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China will see the most extreme temperatures on record in 2025
The Meteorological Department of China announced on Thursday that the average temperature in China for the year was 10.9 degrees Celsius (51,6 degrees Fahrenheit). This is the highest ever recorded high-temperature day. At a press event, the administration announced its climate bulletin for 2025. The World?Meteorological Organisation stated in January that last year was?amongst the three warmest years on record. The administration stated that China's annual average temperature has risen in recent decades. 2025 will be the hottest year since 1961 when the first nationwide records began. The intensity of heavy rainfall and extreme heat has increased, increasing the risk of flooding and other natural disasters. According to the administration, China's temperature in 2025 of 10.9 C is tied with the 2024 record for highest ever recorded. China describes high-temperature days as days at or above 35 C. It said that from?late June until early September, there was a sustained period of high temperatures in central and eastern China. The average rainfall was also 4.5% higher than normal. The administration reported that the amount and duration of rain in northern China was also the highest ever recorded, while autumn rains in Western China were the heaviest ever recorded. Reporting by Farah Masters and the Shanghai Newsroom; Editing done by Christian Schmollinger
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Expectations of a hot metal production increase in China have led to a rise in iron ore.
Iron ore futures rose Thursday, after a?two-session slide. This was boosted by expectations of a resurgence in China's hot metal production as more steel mills reopen after maintenance. The May contract for the most traded iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 1.78%, to 798.5 Yuan ($114.96), per metric ton. As of 0704 GMT, the benchmark March iron ore on the Singapore Exchange had risen by 1.62% to $104.75 per ton. China's hot-metal output fell by 7,000 tons from week to week?as a number of blast furnaces were undergoing maintenance and postponing the planned production resume until next week. SMM stated in a separate report that hot metal production is expected to increase, as low temperatures in China require mills to continue producing in order to avoid frozen drainage system if ore supplies are sufficient. SMM reported that traders were also concerned about the Chinese government implementing environmental protection measures and carrying out safety inspections before the Lunar New Year holiday. This would hinder steel production and dampen demand for feedstocks. Hangda Steel & Chengshi Steel announced maintenance plans for February and will be suspending production. Coking coal and coke both gained 3.93% and 3.2% respectively. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased. Rebar grew by 1.12%, while hot-rolled steel coils, wire rod, and stainless steel all increased. ($1 = 6.9458 yuan) (Reporting by Ruth Chai; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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Silver tops $120; Gold flies to safety for $5,600
Investors rushed to safe havens in the face of geopolitical unrest and economic uncertainty, pushing gold prices up. Silver also soared past $120. Spot gold jumped 3%, to $5,560.07 per ounce, by 0557 GMT. It had earlier reached a record of $5,594.82 an ounce. Metal has been at record highs for nine consecutive sessions. The strange geopolitical environment and the current political climate in the U.S. (which are not good) have led to a rise in gold prices. Concerns are raised about the independence of the Fed. Investors' trust in the financial system is shaken when this happens, according to ANZ analyst Soni Kumari. Investors worry about the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve amid the criminal investigation by the Trump administration into Chair Jerome Powell and efforts to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook. They are also concerned with the nomination in May for Powell's successor. Edward Meir, a Marex analyst, said that "growing U.S. Debt and the?uncertainty caused by signs of a global trade system splintering in regional blocs instead of a U.S. centric model are leading investors to piling into gold". Yellow metal prices have risen by?more? than 10% this week, thanks to a stronger dollar and strong demand for safe-havens. After a 64% increase in 2025, gold has gained over 27% already this year. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that despite the fact that the rally has been parabolic, fundamentals will remain strong through 2026. This means any dips in the market are likely to be good opportunities for investors. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, urged Iran on Wednesday to sit down and negotiate a nuclear deal. He warned that future U.S. attacks would be much more severe than last year's attack on Iranian nuclear sites. Tehran's response was a threat of retaliation against the U.S. and Israel as well as those who support these countries. As expected, the Fed kept rates at their current levels on Wednesday. Powell stated that inflation was likely to be well above the 2% central bank target in December. Customers have been flocking in droves to Shanghai and Hong Kong precious metal dealers due to the?higher gold prices. Some are betting that it will rise even higher. Silver spot was also up 1.4%, at $118.25 per ounce. It had previously reached a record-high of $120.45. Investors looking for cheaper alternatives to gold as well as supply shortages and momentum purchasing helped boost the white metal. It has already risen more than 60% in 2026. After hitting a record-high of $2,918.80 an ounce on Monday, spot platinum rose 2.8% to $2770.49, while palladium climbed 1.6% to 2107.37.
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Russell: The Trump-China metals rally goes beyond gold and silver
Gold and silver have been making headlines in recent months, but industrial metals are also performing well. Copper, nickel, and aluminium have all seen strong gains. They reached?record or multi-year peaks, even though fundamentals do not appear to be sufficient to justify the rallies. Base metals are showing strength for a number of reasons, the majority being related to Chinese import demand and easing exports. Metals may also be benefiting from the same speculative dynamics that drive gold and silver. This is a desire for real assets in the face of investor uncertainty about the policies of U.S. president Donald Trump. Prices in other major currencies are also surging. Spot gold reached a new record high of $5400.91?an ounce, on Wednesday. It has increased by 39% from its previous low of $3886.02?on October 28. Silver has seen a more dramatic rise, with a 158% gain from its low point of $45.51 per ounce on October 28 to soaring as high as $117.41 an ounce on Wednesday. This is just short of the record-breaking $117.69 set on January 26. Silver also has benefited from concerns that China's licensing?rules on exports could lead to a decrease in shipments. Only 44 companies are allowed to export this metal next year. China shipped 5,100 metric tonnes of silver last year, its highest level since 2008. Silver is used in solar panels, and there are concerns that China may prioritise its domestic use over exports. ALUMINIUM SUPPLY China's reduced aluminium exports also has an impact on the global market. Customs data shows that exports of aluminium products and unwrought aluminum fell 8% from 2025 to 6,13 million tonnes. Aluminium prices have been rising since April due to the loss of supply from the largest producer in the world. Aluminium has increased 16.1% since the lowest price of $2,805 per ton in November. On Wednesday, aluminium closed at $3,257, its highest closing level since April 2022. London futures have seen a 24% increase from the low of $10 580 per ton that was reached on November 5, to the close of $13,086.50 which is slightly below the record high of 13 407 on January 14. China is importing more copper in recent years, particularly during the second half 2025. Arrivals of 437,000 tonnes in December were up by 2.3% compared to the previous month. Copper's rally in 2017 was largely based on the fear that Trump would introduce import tariffs. However, this concern eased after the duties were only imposed on certain copper products. Nickel, another industrial metal, has also seen impressive gains over the past few months. It rose 27.5%, from a low price of $14,330 per ton in November to a high of $18,270 in Wednesday. This is close to the 21-month peak of $19160 in January. Markets are now asking themselves if the recent gains in copper and aluminium can be justified by fundamentals of supply and demand and the outlook through 2026 or if they're driven by speculative forces. In 2026, most analysts believe that copper and aluminium will be fairly balanced markets in terms of supply and demand. Nickel is expected to remain oversupplied. The recent rally in industrial metals is likely to be a result of precious metals riding on the coattails. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist, who is also an author.
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India's demand for gold will fall by 2026 due to a jewellery slump, which will offset the investment growth
The World Gold Council (WGC), which announced the news on Thursday, said that India's demand for gold is likely to drop in 2026 after a 11% decline last year. A surge in prices will dampen jewellery sales, and offset an increase in investment purchases. Sachin Jain is the chief executive officer of the WGC Indian operations. He said that the demand for gold could be between 600 and 700 tons compared to the 710.9 tonnes last year. This was the lowest level in five years. Jain, the jeweller, said that jewellery buyers prefer stable gold prices. However, recent price increases have exceeded consumer budgets. He said that "inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), will continue to increase." Investors are turning to gold because the stock market hasn’t done well in 2025. Inflows to gold ETFs increased 283% from a year ago, reaching a record of 429.6 billion Rupees ($4.67billion). In 2025, domestic gold prices have risen by 76.5%. India's benchmark Nifty 50 index has also risen by 10.5%. The WGC published a report on Thursday that showed the demand for jewellery in 2025 had fallen by 24% compared to a year ago, reaching 430.5 metric tonnes. This is the lowest level in almost three decades, except for the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 which distorted the figures. WGC reported that investment demand rose by 17% to 280.4 tonnes in 2025, the highest level since 2013. Investment demand was a record 40% of India's gold consumption by 2025. This is up from the usual quarter. The WGC stated that "equities could remain subdued, less attractive, due to high valuations and tariffs and the foreign outflows." The WGC said that a gradual shift away from jewellery and towards pure investment demand should continue to support bar and coin prices. Indians have traditionally sold jewellery and coins in a category known as scrap supplies, due to higher gold prices. The WGC reported that in 2025, scrap metal supplies would have fallen 19%, to 92.7 tonnes. This was because the WGC continued to expect further price increases, despite bullion reaching new record highs almost every week. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Reporting by Rajendra J. Jadhav)
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MORNING BID EUROPE: Building AI is expensive, but I hope it will be worth it
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Who would have thought that building AI could cost so much? Microsoft and Meta both reported a staggering amount of money spent on capex. Microsoft spent almost $38 billion during the first quarter, a two-thirds increase over the previous year. Meta increased its capital expenditure plans by 73% for this year, to a range of between $115 billion and 135 billion. Investors reacted to these plans very differently, knocking $240 Billion off Microsoft's value and lifting Meta $140 Billion. Microsoft's drop in value was greater than Citigroup's capitalisation, but banks are so 20th century. Meta's upgraded earnings outlook has really impressed investors. However, the Redmond-based company is still struggling to calm down concerns that cost growth will ultimately exceed profit growth. Samsung Electronics has tripled its operating profit, despite the fact that one company's cost is another's revenue. Memory chips were once a dull part of the market. The Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday was also called boring. However, Chair Jerome Powell seemed pretty upbeat in his presser. He said that the economy was "on solid footing", with "clearly improved outlook" several times. The?committee was overwhelmingly in favor of keeping rates the same, except for two members who voted to cut them. He said that the Fed has "already" done a great deal of "normalising", and now policy is only "somewhat restricting", or "loosely neutre". The markets interpreted this as confirmation that an April rate cut is off the table. June will remain at 61%, in part because investors believe President Trump has found a more dovish chair by then. Powell would not say whether he will step down in May or remain as Fed governor until 2028. Powell smiled when a reporter asked him why he'd want to leave the Fed at all, given the threats against its independence. The dollar was still vulnerable in the currency market despite Treasury Sec. Bessent's assurance that the U.S.?still maintains a "strong" dollar policy, regardless of what Trump may say. The murmurs of EU and ECB officials that the euro's increase against the dollar is harmful for exports and a risk to inflation could be more meaningful. The ECB is unlikely to intervene, but the 'Swiss central banks has more experience and the flight of the dollar is pushing up the franc, even against the euro. The Swiss must be worried that the franc is now trading below a huge chart support. The SNB's intervention can cause a mess for the markets, as it sells francs to euros and then distributes some of these euros among dollars, pounds, etc., causing cross currents in various currencies. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. Consumer confidence and business sentiment in the Eurozone for January ECB member Piero Cilpollone addresses the Riksbank's policy meeting Weekly jobless claims and November U.S. trade data
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Vietnam and EU strengthen diplomatic ties amid "threat to international order"
Vietnam and the European Union announced on Thursday that they have elevated their diplomatic?relations as both sides look to expand international partnerships in light of?global disruptions. The move is largely diplomatic and does not imply any?commitments? but it does carry political weight, at a moment when both the EU (European Union) and Vietnam (Vietnam) are looking to strengthen their international ties in light of the higher tariffs they will be facing on their exports going to the United States. Vietnam's president Luong Cuong, at the start of the meeting with the European Council President Antonio Costa in Hanoi, said that the upgrade was "a historic milestone underlining the great achievements made by both sides." In 2020, a free-trade agreement between Vietnam (Vietnam) and the EU27 countries will come into effect. Costa, who arrived at Hanoi on Tuesday?after the EU signed a major deal with India, said that the upgraded partnership "highlights our importance to the region, and Vietnam's increasing role". Costa said: "At a time when the international order based on rules is threatened from many sides, we must start standing side-by-side as reliable and predictable partner." As with the United States of America, China, and Russia, more frequent meetings at high levels are usually required to elevate ties. According to a joint statement adopted on Thursday, it is expected that the partnership will also grow stronger. The two sides plan to explore and enhance their cooperation in a number of sectors, such as?defence?, critical minerals?, semiconductors?, transport?, and "trusted communication infrastructure"?, confirming an earlier report? According to a joint?statement adopted on Thursday, the two sides will explore and deepen cooperation in multiple sectors including?defence, critical minerals, semiconductors & transport as well as "trusted communications infrastructure", confirming a???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? Costa acknowledged that Vietnam, a Russian partner of many years, had different views on the conflict in Ukraine and human right issues. He added that both countries support multilateralism, as well as "the principles" of sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence.
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US sources claim that the US has moved away from critical minerals price floors
Multiple sources have confirmed that the Trump administration has backed away from its plans to guarantee a price minimum for U.S. vital minerals projects. This is a tacit acknowledgement of a lack in congressional funding as well as the difficulty of setting "market pricing". This shift comes at a time when a U.S. Senate Committee is reviewing a price ceiling extended to MP Materials in the past year. It represents a change from what was promised to industry. Washington could be a step behind other G7 countries who are discussing joint price support measures or similar measures to boost production of minerals critical to electric vehicles, semiconductors and consumer electronics. Three attendees said that two senior Trump officials informed U.S. mineral executives at a closed-door event hosted by a Washington Think Tank this month that their projects must prove their financial independence, without government price assistance. Audrey Robertson, Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Department of Energy and Head of its Office of Critical Minerals and Energy Innovation told the executives that Audrey Robertson was not there to support them. "Don't expect that from us." Rare Australian Earth Shares Slide The price floor set by the MP is not affected. Robertson was joined in the meeting by Joshua Kroon. He is the deputy assistant secretary for textiles and consumer goods as well as materials, metals, critical minerals, and other materials at the Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration. Sources claim that Kroon and Robertson informed the meeting Washington was no longer able to provide price floors. In a statement issued after the publication of the story, the Energy Department stated that the article contained "false information and relied on sources who are either misinformed or intentionally misleading." However, the statement did not specify what errors it claimed to have found. The Energy Department did not respond immediately to a request for more information. MP Materials didn't respond to an emailed comment request, but in a tweet after the article was published they said that there had not been any changes to their contract or the government obligations around it. It said that any implication the U.S. Government has reneged on its commitments towards MP Materials was false. I did not imply that the MP's agreement was at risk. The report today is inaccurate, false, and contradictory with the facts. The company stated that the report follows a pattern involving speculative, misleading reporting which has misrepresented government policy repeatedly and caused "unnecessary" confusion in the market. Kroon and Robertson have not responded to any requests for comments. After the article was published, shares of Australian listed rare earths companies fell, and at one point, Lynas Rare Earths - the largest company outside China - dropped by more than 10%. Lynas' spokesperson claimed that the company had benefited from the U.S. policy change, which has boosted rare earths prices. Price protection is important for producers who are currently in business, because it addresses the market's dysfunction immediately. She said that other policy instruments were available and had been used for early-stage projects. Reg Spencer, an analyst at Canaccord in Sydney, believes that the steep fall for shares related to rare earths was exaggerated. The comments were in line with his interpretation of White House policy, which is that the White House does not intend to support every rare earths project by using a floor price mechanism. Projects will be developed on their merits," said he. The U.S. continues to support the development of a critical minerals supply chain in ex-China. He added that they may use different methods. Change in Tack The current administration stance contrasts with a closed door meeting held in late July where two officials told separate minerals executives that an MP Materials floor price granted days earlier was "not one-off", and that the administration is working on other price support projects. Since then, the administration took equity positions in Lithium Americas and other companies, including USA Rare Earth, Trilogy Metals and USA Rare Earth. There were no price floors offered, which raised questions about the government’s commitment to this financial tool. U.S. mining companies and processing firms have sought price floor and other government protections in order to compete with China. Industry executives claim that China's state producers can cut prices to punish competitors, undermine projects, and discourage private investment. The White House has declined to confirm whether it intends to set new price floors. However, it said that it would continue to pursue tax cuts, deregulation and targeted investments for high priority sectors "while being responsible stewards" of taxpayer dollars. Price floors are criticized by critics who warn that they expose U.S. tax payers to significant financial risks. They say the government is forced to subsidise minerals when prices drop, and this could lock in liabilities for a long time if prices continue to fall. Legal experts warn that guaranteeing a minimum price could be challenged under U.S. budget, procurement and trade laws. This is especially true if the support is viewed as a market distortion, or if it lacks an explicit congressional approval. Washington can still take other measures to support mineral projects and stabilize prices. These include stockpiling and equity investments, as well as local content requirements. Australia and other countries have also looked at price floors for critical mineral. MP?DEAL UNDER THE SPOTLIGHT Two additional sources said that the MP Materials investment caused concern among some administration officials and Congress members, who were concerned that Congress had not authorized funding for a floor price of at least $10 per kg for 2 types of rare Earths. Since the MP investment, the economics of the mineral markets have changed. USA Rare Earth announced this week that it plans to purchase the same types of rare Earths on the open markets for $125 per kilogram. The MP investment included a guarantee purchase agreement. This caused confusion about whether Washington would guarantee price floors for others. Sources said that as the Trump administration looked at other equity investments it could make after MP, they realized it didn't have the authority from Congress to fund a floor price. According to two sources, this realization was partly triggered by an inquiry made by members of the Senate Armed Services Committee. They asked Pentagon staff to meet last year in order to explain why MP Materials had received support for a price floor and the administration's investment strategy in the minerals sector. The committee member confirmed the request for a meeting but declined to comment further.
Tungsten reaches record highs after export restrictions increase supply
Tungsten prices in January reached record levels, due to tightening inventories, Chinese export controls, and industrial demand. This has left consumers scrambling in an already constrained market.
According to traders, the price of ammonium paratungstate (used to make tungsten) was 'trading' at $1,125-1,150 per metric tonne unit (mtu). This is a new record. Rotterdam prices reached a record high of $1,100. The prices are expected to rise further in the next few weeks.
Tungsten, a crucial industrial metal with the highest melting temperature of all metals, is prized for its high hardness. Tungsten carbide is used in cutting tools, wear parts, and machinery for mining, construction, and manufacturing. It's also used in electronics, aerospace, and defence components.
The price spikes can affect factory output and costs. Tungsten is a good indicator for advanced manufacturing.
There are many reasons why Tungsten prices are going up - the market is tight, demand is high from all sectors (defence, aerospace, IGT and others), there are supply issues (lower grade ore and other 'issues) and, on top of this, exports to China are a problem, said a London-based Trader in an email.
China, the world's largest tungsten producer and processor, announced export controls on February 20, 2025. Exporters must obtain government approval before sending their materials.
Beijing announced 15 companies last month that would be allowed to export tungsten. This could lead to a centralization of control and a reduction in the amount of tungsten available to foreign buyers.
William Parry Jones, founder of Wolfram Advisory, a'specialist in tungsten supply chain strategy and market analysis' said that "China’s" export volume had declined by 40% since controls were introduced. There are not enough raw materials ex-China available to replace the export volume.
The U.S. Geological Survey has estimated that tungsten production outside China will be fragmented in 2024. Vietnam and Russia are the leading producers, followed by modest productions from Rwanda, Bolivia and Austria.
Market participants attribute the higher China prices due to China's limited mining quota which was?cut by 6.5% in 2025 from the year before, as well as a higher manufacturing rate, leading to more domestic consumption.
Parry-Jones stated that "China has been building up its manufacturing capacity - it's now viewed as the factory for the world... If you as an end user customer can't buy your widget directly from your preferred provider, you may be forced to purchase the widget in China. This plays perfectly into the Chinese strategy."
The global tightening of security has intensified after the new Chinese controls on dual use materials imported to Japan took effect this month. Japan is one the biggest importers of Chinese Tungsten. (Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus)
(source: Reuters)