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Copper's record perform at danger as US shipments calm speculator frenzy

Copper's lightning rally to record highs might not be sustainable in the coming weeks, with action focused on the delivery of material to cover exposed brief positions in the U.S. Comex futures market rather than lukewarm need in leading customer China.

Costs on the CME Group's Comex hit a record last week, while benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME). soared on Monday to an all-time peak of $11,104.50 a metric. load, having surged 28% up until now this year.

Analysts say copper's long-lasting fundamentals are strong,. with a bullish outlook attached to firm need in coming years. for applications consisting of the global tidy energy transition. and greater use of artificial intelligence (AI).

That is set against constrained supply, triggering a race. among miners for high quality projects.

The present run higher appears to be on shaky ground,. inspired by heavy speculative activity and a dash to cover. big brief positions - which can be bets on lower rates, or. manufacturers hedging their output - taken by traders.

A minimum of 100,000 metric lots of copper are en route to the. U.S. CME exchange, two sources with direct knowledge told. on Monday, which will go an excellent way to permit parties to. provide against bearish positions and take the heat out of the. market.

At the minute, it's pure speculative instead of genuine. need, said Robert Montefusco at broker Sucden Financial.

Everything depends on whether that demand ends up being real, since. once the specs are out, it'll simply fall away.

On Comex, there was an overall net brief position of 7,525. agreements or 85,334 heaps, information showed on Friday.

There was a big difference nevertheless between the net long. position of speculators at 72,785 agreements (825,382 lots) and. the net short position by producers of 91,502 agreements (1.04. million heaps).

DELIVERIES FROM SOUTH AMERICA

Sources have told that product traders consisting of. Trafigura and IXM, in addition to Chinese copper manufacturers, are. amongst those captured in a short squeeze on Comex.

Many of those shorts have arranged for copper shipments to. the U.S., from manufacturers in Chile and Peru, re-directed vessels. that had been headed to China on long-lasting agreements, and some. copper withdrawn from LME warehouses.

More than 20,000 lots from Chile are expected to arrive in. the U.S. by the end of May, with larger volumes lined up to land. in June and July, 2 manufacturer sources said.

The transfer of copper from LME-registered storage facilities to. Comex however could be limited. Chinese and Russian copper,. representing 67% of LME stocks, are not eligible for Comex. shipment.

There are 17,250 tonnes of copper produced in Chile, Peru. and Australia which are U.S. duty-exempt and were in the LME. system at the end of April, exchange information revealed.

CHINESE CUSTOMERS, SMELTERS HOLD BACK

Usage in China, which accounts for about half of. international copper demand, is lacklustre due to a distressed residential or commercial property. sector and commercial consumers that are baulking at record. prices.

China on Friday announced historical steps to stabilise its. crisis-hit residential or commercial property sector, but it will take some time for a sector. that is generally a big consumer of commercial metals to rebound.

For the time being, signals are dismal, with the Yangshan. copper premium << SMM-CUYP-CN >, which shows demand for copper. imported into China, hovering at absolutely no after sinking to unfavorable. $ 5 a lot last week, compared with $60 in March.

Given substantial monetary length in copper and persisting. slack Chinese fundamentals for the time being, we think there. stays the danger that financiers lose some patience with the. story, JPMorgan experts stated in a note on Monday.

In our view, this might eventually be an extremely healthy. correction that acts to begin Chinese demand out of its. stupor.

Much prospective Chinese need is on hold and might start. at lower costs, JPMorgan included.

Investors and experts are still bullish for the medium and. long term due to rising international demand and disturbances to mine. supply.

(source: Reuters)