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Gold's record rally falters when bulls are confronted with Fed rate expectations and a stronger dollar

The expectation of U.S. tightening of monetary policy and the strength in the dollar has taken some wind out?of a "perfect storm" that was driving an upswing?in gold prices since 2023. Prices are now vulnerable?around $4,000/ounce, as interest rates unfold.

Gold's reversal raised questions about the durability of its record-breaking rally, even though geopolitical risks, fiscal deficits, and central bank purchases continue to support bullion in the long-term.

The spot gold price has dropped 25% after hitting a record of $5,595 back in January. This is because the Iran War sparked a rally in oil prices and increased bets for rate hikes. This has reduced the appeal of gold as a safe haven -- similar to past extreme shocks. Prices fell to a 6-month low on Friday.

Aakash Doshi is the head of metals and gold strategy at State Street Investment Management.

Doshi believes that gold could bounce back if the Middle East conflict eases, and oil drops to $80 per barrel. Gold could become a safe haven in the long term as fiscal deficits increase and geopolitics fragments due to the Iran conflict.

KEY TECHNICAL BREAK

Gold was at $4.188 per troy-ounce on Friday, after reaching its lowest level in November at $4.022 on Thursday.

The strong U.S. job data released last week boosted rate-hike betting and sent gold below the 200-day moving median for the first two-and-a-half-year period.

One precious metals trader believes that the dynamics of the market have changed. This closely watched technical level, which is now acting as a resistance at $4.446, suggests a change in the market's dynamic. In 2025, gold surged by 64%. This was the highest in 46 years.

Investors sought to reduce risks associated with U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and Federal Reserve independence, as well as the war in Ukraine and Russia.

Adrian Ash, BullionVault's head of research, said that analysts had been focusing on Trump's world disorder but it seems now that the huge gains last year were driven in part by expectations for rate cuts.

According to Ash, managed short positions on COMEX Gold were at their lowest level since January 2025 during the week ending June 2. This leaves plenty of room for bearish bets.

Standard Chartered's analyst?Suki cooper estimates that 270 tons or more of gold held in exchange traded funds is in a loss-making situation at prices under $4,250.

At $4,000 that number will increase to 298 tonnes. Outflows from ETFs that are gold-backed totaled 16 tons in May and 7 tons during the first week in June.

In India, the physical demand for gold is sluggish due to seasonal factors. Bullion trades at a significant discount.

Nicky Shiels is the head of metals strategies at MKS PAMP. He expects that gold prices will be rangebound in the coming months, "until more strategic tailwinds or catalysts emerge".

(source: Reuters)