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McGeever: Gold's rise as a reserve currency is unstoppable.

Concerns over inflation, the deterioration of the U.S. financial health, the independence of the Federal Reserve, and the geopolitical instabilities are raising concerns about the stability long-term Treasuries. These assets have traditionally been the safest assets around the globe. Many central banks have responded by turning to gold, a "barbarous" relic.

Gold and government bonds fortunes have diverged dramatically this year. This split was highlighted by the fact that bullion prices reached a new record high, and bond yields on long-dated bonds hit levels they hadn't seen for years, or in some cases ever.

U.S. Treasuries aren't selling off as quickly as European or Japanese Bonds, in part because central banks and institutions that manage foreign exchange reserves still have a strong demand for U.S. government debt.

In recent years, Treasuries' share of global reserves has essentially "tread water", while gold holdings by central banks have grown exponentially, thanks to an accelerating price and demand.

GOLD STANDARD

For the first time in 1996, gold has surpassed Treasuries as the second largest global reserve asset, after the U.S. Dollar.

According to a study by the European Central Bank, central banks hold 36,000 tonnes of gold. They have accumulated huge amounts since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and inflation spiked after the pandemic. In the last three year, they have bought more than 1,000 tons of gold each. This is a record and twice as much as the average annual purchase in the previous decade.

Gold is currently trading at over $3,500 per ounce. This represents a 35% increase in the past year. Central banks' gold reserves are worth $4.5 trillion. This is a significant amount more than the $3.5 trillion in Treasuries that central banks have.

In recent years, the share of Treasury bonds in total reserves has also been decreasing. By some measures, it is only 23%. This is down from a peak of over 30% in the 2010s and well below gold's 27%.

CHANGED DAYS

In 1996, gold was the last reserve asset to account for more than Treasury bonds. This date is important. In the late 1990s, many European countries aggressively sold gold in advance of the introduction of the euro. Unexpectedly, Britain was the largest seller, despite not even being a member of the single currency union.

In August 1999, gold fell to $250 per ounce, a 40% drop from the beginning of 1996. The "Washington Agreement", which was adopted by central banks in September 1999, effectively capped their sales.

The late 1990s were not gold-friendly. The late 1990s were a time of steady growth, low inflation, moderate macro volatility and the rarest occurrence - an American budget surplus.

In the last three decades, global macro-environment has changed dramatically, and is now much more favorable to gold. Treasuries are in relative decline.

Tavi Costa is a macro-strategist at Crescat. He says that there are many parallels with what we see today and in the 1970s, when inflation, monetary instability and geopolitical changes made gold an important strategic reserve asset.

Costa says that the fact that foreign central bank reserves now exceed U.S. Treasury bonds is "a significant milestone" and signals a longer-term structural change to reserve management. What we're seeing could be the beginnings of a major realignment of global reserve composition.

Could gold regain the 75% share it had in central banks' reserves assets during the 1980s and 1990s? This is unlikely, and would require years of double-digit inflation and a prolonged recession.

What will stop the yellow-metal footprint from growing? This would require that inflation pressures and geopolitical risks, as well as economic uncertainty, to be significantly reduced. Reserve managers will continue to buy gold because none of this is likely in the short term.

You would not bet against that.

(source: Reuters)