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GRAINS-Chicago soyabeans fall in anticipation of Middle East ceasefire
Chicago soybean futures declined on Wednesday. They tracked losses in soyoil due to lower crude oil prices, based on reports that the U.S. was seeking a ceasefire of a month for its war against Iran. The price of corn and wheat futures also declined. As of 0325 GMT, the?most active?soybean contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade slipped 0.2% to $11.52-3//4 a bushel. Soyoil dropped 0.8% to 65.21cents per pound. CBOT corn fell 0.7% and wheat dropped 6%, to $4.59-1/2 per bushel. The oil prices fell more than 5% on Wednesday, as a result of reports that the U.S. had sent Iran a plan in 15 points to end their war. Brent crude futures were down $6.21 or 5.9% to $98.28 per barrel at 0058 GMT after falling to as low as $97.57. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $4.67 or 5.1% to $87.68 per barrel after dropping as low as $86.72. The price of grains and oilseeds has tracked crude oil fluctuations during the conflict. This is due to the use corn and soyoil for biofuels, and the interest investors have shown in these crops as a hedge against inflation. Brazil's soya exports to South America in March dropped by 17.9% compared with the average for the entire month of last year. During the rally caused by the Iranian Crisis, the wheat export price in?Russia, a major grain supplier, remained at a level that was 'nearly three weeks highsreached. Analysts have raised their March shipment forecasts due to accelerated exports. The Russian government, which controls up to 40% of global ammonium nitrate trade, announced on Tuesday that it would stop exports for a month, until April 21, in order to ensure a sufficient supply of fertilizer during spring planting season. From disruptions in Gulf shipping to sharply increased gas prices, the impact of the 'war' on fertilizer markets could have knock-on effects for crop production.
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Copper rebounds on softer dollar, Middle East de-escalation hopes
Prices of copper rose on Wednesday as a softer dollar and renewed hope for a deescalation of the Middle East conflict boosted?demand prospects. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract rose by 1.36%, to 95,800 Yuan ($13.916.13) per ton at 0153 GMT. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.49%, to $12281 per tonne. The market sentiment improved significantly after U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that Washington was making progress in its negotiations to end the war with Iran and had won an important concession from Tehran. Analysts at Everbright Futures wrote in a report that the expectation of a de-escalation between the U.S. The U.S. and Iran negotiations are still uncertain. The copper prices in Shanghai and London both?lost some ground on Tuesday, as rising energy prices and a protracted Iran war intensified fears?over inflation? and the global economic growth outlook. The base metals complex also received a boost from a softer dollar, which made commodities priced in dollars cheaper for buyers who used other currencies. SHFE aluminium increased by 0.8%. Nickel?and Lead advanced by 0.55%, while tin rose 3.94% and zinc edged upwards 0.13%. Nickel?rose 1.3 %, lead gained 0.61 %, tin grew 3.03 %, zinc jumped 1.13% and aluminium fell 0.51%.
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Filings show that a Valero refinery explosion and fire were caused by a fluid release.
A release of fluid set off an explosion and ensuing fire ?that forced the temporary shutdown of ?Valero Energy Corp's 380,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) oil refinery ?in ?Port Arthur, Texas, according to a notice the company filed with state pollution regulators on Tuesday. The people reported that no injuries were reported in connection with the explosion of the Unit 243 Diesel Hydrotreater (47 000 bpd) unit. The date for the restart of the refinery has not been announced. Valero filed a notice with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality on Tuesday night stating that an unpredicted release of fluid from Complex 2 caused a?ignition event and multiple process units upsets. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz - a vital waterway for Middle East oil and refined products - in retaliation to U.S. air strikes and Israeli attacks. Donta Miller is the chief deputy of the Jefferson County Sheriff. She said that on Tuesday, there was no proof the explosion, which could be felt up to 11 miles away (18 km), occurred as a result of someone deliberately attempting to damage a refinery. Since Monday, online posts have suggested that the Port Arthur refinery blast was caused by sabotage either by Iranian or Israeli agents. Miller replied, "No we are not looking into it in that way." Sources said that shutting down the refinery would be necessary to put out the fire by cutting off the flammable materials which were feeding it. As firefighters fought the fire, the refinery's water and steam supply was cut off. Diesel hydrotreaters remove sulfur from motor fuels using hydrogen during production in order to comply with U.S. Environmental Rules. The fire was extinguished on Tuesday, and the shelter-in place order issued to west?Port Arthur's residents at 6:20 pm CDT (1120 GMT), on Monday?was lifted just before 6 am CDT, on Tuesday. The TCEQ filed states that the Valero refinery closed its large crude distillation units, gasoline-producing 'fluidic catalytic crackers, diesel-producing 'hydrocrackers, cokers and sulfur re-covery units. Hydrotreaters, reformers, alkylation units, and hydrotreaters. Valero Port Arthur, its largest refinery, is located 86 miles (138 kilometers) east of Houston. (Reporting from Houston by Erwin Seba; Additional reporting in Bengaluru by Ishaan arora and Swati verma; Editing by Susan Fenton and Howard Goller)
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Oil prices fall on prospects of Middle East ceasefire alleviating supply disruption
Prices of oil?dropped more than 5%?Wednesday? on the prospect that a 'possible? ceasefire would ease supply disruptions in the Middle East region, after reports that the U.S. had sent Iran a plan with 15 points to end their war. Brent crude futures dropped $6.21 or 5.9% to $98.28 per barrel at 0058 GMT after falling to $97.57. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $4.67 or 5.1% to $87.68 per barrel after dropping as low as $86.72. Both benchmarks gained nearly 5% Tuesday before paring their gains in volatile trading after the settlement. Hiroyuki KIKUWA, the chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment (a unit of Nissan Securities), said that expectations of a 'ceasefire' have increased slightly, and profit-taking has taken over. He added, "But it remains uncertain whether the negotiations will be successful and limit sales." If fighting resumes and Iran attacks?energy installations in neighbouring nations or if the pressure to close Strait of Hormuz increases, oil prices could surge again, he warned. U.S.?President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that the U.S. is making progress in negotiating an ending to the war with Iran. A source confirmed Washington had sent Iran 15-point proposal for settlement. Israel's Channel 2 reported that the U.S. is seeking a one-month ceasefire in order to discuss the plan. The plan includes dismantling Iran's nuke program, ending support for proxy groups and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency called it the largest oil supply disruption ever. The?Prime Minister of Pakistan said on Tuesday that he would be willing to host discussions between the U.S. Iran has denied any negotiations with the U.S. According to a Tuesday note, Iran told the?United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that "non-hostile ships" could transit the Strait of Hormuz if coordinated with Iranian authorities. Sources said Washington is preparing to send more troops into the region. Shipping data show that to offset the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia's Red Sea Yanbu Port exported oil at a rate of nearly 4 million barrels a day last week. This is compared with exports before war began. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing, Christian Schmollinger and Yuka Obayashi)
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Philippines: Working with Washington for oil from sanctioned U.S. countries
The Philippines' ambassador to the United States stated that it is working closely with Washington in order to securing waivers and exceptions to allow oil to be purchased from sanctioned U.S. countries. This will 'ensure supply. The Philippines, which is heavily dependent on imported fuels, declared on Tuesday a national energy emergency in order to deal with Middle East War fallout, including oil procurement. In a series of phone messages, Jose Manuel Romualdez said: "We're working with the State Department on getting waivers or exemptions for oil purchases from sanctioned U.S. countries." Romualdez responded that "all options" are being considered when asked if Venezuelan oil and Iranian oil were included in the discussions. When asked what the State Department's response was, the ambassador said: "Work is in progress." The government of the Philippines said that as of March 20, it had enough fuel to last the Philippines for 45 days. It is also purchasing 1 million barrels more oil in order to increase its buffer stock. The government was authorized to buy fuel and petroleum products in order to maintain a timely and sufficient supply. Manila temporarily increased its coal-fired production due to 'energy supply' pressures. The United States granted a 30-day waiver to allow the country to import its first Russian crude in five years this week. Washington also announced a 30-day waiver of sanctions for the purchase of Iranian oil that is already in?sea. The waiver is applicable to oil loaded on any vessel including those under sanctions on or before March 20, and discharged on April 19,
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Reports of a ceasefire in the Middle East have caused oil prices to fall and stocks to rise.
On Wednesday, oil prices fell and stocks rose on reports that the U.S. was seeking a ceasefire for one month in its war against?Iran. The U.S. had also sent Iran a 15-point discussion plan, which raised hopes of a possible resumption of?oil exports from the Persian Gulf. S&P 500 futures increased 0.9% on the morning of Asia, European futures?rose 1.2%, and Brent crude?futures fell?about 6% at $98.30 per barrel. In the morning, equity markets in Australia, South Korea and Japan all rose by about 2%. Gold, which investors were selling in order to profit from a long rally rose by 1.6%. The market is trading headlines right now, said Kerry Craig. Global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The tone is positive. "The difficulty now is...there's still uncertainty about what will happen next and whether a ceasefire would be possible." U.S. president Donald Trump stated?on Wednesday that the U.S. is making progress in the negotiations to end the war. This includes winning an important concession by Tehran. A source confirmed Washington had sent Iran a settlement proposal of 15 points. Channel 12 in Israel, citing three sources said that the U.S. wanted a one-month ceasefire for the discussion of the 15-point Plan. Tehran denies that direct talks took place. CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM The markets have responded positively, but cautiously, to the rumblings that began Monday, indicating the U.S. was looking to end hostilities. It is still unclear if much progress has been made on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers. The dollar has been slightly lower this week - it bought 158.8yen on Wednesday and traded at $1.1620 for the euro. Brent crude prices are up 35% from the start of the war and have reached a level near $100 per barrel, which is already hurting the economies of buyers in Asia. They pay more for diesel and jet fuel. The interest rate markets are also predicting that central banks will take extreme measures to combat inflation. They have priced in a series hikes for Europe, Britain and Australia over the next few months, as well as no more U.S. rate reductions. In Tokyo, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields dropped by around five basis points. Two-year yields also fell to 3.875%. Bond prices increase, and yields drop. LIGHT POSITIONING Marc Velan is the head of investments at Lucerne Asset Management in Singapore. People are reluctant to pursue moves that are headline-driven, and can reverse rapidly. Sources said Washington is preparing to send more troops into the region. On Tuesday, two people with knowledge of the situation said that the U.S. is 'expected to send thousands" of soldiers from its elite 82nd Airborne Division in the Middle East. The Australian dollar hovered around 70 U.S. Cents after the February inflation data, from before the outbreak of war, was a little cooler than expected. Investors have been spooked by the recent cap on withdrawals from a private debt funds, as a result of signs of stress. Ares Management was the latest asset management firm to do this. The shares of Ares, a company that managed assets worth $623 billion at the end 2025, dropped 1% on Monday. So far in 2018, they are down 36%. (Reporting and editing by Sam Holmes; Tom Westbrook)
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Minister says Australia will set a floor price for its critical mineral reserves
Australia will "no doubt", have a floor price in its strategic reserve of critical minerals. Resources Minister,?Madeleine King, said this?on Wednesday. The resource-rich nation is looking to consolidate its role as an important supplier to its allies. "We are building a strategic reserve." "There will also be a price floor," King said to delegates at the Minerals Week summit in Canberra. He added that the government would consult with the industry for the 'right price. It is about a new pricing mechanism that reflects the cost of producing these materials." Australia plans to become the world's leading supplier of rare earth minerals, which are vital to industries ranging from automotive to defense. This will be achieved in part by developing a strategic reserve, with funding of A$1.2billion ($793m). The project is expected to start up in the second half 2026. This will highlight the country's ambitions of becoming a major player on the global mineral market. Australia also supports private investment through entities like the Northern Australia Infrastructure Fund and the Export Finance Agency (EFA), which will contribute an additional A$4 Billion. King said that Australia needs to be financially prepared for such projects in the long term if it wants to establish itself as a reliable supplier of 'critical minerals' as global supply chains are rebuilt. "They're long-term investments" King stated, "I do think we will have to continue doing this for a while." China is the largest producer and refiner of critical minerals for industry. Last year, its restrictions on certain exports shook up the automotive and defense industries and drove a global drive to diversify supply.
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McGeever: It's time to reconsider the asset of a "safe haven"
The Iran War and the 'global energy shock' it unleashed could have put an end to the idea that there is a safe-haven investment for everyone. It's not a novel concept given the poor performance of U.S. Treasuries after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2004. The extraordinary fall in gold prices'since the U.S. and Israeli strike on Iran on 28 February' has brought it into the spotlight. In times of economic, geopolitical or financial instability, investors flock to assets like Treasuries. The dollar, Swiss Franc and especially gold. These are the assets that will most likely serve as a safe haven in times of crisis. Gold has been a safe haven for non-financial assets, especially in times of inflation. Gold has not only performed poorly in the current crisis, but it is also one of the most underperforming assets. It has lag behind high-yielding credit, emerging markets stocks, and frontier market stocks. Silver was the only asset that has performed better than it, and this is because of a speculative boom. Gold has fallen 17% in March so far, and is on course to have its worst month since 1982. This is astonishing in a month marked by the worst Middle East conflict, biggest global energy crisis, accelerating inflation, and $6 trillion worth of global stock value being wiped out. Around the middle of 2012, gold began to be untethered by whatever economic fundamentals were underlying it. Retail investors, momentum traders, and machines chased gold higher as central bank demand cooled. It culminated in a January high of $5 595 per ounce. This "fear of losing out" (FOMO), euphoria soon turned into widespread liquidation and drowned out any "FTQ", or flight to quality, demand sparked by this crisis. PLENTY OF REASONS TO SELL, FEW TO BUY The dollar and U.S. Treasuries are not much better. The dollar has risen but only by less than 2 percent. The Federal Reserve is not the only major central bank that will likely tighten its policy this year. Analysts at Deutsche Bank note that many central banks from Asia and the Middle East will likely look to reduce their FX reserves to cover their increased import costs, to prevent their currencies weakening excessively, and to cushion any inflation shock. This will cap dollar and could be a greater drag on U.S. Treasuries. This may have already begun. The amount of Treasuries that are held by the New York Fed for global central banks fell by around $75 billion over the past four weeks. Analysts at Deutsche Bank estimate that this is equivalent to around $60 billion in sales by the official foreign sector. This would be the second-largest net sale since the COVID-19 Pandemic. It's true that the Treasuries Market is the most liquid market in the world. But it is no longer considered the safest. The Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen are both affected by domestic problems. Both currencies have historically enjoyed current-account deficits and low rates of inflation. The Swiss National Bank has stated that it is more willing to intervene on the foreign exchange markets due to currency appreciation. The yen is already at multi-decade lows and doesn't hold much appeal, given that Japan imports most of its energy. Investors need to be flexible and more creative in the current turmoil. Trading strategies are often more effective than buying safe-haven assets. The response to each crisis depends on its origin, for example, buying energy stocks during an energy crisis, or buying defense stocks during a conflict. Cash is the one asset that seems to always do well during a crisis or even an inflationary supply shock. U.S. Money Market Funds have grown by about $60 billion since the 28th of February to a record $7.86 trillion. You shouldn't bet against the total exceeding $8 trillion within weeks. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
Iron ore falls after 3-session rally over Tangshan production curbs
Iron ore futures fell on Wednesday, after a?three-session rally. Fears of production 'cuts' in China’s steelmaking center of Tangshan pushed the price down. However, losses were?limited, as possible supply disruptions in Australia curbed declines.
As of 0332 GMT, the?most-traded? May iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange fell by 1.46% to 89.5 yuan (US$117.47) per metric ton.
Iron ore benchmark April on the Singapore Exchange fell 1.46%, to $106.1 per ton.
According to a WeChat announcement by the local authorities, Tangshan activated an emergency response of 'level two' on March 25 due to heavy air pollution. This stoked concerns about steel production cuts and increased environmental inspections at mills.
World Steel Association data released on Tuesday showed that global crude steel production dropped 2.2% from the previous year to 141.8 millions tonnes.
In February, output from China -- the world's largest producer and consumer -- dropped 3.6% to 76.1 millions tonnes.
Steel prices and margins have been under pressure due to the persistent oversupply of steel in China.
Beijing reiterated their commitment to reduce steel production earlier this month. This reinforced expectations that demand would be weaker in the future, leading to a drop in prices.
The downside has been curbed by potential supply disruptions, especially in Australia, which is the largest iron ore exporter in the world.
According to the Bureau of 'Meteorology' in Australia and a note by ANZ, a cyclone is threatening mining activities off Australia's northeast 'coast' this week.
ANZ said that the storm may have impacted open pit mines as well.
Coking coal and coke both lost 2.14% and 1.69% respectively.
The steel benchmarks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have mostly declined. Rebar fell by 0.45%, while hot-rolled coils dropped 0.33%. Wire rod also lost 0.39%. Meanwhile, stainless steel rose 0.73%. $1 = 6.8910 Yuan (Reporting and editing by Ruth Chai)
(source: Reuters)