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Yale report links Russian oil industry to child deportation in Ukraine
Yale University's research claims that the leading Russian state oil companies Rosneft, and Gazprom, supported wartime camps to which more than 2,000 Ukrainian youths were sent. They allegedly provided funds and facilitated transportation, and also provided funding. This led some U.S. legislators to call for sanctions against these two firms. Yale School of Public Health Humanitarian Research Lab (Yale HRL) published the findings last week. They provide the first definitive proof of the companies' involvement in the systematic Russian campaign of deportation of children and indoctrination. It said that with the support of two energy giants approximately 2,158 kids were brought to the camps in Russian occupied Ukraine and Russia from 2022-2025. This included pro-Russian educational programs. Yale's conclusions are based on an analysis of social media posts and corporate records. The report's conclusions could not be independently confirmed. The Russian Foreign Ministry and Ukrainian authorities have not responded to any requests for comment. Gazprom responded to a question about the details of the article by saying: "Gazprom has several health resorts throughout Russia, and Russian children enjoy their summer holidays there." Russia has denied forcibly taking Ukrainian children and claimed that it did so out of humanitarian reasons. The Russian government has dismissed the Yale reports as anti-Russian propaganda. In a letter, lawyers representing Rosneft stated that Yale's investigation failed to uncover any evidence that the company was involved in illegal activities. The report tries to imply that Rosneft is guilty of war crimes without any evidence. Rosneft categorically denied directing, controlling or participating in the alleged conduct," said it. UNION ROLE Yale's report stated that at least 1,072 children who were born in Russia-occupied Ukraine have received vouchers to attend proRussian camps between 2022 and 2023 from Gazprom subsidiaries, trade unions and other organizations. The Interregional Trade Union of Rosneft sponsored 100 Ukrainian children to attend three camps by 2022. The trade union of Rosneft did not reply to a comment request. Rosneft’s lawyers stated that the union is a separate legal entity and independently registered according to Russian law. Yale also claimed that it had not provided any evidence to show Rosneft was "directing, controlling, authorising or even knowing" about the union's alleged behavior. Rosneft says on its website that it "pays particular attention to strengthening the partnership relations system" with trade unions, their subsidiaries and other related organizations. Michael McFaul is a Stanford professor of international affairs who was the U.S. Ambassador to Russia from 2012-2014. He dismissed the idea that Rosneft’s union is independent. "Rosneft" is a Russian government agency. "Putin's dictatorship does not allow independent trade unions," said McFaul who was Senior Director for Russian & Eurasian Affairs at the National Security Council between 2009 and 2012. UNITED STATES RELEASES SANCTIONS In March, the United States announced that they would temporarily lift sanctions on the sale crude oil and petroleum-based products of Russian origin to combat the surge in prices following the war in Iran. The White House has not responded to a comment request. Twelve members of the U.S. Congress, representing both parties, cited Yale’s findings to call for re-imposing sanctions on Gazprom & Rosneft. These sanctions were lifted as part of the waiver. In a letter sent to by Ohio Representative Greg Landsman, it was stated that "the recent revelation of their direct involvement in Russia abducting over 35,000 Ukrainian children is cause for alarm." The letter was sent on Friday to Scott Bessent, Secretary of Treasury, and Marco Rubio, Secretary of State. It called for additional sanctions to be imposed against 35 entities that Yale had identified. RUSSIA REJECTS ICC’S ALLEGATIONS According to international law, any deportation or transfer of children to another country, whether it is an occupying power, or a different country, is a war crimes, no matter what the motivation. Ukraine has also classified this as a crime. Maria Lvova Belova, the Russian Commissioner for Children's Rights, and Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, were accused of committing a war crime by deporting Ukrainian children. The International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for Putin, and Lvova Belova. They are accused of their roles in the atrocities that occurred during the war which began with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Office of the Prosecutor of the ICC did not directly respond to the claims raised in the Yale Report. In a letter, it stated that it continues to receive reports of child deportations. It also said it was entitled to expand cases to include additional suspects "should evidence meet the required standard." The Russian government has denied the allegations of the court. Lvova Belova said at a press conference in April 2023 that she didn't know what the ICC was accusing her of. "Given the facts, we will investigate." It all seems like a farce so far. Yale's new findings come after the university reported in September that Russia expanded its network of camps to include at least 210 facilities for military training, drone production and other forced reeducation of Ukrainian children. Yale reported that children from Ukraine were sent to at least six camps, including three camps owned and operated by Gazprom subsidiaries, in Russia or Crimea. This was as recent as 2025. The Kremlin has not responded to a comment request on this report. (Reporting and editing by Anthony Deutsch)
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Iron ore to suffer second consecutive weekly loss due to high China stocks
Iron ore prices continued to fall on Friday for a second consecutive session. They were also set 'for a second week of declines,' mainly due to the high portside stock levels in a major consumer, China. However, signs of improved demand helped limit this drop. The iron ore contract most traded on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed the daytime trading down 0.5% to 799.5 Yuan ($116.26), posting a week-long fall of 1.5%. As of 0700 GMT the benchmark May iron ore traded on the Singapore Exchange was 0.92% lower, at $105.4 per ton. This represents a 1.7% drop so far this week. Analysts said that the trade was dominated by downward pressure due to high portside stock, but there were no significant changes in supply and demand. Data from Mysteel showed that iron ore inventories at 47 Chinese ports increased 0.5% in a week to 177.5 millions tons on?April 2. This is close to the record high of 180.9 million tons reached?in late March. Concerns that the availability of spot iron ore could increase if China’s state iron buyer and BHP made progress in negotiations regarding a supply contract for 2026 weighed heavily on sentiment. Vietnam's trade ministry reported that prices were also being impacted by a temporary antidumping levy up to 27,83% on certain Chinese hot-rolled steel coil products, starting April 17. The downside was however capped by signs that demand had improved as some mills recommenced production following maintenance. Mysteel data shows that the?average daily metal production, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, increased by?2.7% on a week-on-week basis to 2.37 million tonnes as of April 2, marking its highest level since October 2025. Analysts at the ship-tracking company Kpler say that "the ongoing conflict in Middle East continues to exert indirect pressure by driving up fuel and freight costs." Coking coal and coke, the other ingredients used in steelmaking, also declined by 1.2% and 0.86% respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. Rebar fell 0.23%, while hot-rolled coils dropped 0.24%. Wire rod rose 2.18 percent, and stainless steel gained 0.78%.
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PMI data shows that growth in the UAE's non-oil private sectors slowed to a near-four-year low during March.
A 'business survey' released on Friday showed that the United Arab Emirates non-oil sector expanded at its slowest rate in almost four years in March, as the Middle East conflict impacted demand and disrupted supply chains. The S&P Global UAE Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 52.9 from 55.0 in Feburary, which is the lowest level seen since July 2025. However, it remains in growth territory. The growth in output and new orders slowed down markedly. The output subindex fell to 54.9, the lowest rate of growth since June 20, 21. The demand growth has also slowed, with the subindex of new orders falling to 54.5 in February from 59.5, which marks a'slowest expansion since last August. David Owen, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that anecdotal feedback suggested?that tourism, retail, and logistics sectors were most affected. Segments such as technology, and construction showed a more mellow, but still significant impact. While the war had "taken a toll" on the non-oil sector in general, he said that for many firms the orders books remained resilient and output increased. After the Strait of Hormuz was closed, supplier delivery times increased for the first time since September 2021. Meanwhile, backlogs of works grew at the fastest rate so far this year. The business expectations for the coming 12 months have fallen to their lowest levels in just over five years. The headline PMI in Dubai, which is the business and tourism center of the region, dropped to 53.2, from 54.6. This was the weakest improvement for non-oil businesses in nine months. Hugh Lawson, Editor and Reporter (Reporting)
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Iron ore prices fall for the second consecutive week on high China stock
Iron ore prices continued to fall on Friday for the second consecutive?session. They were also on course for a second weekly drop, due to elevated portside stock levels?in China, their largest consumer. However, signs of improving?demand?helped limit the decline. The most traded iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange has fallen 0.81%, to 797 Yuan ($115.85), a metric tonne, and lost 1.8% this week. As of 0107 GMT the benchmark May iron ore price on the Singapore Exchange was 1.16% lower, at $105.15 per ton. This represents a 2% decline so far this week. Analysts said that the trade was dominated by downward pressure due to high stocks at port, and that the conflict between supply-and-demand remained tame. Data from Mysteel revealed that iron ore inventories at 47 Chinese port cities rose by 0.5% on a weekly basis to 177.5 million tonnes as of April 2. This is close to the record high of 179.47 million tons reached in mid-March. Concerns that the availability of spot iron ore could increase if China’s state iron buyer and BHP made progress in negotiations regarding a 2026 supply contract affected sentiment. The downside was however capped by signs that?demand is improving as some mills have resumed production following equipment maintenance. Mysteel data shows that the average daily hot metal production, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, has risen 2.7% in a week to 2,37 million tons on April 2. This is its highest level since October 2025. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is causing indirect pressure on iron ore prices by increasing freight and fuel costs, according to analysts from ship-tracking company Kpler. Coking coal and coke, the other ingredients used in steelmaking, also declined by?0.98% apiece. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed. Rebar fell 0.26%; hot-rolled coil dropped 0.18%; wire rod grew 1.97%, and stainless steel gained 0.81%. ($1 = 6.8797 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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Trump threatens to strike Iran’s electric power plants and bridges
Donald Trump, the U.S. President, warned late on Thursday that he would destroy bridges and electric power plants across Iran. This was his latest threat of destroying Iran's infrastructure. The U.S. Military "hasn't yet started to destroy what's remaining in Iran." Trump posted on Twitter that he would be focusing his attention next on bridges, followed by electric power plants. In his post, he said that Iran’s leadership "knows" what needs to be done and "has to be done FAST!" Trump, who previously has offered shifting timelines for the war and different objectives, said in a televised address on Wednesday that if Iran refused to 'give in' to Washington, the war would escalate, and possible strikes against its oil and energy infrastructure could be launched. The U.S. government released an open letter on Thursday in which dozens of international law experts said that the U.S.'s strikes against Iran could amount to war crimes. The 1949 Geneva Conventions on Humanitarian Conduct in War prohibits attacks on sites considered vital for civilians. According to the Geneva Conventions and their additional protocols, parties in a military conflict are required to distinguish between "civil objects and military targets" and attacks on civilians are prohibited. "We will hit them very hard over the next two to three week." Trump stated in his Wednesday speech that "we are going to take them back to their Stone Ages where they belong." Trump did not give a timetable for the end of the war, despite his claim that Washington is nearing completion of its goals in Iran. The U.S. and Israel began the war on 28 February when they attacked Iran. Tehran retaliated by launching attacks on Israel and Gulf States with U.S. base. The joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, as well as Israeli attacks in Lebanon, have resulted in the deaths of thousands. The war has also?raised oil prices and shook?global market? Trump's contradictory messages have not helped ease concerns about his country's largest military attack since 2003's invasion of Iraq. Kanishka Singh reported from Washington, Himani Sarkar edited by Raju Gopalakrishnan.
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Aluminium falls on a stronger dollar but is headed for the biggest weekly gain of a month
Aluminum prices fell on Friday as a stronger currency and mounting fears of an economic recession - after fading hopes for a quick 'end' to the Iran War - outweighed supply concerns that kept the metals on course for a week gain. As of 0152 GMT, the most traded aluminium at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.66% to 24,690 yuan (US$3,586.94). This week it has gained 3.2%, which is the largest weekly gain for a month. The London 'Metal Exchange (LME), which is closed for Easter on Friday and Monday, will remain closed. The dollar increased after U.S. president Donald Trump's speech about Iran shattered market expectations of a quick end to the war and rekindled fears of inflation, interest rate increases, and a possible recession. The dollar's strength makes commodities priced in greenbacks less affordable to investors who use other currencies. Prices for the light metal, which is used in construction, packaging, and transport, reached a near four-year high earlier this week. The attacks by Iran on two Middle East aluminium manufacturers heightened fears that the Gulf region, which accounted for 9% of global supply before the war, would suffer a greater'supply loss. The Iranian war has tightened global supply, boosting margins and causing some of the earlier estimates for flat shipments to be revised higher. Other SHFE metals saw a 0.1% drop in copper, a 0.09 percent decline in nickel, a 0.55% decrease for tin, and 1.18% reductions in zinc, while lead increased by 0.18%.
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McGeever: The 'no hire' US economy is exposed by the war in Iran.
The U.S. employment?growth has virtually slowed to a standstill. This was acceptable for policymakers and investors before the Iran war. It shouldn't be so now. Since a while, the labor market has steadily declined, but it has been hidden by a?headline unemployment rate that has risen, but only gradually. It is still low by historical standards at 4.4%. The labor market is stagnant. JOLTS, the closely watched Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released this week, showed that hiring has now reached its lowest level since April 2020. It's possible that hiring will not pick up in the next few months. Bureau of Labor Statistics figures are expected on Friday to show that the U.S. created a total of 60,000 nonfarm jobs in March. This would give a monthly average of around 30,000 in the first three months. The average six-month monthly payroll growth was negative just a few months back. This is not sustainable for the world's largest economy, a $30 trillion juggernaut, with a workforce of 170 million. The increase in incomes leads to an increase in spending, economic activity and, ultimately, growth. Low hiring slows down the flow of tax revenue into the government's coffers. This puts a strain on public finances. BREAKEVEN JOB GROWTH IS NOW AROUND ZERO The fall in "breakeven" employment growth can explain the puzzle of a relatively stable unemployment rate despite evaporating jobs growth. This is the level of employment required to maintain the unemployment rate. According to a Dallas Fed report published this week, three years ago there were around 250,000 new jobs created each month. It has been declining steadily ever since and is now almost zero. This means that the unemployment rate is stable even if the economy barely creates any jobs. Normaly, a slowing of the?demand for employees should be a warning sign that the unemployment rate will soon rise, that the economy has slowed, and the recession risk is increasing. A job growth rate below the estimated breakeven level is a more alarming warning. The labor supply is also decreasing rapidly. This is largely because of the Trump administration’s policy to reduce net immigration. The longer-term impacts are yet to be determined. Currently, however, they are compensating for the decline in hiring. The jobs market might appear stable from the outside if the labor supply and demand is roughly equal, and the unemployment rate has remained relatively stable. It's a bad labor market. No longer so ruthless or confident The fragile labor market is also more susceptible to breaking, which puts the delicate balance at risk. Energy prices are structurally higher and inflation is rising due to the supply shocks caused by the Middle East conflict. These prices will continue to rise at least through the end of this year and possibly beyond. This means that consumers' bills and company costs are likely to increase. Gasoline is over $4 per gallon and oil is above $100 a barrel. Household budgets are under pressure. The financial climate has tightened and businesses have been hampered by rising input costs, such as energy and transportation. Spring and summer season factors are also a hindrance to hiring. The Federal Reserve ?paused its interest-rate-cutting cycle in January, and policymakers seemed more confident that downside risks to the labor market were diminishing. Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, said that artificial intelligence-driven productivity growth could help complement the "low-hire and low-fire" labor dynamics, which he believes will keep inflation under control. This was a common view before the Iran War. The economy is looking less robust, much like the labor market. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Trafigura denies Bolivia's claim of its fuel contract being suspended
Trafigura has not ceased its contracts with Bolivia's oil and gas state company YPFB, a spokesperson for the company said on Thursday. The company was rejecting a claim made by Bolivian Energy Minister Mauricio Medinaceli. Medinaceli announced on Tuesday that Bolivia will suspend its gasoline contracts Trafigura, and with rival trading house Vitol, until the investigation into the alleged smuggling of poor-quality fuel from Chile is completed. Later, on Thursday, YPFB confirmed its main supply contracts are still in effect, ensuring a?continuity of supply. The state-owned company has announced that it has signed an addition to its existing contract with Vitol in order to set stricter limits on gum and manganese. YPFB stated in a press release that the?new quality standards exceed current Bolivian regulation and will be implemented without additional costs to the state. The spokesperson for Trafigura said that the contracts between Trafigura & YPFB did not include the supply of fuel. "Trafigura always fulfilled its contractual obligations and received no complaints or claims from YPFB relating?to product quality or 'any other?? matter. The contracts are still in force and not suspended." Vitol couldn't be reached immediately for comment. Medinaceli announced the decision 'after the government reported that 5,000 tanker truck carrying adulterated gasoline had entered Bolivia through a transnational network of smugglers. It is estimated that $150 million in adulterated gas was moved between October 2025 to March 2026. Reporting by Robert Harvey and Daniel Ramos in London; Editing by Jan Harvey
Aluminium falls on a stronger dollar but records biggest weekly gain of a month
Aluminum fell on Friday as the stronger U.S. Dollar and growing fears of an?economic recession due to?a??prolonged Iran War?outweighed supply concerns that helped the metal record its largest weekly gain in a single month.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded aluminium closed the daytime trading down 0.78%, at 24,660 Yuan ($3,585.92), per metric ton. The contract gained 3% on a weekly basis.
London Metal Exchange (LME), is closed Friday and Monday in observance of the Easter holiday.
Dollar strengthened after U.S. president Donald Trump's speech about Iran. The speech dampened expectations for a quick end to the conflict, reigniting concerns of inflation, rate hikes and a possible recession, which would hinder demand for industrial metals.
The dollar's strength makes commodities priced in other currencies less attractive to investors.
Stocks in Shanghai-monitored warehouses are also increasing, putting pressure on prices.
The price of aluminium, a light metal that is used for packaging, transport and construction, soared this week after Iran attacked two Middle -East producers of the metal. This heightened fears about a possible supply shortage in the Gulf, which accounted for 9% of the global supply prior to the war.
The Iranian war has tightened global supply, boosting margins and some of the earlier forecasts that showed flat shipments have been revised sharply higher.
Copper was the least affected metal, followed by nickel, which fell 0.13%. Tin dropped 0.77%. Zinc slipped 0.61%. Lead added 0.42%.
(source: Reuters)