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Gold rises on the back of a weaker dollar as US-Iran hopes for peace deal rise
Gold prices rose Thursday as investors became more optimistic about the potential of an end to the Middle East conflict, which had stoked inflation fears. By 0455 GMT, spot gold had risen 0.9% to $4.830.82 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery gained 0.6%, to $4.853.40. The U.S. dollar fell to its lowest level in six weeks, making ?greenback-denominated commodities, including bullion, more affordable for holders of other currencies. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rates eased by 0.1% as hopes of a U.S. Iran peace deal eased bets on higher U.S. rate for longer. The primary driver of gold is?the optimism that a U.S./Iran ceasefire will push down global bond yields and create a lower 'opportunity costs of holding gold and Silver,' said Kelvin Wong. If we begin to see a break over $4,900 then further upside potential cannot be ruled in towards the next resistance zone at the psychological level $5,000. The optimism grew as a major Pakistani mediator was in Tehran, and President Donald Trump's administration talked up the hopes of a deal which would?open up the Strait of Hormuz. A senior Israeli official said that Israel's cabinet had met on Wednesday, six weeks after its war against Iran-backed Hezbollah, to discuss the possibility of a ceasefire in Lebanon. Since the Iran War began late in February, spot gold prices have dropped a whopping 8% amid fears that rising energy costs could fuel inflation and keep global interest rates high. Gold is considered to be a "hedging against inflation", but higher interest rates are affecting the metal's popularity. The traders in the U.S. now expect a 29% chance of a 25 basis-point cut to interest rates this year. There were two expected reductions in interest rates for this year before the war. Other metals rose as well: Spot silver increased by 2%, to $80.61 an ounce; platinum rose 1.6%, to $2,143.08; and palladium rose 1.4%, to $1,592.84. (Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Harikrishnan Nair)
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Malaysian Petronas will supply excess fuel to Australia, as leaders pledge closer energy relations
Anwar Ibrahim, Malaysia's Prime Minister, said on Thursday that the state energy company Petronas is a major concern. The 'two 'countries would prioritise supplying Australia with their excess fuel supplies as they sought to boost energy security after the Middle East conflict. Anwar claimed to have received an assurance on the issue from Petronas following his discussions with Anthony Albanese, his Australian counterpart on increasing agricultural and fuel trade. Anwar said at a Press Conference after the meeting in Malaysia's administrative Capital Putrajaya, "The priority is domestic requirements... But here is where negotiation among friends is critical." Anwar said that Malaysia also needs mineral phosphates, which they could exchange for the urea Canberra provides. Albanese is in Malaysia for the third time in Southeast Asia this week. He has already been to Singapore and Brunei. Canberra wants to ensure that food and energy are available. Albanese stated that his government secured 100 million additional litres from two shipments - one from Brunei, and the other from South Korea. Export Finance Australia, with the help of the government, has helped secure the first of many shipments that are expected to be secured. Albanese also said that Australia would honour its existing contracts with Malaysia despite any disruptions. Australia is one of the major suppliers of natural gas to Malaysia. The country imports around 20% of its own domestic supply. It also provides wheat, lamb, and beef products. Anwar and Albanese witnessed the signing of the'memorandum of agreement' between the two countries regarding halal trade. The Australian leader said that this deal would help boost Malaysia's red meat exports, and also support its 'food security'. Malaysia, a majority-Muslim country, is considered a leader in the world of halal processing because it has established certification standards.
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Russell: China added crude oil to its massive stocks in March. But the outlook has changed.
China built the largest crude oil stockpile in the world during March, even as the rest of the world began to use up its inventories to make up for the millions of barrels lost due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to calculations based off official data, China, the largest crude importer in the world, had a surplus of 1,74 million barrels a day (bpd). China's excess crude for the first quarter was 1,41 million bpd. This is down from the?record-high of 2.67 millions bpd set in December, but it is up from the 2025 average of 1.13million bpd. China does not reveal the volume of crude oil flowing in or out of strategic and commercial stocks, but it can be estimated by subtracting the amount processed from total crude produced domestically and imported. Not all of the excess crude is likely to have gone into storage. Some was processed in plants that are not included in the official data. Even if you ignore these gaps, the fact remains that China imported crude oil at a rate far greater than was necessary to meet its domestic fuel needs. In March, China imported 11.77 million barrels per day of crude oil while its domestic production was 4.49 million barrels per day. Refinery processing reached 14.52 million barrels per day, leaving an excess of 1.74 millions barrels per day for storage. China's crude oil stockpiles continued to grow in March, despite the fact that imports were not affected by the conflict?in the Middle East. The conflict began on February 28, when Israel and the United States launched an aerial attack against Iran. Oil delivered to China before the start of the conflict would have left the Strait of Hormuz, but imports from April will likely be affected. It is important to ask how China will respond to the lower crude imports that are expected to begin in April. These may be further restricted if the U.S. The military will be able to carry out President Donald Trump's order to blockade Iranian ports. Kpler, a commodity analyst, estimates that China's seaborne oil imports for April were 8.7 million barrels per day. While this number is likely to rise as more cargoes arrive before the month's end, arrivals are likely to be at their lowest level since August 2022, when 7.97 million barrels per day arrived. Options If it wants to maintain domestic refinery rates at current levels, China can use some of its vast crude oil stockpile. Beijing has not revealed the exact number of commercial and strategic stocks, but analysts estimate that at least 1.2 million barrels are in these inventories. It would take two years to exhaust the stockpile if China released up to 2,000,000 bpd from reserves to maintain refinery output. It is clear that this is an extreme situation, but the truth is that crude oil flow from the Middle East is likely to return at some point to levels similar to those prior to the start of the conflict. China can easily continue to refine fuels and increase the amount of processing that is done, allowing for the export of fuels. Beijing has imposed informal restrictions on this since the beginning of the conflict. Kpler tracked shipments of 524,000 bpd in April. Jet fuel and diesel prices in Asia reached record highs during March due to the loss of refined fuel exports from China. Beijing probably expects the Iran conflict will end within the next few weeks, and the flow of crude oil and other products from the Middle East to resume. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for a long time, China faces increased risks. China can keep its domestic fuel supplies for a long time because it has a large amount of crude oil reserves. However, if Asian neighbours experience shortages or their economies begin to shut down, it won't be long before this will affect China's export industries. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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The Financial Times reports that Repsol, a Spanish oil company, has regained control over Venezuelan oil operations.
The Financial Times reported that the Spanish energy group Repsol was poised to regain operational control of its Venezuelan oil assets and?boost their production after a deal had been signed with the South American Government. FT reported that Repsol could announce the deal as soon as Thursday. According to the report, the agreement will include plans to triple the production of its Venezuelan oil operations within three years. It will also establish a "guaranteed payment" system to avoid the pitfalls that led to previous failures by the capital city 'Caracas to pay up. Could not verify the report immediately. Repsol didn't immediately respond to the request for comment. Venezuela has one of the world's largest oil reserves, but a dilapidated infrastructure. Repsol and Venezuela reached an agreement in 2023 to continue operating their facilities there. Later, the deal expired after the?U.S. The deal lapsed after a revocation of the licences by President Donald Trump. Washington eased sanctions on Venezuela's energy industry after capturing President Nicolas Maduro, in January. It issued general?licences allowing?global companies to operate oil & gas projects in Venezuela.
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Morning Bid Europe-Truce Trades Increase as Trump Touts Israel-Lebanon Talks
Gregor Stuart Hunter gives a look at what the European and global market will be like today. Global equities are setting new records, and the dollar has been falling for a ninth day in a row to its lowest levels since the Iran War began. Traders have increased their bets that the conflict in the Middle East may end soon. In a post posted on Truth Social, U.S. president Donald Trump added to the optimism by saying that direct talks between Israel & Lebanon "will take place tomorrow". The MSCI All-Country World Index rose 0.3%, reaching a new record. Meanwhile, the Nikkei225, the broadest measure of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan, grew 1.2%. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%. Early European trades saw pan-regional futures?up 0.3%. German DAX Futures grew by 0.2%, and FTSE Futures were up by 0.1%. Chinese shares rose 0.9%, and the yuan remained steady in Hong Kong offshore trading after data revealed that Asia's biggest economy grew by 5.0% in the 1st quarter of this year compared to a year ago. This was a surprise for analysts as policymakers prepared themselves for the aftermath of the Iran 'war'. In Taiwan, the AI sector's linchpin, TSMC, will report quarterly earnings on Thursday. A 50% increase in net profit is expected due to the booming demand for advanced chips. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.1% on the currency markets as traders lowered their expectations for a Federal Reserve easing of monetary policies. On Wednesday, President Trump 'threatened' to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell if he did not resign from his separate position on the Board of Governors of the U.S. Central Bank when Powell's term as Fed Chief ends on May 15th. The intensifying'standoff' has disrupted the Fed's normally smooth transfer of power, and raised concerns about its independence. Mark Mobius, 89 years old, died on Wednesday. This marked the end of a era in emerging markets. Even as late as January, the veteran investor was still touting new investment opportunities. He speculated that Nicolas Maduro’s ouster would lead to Venezuela opening to investors. On Thursday, key developments that may influence the markets include: Earnings of corporations TSMC, Netflix, PepsiCo, Tesco, Schroders Economic Events UK:?GDP estimates, services, industrial production, manufacturing output, and goods trade balance for Feb. Euro zone: final HICP for the month of March Debt auctions: France: Government debts of 3, 5, 6, 7, 12, 13, 17, and 27 years. UK: 23-year government debt
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Oil prices remain unchanged despite scepticism about US-Iran peace negotiations to ease Hormuz disruption
On Thursday, oil?prices remained unchanged, reversing previous declines. This was due to skepticism about the peace talks between?the U.S. Brent crude futures rose 9 cents at 0427 GMT to $95.02 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose 44 cents to $91.73 per barrel. Both benchmarks traded with a wide range on Wednesday, but settled little-changed. U.S. and Israeli war with Iran resulted in the biggest ever disruption of oil and gas supply due to Iran's blocking of traffic through the 'Strait of Hormuz', which typically carries around 20% of world oil and liquefied gas flows. Toshitaka Takawa, an analyst with Fujitomi Securities, said that while there is hope for de-escalation many investors remain sceptical. This is because U.S.Iran talks have failed repeatedly, even when they appeared to be making progress. He added that WTI prices will continue to fluctuate between $80 and $100 until a peace deal is reached, allowing free navigation across the Strait. In a note published on Thursday, analysts from ING estimated that the closure of the strait has disrupted oil flow by roughly 13 million barrels a day, taking into account pipeline diverts and the trickle tankers which have passed through. The disruption may increase with the U.S. blocking Iranian ports after the failure of the peace talks at the weekend. The ING analysts stated that "the physical market is tightening every day without a restart of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz". Iran's source told a source that if an agreement was reached in order to avoid a renewed conflict after a two-week truce began on April 8, Iran would consider allowing ships free passage through the Omani side of Strait of Hormuz. U.S. officials and Iranian officials are considering a trip to Pakistan this weekend for more talks. The Pakistani army chief was in Tehran as a mediator on Wednesday to try and prevent a resurgence of the conflict. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Wednesday that Washington would not renew waivers that allowed some Iranian and Russian oil to be purchased without facing U.S. sanction. The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that U.S. inventories for oil, gasoline and distillate fuels dropped last week. This was due to a decline in imports and a rise in exports as countries searched for barrels to replenish the interrupted flows. (Reporting from Yuka Obayashi, in Tokyo and Siyi Lu in Singapore; editing by Lincoln Feast & Christian Schmollinger).
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China's aluminium production increased 2.7% in March due to the Iran war driving prices higher
Official data released on Thursday showed that China's primary aluminum production rose 2.7% from the previous year, as fears of supply due to the Iran conflict boosted prices. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, aluminium?production increased?to 3,85 million metric tonnes in March. The data shows that in the first quarter of this year, China produced 11.41 million metric tonnes of primary aluminum, an increase of 3.1% compared to the previous period. Around 9% of the global supply of aluminium comes from the?Gulf Region. Aluminium prices rose after the 'Iran's move to disrupt traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and a number of major regional producers including Aluminium Bahrain, and Emirates Global Aluminium faced increased risks. In March, the benchmark three-month aluminum price rose 10.41%. This was its best month since 2024. The most active aluminium contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained just over 4 percent in March. Due to price volatility in March, domestic demand for this light metal was low. This led to the stock of aluminium monitored by SHFE reaching a six-year high early in April. Analysts however said that China's export of aluminium is now poised for growth as the Iran War tightened up availability and boosted margins through higher prices. The production of 10 non-ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel, rose by 2.2 % from the previous year to 7.07 metric tons. The year-to-date production was up by?3.6% to 20.53 millions metric tons. Other non-ferrous materials include tin and antimony. Mercury, magnesium, titanium, and mercury are also available.
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China's crude steel production drops in March due to lower margins and falling exports
China's crude output of steel in March fell 6.3% compared to the previous year, the lowest for the month since the middle of 2020. Margins were thinned out and exports dropped amid the Middle East conflict. National Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday that the world's biggest steel producer produced 87.04 metric tons of crude "steel" last month. According to data-based calculations, the March volume represents an average daily output of 2,81 million tonnes, down from 2,99 million tons in March 2020. Steel margins were hit by rising feedstock prices in the first quarter, which was partly due to higher fuel?prices because the Iran War choked shipping via the Strait Of Hormuz. Xin Ge is a deputy director of Lange Steel. He said that the Middle East conflict has caused freight costs to rise, which in turn helped support prices for raw materials, including iron ore. Steel gains, however, were curbed due to high stock levels. Ge said that the squeezed margins had discouraged some steelmakers from increasing production. According to data compiled by Mysteel, an average of 41% of steelmakers will be able to make a profit this March. This compares with 53% in the same time period in 2025. Iron ore prices rose?8.7% last month while steel reinforcing bars, which are typically used in construction, only grew by 2.3%. Steel production was also affected by the weak?demand of the?embattled?property market as China's new-home prices continued to decline in last month. China's steel exports in March fell?by 12.6% on an annual basis, impacted by the Middle East conflict and a?export license regime it implemented as a response to escalating global protectionist sentiment. The World Steel Association cut its forecast on global crude steel demand this year. This is partly because the war in Iran has reduced consumption across the Middle East. The data shows that in the first quarter 2026, Chinese crude-steel output dropped by 4.6% on an annual basis to 247.55 millions tons.
EU agrees to halve steel imports by doubling tariffs
The European Union has reached a preliminary agreement on Monday that will nearly halve steel imports and impose 50% tariffs on any excess shipments in order to protect its steel industry against overproduction elsewhere.
Due to?increased imports and tariffs of 50% imposed by President Donald Trump, EU steel producers operate at only 65% of their capacity. The new measures are designed to increase capacity utilization to 80%.
Representatives of the European Parliament and the Council, which represents the EU governments, decided late on Monday that tariff-free imports would be limited to 18,3 million metric tonnes?per annum, a reduction of 47% compared to 2024. The out-of-quota duty will also double.
In the past year, steel imports from Turkey, South Korea and Indonesia were the main sources.
EU steel is currently protected under safeguards that were put in place by Trump during his first term. These include import quotas with 25% tariffs on any goods above these limits. Under World Trade Organization rules however, they must expire eight years later - June 30.
The European Commission, who proposed new measures in November, stated that the EU "steel industry" has lost around 100,000 jobs since 2008.
The new measures are designed to take into consideration where the imported steel was melted and poured in order to prevent circumvention. They will also be reviewed regularly to ensure they remain effective.
Both parties agreed to eliminate imports of Russian steel as soon as possible, perhaps by September 2028. Last year, 3.7 million tons of steel slabs were imported from Russia into the EU.
For the new measures to come into effect, both the parliament and council will have to vote on the agreement reached Monday.
(source: Reuters)