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TSX poised to gain six weekly points amid trade optimism
The main Canadian stock index remained unchanged on Friday, and investors expect more trade agreements to be reached amid the easing of tariff tensions and softening U.S. inflation figures. The Toronto Stock Exchange S&P/TSX Composite Index was down 0.04% to 25,888.06 point. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Friday that U.S. officials would send letters in the next few weeks to other countries outlining the costs of doing business in the United States. He did not give any additional details. "In Canada ,...there is an expectation that we will be in a position to renegotiate trade agreements with them, and return to a positive relationship with the U.S.," said Ian Chong. The 90-day pause between the U.S. - China tariff dispute and the bilateral trade agreement signed by the U.S. with the UK this week helped to ease concerns about the recession and sparked hope for future deals with the U.S. Chong said that the markets had moved from a position of extreme fear to one of overbought, and it was remarkable how much volatility had decreased since Liberation Day. In May, the data showed that consumer sentiment in the U.S. fell further, but inflation expectations for one year rose. The markets will also be focused on the remarks of Federal Reserve policymakers. At least two officials including Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin are scheduled to speak later that day. The TSX mining subindex rose 0.5%, as the gold price dropped by more than 2%. This was their worst week for six months. Lithium Americas' stock fell 7.5% in corporate news after it filed for an initial public offering (IPO) of approximately $1 billion. (Reporting from Sanchayaita in Bengaluru, editing by Vijay Kishore.)
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Wall Street falls after US data is weak, but oil prices are recovering.
Wall Street fell on Friday, but global stocks were still set to gain weekly gains as positive earnings helped sustain the rally that was sparked by an agreement between the U.S. and China. Oil prices are still low and continue to support stocks and bonds. A University of Michigan study showed that U.S. consumers' sentiment continued to deteriorate in May, as inflation expectations for the next year increased. Households remained worried about the impact of President Donald Trump’s aggressive and often erratic trading policy. The yields on U.S. Treasuries dropped after data showed that housing starts were lower than expected. Wall Street's major indexes fell on Friday but are still on course for a strong weekly gain. MSCI's global stock index retreated by 0.09%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.03%. The S&P 500 fell 0.07%. And the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.27%. Investors cheered the tariff truce that was reached between the United States of America and China, which greatly reduced the risk of global recession. Nabil Milali is a Multi-Asset & Overlay strategist at Edmond de Rothschild. He also pointed out that news of the European Union's and U.S.'s agreement to intensify their talks on a potential trade agreement and a better-than-expected results season. "The fact we are getting more positive surprises for European stocks is very good." The STOXX 600 pan-European index gained 0.13%, marking its fifth consecutive week of gains. U.S. import price Unexpectedly rose In April, a rise in capital goods costs offset the cheaper energy products. "We are at the beginning of a transition in trade." In April, it was unclear what the impact would be. However, we do know that uncertainty has pushed residential builders out of balance, said Jeffrey Roach Chief Economist at LPL Financial, Charlotte, North Carolina. The main MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks ex-Japan has risen more than 3% in the past week. Meanwhile, S&P 500 has gained 4.5%. The oil price has been choppy all week. It rose on the U.S. China deal before dropping 2% on Friday due to increased supply pressure caused by an OPEC+ production increase and the prospect for an Iranian nuclear agreement. Brent futures rose slightly on Friday and are expected to finish the week higher. The low oil prices, by recent standards, are supporting expectations of a slowing inflation. Also, the U.S. data on Thursday, which showed no dramatic impact of U.S. Tariffs, helped both stocks and bonds. Market bets on the Federal Reserve's easing this year have increased to 57 basis point from 49 bps. Kenneth Broux is head of corporate FX and rates research at Societe Generale. This put a halt to the Fed's hawkish re-pricing. The 10-year Treasury benchmark yield dropped 2.2 basis points, continuing the drop of Thursday. The yields on government bonds in the Eurozone were also lower. Walmart, the largest retailer in the world, has announced that it will have to raise prices this month because of the high tariff costs. Milali, Edmond de Rothschild’s Milali, said that the relief was only temporary as the tariff shock remains "very significant." The dollar has edged up against a basket currency. Gold spot fell by 2.12%, to $3,171.20 per ounce. This erased the previous session's gains.
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Gold players maintain their faith despite a trade truce-induced decline
The gold price has fallen by almost 10% since its record high of just over $3,500 an ounce, in April. However, analysts remain bullish due to the strong support that is underlying for this metal. On Friday, spot gold prices were trading at around $3,180 per ounce, putting them on course for their worst six-month period. The U.S. & China reached a truce on the harsh tit for tat tariffs that they announced in April. This triggered a rise in risk sentiment, and a decline in the demand for safe haven assets like gold. Gold's appeal was also dented by the dollar index and benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, which rose in response to this news. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that the United States were close to a nuclear agreement with Iran. Ricardo Evangelista is a senior analyst with brokerage firm ActivTrades. He said: "We are seeing a less volatile geopolitical climate globally, and less trade aggressiveness from the U.S. This is driving investors away from safe havens like gold, and increasing risk appetite on the market." However, there is still a lot of risk and uncertainty. It's still too early to predict the end of gold prices. Gold has risen 21% this year, after a 27% rise in 2024. Nitesh Sha, commodities strategist for WisdomTree, said that gold prices will likely rise rather than fall in the future due to other factors such as central bank demand. Data from the World Gold Council last week showed that the inflow of physical gold ETFs in April was at its highest level since March 2022. China-listed funds led the way. Official data released by the People's Bank of China earlier this month showed that China's central banks added gold to their reserves for the sixth consecutive month. Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank. He said: "I wouldn't surprise if data indicate that this gold correction we've been seeing right now was cushioned by new and continuing central bank demand." "We must see economic data to confirm that tariffs are having a negative effect on the economy. This will not only increase pressure on the Fed, which is a positive thing. Hansen said that it may also lead a new demand for gold as a safe haven. Data released on Thursday revealed a slowdown of the U.S., the largest economy in the world, in April. This included a drop in the producer prices and manufacturing output as well as a decrease in retail sales. The markets expect the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year at least, starting in September. Gold that does not yield tends to do well in low-rate environments. The U.S. Dollar is expected to weaken and central banks are still buying gold, according to UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
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Gold on course for its worst week since November as trade tensions cool
The gold price dropped by more than 2% Friday, and was set to have its worst week since November as a result of increased risk appetite due to the U.S. China trade agreement. Gold spot fell by 1.7%, to $3.185.87 per ounce at 1007 ET (14.07 GMT), and has fallen 4.2% this week. Prices reached a new record of $3,500.05 last month amid increased tariff tensions. U.S. Gold Futures fell 1.2% to $3188.70. The thawing out of the U.S. - China trade war has rekindled risk appetite in the broader market. This shift has caused profit-taking by futures traders in the gold market and triggered a wave of liquidation lasting a week, according to Jim Wycoff. Washington and Beijing announced earlier this week a 90-day break while they worked out the details of ending their titt-for-tat trading war. The U.S. announced that it would reduce "de minimis fees" on smaller shipments coming from China. After a period of uncertainty, Wall Street's main three indexes have opened higher this Friday. Bullion is a hedge for economic and geopolitical instability. Bullion tends to perform well in an environment with low interest rates. In the United States, the recent data on inflation, coupled with economic data that was weaker than expected, has fueled bets for more Federal Reserve rate reductions this year. The markets expect that the U.S. Central bank will implement two rate reductions, starting in September. Spot silver fell 1.3%, to $32.27 per ounce. It also dropped over 1% in the past week. Wycoff said, "It appears to me that silver's price could rise if the bull market in gold continues." Palladium slipped 0.3% and platinum 0.6%, respectively. Both metals are also expected to decline by a similar amount each week. (Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber)
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Andy Home: Copper's US tariff is crushed by a wave of imports
The threat of a tariff by U.S. president Donald Trump on imports of copper has caused a massive relocation of metals, flooding the U.S. and draining other markets. Since the Trump administration announced a Section 232 investigation in February into U.S. Imports of the Red Metal, traders have been rushing metal into the country in order to lock in a possible tariff windfall. The physical reaction has been so strong that it has caused futures arbitrage to collapse between the CME Contract and the London Metal Exchange Price (LME). WAITING FOR TRUMP The copper market is betting on a 25% U.S. import tariff, which will match the existing rates for steel and aluminum. Tariff trade is evident in the premium that the CME contract for U.S. products cleared by customs commands over the LME international price. Three weeks ago, the cash premium was around $1,600 per ton. This is 17% higher than the LME price. Since then, it has fallen to just $600 per metric ton or 6% of London's price. The timing of tariffs is still uncertain, but it's not like anyone hasn't expected them. Section 232 investigations have a 270 day deadline. White House officials, however, promised a resolution "in Trump time" - whatever that may mean. The price differential between the U.S. & Europe is being narrowed by the volume of metals arriving in the U.S. METAL ON MOVE Morgan Stanley analysts report that U.S. imports have increased to 40,000 tonnes per week from 14,000 tonnes per week in late March. Metals have been flooding into CME's warehouses for the past two years, with most of them arriving in New Orleans. CME's copper stock has increased by 81% from the beginning of the year, and now stands at a record high of 168.563 short tons. CME spreads are in contango unlike those of the LME where the benchmark cash to three-months is spread. As stocks decline, the backwardation has been shifted to $30 per ton. LME copper inventories have fallen to an all-time low of 179.375 tons. 40% of the remaining inventory is awaiting physical loading. The raid on LME stock has focused on copper, which can be delivered in exchange for CME contracts or traded with consumers to get CME brands. The LME stock is now largely made up of Russian and Chinese brands. At the end of April, they accounted for 98% the 129.200 tons of warranted inventories. The U.S. trade war has reached China. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have fallen from their Lunar New Year peak of 268,337 tones to 108.142 tons. China's refined copper imports fell by 5% year-overyear and 20% quarter-overquarter in the period January-March as the metal was diverted to America. SCRAP FLOWS SLOW The impact of the U.S. tariff on copper scrap has compounded the regional imbalances. China was the primary destination of U.S. copper shipments, importing 441,000 tons in 2013. The trade has halted due to the uncertainty surrounding both a tariff on copper and the larger reciprocal tariff situation. The U.S. has a growing mountain of refined steel, and a surplus of copper that is recyclable. If the trade dispute between the two parties can be de-escalated, then it is likely that some of these materials will become available after 90 days. Picture Distorted The global copper exchange inventory has not changed much in the past year. Stocks are hovering at around 500,000 tons, down only 1,700 tonnes from the beginning of January. There has been a massive redistribution from around the world of metals to the U.S. This process will continue until the Trump Administration decides whether or not to impose an import tariff on copper and what level. The CME-LME arbitration should theoretically stabilize at the announced rate of tariff, but it's clear that this won't happen overnight due to the increasing volume of inventory on the U.S. side of the trade. The higher the U.S. Copper Mountain will grow the longer the White House takes to decide. These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.
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Von der Leyen: EU preparing new sanctions to increase pressure against Russia
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the EU Commission, said that the European Union was working on a package of new sanctions to increase pressure against Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding his war in Ukraine. Under pressure from U.S. president Donald Trump, the European Political Community Summit (which includes non-EU nations) convened in Tirana, Albania's capital, while Russian and Ukrainian negotiators gathered in Istanbul to hold their first direct talks on peace in over three years. The EU has adopted 17 sanctions against Russia, the latest this week. Diplomats report that it is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve the required unanimity within the 27 member states of the EU to pass new measures. Von der Leyen, speaking of Putin, said that we needed to put more pressure on him. We are currently working on a new set of sanctions. The main elements of this package include, for example: a prohibition on Nord Stream, further listing of the shadow fleet, a lower cap on crude oil prices and more sanctions against the Russian financial sector. Gazprom, the state-owned Russian company, built Nord Stream 1 & Nord Stream 2 consisting of each two pipes to transport natural gas under the Baltic Sea to Germany. In 2022, they were damaged by a series blasts. Officials and diplomats said that to be successful, the new major sanctions threatened by European leaders in the last few days will need U.S. backing. Putin suggested direct talks with Ukraine on Sunday in Turkey. However, he rejected the challenge of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who wanted to meet personally. Instead, he sent a team consisting of middle-ranking officials. Zelenskiy, speaking to other European leaders at the Tirana summit, said that Ukraine's top priority during the Istanbul talks is to achieve an unconditional ceasefire in order to establish a foundation for future negotiations on a peace agreement. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that Putin "made an error by sending a delegation of low level". Keir starmer, British Prime Minister, said that "what we saw yesterday and over night is yet another evidence that Putin does not care about peace" as he arrived to the Tirana Summit. Starmer stated that Ukraine's allies should act as one, a sentiment shared by many leaders present at the summit. Starmer stated that "we'll work on that again today in order to make it clear that a ceasefire must occur, but that if there is no ceasefire then we will all act together to impose sanctions." Friedrich Merz, the new German chancellor, has said that Europe needs to increase its defense capabilities and that it must work with the United States in order to put an end to the war in Ukraine. Merz stated, "We must do everything we can to keep Americans on our side." We cannot replace or substitute what the Americans do for us in our continent. Reporting by Andrew Gray in Tirana and Fatos bytyci Additional reporting by Benoit van Overstraeten Ingrid Melander Bart Meijer William James and Julia Payne Editing and writing by Alex Richardson, Frances Kerry and Frances Kerry
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Why Trump's Gulf trillions aren't as big as the headlines
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, concluded his Gulf tour Friday after securing what the White House claims is more than $2 trillion in combined deals for the U.S. It is not clear how that number was arrived at. A total of $700 billion is calculated by adding up all the deals that were announced. Deal inflation is common on major visits, even for a president who prides himself in being an expert at making deals. The trip included large orders for Boeing planes, contracts to purchase U.S. defense equipment, agreements on data and technology, and other contracts. Experts in finance and diplomacy say that the headline numbers have been exaggerated to show the extent of the cooperation between the two sides. According to an analysis, many of the agreements signed by Trump during his Gulf tour were non-binding memos of understanding. According to 'calculations, the total value of defence sales with Saudi Arabia and Qatar is close to $730 Billion. It is impossible to independently verify if additional agreements have been signed without public disclosure. Justin Alexander, Director at Khalij Economic, said: "The figures are inflated. Possible spending is counted in as actual. And most of the good deals would have been made regardless of who was the White House." According to the Arab Gulf States Institute, Trump claimed that Saudi Arabia agreed to $450 Billion in deals during his first term. However, actual trade and investments flows between 2017 and 2020 amounted less than $300 Billion. "DEALMAKER in Chief" When asked about the figures, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly replied: "President Trump, the Dealmaker in chief, is a great news story for American workers and companies." The President is quickly fulfilling his promise to Make America Wealthy and Strong Again. Saudi and UAE officials didn't immediately respond to our requests for more information. Memorandums are less formal and don't always result in cash transactions. Saudi Aramco announced, for instance, that it had signed 34 agreements with U.S. firms worth up to $90.00 billion in AI infrastructure, among other areas. Most of the deals were not binding MoUs, and had no value attached. Aramco had announced its agreement to purchase 1.2 million tonnes per year of LNG from NextDecade for a period of 20 years months before, but it was still included on Wednesday's list. The White House stated that agreements signed with Qatar Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani will "generate economic exchanges worth at least $1.2 billion", including a $96-billion sale to Qatar Airways. It did not provide a detailed breakdown Qatari official says that Qatar's sovereign fund has made an "economic commitment" to invest $500 Billion in the U.S. Economy over the next ten years. However, this pledge does not include any concrete plans. Firas Macksad is the managing director of Eurasia Group. He said that if history is any guide, deals which have not delivered a real return will be abandoned after they have served their political purposes. Washington has signed a $142bn arms deal with Saudi Arabia, which covers purchases by more than 12 U.S. firms, and what Trump called a $42bn defence agreement with Qatar. During his first presidential term, Trump announced an arms sale of about $110 billion during his trip to Saudi Arabia. These deals are difficult to track because they last for many years. In 2018, only $14,5 billion in sales had been made, and Congress began questioning the deals after the murder of Saudi Journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Beyond the Numbers The news, despite the vagueness in the timelines and commitments, has helped some stocks on the market. Deutsche Bank attributes a 4.16 percent increase in Nvidia shares on Wednesday to a MoU announced by Saudi Arabia's state oil giant Aramco. There were also new, concrete deals made by U.S. firms. Qatar Airways has placed an order worth $96 billion for 160 Boeing aircraft with GE Aerospace engine. Etihad Airways in Abu Dhabi will spend $14.5billion to purchase 28 Boeing jetliners with GE Aerospace engines. Boeing's shares rose 0.64% after the Doha announcement on Wednesday. The real benefits of Trump's trip go beyond the numbers. The three Gulf states have also secured U.S. backing for issues they consider important. Saudi Arabia has moved closer to achieving its long-held ambition to develop a nuclear industry for civil use. Trump delinked normalisation of relations with Israel from the Saudi Arabian government's desire to do so. This is a significant win for Saudi Arabia. The UAE signed a framework which puts it on the path to acquiring advanced semiconductors in order to fulfill its long-held ambition to be a leader in AI. Qatar was assured by Trump that the U.S. will protect it in case of an attack. Hasan Alhasan is senior fellow for Middle East Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The Gulf States are completing unprecedented deals in business and arms sales, and taking their bilateral relations to a new level.
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Gold drops, heading for the worst week in six-months on easing trade tensions
Gold prices fell more than 2% Friday, and are heading towards their worst six-month period in recent memory. An overall stronger dollar and an interim U.S. China trade agreement have weakened investor demand for this safe-haven. As of 1136 GMT, spot gold was down by 1.9% at $3,178.06 per ounce. Bullion is down more than 4% this week, and it's on track to have its worst performance weekly since November 2024. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 1.4% to $3.180.90. Nitesh Sha, commodities strategist for WisdomTree, said: "We have had a week of positive signals regarding trade negotiations, and we've seen the dollar increase on its course. This is weighing down on gold prices." The U.S., China and other countries agreed earlier this week to temporarily reduce the high tariffs that were imposed on April. This agreement lifted the mood of the financial markets. Gold is less appealing to other currency holders because the dollar index has been subdued for the day but is on track for its fourth consecutive weekly gain. Last month, gold, which is often used to store value in times of financial and political uncertainty, reached a record high of $3.500.05 per ounce, thanks to central bank purchases, fears of tariff wars, and strong demand for investment. This week, the United States economic data and signs of a slowing inflation along with weaker than expected economic data have cemented the bets that more Federal Reserve rate reductions will occur this year. Gold that does not yield tends to flourish in an environment with low rates. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said, "On the positive side, the gold price continues to attract buyers. This shows that precious metals remain a preferred asset. The global growth and inflation forecasts are still rather murky." Silver spot fell 1.8% at $32.08 per ounce. Platinum eased by 0.5% to $985.1, and palladium dropped 1% to $858.24.
CORRECTED (OFFICIAL)- Vietnam could enable companies to import gold for very first time in years, market authorities says
Vietnam could permit companies to import gold for the first time in over a decade, as it aims to bridge the expanding space in between regional prices and worldwide benchmarks, an industry authorities informed .
The Vietnam Gold Traders Association (VGTA) has remained in drawn-out talks with the government over procedures to correct the imbalance in supply and need of gold, Huynh Trung Khanh, the association's vice chair said.
Vietnam's government virtually took full control of imports and regional bullion sales in 2012, with specific big business permitted to import the precious metal provided they repurposed it as jewellery for export.
We hope that by July they will enable gold business to import straight, Khanh said on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Precious Metals conference, referring to the raw material for jewellery manufacturing.
He included that this will go through State Bank of Vietnam's decision on a petition sent by the association relating to future modifications in gold management policy.
It would mark a substantial departure from the current policy, under which the central bank tightly manages imports. The State Bank of Vietnam did not respond to a request looking for remark.
Attempts to narrow the gap with worldwide benchmarks by holding auctions and permitting four local banks to offer gold in a. bid to increase liquidity have actually mostly stopped working to have a. continual impact, with domestic costs still trading at. stubbornly high premiums to worldwide prices.
Right away minimizing premiums on domestic costs is important,. as VGTA estimates Vietnam's gold need will surge this year. The southeast country is among the top 10 consumers of gold.
Gold purchases are set to rise 10% on a yearly basis to 33. tonnes throughout the very first six months of this year, Khanh said in. his presentation at the conference.
Retail buyers, who see gold as a wealth preservation tool. to defend against economic uncertainty, account for a lion's. share of the purchases in the south east Asian economy, home to. about 100 million individuals.
The key factors for this strong retail investment demand. were the sharp decrease in conserving rates of interest, the frozen. realty and the continuous devaluation of the national. currency versus the U.S. dollar, Khanh said.
We have actually had people queuing in the streets, in the sun and. rain to purchase more gold.
A sharp surge in demand for gold has also cause increased. smuggling, especially from neighbouring Cambodia, Khanh said,. adding that it made instant policy action crucial.
It is a huge underground system network. With such a. huge price hike, the rate of smuggling is still high.
The VGTA and the World Gold Council, a worldwide industry body,. are presently dealing with the Vietnamese central bank and other. government companies to set-up a nationwide gold exchange, a relocation. it thinks would provide more market stability.
(source: Reuters)