Ljunggren).
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Bolivia targets state contracts and lifts controls to push for liberalization of economy
Bolivia's government announced a number of reforms Monday, as part of a broader effort to "put things in order". This included lifting financial controls and crackingdown on corrupt state contracts. Rodrigo Paz, the president of Bolivia who took office in November last year on promises of opening up parts of the country to private investment as well as closing loss-making state companies to reverse an escalating economic crisis, ended almost two decades of leftist government. Paz and other top ministers announced at a Monday press conference that the government would annul?161 orders they claimed constituted a corrupt system of direct contracting. These decrees allegedly allowed officials, friends, family members, or party members to award contracts without oversight. The contracts were worth $96 millions and led to projects such as schools and hospitals being abandoned. Paz stated that "direct contracting is often equated with direct corruption". NEW MEASURES DIRECTED AT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM Paz’s predecessor, ex-President Luis Arce is in detention pending trial as he 'is being investigated for alleged embezzlement during his time as Economy Minister under the former-President Evo morales. Arce says he's innocent and that the accusations were made out of political motives. Jose Gabriel Espinoza, Paz's Economy minister, said that the government would lift restrictions on using Bolivian debit and credit cards to make purchases overseas and on digital platforms. Espinoza stated that lifting the restrictions was a strategy to bring U.S. Dollars back into Bolivia's banking system, by reintegrating Bolivia with global economy. It also aimed to make the banking system a more reliable and attractive channel for receiving money abroad. Bolivia's declining foreign currency reserves, eroded by a stagnant energy production and exports, have led to acute shortages in fuel and U.S. dollars. Paz also said that the government will be implementing two measures, previously?approved by Congress, as part of its economic liberalization drive. First, the tax credit for fuel purchases will be increased from 70% to 100%. This will benefit both transporters and consumers due to the global oil price surge. The second removes the 'Financial Transactions Tax', which was a barrier to financial transactions, especially for those who were saving or transacting in U.S. Dollars. Paz stated, "We're not just putting things in order; we're also liberating the economic system." Brendan O'Boyle reported from Mexico City, and Daniel Ramos wrote the article in La Paz. Editing was done by Natalia Siniawski and Rod Nickel.
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Trump announces that the deadline for a final deal with Iran on Tuesday is set.
Donald Trump, the U.S. President, said that the deadline of Tuesday for Iran to reach a peace agreement is final. He called Iran's "peace proposal" significant but not enough. Trump warned that U.S. troops would launch a broad attack on Iranian infrastructure in the event his deadline of Tuesday night is not met. Iran rejected Trump's Tuesday deadline. "They made a proposal, and it is a significant one. This is a major step. "It's not good enough," Trump said to reporters at an Easter Egg event on the South Lawn of the White House. The war could be over very quickly if they do what is required. They have to?do certain?things. He said they know this, and that's why they have been negotiating in good faith. Senior aides to Trump have been in direct negotiations with Iran through Pakistan. They are trying to reach a deal where Iran would give up nuclear weapons and reopen Strait of Hormuz - the oil transit waterway. Iran wanted to end the war permanently, and not just for a short time. Trump said it appeared the latest Iranian team was "not as radicalized as other teams that have been killed in airstrikes. He said, "We believe they are actually'smarter. Trump said that if it was up to him the United States would?take control of Iran's crude oil? but he added that the?American public wouldn't understand such a decision.
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Gold prices steady as Trump's Iran War deadline approaches
Market participants were waiting to see if ceasefire talks could?avert a escalation of?the U.S.-Israeli War on Iran, as the deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz approaches. By 11:22 am, spot gold had not changed much from $4,669.27 an ounce. ET (1522 GMT), after falling by 1% in the earlier session. U.S. Gold futures increased 0.3% to $4694.50. The United States and Iran are weighing the structure of a plan that will end their five-week conflict as they prepare to meet a U.S. deadline. Meanwhile, Tehran is resisting pressure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump, the U.S. President, has warned that he will rain "hell on Tehran" if they do not reach a deal before Tuesday. The focus will likely remain on war and interest rates. TD Securities' Bart Melek said that if the conflict continues, "oil prices will rise due to tightening of supply, which will add inflationary pressures." The Federal Reserve will have less room to relax policy, and discussions of higher rates could be revived if the energy prices continue to rise, which would be a 'negative' for gold. The oil prices rose in choppy trade on Monday. They have been rising sharply since the war began. Gold is regarded as a hedge for geopolitical risk and inflation. However, because it does not yield interest, gold tends to lose its appeal when interest rates rise. Investors will also be watching the minutes of the Fed’s March policy meeting, due Wednesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), due Friday, will be based on the Consumer Consumption Expenditures data (PCE). According to CME's FedWatch, the U.S. central banks held rates in December. Silver spot fell by 0.9%, to $72.32 an ounce. Platinum dropped 0.9%, to $1,971.04, while palladium fell 1.1%, to $1,486.03. Ashitha Shivaprasad reported from Bengaluru, Joe Bavier and Kirby Donovan edited.
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Oil prices drop as US and Iran consider next steps. Equities are slightly higher.
Oil prices fell in a volatile session on Monday, as investors looked for signs of a possible solution to the Middle East conflict. The U.S. was also weighing the framework of an end-of-conflict plan with Iran. The markets were closed for Easter Monday as well as Tomb Sweeping Day in many countries. But earlier that day, investors cheered up when Axios revealed that the U.S. and Iran, along with a group regional mediators, are discussing terms for a possible 45-day truce that could lead permanently to an end to the conflict, citing sources in the U.S. and Israel, and in the region who have knowledge of the discussions. The official IRNA news service reported on Monday that Iran had rejected the ceasefire, and stressed the need for a permanent ending to the war. In a social media post on Easter Sunday, U.S. president Donald Trump threatened Iran with "hell". He also said that if it didn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, he would target Iran’s power plants and bridges. The market is on edge and awaiting what will happen next. Robert Pavlik is a senior portfolio manager with Dakota Wealth, Fairfield, Connecticut. He said that until we reach a concrete agreement, it's difficult to commit to investing. I liken it going into the water about chest-deep. You are not committed fully, but you have made a commitment. Wall Street was at 10:52 am. ET (1452 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average grew 73.57, or 0.13% to 46,564.03, while the S&P500 rose 11.72, or 0.18% to 6,594.44, and the Nasdaq Composite grew 57.35, or 0.24% to 21,932.08. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 1.94 points or 0.20% to 996.14. Brent crude dropped to $108.74 a barrel, a?0.27% drop on the day, and U.S. Crude fell to $110.92 per barrel. U.S. shares briefly lost some of their gains on Monday, after Institute for Supply Management figures showed that U.S. service sector growth had slowed down in March. Meanwhile, prices paid by companies for inputs rose to a near 3-1/2-year peak, an early indication that the war against Iran is causing inflationary pressures. The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket including yen and euro, dropped 0.37% at 99.89. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.33% to $1.1553. The dollar gained 0.09% against the Japanese yen to reach 159.7. The yen flirted near the 160-dollar level on Friday after Japanese Finance Minister Satsukikatayama put currency traders on alert, saying that?the Japanese government is ready to take action against speculative movements in foreign exchange markets because volatility has increased "significantly." Investors were torn between optimism about reports of a trucfire plan, and unease regarding Trump's threats to escalate attacks on Iran. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes fell by 1.3 basis point to 4.333% from 4.346% on Friday. Meanwhile, the yield on 30-year bonds dropped by 1.6 basis points. The yield on the 2-year bond, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for?the Federal Reserve's, remained flat at 3.852% from 3.852% as late Friday. While Wall Street was closed on Good Friday for the holiday, Friday's U.S. Jobs Report showed that employment growth in March rebounded faster than expected, with the largest increase in over a year. As people left the workforce, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. These data are confusing for the Federal Reserve. They will decide the next monetary policy in a two-day session ending on April 29, based on the new data. According to CME Group's Fedwatch, traders do not expect any rate cuts by the U.S. Central Bank until October 2027. Wells Fargo's Investment Institute said that due to uncertainty about?inflation, and increased geopolitical risk tied to the Middle East conflict, it does not expect a Fed rate reduction in 2026. It had previously forecast two cuts for this year. Silver and gold were both down, as the market awaited more signals about the U.S./Iran situation. Spot gold increased by 0.1%, to $4.680.29 per ounce. Spot silver dropped by 0.37%, to $72.71 per ounce. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast; Shri Navaratnam, Keith Weir, and Lincoln Feast)
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Wells Fargo Investment Institute lowers the energy sector's rating to "unfavorable" on account of limited war premium
Wells Fargo Investment Institute has downgraded their rating for the S&P 500 Energy Sector to "unfavorable". They cited limited 'prospects' of a sustained 'oil-price premium risk premium despite?the Middle East conflict. This move comes after a gain of more than 6% in the benchmark S&P 500's energy index since the beginning of the war. It is the best performance among the 11 major S&P sector. WFII strategists stated that "Sector Performance has Improved 'Materially in 2026. Supported by an unexpected Cold Snap earlier this year, and the increase in oil prices as a response to the War... However, our base case remains a war of limited duration, which we expect will allow global energy supply return to push prices down again." The Institute also lowered its rating for the energy sector in commodities from "neutral" to "unfavorable," noting that, with oil near $100 per barrel, downside risks are dominant The company sees the recent performance of the energy sector as an opportunity to lock-in profits and reallocate them to precious and industrial metals. Global energy prices have been affected by the extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz which transports oil and petroleum products from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. WFII has raised its target price for Brent crude by 2026 to $75 to $85 per barrel. This is higher than the previous forecast of $65-75. (Reporting and editing by Tasim Zaid in Bengaluru, Kanchana Chkravarty from Bengaluru)
Gold prices fall as Trump's Iran War deadline approaches
As investors awaited further signals on the U.S. - Iran situation, gold prices fell slightly Monday.
By 1:31 pm, spot gold had fallen 0.4% to $4,654.99 an ounce. ET (1731 GMT). U.S. Gold futures closed 0.1% higher, at $4684.70.
Iran said that it wants a lasting solution to its five-week war with Israel and the U.S. It has refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz quickly under the temporary ceasefire, as both nations consider a framework for ending their conflict.
Donald Trump said he would rain "hell" down on Iran if a deal was not reached by Tuesday.
The focus will likely remain on interest rates and the war. TD Securities' Bart Melek said that if the conflict continues, oil prices will rise due to tightening conditions in supply, which would add inflationary pressures.
The Federal Reserve will have less room to ease their policy, and discussions of higher rates could be revived if the energy prices continue to rise, which would be negative for gold.
The oil prices rose in choppy trade on Monday. They have been rising sharply since the war began.
Gold is widely considered a hedge for geopolitical risk and inflation. However, because it does not yield interest, gold tends to become less attractive when interest rates are high.
The minutes of the Fed’s March policy meeting, due Wednesday, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday are also important items for investors. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), due Friday, will be accompanied by the Personal Consumption Expenditures data (PCE).
According to CME's FedWatch, the U.S. central banks held rates in November and most traders do not see any chance that they will cut interest rates this coming year.
Silver spot fell by 0.3%, to $72.81 an ounce. Platinum dropped 0.6%, to $1,976.21 and palladium was off 1.1%, at $1,487.22. Ashitha Shivaprasad reported from Bengaluru, Kirsty Donovan edited the story and Tasim Zaid provided the editing.
(source: Reuters)