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LME suspends brand-new Russian metal deliveries after sanctions: Andy Home

The London Metal Exchange ( LME) has suspended the warranting of Russian metal produced on or after April 13 to abide by the current sanctions bundles announced on Friday by the U.S. and British federal governments.

Aluminium, copper and nickel increased higher in early Monday trading, showing the value of Russian supply to all 3 markets.

However, the sanctions have been thoroughly developed to reduce market turbulence.

The April 13 cut-off point implies that Russian metal already in the LME system can continue to be traded, which is especially significant for aluminium because Russian brand names represented over 90% of required stocks at the end of March.

Rather, the ban on brand-new metal shipments to the LME and its U.S. equivalent the CME is most likely to divide the market for Russian metal with the exchange basis cost moving to a premium over what is now non-exchange deliverable metal.

RUSSIAN STOCKS

Russian brands of aluminium have represented over 90% of LME required stocks because the end of December.

Although many Western metal users have actually decided to self-sanction by declining to utilize Russian metal, it is clear there is still an active worldwide market for aluminium produced by Russian manufacturer Rusal.

Russian metal comprised 58% of all the aluminium delivered out of LME warehouses in January, the ratio increasing to 94% in February and 88% in March, according to the LME.

The amount of Russia copper and nickel in the LME system at the end of March was lower at 62% and 37% respectively.

Copper market dynamics are much tighter than those of aluminium. Exchange inventory is lower and China, the world's. largest purchaser, appears rather happy to take in Russian metal. Imports of Russian copper rose by 14% to 371,000 metric heaps in. 2023.

Nickel is globally over-supplied however the market for the. Class I metal produced by Russia's Norilsk Nickel and traded on. the LME has been much tighter than that for Class II forms of. the metal such as ferronickel and nickel pig iron. Just like. copper, exchange inventory is lower and characterised by active. two-way movement.

While the U.S. and UK federal governments have actually prohibited all imports of. Russian aluminium, copper and nickel, the current sanctions still. allow for physical market trading in other areas and, in the. case of metal produced before April 13, exchange trading and. physical shipment, albeit with constraints on citizens of both. countries.

SPLIT MARKET

That raises the possibility of large shipments of Russian. metal onto LME warrant as holders of off-market product. produced prior to April 13 play it safe and decide to deliver that. metal to exchange.

It is possible that a reasonably large supply of Relevant. Metal may be called for (...) as a securing relocation, the LME. stated in a notification to members.

Off-market stocks of aluminium, defined by the LME as metal. that is being kept under a warehousing contract with an. specific choice of warranting, stood at 734,000 loads at the end. of February.

The quantity of Russian metal because shadow stock is unknown. But given that Russian metal is still being delivered routinely. out of LME storage facilities for physical delivery to the supply chain,. the LME anticipates that a sufficiently broad set of market. participants will be able to use such metal, the LME stated.

Undoubtedly, the design of the new sanctions package might really. benefit the LME, which has resisted calls unilaterally to ban. Russian metal from its system.

Advocates of such a move have argued that enabling Russian. metal to trade easily on the exchange threats debasing the LME. rate, which will wind up showing metal that is the least. desired by the physical supply chain.

The LME's issue has actually been that simply eliminating all Russian. metal as deliverable metal could develop a liquidity crisis for. the LME aluminium contract.

Such fears have been mitigated by allowing metal produced. prior to April 13 to stay part of the LME's physical liquidity. base.

Furthermore, by creating a new pool of non-deliverable Russian. metal, the logical outcome is for newly-produced metal to trade. at a discount to the LME price, successfully strengthening the. credibility of the exchange basis rate.

Thus, the sanctions can act to depress Russian metal. manufacturers' earnings from brand-new production whilst avoiding a. shipment default by LME brief position holders not able to deliver. older Russian metal against their positions.

UNCERTAINTY

All 3 affected metals jumped higher in early Monday. trading. LME three-month aluminium surged to a near two-year. high of $2,728 per heap. Copper, which was already in full bull. rally mode, extended its gains to $9,640.50, the greatest price. given that June 2022. Nickel made it as far as $19,355, a level last. sold October 2023.

In all three cases the preliminary knee-jerk response has. promptly gone into reverse as the market considers the capacity. for a period of quick stocks rises as older Russian metal moves. out of the storage shadows into LME storage facilities.

There may be more surprises ahead as trade streams adapt to. the brand-new regular however for the LME the new sanctions bring some. welcome clearness to a problem that had polarised the exchange's. user base.

The opinions revealed here are those of the author, a. columnist

(source: Reuters)