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LMEWEEK-Tight mine supply will keep zinc and lead rates high, experts say

Zinc rates are likely to remain high for the rest of this year as closures and declining output at some mines lower supply, experts said.

In addition to the lowered quantities of lead and zinc, which are usually mined together, a fall in battery scrap supply has limited secondary lead output, Dan Smith, head of research study at Amalgamated Metal Trading (AMT), said.

Lead and zinc are anticipated to surpass the rest of the ( base metals) complex, as the Chinese market is likely to remain tighter, he said.

Lead rates tend to rally over the summertime, and the seasonality chart over the last 14 years shows prices normally hit a yearly low in week 20 of the year, then rally through the remainder of the year, Smith included.

Benchmark three-month lead was at $2,189 a metric heap at 1025 GMT, up 5.8% up until now this year and slightly above the level of $2,123 hit this time last year.

Any cost benefit is limited as 90% of the demand for the metal is from the battery sector, which suggests it will not advantage as other metals do from China's steps to boost building and construction activities, Wood Mackenzie expert Kevin Clarke said.

Wood Mackenzie forecast international lead intake will grow by 1.6% this year, while worldwide supply will broaden 0.9%.

AMT's Smith forecasts the lead price will average $2,189 a. metric ton in the 3rd quarter and $2,304 in the 4th. quarter, from an anticipated $2,217 throughout April-June, including that. the price has actually ended up being more volatile since lead was contributed to the. Bloomberg Commodity Index.

That has actually made a material difference to the liquidity. offered (for lead) and we are seeing that in a really noticeable. method the marketplace, Marex's Global Head of Market Analytics. Guy Wolf stated.

In the zinc market, Chinese smelters have advanced. maintenance and a few have actually supposedly cut production since of. an absence of feedstock and low margins, Macquarie analysts wrote.

Zinc concentrate tightness is expected to last another 6. to nine months, regardless of reducing somewhat in the second half of. 2024 compared to January-June, Wood Mackenzie analyst Andrew. Thomas stated.

Zinc prices are likely to combine around existing levels. in the next 6 to eight weeks, then increase to $3,000 or greater by. the first quarter of next year when there is anticipated to be a. clearer indicator of increased demand, Thomas stated.

Zinc is used for galvanised steel, used in the building. and automotive sectors.

Costs might reach $3,500-$ 3,600 if financial investors. return, Thomas said, adding that disadvantage danger might bring. rates to $2,500.

Mine supply will likely recover from the second quarter of. 2025 and put zinc prices under pressure, he stated.

Macquarie projections anticipated output increases and start-ups. at some mines will return the international zinc concentrate market to. a surplus in 2025.

(source: Reuters)