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Andy Home: Myanmar mine still a major player in the tin market
As the market waits for the Man Maw Mine to return in Myanmar, tin continues to outperform other base metals on the London Metal Exchange. Two years have passed since the mine was shut down for a resource assessment. Six months have passed since the authorities of the semi-autonomous Wa State invited new applications for mining permits. There is still no sign of a significant increase in activity. The flow of tin concentrats from Myanmar into neighbouring China is almost completely dry. The uncertainty surrounding Man Maw has reignited fund interest in buying tin, and the LME 3-month tin prices have risen from less than $30,000 per metric tonne in April to over $35,000 by the end of August. The tin supply is still a mystery to many speculators. WAITING FOR MAN MAW China's decreased imports of tin from Myanmar is a clear indication of the continued absence of Man Maw supplies. The flow of raw materials to Chinese smelters fell to 933 tons in the month of July. This suggests that activity has not yet resumed at Man Maw, and that other smaller mines in the country are also experiencing disruptions, perhaps due to the March earthquake that shook the country. Imports from Myanmar in the first half of this year have dropped by 77% compared to last year, and now total just 14,200 tonnes. Comparatively, the monthly average imports in 2022 and 2023 were 15,000 tons, when Man Maw still produced tin. The International Tin Association announced in July that the first permits for the mining of Man Maw had been issued. The Association warned it would be some time before actual tin production resumed and exports recovered. It has been proven. No Scratch China's tin-smelters have been able to compensate for the loss Man Maw, which was their primary source of supply until August 2023 when it was suspended. This year, the Democratic Republic of Congo emerged as the single largest supplier of tin concentrats. Imports from Australia and Nigeria also increased sharply. The total imports through July of 73,000 tonnes are down 32% on an annual basis. According to Shanghai Metal Market, the margins of Chinese smelters have been squeezed. Capacity utilisation in many areas of China was less than 70% last month. Many operators carry less than 30 day's worth of concentrates and take maintenance time in the hopes that raw material availability will improve when they return. Yunnan Tin is the largest producer of refined Tin in the world. It has shut down its Gejiu Smelter for 45 Days for its annual maintenance. The loss of Man Maw, however, has not yet caused any visible tightness in refined metals segment of the supply chains. The global exchange inventory is stable at over 11,000 tons for the past three months. This is a far cry compared to the days of true scarcity, in 2021, when stocks were down to 1,000 tons. Exports from Indonesia are recovering from the disruption caused by last year's permits. Exports of 30,000 tonnes to July 2024 were 64% higher than the same period in 2014. The escalation of trade tensions between China and the United States has also likely helped. Tin is used in the electronics industry to solder circuit boards. BULLS RETURN Tin bulls remain unabated. Funds increased their bets for higher prices up to 4,515 LME (22,575 tonnes), while short positions were reduced to only 610 contracts. The net positioning has remained the same since March when the price spiked up to a three year high of $38,395 a ton following news that the M23 insurgents had briefly taken control of the Bisie Tin Mine in the Congo. Bisie quickly returned to normal operations following the M23 withdrawal as part of the U.S.-brokered Peace Deal between Congo and Rwanda. Man Maw remains, however, conspicuous in its absence. Funds appear to be betting on the fact that production will not return to levels seen before closure. It's impossible to know if that assumption is correct, due to the near complete lack of information coming out of Wa State. When the raw material flow over the border into China begins to return to historic norms, the answer will be apparent. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
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Polluted, poor US cities take on 'toxic soup"
New laws open up new routes to cleaning up chokepoints Concentrate on 'overburdened and poor' areas Minnesota, New Jersey, New York at vanguard By Carey L. Biron State regulators, as well as locals like Roxxanne O’Brien, recognized the factory as a source for lead, chromium, and other pollutants. As O'Brien concentrated on the fallout of the metals plant on her impoverished neighborhood in north Minneapolis, her eyes widened as she surveyed the other industrial operations that lined the river. Each emitted its own cocktail pollutants. She calls these levels of combined pollution "cumulative impact" - when pollution from multiple sources is combined and harms human health. She said that it is especially important in areas with a high minority population, such as the north Minneapolis area, where manufacturing, heavy industry and transportation tend to be concentrated. The regulators, on the other hand, are more focused on a single operation than they are looking at the consequences of a concentration in whichever area. O'Brien is hoping to find a solution. She's the co-founder and leader of a group named Community Members for Environmental Justice. Frontline Communities Protection Act (FCP) is a state statute that establishes a new process of permitting for industries in "environmental justice", impoverished and minority communities. A law will be passed in 2023 and a framework for implementation is due next May. After New Jersey and New York, it's the third largest state in the United States. Supporters of the trend say that local officials are increasingly adopting this new approach to combat pollution in "overburdened communities". The news comes at a time when President Donald Trump is undermining the national momentum in this area by cutting funding and banning government efforts to promote "diversity and equity" that could have assisted impacted communities avoid pollution. Industry groups including local chambers and utilities reacted negatively to the Minnesota bill, warning that it could stifle development or duplicate rules already in place. Fue Lee of Minnesota, the state representative who spearheaded this law, said that the need for change was a "no brainer". Why do community members continue to ask me for the state to step in when we already have the tools? NEW JERSEY VANGUARD In the 1980s, communities became frustrated by regulators who relied on risk analyses that did not reflect the harms they had seen first-hand. According to the National Caucus of Environmental Legislators, areas that are more racially divided have up to 75% higher concentrations of copper, chromium and lead, and low-income communities suffer from asthma, diabetes, and hypertension. Ana Baptista of the Tishman Environment and Design Center of the New School, New York, explained that a facility permit could allow a certain level of pollution, but it would not take into consideration other industries polluting the region. Baptista explained that communities would face a brick wall every time they try to oppose these facilities. She was instrumental in getting the first law of this kind passed in New Jersey. The new law strengthens the power of regulators in achieving change and includes local voices as part of the process. New Jersey regulators issued their first ruling under the new law in May, relating to permits for a recycler plant. They also ordered some changes. The New Jersey Environmental Justice Alliance is a coalition that represents a number of organizations. While applauding this milestone, they said "significantly more should have been done" to protect the overburdened surrounding communities. According to the Tishman Center, in addition to Minnesota and New York a number of other states and cities, including Maryland, D.C., and Colorado, have proposed similar legislation. Baptista said that the return of Trump has led many communities to seek help from state legislators, as they do not feel protected by the federal government. Local Voices Researchers found in 2019 that Chicago's racially-segregated neighborhoods had the largest life expectancy difference of all US cities - 30 years. Iyana Simba, a member of the Illinois Environmental Council (a group of 130 advocacy groups) said that clustering industries in some areas has a measurable impact: high rates of cancer, as well as asthma and respiratory diseases. It's not just a single factory or warehouse. She said that these communities have multiple factories in the same location. In April, the mayor and other officials introduced a bill on cumulative impacts for an ordinance which could be voted in the coming weeks. Minnesota is still negotiating how to implement a new law before the deadline of May next year, and they are focusing on "community benefits". Sasha Lewis Norelle, an activist with COPAL, a group of advocates who work with Minnesota's Latino Community, explained that this could include mitigating the pollution, paying for health problems caused by it, or securing jobs for locals.
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Gold reaches new record highs after weak US job data
Gold prices reached new record highs after a weak U.S. employment report fueled hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut. This gave bullion a fresh boost, fueling its blistering rally. As of 12:34 GMT, spot gold was up by 0.9% to $3,577.33 an ounce. Prices have risen 3.7% this week and reached a new record of $3,582.71. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose by 0.9% to $3.637.00. Data revealed that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, while job growth in the U.S. slowed sharply. This confirms that the labor market is softening. The Federal Reserve should therefore cut interest rates this month. Bullion is a safe investment, but it doesn't pay any interest. China and India are the top two gold consumers. The physical demand for gold dropped in these hubs this week as a result of record-high prices. The data on gold reserves for August, which is due from China's Central Bank on Sunday, won't match the record highs of September, but it may still give more insight into how high bullion price has affected demand. Silver, among other metals rose 1% per ounce to $41.09 and is on track for its third consecutive weekly gain. Palladium, which was up 0.2%, is now $1,125.44. Platinum rose 2.2%, to $1,396,97.
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India's finance minister said that India would continue to purchase Russian oil despite US tariffs.
India's finance minister stated on Friday that it will continue to purchase Russian oil if it is economical. This was despite the Trump Administration's decision to impose high import tariffs on Indian products due in part to its energy purchases. India, which is the world's largest purchaser of Russian crude oil, has taken advantage discounts on Russian production to become the biggest buyer. New Delhi says its purchases of Russian crude oil has kept markets balanced. Donald Trump, the U.S. president who is trying to end the Ukraine conflict by brokering a settlement, said that India's oil imports were helping to fund Moscow's military effort. He imposed a tariff of 50% on Indian imports last month. Speaking on CNN-News18 local news, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that India, as the third largest oil importer in the world, has no plans to stop using Russian supplies. We will need to decide which source of supply is best for us. We will buy it, she said. She added that India spends the majority of its foreign currency on crude oil and refined petroleum products. Oil and refined fuel purchases from abroad accounted for approximately a quarter (25%) of total imports in the fiscal year ending March 2025. Sitharaman continued, "Whether we buy Russian oil or any other type of oil, our decision is to purchase from the location that best suits our needs, whether it be in terms if rates, logistics or anything else." This week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin attended a Tianjin summit that Chinese President Xi Jinping organized as a show of solidarity with the West. Modi's attendance at the meeting, which some observers have dubbed the "Axis of Upheaval", alongside leaders of North Korea and Myanmar, was seen by some experts to be a result of New Delhi's fallout with Washington. The talks between the two countries aimed at negotiating an agreement to reduce the U.S. duty burden on Indian products have failed. The two sides have not met physically since last month's cancellation of a visit by U.S. Trade officials to New Delhi. U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent accused India of profiteering from importing Russian crude oil at lower rates and then reselling it at a higher price. In a Friday post on the social media platform Truth Social, Trump commented on Putin's and Modi’s visit to China. Looks like China has won India and Russia. They may have a prosperous and long future together! He wrote. (Reporting and writing by Nikunj Ohri, Editing by Joe Bavier; Writing by Hritam Mukerjee)
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Poor Afghans who were deported to Pakistan are hit by a new wave of earthquakes
Nazar Shah, who was deported from Pakistan last June, was trying to rebuild his life when a nighttime earthquake struck. Six of his relatives died, his stepmother was injured, and his stone-and mud house was destroyed. The 40-year old Shah and 20 family members sleep under a tarpaulin by a river in the path of potential floods and feel daily aftershocks. Shah, a Masud farmer in Afghanistan's eastern Kunar province, which borders Pakistan, said, "We lost our shelter." Pots, bedding, and a few wheat bags were stacked outside on wooden beds. Since midnight on Sunday, two earthquakes have struck the war-ravaged country of the Taliban, killing more than 2,200, injuring over 3,600 and destroying thousands of homes. Rescue and relief have been made difficult by a lack of resources, the decline of foreign aid after the Taliban took over in 2021, and the slow and meager help from the rest. Shah, an Afghan deported this year from Pakistan and Iran, is one of the hundreds of thousands who have suffered a particularly severe blow. Pakistan has expelled thousands of Afghans under its new laws. These Afghans had fled to Pakistan in the 1980s from war and poverty back home. Plan for the Repatriation of Illegal Foreigners Launched in 2023 Shah claimed that he worked security guard shifts in Pakistan for two years with his brothers to pay rent and bills. Deportation forced him back to Masud where his extended family was packed into three small rooms. When Shah spoke with him on Thursday, he said that "life there wasn't too bad." Even if we were forced to buy food on credit and eat less, we still managed. He rushed to get his children, livestock and himself out of the house when the earthquake struck. But he forgot about his mother. He said, "When I realized, she'd already made some distance. But then, a rock from the mountain fell and hit her leg." It was pitch black. "You couldn't even see your hands." DOUBLE CRISIS Aid groups claim that it has taken a long time to provide relief for victims like Shah and his family, as mountain roads have been blocked by landslides and money is scarce. The crisis is exacerbated by the return to Afghanistan of Afghans who were expelled from Iran or Pakistan. They are flooding back into border regions such as Kunar, with very little else. Deportations and natural disasters are straining an already fragile aid effort. Hazrat Gul, a 30-year-old doctor who volunteered to help the family of Shah finally arrived with bandages and medications from his own pharmacy. Rad Bibi's wound had been left untreated for 4 days. The doctor who had rushed to the area from Nangarhar after burying his six relatives, said "These people still suffer." If it rains hard, God knows what's going to happen. Tents are not able to withstand storms." Jamal Naser (43), a driver, suffered a similar fate. He was in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, when the earthquakes struck. He hurried home to Masud, leaving behind his family, but found his house in ruin. He said that he was lost, having already received a notice of deportation from Pakistani authorities. "With winter fast approaching, what will I do?" he asked. Reporting by Mohammed Yunus Yawar, Jalalabad; and Sayed Hassib, Mazar Dara. Writing by Ariba Shehid. Editing by YPrajesh and Mark Heinrich.
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Land disputes in the rebel-occupied Congo threaten Trump's peace deal
Some farmers in eastern Congo, who fled their land during the violent advance of M23 rebels to escape M23, have received a shocking surprise when they return: their fields of cabbage and cauliflower have been occupied by newcomers including Rwandans. Tensions may arise, complicating efforts to bring peace to a region devastated by war, which produces strategic minerals like coltan and cobalt. In June, the Trump administration mediated a peace agreement between Rwanda and Congo. Last month, peace talks between Congo and M23 were supposed to result in a deal. However, they have been postponed. According to a senior rebel official, the problem of land disputes has become so widespread that M23 set up an "arbitration center" to help resolve them. Fred Bauma is the head of Ebuteli, a Congolese research organization. This issue will be dealt with as part of the Doha Agreements. Abdu Djuma Burunga (49), fled the breadbasket of Kibumba in 2009, just as M23, backed by Rwanda, began a resurgence that culminated with its recent blitz of North and South Kivu Provinces. The fighting has resulted in the deaths of thousands and displacement of hundreds of thousands. Alliance Fleuve Congo - the rebel coalition which includes M23 - wants to demonstrate that it can govern, and restore order. The forces of Alliance Fleuve Congo have destroyed camps where Burunga and others sought refuge, and urged or forced them to return home. Burunga returned to Kibumba, Rwanda, in April and found that his house was in ruins. It had been in great shape when he left. Strangers were working his fields, he claimed. They "took away our belongings and occupied the fields." Burunga said that the five men wore civilian clothing and were drinking beer with M23 fighters, while chatting in Kinyarwanda. Burunga has seen the group come and go over the border. They could not independently confirm both their nationality and identity. Burunga was forced to wait for four months, despite his appeals to the local officials appointed by M23, to regain possession of his land so that new arrivals can harvest their crops. He took possession of the land again in August. HUNDREDS of Cases Mukumunana Pennina, a Rwandan who recently arrived in Kibumba and is farming land owned by a Congolese farmer that fled, said she knew this. She said she did not come to the land because M23 encouraged her. This field belongs to a Congolese. I don't know his name. I planted potatoes in it. "I'm Rwandan and I occupied this field only to survive," said the woman. Six Congolese refugees who were displaced from their homeland in the eastern Congo returned home to find that it was occupied. United Nations Refugee Agency survey results for February and March were seen by. They identified 200 families from Goma, the largest city in eastern Congo, who claimed they could not return to their farms, because in many cases, others lived and worked on them. This figure represents approximately 10% of the respondents. The survey did no specify who has taken over the land. The topic of occupation by Rwandans has a lot of emotion attached to it. In a report published by U.N. expert in July, it was stated that Rwanda exercised command over M23. Kigali's focus included "conquering more territories" in the area. Kigali denies that it helped M23, but admits to deploying forces on the eastern Congo which they claim are in self-defence in order to defend themselves against Congo's army as well as ethnic Hutu militiamen. A Rwandan spokesperson refused to comment when asked if Kigali is trying to seize land on the eastern Congo. Senior rebel officials denied that most of the newcomers are Rwandans. They described them as ethnic Congolese Tutsis, who had crossed the border out of fear for ethnic Hutu militias since the Rwandan genocide in 1994. The rebel official stated that the arbitration centre was set up after M23 captured Goma and that newcomers sometimes agreed to leave, while newcomers and returning residents sometimes agreed to share land. Officials said that there is no land seizure policy, but they acknowledged some rebel abuses in relation to land. Reporting by Sonia Rolley, Ange Adihe Kaongo and Robbie Corey-Boulet. Editing by Timothy Heritage.
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Energy chief: EU will stick to its planned Russian oil withdrawal by 2028
Energy chief of the European Union said on Friday that Washington had not pressed him to move up this deadline. White House official: As U.S. president Donald Trump seeks an end to Russia's conflict with Ukraine, Trump told European leaders to stop buying Russian crude oil on Thursday, but did not specify a specific date. Fuel revenues, as Russia's most lucrative exports have helped Moscow fund its war. The European Union is currently negotiating legal proposals that will phase out EU imports of Russian gas and oil by January 1, 2028. Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen is responsible for EU energy policy. He said he was not personally under pressure by the U.S. government to stop Russian oil purchases before the 2028 deadline. However, he would welcome U.S. support for the EU plan. We are indirectly financing Putin's war and this must stop. "If President Trump supports that, that's a very welcome support because that's our main goal," he said. Hungary and Slovakia import between 200,000-250,000 barrels of Russian oil per day, which is equivalent to about 3% of the EU's oil demand. EU gas purchases remain much larger. According to EU figures, Europe will purchase 13% of its natural gas from Russia in 2018, down from 45% prior to Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine. The White House official has asked for a comment from the Kremlin on Trump's remarks. India accuses the West of hypocrisy for imposing punitive tariffs against the United States because of its continued purchase of Russian oil. HUNGARY AND SLOVAKIA OPPOSE PHASE OUT Hungary and Slovakia continue importing Russian crude oil via the Druzhba pipe and oppose the EU's phase out plan, claiming it will increase energy prices. Jorgensen stated that he is in discussions with both governments to address their concerns, but that if necessary, EU countries can approve phase-out plans even without them. He refused to confirm whether Brussels would provide funding or legal assurances to try to win support from the two countries. Jorgensen stated that if there are domestic reasons that prevent some countries from supporting it, this does not require unanimity. The EU proposals were designed to be approved by a consolidated majority of members countries. EU diplomats said they expect energy ministers from member countries to approve the proposals at a meeting in a month. Jorgensen and Chris Wright, the U.S. Energy Secretary, will meet in Brussels on Monday to discuss the EU's commitment to purchase $250 billion worth of U.S. supplies of energy per year as part of a U.S.-EU Trade Deal. Analysts say the pledge to buy energy is unrealistically high, in part because the EU does not have much control over energy imported by its companies. Jorgensen stated that they would be discussing options on how the EU administration and the U.S. government can ensure that the deal is implemented. The Commission, for example, has stated that it could pool the demand of European companies in order to purchase more U.S. Gas. It's obvious that our role is facilitation. "The EU is not a trader of gas," Jorgensen stated. (Reporting and editing by Jan Strupczewski, Barbara Lewis and Kate Abnett)
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Focus on US job data, European stocks and yields rise
European stocks rose on Friday, while yields on long-dated bonds eased as markets averted concerns over fiscal deficits across various countries. The S&P 500 reached a new record high on Thursday, after the weekly jobless claims data revealed more than expected. Overnight, Asian stocks followed Wall Street's upward trend. At 1127 GMT, the MSCI World Equity Index rose 0.3% for the day. Europe's STOXX 600 also gained 0.3%. The STOXX 600 is expected to finish the week with a slight gain after recovering from the dip that occurred earlier in the week. The FTSE 100 and France's CAC 40 both rose 0.3%. Wall Street was set to continue its gains, with S&P futures rising 0.2% on the day and Nasdaq Futures rising 0.5%. According to LSEG, the markets are almost certain that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point at the end of its two-day meeting. The monthly U.S. employment report, due in the afternoon session, will confirm traders' expectations. Stocks rise when the labour market is weaker, as it increases expectations that Federal Reserve will lower rates. Francesco Sandrini is the head of Amundi's multi-asset strategy. He said, "We saw yesterday a sign that there may be a weakening of jobs, which will pave the way for an agreement in September." Sandrini said that today's numbers can confirm, to a certain extent, an easing of the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced speculation about rate cuts with a dovish, but unexpected, speech at the Fed symposium held in Jackson Hole last month. Ken Crompton is the head of rates at National Australia Bank. He said that unless there's a really stellar payrolls report, it's difficult to see anything that will change the market's mind about a September rate cut. The terminal rate, and how to get there, is still up for debate. The market sentiment has improved in recent days, after stocks in Europe fell and investors were concerned about the financial state of different countries, especially Britain and France. The yields on 30-year bonds in France and the UK were lower on Friday. France's yield was 4.3873% compared to a high of 4.523% reached on Wednesday. The benchmark German 10-year yield is 2.7051%. German industrial orders fell unexpectedly in July, according to data released on Friday. The yields on Treasuries 30-years were at 4.8533%. They had reached their lowest level in three weeks, during Asian trading. The dollar index fell 0.2% to 98.023 while the euro rose 0.3% to $1.1683. The U.S. has signed an agreement to lower auto tariffs for Japan after months of negotiation. The dollar fell 0.2% against the Japanese yen. It was trading at 148.21. The oil prices are in their third consecutive day of declines. Brent crude futures dropped 0.6% to $66.56 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.8% to $60.00. The European Union energy commissioner said that the EU would welcome U.S. president Donald Trump's plans to stop buying Russian crude oil. Gold was unchanged at $3,546.24, after reaching a record high of $3,578.50 earlier in the day.
Copper prices rise on weaker dollar and hopes of stronger Chinese demand
The copper price rose on Friday, as a lower dollar and expectations of stronger demand in China boosted prices ahead of the U.S. Jobs Report later in the day that could provide greater clarity about the U.S. rate trajectory.
In open-outcry official trading, the price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange increased by 0.5% to $9.947 per ton. On Wednesday, the contract reached a five-month peak of $10.038 due to the growing expectation of a U.S. rate cut in the latter part of the month.
A lower interest rate improves prospects for metals that are growth-dependent, and a weaker U.S. dollar, which fell by 0.3% last week, makes metals priced in dollars more attractive to holders of other currencies.
JX Advanced Metals, a leading copper smelter in Japan, said that it would likely cut its copper production by thousands of tons during the fiscal year that ends in March.
Inventory in Comex warehouses in the U.S.
A copper trader stated that the premium fell at the end July when Washington removed refined copper metals from its import tariffs for some copper products. However, the drop was not enough to cause a sell-off of U.S. stock.
Stocks at the LME registered warehouses
Analysts at Macquarie wrote in a report that "Even though copper is still distorted due to the hangover from U.S. stockbuilding, LME spread has shown signs of a loosening ex China market. However, any price weakness seems to have been met with Chinese buying."
Yangshan Copper Premium
Other London metals rose in official activity by 0.8%, to $2.612 per ton. Zinc increased 0.7%, to $2.864.5; lead rose 0.5%, to $1.995; tin grew 0.3%, to $34,675; and nickel was up by 0.3%, at $15,275. (Reporting and editing by Hugh Lawson, Tomaszjanowski, Lucas Liew)
(source: Reuters)