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Oil prices rise as Venezuelan supply disruptions overshadow surplus concerns
Prices of oil rose on Monday, as disruptions in supply linked to escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela outweighed concerns about oversupply and the potential impact of a Russia-Ukraine "peace" deal. Brent crude futures rose 33 cents or 0.54% to $61.45 per barrel as of 0429 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was up 31 cents or 0.54% at $57.75 per barrel. The expectation of a surplus for 2026 weighed on both contracts, which fell more than 4% the previous week. Tsuyoshi Ueno is a senior economist with the NLI Research Institute. He said that tensions between Venezuela and the U.S. have escalated, raising fears about possible supply disruptions. "Although markets lack direction, concerns about oversupply remain high. If geopolitical risk escalates sharply, WTI may fall below $55 by early next year." According to documents, shipping data and maritime sources, Venezuela's oil exports have dropped sharply after the United States seize a tanker last week. The United States also imposed new sanctions on shipping firms and vessels that do business with the Latin American oil producer. Market participants are closely watching developments and their impact on the oil supply. Reports indicate that the U.S. is planning to intercept additional ships carrying Venezuelan crude oil after this week's seizure of tankers, increasing pressure on President Nicolas Maduro. Prices were impacted by the rising expectations of an excess. JPMorgan Commodities Research stated in a Saturday note that oil surpluses are expected to grow further in 2026 and 2027 as the global oil supply will outpace the demand. The oil supply is predicted to expand at a rate three times faster than?demand growth up to 2026. On Sunday, during a five-hour meeting with U.S. ambassadors in Berlin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy offered that his country would no longer seek to join NATO. The negotiations are expected to continue on Monday. Steve Witkoff, the U.S. ambassador to China, said that "a lot of work has been done," but he did not provide any additional details. Ukraine's military announced on Friday it had attacked a major Russian refinery located in Yaroslavl to the northeast of Moscow. Industry sources confirmed that production at the facility was suspended. Calculations showed that the Russian state's oil and gas revenues in December are likely to drop by almost half from a year ago to 410 billion Russian roubles (5.12 billion dollars) because of lower crude prices. The West has sanctioned the Russian oil industry, but a possible peace deal could increase its supply. Baker Hughes, an energy services company, said that on the supply side U.S. firms cut back the number of operating oil and gas rigs for the second time in the last three weeks.
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Dalian iron ore reaches five-month low after China announces plans to regulate exports of steel
The prices of Dalian iron-ore fell Monday, hitting their lowest level for more than five months. This was due to China's plans to introduce a licence system to regulate steel exports from 2026. Iron ore, the most traded contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange(DCE), closed morning trade with a 1.5% decline to 754 yuan (106.95 dollars) per metric ton. It reached its lowest level at 748 Yuan, since July 10, earlier in the day. By?0330 GMT, the benchmark January iron ore price on the Singapore Exchange had fallen 0.76% to $100.2 per ton. The contract hit a low intraday of $100.4, which was close to the Friday low?of $100.25, and is the lowest level since July 17. China's Ministry of Commerce announced on Friday that?some steel product would be added to its list of cargoes covered by?export licenses from January 1, 2026. This is because robust shipments are fueling a protectionist backlash around the world. China's soaring steel exports helped offset the slump in domestic demand for steel caused by the prolonged downturn on the property market, thereby supporting the prices of this key ingredient. China's crude output of steel in November dropped 3% from October, pointing to six consecutive months of declines. This was due to thinner margins and declining domestic demand. Analysts at Xinhu Futures stated that the downward potential for iron ore prices is limited because mills will start restocking their feedstocks to sustain operations during the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays in February. The Chinese Lunar New Year in 2026 will be celebrated from February 15 to 23. Following a Friday slump, coke and other steelmaking materials rose by 4.04 % and 1.13 %, respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. Rebar gained 0.42%. Hot-rolled coils advanced 0.22%. Wire rod declined 0.86%. Stainless steel fell 0.08%. ($1 = 7,0499 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu S. Sahu; Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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Silver steadies; gold rises on weaker dollar and yields, as markets watch US jobs data
Investors waited for key U.S. job data to get clues about the Federal Reserve's future policy, and gold extended its gains. Silver, meanwhile, remained steady after a record-breaking week. Gold spot rose 0.4%, to $4320.65 per ounce at 0319 GMT. Bullion is up about 64% this year. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.6% to $4354.00 per ounce. Dollar hovered around a two-month high, which made bullion attractive to overseas buyers. Meanwhile, yields on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds edged down. "Gold will likely remain in high demand into the U.S. Non-farm payrolls as evidence of labour-market slack will keep front-end rates capped, and the dollar weak. The markets remain focused on the Fed’s policy outlook following a 25-basis point rate cut by the U.S. Central Bank last week in a split decision. This was a rare decision and signaled a possible pause, as inflation remains high and the employment outlook is uncertain. Two Fed officials dissented, saying inflation was too high to justify a looser policy. Investors currently expect two rate cuts in 2019. This week's U.S. employment report is seen as an important test for these expectations. Gold and other non-yielding investments benefit from a low interest rate environment. ANZ stated in a 'note' that India’s decision to allow pension funds to invest in ETFs of gold and silver could increase institutional participation. We believe that such regulations can increase investor confidence and support higher allocations in portfolios. Silver spot rose by 0.8%, to $62.48 an?ounce. It reached a record-high of $64.65 before closing sharply lower. ANZ warned of downside risks to silver. They cited a possible U.S. exemption from tariffs and stretched valuations compared to gold?that might trigger fund rotation. Silver prices are up 115% in one year due to tighter inventories, increased industrial demand and the inclusion of silver on the U.S. Critical Minerals List. Palladium gained 0.1% per ounce to $1,502.29, while spot platinum fell 0.2% at $1,741.82. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Rashmi aich and Sherin Elizabeth Varghese from Bengaluru)
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Shanghai copper falls from record highs as weak China data raises concerns about demand
Shanghai copper prices fell on Monday, after hitting a record in the previous session. This was due to renewed demand concerns triggered by an array of 'weak' data in China, which is a major consumer. As of 0228 GMT, the most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.49%, to 92180 yuan per metric tonne ($13,068.87). The price of copper reached a record-high?of 94.570 yuan last Friday. The red metal widely used in power plants, construction and manufacturing has seen its largest daily drop since December 9. China's growth in?factory production and retail sales slowed down further in November due to weak domestic demand. China's real estate investment and sales by floor area have also declined. China?Vanke reported in a Hong Kong Stock Exchange document on Monday that the company had failed to obtain bondholder approval for a one-year delay of a bond payment which was due the same day. This raised concerns about a?potential default. The Shanghai Futures Exchange also monitors the inventory of warehouses to determine whether they are increasing. . The benchmark?three-month?copper on the London Metal Exchange rose by 1.35% to $11,671 a metric tonne. After reaching its highest level ever on Friday, it fell more than 3%. SHFE aluminium fell 1.49%. Nickel lost?1.09%. Lead eased 0.26%. Tin dropped 1.88%. Zinc fell 0.79%. Aluminium, nickel, and tin were all little changed. Lead advanced by 0.15%. Zinc rose by 1.06%.
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Key data: Stocks fall ahead of central bank decision
Investors reined-in risk-taking as they began a week that would be peppered with important central bank decisions and data release. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell 1%. This was largely due to a fall of up to 2.7% on South Korean shares. South Korea is one of the best-performing markets in the world this year. Chris Weston said, "We are now in the last week of trading before many close their books for 2025 and call it an end of year," said Chris Weston. He is head of research at Pepperstone Group based in Melbourne. "Some may have already done this," he said. Prices will drop by a significant amount next week. S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% while yields on U.S. Treasury bonds fell 1.2 basis points to 4.182%. Investors waited for a series of economic data releases as well as a number of central bank decisions. The Bank of England could make a similar cut of 3.75%. Along with Sweden's Riksbank, and Norway's Norges Bank, the European Central Bank will 'keep interest rates on pause'. Investors can also catch up with economic data that was delayed due to the U.S. shutdown. This includes the November jobs report and the consumer price index. The U.S. Dollar was stable at 7,0532 yuan against the Chinese Yuan trading offshore. This is its highest level in over a year. Factory output and retail sales numbers for November showed a further slowdown. Official data released on Monday showed that the price of new homes continued to decline in November. This indicates that the recovery in the demand for housing is still elusive, despite government promises to stabilize the sector. China Vanke announced that it would convene another bondholder meeting after the state-backed developer failed to secure bondholder approval for a one-year extension of a bond payment due on Monday. This increased the risk of default, and renewed concerns about the property crisis-hit sector. Jeff Zhang, Morningstar's equity analyst, said that if Vanke defaults in the end, the impact on the China real estate sector could be significant. Investors are more worried about the government's attitude to bailouts, even for'safe' names. Stocks in Japan fell, despite a boost from the BOJ's "tankan", a closely-watched survey, which showed that the business sentiment of big manufacturers reached a four year high on Monday, indicating the economy is weathering the blow caused by higher tariffs. tariffs. Last week, the Nikkei was down 1.4%. Brent crude rose 0.6% to $61.46 on supply concerns sparked by tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela. Imperial Oil announced on Sunday that it had issued an alert for a fire at its 120,000 barrels per day refinery in Ontario, Canada. Russia, meanwhile, said that a refinery in Afipsky had not been damaged by an Ukrainian drone attack. Steve Witkoff, the U.S. ambassador to Berlin said that "a lot of progress has been made" on the geopolitical side in the peace talks in Berlin for the end of the Ukraine conflict. Gold has extended its recent rally for a fifth consecutive day, as it nears a record-high of $4381.21. The spot bullion price was last up 0.5%, at $4325.51. The cryptocurrency markets ended a three-day losing spree, with bitcoin ending the day up 1.2% to $89,517.01 while ether rose 1.1% to 3,116.42. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam, Sam Holmes and Gregor Stuart Hunter)
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Source: Korea Zinc board will discuss plans to build smelter in US joint venture.
A source familiar with this issue has confirmed that the board of Korea Zinc will vote on Monday on the plan to 'build a plant to refine key minerals in the U.S. as part of a joint venture between the U.S. Government and companies. The investments are estimated to be 10 trillion won (6.78 billion dollars). The South Korean Yonhap News Agency reported the U.S. Government and Companies will 'hold a 20 percent stake in the joint-venture with an investment of 2 trillion won. They said the facilities were expected to produce 'germanium and antimony. Unable to comment immediately, a spokesperson from Korea Zinc did not respond. China is the largest supplier of minerals like antimony and Germanium used in military technology, telecommunications and semiconductors. Beijing will ban exports of these mineral to the U.S. from December 3, 2024. This is in response to Washington's crackdown on China's chip industry. Since November, the ban has been lifted. Korea Zinc, the largest zinc smelter in the world, also produces antimony and other metals. Korea Zinc and Lockheed Martin agreed in August to "produce germanium from raw materials obtained outside of?China" starting 2028. This will ensure a steady supply of materials for the defense and space industries. Shares of Korea Zinc soared 7.5% following media reports about its plans to establish a joint venture in the United States. (1 dollar = 1,475.5400 won). (Reporting and editing by Hyunjoo Ji, Jack Kim)
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Key data: Stocks fall as traders reduce their exposure before central bank meetings
Asian stocks fell in early trading Monday, as investors reined-in risk-taking ahead of a week that will be dotted with data releases and central bank decisions. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell?0.6%. This was led by a fall of up to 2.7% on South Korean shares. South Korea is one of the best-performing markets in the world this year. Chris Weston said, "We are in the final trading week for 2025. Many will close their books at this point and call it an end to the year." Chris Weston is head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd. "Some may have already done this," he said. The liquidity levels will likely be lower than usual this week, but still sufficient to work the sizes without causing excessive price movement. Next week, however, they will drop significantly. Investors awaited the release of economic data and the central bank's decisions. The S&P 500 e-mini futures rose by 0.1%. Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are expected to make similar decisions. The Bank of England could cut rates by the same amount to 3.75%. Along with Sweden's Riksbank, and Norway's Norges Bank, the European Central Bank is expected to hold interest rates. Investors can also check on the economic data which were delayed due to the U.S. shutdown. This includes the November jobs report and the consumer price index. The Topix index remained steady in Japan after the BOJ’s closely watched “tankan” survey revealed on Monday that the business sentiment of big manufacturers had reached a four-year-high, indicating the economy is weathering the impact of higher U.S. tariffs. The U.S. Dollar was trading at 7,0532 yuan against the Chinese Yuan. This is its highest level in over a year. Today, we will be releasing the house price and activity statistics for November. A filing shows that the state-backed property company China Vanke, which is in financial trouble, failed to get bondholders' approval on Friday to extend a Monday bond payment by a year. This increased the risk of default, and renewed concerns about the property crisis-hit sector. Brent crude rose 0.3% to $61.30 in commodities after Imperial Oil announced on Sunday that it had issued an alert for a fire at its 120,000 barrels-per-day refinery facility?in Ontario, Canada. Russia reported that a Ukrainian drone strike on an Afipsky oil refinery did not cause any damage. Steve Witkoff, the U.S. ambassador to Berlin, said that "a lot?of progress" was made in the peace talks in Berlin last Sunday. After a four-day rally in the last week, gold fluctuated between gains & losses. It was approaching its record high $4,381.21. The spot bullion price was down by 0.1% to $4,299.69. The cryptocurrency markets were under pressure for the fourth day in a row. Bitcoin was down by 0.3% to $88,235.59, and ether was 0.5% lower, at $3,065.62. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam.)
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China and Saudi Arabia agree to enhance coordination on regional and global issues
China and Saudi Arabia have agreed to a closer communication and coordination regarding regional and?international matters, and Beijing has praised Riyadh for its role in Middle?East Diplomacy. This was revealed by statements made following a?meeting?between?the?nations?' foreign ministers? on Sunday. Wang Yi, the Chinese Foreign Minister, is currently on a Middle East tour that started in the United Arab Emirates. It is expected to conclude in Jordan. On Sunday, he met with Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan Al-Saud. China's 'official news agency Xinhua' published a joint statement that did not specify what areas the countries would strengthen their coordination, but mentioned China's support of Saudi Arabia and Iran in 'developing and enhancing' 'their relationships. In a statement issued on Monday, it was stated that "China appreciates Saudi Arabia for its leadership role and efforts in achieving regional and international stability and security." In the statement, both countries reaffirmed their support for "a comprehensive and just settlement" to?the Palestinian question and for the creation of an independent Palestinian state. In a Monday statement, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that Wang had told his Saudi counterpart at a high level meeting that China always considered Saudi Arabia to be a "priority in Middle East diplomacy", and an important global partner. He also urged a?more cooperative approach in the areas of energy and investment, as well in the fields?new energy? and green transformation. According to a joint statement, the countries have agreed that diplomatic passport holders and special passports from both sides will be exempted of visa requirements. Reporting by Liz Lee, Shanghai Newsroom; Editing and rewriting by Paul Simao
China's crude steel production in November is at a 23-month high
China's crude output of steel in November dropped 3% from the previous month, and is now on track for six consecutive months of declines. This has been curbed by thinner margins, as well as a waning domestic market.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that the 'world's biggest?steel manufacturer manufactured 69.87 millions metric tons of raw steel in December, the lowest monthly total since December 2023.
The data revealed that this was down from 72 million tonnes in October, and 10.9% from the same period last year.
According to calculations based on data, the November volume equates to an average daily production of 2.33 million tonne, compared to 2.32 million tonne in October, and 2.61 millions tonne in November 2024.
Mysteel, a consultancy, reported that around 35% of steelmakers had made a profit at the end of November. This was down from 45% late in October.
China's factory activity declined for the eighth consecutive month in November. This highlights manufacturers' struggles to sustain a recovery as a U.S./China trade war has increased pressure on businesses.
Manufacturers have collectively become China's biggest steel consumer, replacing depressed property developers.
In the first 11 months of 2025 production totaled 891.67 millions?tons. This is 4% less than a year ago.
Cai Yongzheng is a Nanjing based director at the Jiangsu Fushi Data Research Institute. He said that China's total annual crude steel production?will fall between 950 millions and 960 millions tons. (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
(source: Reuters)