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Gold recovers from a two-week low after thin trading sparks volatile movements
The price of gold rose on Tuesday after a sharp drop in the previous session. Thin 'year-end' trade exacerbated volatility. Traders expect fundamental factors to drive precious metals up to new heights by 2026. As of 0541 GMT on Monday, spot gold was up by 1.1% to $4,378.29 an ounce after reaching a record-high of $4,549.71 last Friday. On Monday, it fell to its lowest level since December 17, marking the sharpest percentage decline since October 21. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery were up by 1.1% to $4,392.0/oz. Kyle Rodda is a senior analyst with Capital.com. He said: "The fact that we have had such a substantial selloff since Monday's open... just goes to show the significant volatility, probably compounded because of thinner trading conditions due to the holiday season." On Monday, the relative strength indexes for gold and silver both fell from a state of 'overbought.' Bullion has risen 66% in 2025. Gold's rise this year has been fueled by a number of factors, including interest rate cuts, bets on further U.S. policy ease, geopolitical conflict, central bank demand, and increased holdings of exchange-traded fund. The traders expect the U.S. to cut rates at least twice next year. In a low-interest rate environment, non-yielding investments tend to perform well. Silver spot was up 3.7% to $74.85 an ounce after reaching a record high of $83.62 the previous session. On Monday, silver posted its largest daily loss since August 11, 2020. Metals like copper and zinc have seen a 154% increase in value year-to date, outpacing gold. This is due to their inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list, low inventories, and supply constraints. Kelvin Wong is a senior market analyst at OANDA. He said: "I expect the longer-term rally for both gold & silver to continue, with price targets for the next six month at $5,010/oz gold and $90.90 silver." Spot platinum increased 3.1%, to $2174.91 an ounce. It dropped the most in a single day after reaching an all-time record high of $2478.50 on Monday. Palladium dropped 16% in value on Monday, and its price fell 0.2%, to $1,614.0 an ounce. Ishaan arora, Rashmi aich, Harikrishnan Nair, and Sonia Cheema edited the article.
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Silver, gold stabilized after sharp decline
Investors counted "bumper gains" heading into the year-end trading, while gold and silver found their feet after a sharp drop from record highs?took a little froth out of precious metals' searing rise. The oil prices held on to their gains overnight as Russia accused Ukraine of attacking the residence of President Vladimir Putin. Although Moscow did not provide any evidence to support its claims, this is a blow for U.S. peace efforts. Donald Trump also added to the global geopolitical tensions when he said that he would support another major attack on Iran. China began a 10-hour live-firing exercise around Taiwan on February 2. Silver and other precious metals experienced volatile price swings over the weekend due to a lack of liquidity across most markets. Silver fell 8.7% after hitting a record of $84 an ounce. This was the largest one-day drop since August 2020. It brought gold and copper with it. The white metal rose 2.5% on Tuesday to $74.1 an ounce, and is still on course for a 156% annual gain. Gold gained 0.7%, to $4,361 an ounce after falling 4.4% overnight. Tony Sycamore is an analyst at IG Sydney. He said that the initial gap in the price of silver was probably due to stop losses, panic buying, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange increasing margin requirements. The move was short-lived, with no buyers at these high levels. "We have seen a cooling of the precious metals, but I do not think that this trend is over. We still got deficits. We still got nation stockpiling. "We have export restrictions," Sycamore said. This generational bubble has ended? Not sure. "Jury's out on that." The MSCI broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan, which includes Japan, rose 0.1% on Tuesday and is set to achieve a gain of 26.7% for the year, its best performance in 2017. The Nikkei 225 index of Japan shares fell 0.1%, but it was still up 26.7% for the year. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose by 0.4%, while China's blue chip index rose by 0.2%. In Asia, all U.S. stock futures and European stock futures were largely unchanged. Wall Street?finished down overnight as heavyweight tech stocks retreated after last week's gains. Even so, U.S. stock prices were still on track to finish 2025 at record highs after a turbulent year marked by tariff wars and central bank policy, as well as simmering geopolitical conflicts. DOLLAR?S?BAD YEAR The dollar was stable on the currency market ahead of the Federal Reserve minutes for the December meeting, which are expected to show a central bank that is divided and unsure about its policy direction next year. The dollar index is set to experience its biggest annual drop in eight years, a decline of almost 10%. The yen was hovering at?156.06 to the dollar, a little away from the 158-160 range that could prompt intervention by Japanese authorities. The euro was at $1.1777 and on track for a 13.7% gain this year. The U.S. Dollar has been impacted by the prospect of further rate cuts next year and this has helped Treasuries to rally, particularly at the short end. The yield on two-year bonds fell 1 basis point, to 3.4586%. This is the fourth consecutive session that they have fallen. They were down nearly 80 basis points for the year. The 10-year bond yield was set to drop by 46 basis points annually. After a gain of over 2%, oil prices remained largely stable on Tuesday. Brent crude futures were unchanged at $61.92 per barrel after a 2.1% increase on Monday. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude fell 0.1% to $58.01 per barrel.
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Investors seek clarity over Russia-Ukraine negotiations, but oil prices remain unchanged
Tuesday's oil prices were unchanged after a rise of over 2% the previous day. Investors sought clarification on Ukraine peace negotiations to gauge potential supply disruptions. Brent crude futures, for delivery in February, expiring on Tuesday, fell 2 cents to $61.92 per barrel at 0314 GMT. The March contract, which is more active, was down 5 cents at $61.44. West Texas Intermediate crude oil in the United States fell 5 cents to $58.03. Brent and WTI benchmarks closed more than 2% higher the previous session, after Moscow accused Kyiv that it was targeting President Vladimir Putin's residence. This stoked fears of supply disruptions. Kyiv dismissed Moscow's accusations as baseless, and meant to undermine the?peace talks. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he was angry by the details of a?alleged attack after a telephone call with Putin. Oil prices could be affected by the escalating geopolitical conflicts, even though Trump has repeatedly stated that a peace deal is near. Ed Meir, Marex analyst, said: "I believe the markets sense that a deal will be difficult to achieve." The Middle East was also a concern for traders after Trump stated that the United States would support a major strike against Iran if Tehran re-built its ballistic missile or nuclear weapons program. Trump warned the Palestinian militant group Hamas that it would suffer severe consequences if they did not disarm. He also said he wanted to "move on to the second phase" of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which was reached in October following a 'two-year war in Gaza. Analysts say that despite increased fears of supply disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions there is still a perception of an "oversupplied" global market, which could limit prices. Marex's Meir?said that prices would be trending downwards in 2026 because of a "growing glut of oil." "Given crosscurrents between?U.S. led peace efforts, persistent oversupply worries versus simmering tensions in geopolitical affairs - we expect WTI will continue to trade at $55-60 in the near-term," IG analysts stated in a Tuesday note. (Reporting from Anushree mukherjee, Bengaluru; Sudarshan Varadhan, Singapore; Editing by Shri Navaratnam & Kate Mayberry).
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Iron ore prices fall as shipments increase
The price of iron ore futures fell on Tuesday as increased shipments by major suppliers Australia and Brazil dampened sentiment. However, lingering hope that steelmakers in China, the top consumer, would restock their cargoes, limited the losses. The May contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed morning trade at 790.5 Yuan ($112.92) per metric ton, a decrease of 0.25%. On?Monday, the contract reached its highest level since December 3. By 0417 GMT, the benchmark January iron ore at the Singapore Exchange had fallen by 0.22% to $105.55 per ton. In the previous session, it reached its highest level since November 27 at $106.55. Data from Mysteel, a consultancy, showed that iron ore shipments to Australia and Brazil, two of the world's largest suppliers, increased 8.6% in a week during December 22-28. Analysts predict that Chinese steel mills will book more cargoes over the next few weeks to cover production requirements during the Lunar New Year break, which lasts a week in February. Analysts say that Chinese developer Vanke has received approval from its bondholders to extend the grace period on the repayment of the 3.7 billion yuan loan, thereby removing the risk of default. The property market in China was the biggest steel consumer, but long-term?problems in this sector weighed on steel consumption and feedstock prices. Coking coal and coke, two other?steelmaking components, gained a lot of ground on the DCE. Steel benchmarks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been moving sideways. Rebar gained 0.16%, while stainless steel gained 1,55%. Hot-rolled coils slipped 0.06%, while wire rods fell by 1.59%.
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Silver recovers from a two-week low and gold bounces back
On Tuesday, gold rose to recover from a two week low that was hit the previous session. This is due to a 'profit-taking at year-end which sparked a wide pullback of precious metals. As of 0322 GMT spot gold was up by 0.7% to $4,363.79 an ounce after reaching a record-high of $4,549.71 last Friday. On Monday, it fell to its lowest level since December 17, and also suffered its biggest daily loss?since October 21, U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery were up 0.8% to $4,377.80/oz. Kelvin Wong is a senior market analyst with OANDA. He said that the earlier run was overextended within the last week. This makes the precious metals more vulnerable to the leveraged positions being squeezed at the bottom. On Monday, the relative strength indices (RSIs) for gold and silver both fell from their overbought levels. Bullion is on a stellar rise in 2025. It has already risen 66%. Gold's rise this year has been fueled by interest rate cuts, bets on further easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve and geopolitical conflict, strong demand from central bankers, and increasing holdings in exchange traded funds. The traders expect two rate cuts at least next year. In a low interest rate environment, non-yielding investments tend to perform well. Silver spot was up 3% to $74.41 an ounce after reaching a record high of $83.62 the previous session. On Monday, silver registered its biggest daily loss since August 11 2020. Silver is up 154% in the past year, outpacing gold. This has been attributed to its inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list, low inventories, and supply constraints. Wong said, "I expect the longer-term rally for both gold and silver to continue with price targets of $5,010/oz gold, and $90.90 silver in the next six month." Spot Platinum increased 1.1% to $2132.86 an ounce. It dropped the most ever in one day on Monday after reaching an all-time record high of $2478.50. Palladium rose 1.1%, to $1,634.29 an ounce after it dropped 16% in value on Monday. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich, Harikrishnan Nair, and Ishaan arora)
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China pledges to stabilize grain and edible oil production at key meeting
China must stabilize grain and edible oils production, improve 'grain varieties' and enhance quality. This was the message of state-run news agency Xinhua on Tuesday following a meeting of the annual Central Rural Work Conference held from December 29-30. The group that sets China's agricultural priority has pledged to "enhance capacity for diversified supply" and promote high-quality development through?zoned- and categorised-planning". China relies heavily on imports to feed the population. Tensions with U.S.A., its'major trading partner in agriculture, have led it to invest more in seed technology and machinery. A Xinhua report on the meeting stated that "we must not relax our effort?in grain cultivation, promote?the?integration of high quality land, high quality seeds, high quality machinery, and high-quality farming techniques to enhance the agricultural production capacity and the overall production and the quality." In the readout, China said it would "make every possible effort" to promote stable employment and increase farmer's income as Beijing seeks food security despite economic challenges and urbanization pressures. The readout said that China will also launch province-wide programs to extend rural land use?contracts another 30 years, after the current?contracts expire in 2027. China's total output of grain has reached a record in this year, with a 1.2% increase from 2024, reaching 714.9 millions tons. This is according to data released by the statistics bureau earlier this month.
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Cavaliers beat Spurs with a 4th quarter outburst
Jarrett Allen scored 27 points, grabbed 10 rebounds, and led a decisive run in the fourth quarter as the Cleveland Cavaliers defeated the San Antonio Spurs 113-101 on Monday. San Antonio was ahead by a bucket going into the final quarter, but fell apart during a stretch where the Cavaliers turned an initial three-point deficit to a 101-89 advantage with 5:05 remaining. Jaylon Tyson hit back-to-back three-pointers to start the crucial run, while Darius Garland scored five points and Donovan Mitchell added another five. Spurs lost their second consecutive game after eight straight wins. Evan Mobley scored?16 for Cavaliers to end a losing streak of two games. Garland had 15 points and 11 assists, Tyson, De'Andre Hunter and Mitchell each scored 11 points, while Dean Wade and Dean Wade both hit 10 points. Victor Wembanyama, who led the Spurs with 26 and 14 rebounds. Stephon Castle scored 15 points. De'Aaron Fox had 14 points. Dylan Harper had 11 points. Keldon Johnson scored 10. San Antonio scored a 14-3 run, capped off by a Wembanyama three-pointer, to erase a 10 point deficit and gain a 26-25 lead after 12 minutes. Early in the second quarter, the teams were alternating. Two Johnson free throws at 4:16 left in the quarter put the Spurs ahead 43-42. A 12-0 run punctuated with two Luke Kornet free throws at?2:03 gave San Antonio a 10-point advantage. The Spurs were ahead by 11 points when?Cleveland ended the first half with a Sam Merrill 3-pointer and two Mitchell free throws to reduce its deficit to 55-49 at the break. Wembanyama scored 11 points before halftime, while Castle added another 11. Allen led Cleveland with 12 points. After a series of free throws by Fox and Wembanyama in the final two minutes, Mobley's two free throws with 0.7 seconds left in the quarter brought Cleveland within 78-76. Two Mobley free-throws, with 0.7 seconds remaining in the third quarter, brought Cleveland to within 78 76. Fox and Wembanyama had made a series free throws over the last two minutes. Field Level Media
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Shanghai copper prices fall due to weaker Chinese demand and profit-booking
Shanghai copper fell on Tuesday as profit-taking, a weaker Chinese economy and a general risk-off trend weighed on the markets. As of?0330 GMT the most traded contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.96% to $14,064.78, per metric ton. It briefly touched 96,010, its lowest level since December 25. Losses in the first minutes of trading have narrowed, after gains in the benchmark 3-month copper at the London Metal Exchange which rose 2.19% to $12,489.50 per ton. Traders said that lower copper prices encouraged dip-buying and helped reduce losses. Shanghai copper prices fell as profit-taking and a weaker Chinese demand due to high prices led to the decline. Yangshan Copper Premium A measure of Chinese appetite for imported copper fell to $53 per ton on Sunday, down from $55 the previous day, but still an improvement over below $40 since mid October. Copper was also impacted by the broader move to a risk off stance among investors. Gold and silver both saw a decline from Monday's record highs. Investors continue to watch the U.S. Federal Reserve, after President Donald Trump threatened to sue Fed chair Jerome Powell on Monday. They are also waiting for the minutes of the December meeting of the central banks to be published on Tuesday. Tin was the most affected among other SHFE metals. The Shanghai contract fell 4.84%, to 325 780?yuan per ton. Stock levels continue to increase, despite the high tin price. Tin stocks that are available for delivery According to Friday's SHFE weekly stock report, the number of sheds in SHFE rose to 8,477 tonnes last week. The benchmark three-month?tin rose, however, by 1.59%, to $41,390 per ton. Nickel surged. The Shanghai contract for the most active nickel rose 3.71%, to 132200 yuan per ton after reaching a nine-month high. The benchmark nickel for three months also rose, rising 4.15% and reaching $16,470 per ton. After breaching the $16,500 mark to hit a high of $16,540 in nine months. The reported plan by the Indonesian government of reducing nickel production in 2026 is what has caused the recent strength of nickel. Other SHFE metals include zinc, which gained 0.56% and lead, which added 0.40%. ($1 = 7.0026 Chinese yuan renminbi) (Reporting by China C&E Team; Editing by Rashmi Aich) ($1 = 7.0026 Chinese Yuan Renminbi)
Andy Home: Copper's high tariffs fail to lift other LME Metals
Doctor Copper isn't the same as it was before Donald Trump, President of the United States, announced an investigation in February into U.S. imported products.
Tariff trade has thrown the global supply chain into disarray, causing a feast in the U.S. but famine elsewhere.
London Metal Exchange (LME), copper is expected to close the first half with a gain 12%. Only the wild tin markets will beat it.
However, the rest of the LME is still reeling from Trump's "Liberation Day", broader tariffs.
The precious metals have been boosted by geopolitical turmoil and trade, but the industrial metals are still largely in the same place at mid-year as concerns grow about the impact of tariffs on global manufacturing.
The LME scorecard for the first half 2025.
COPPER – FEAST AND FAMILY
CME's U.S. Copper contract currently trades at a premium of $1200 per metric tonne over the LME international price.
Tariff trade has been extremely volatile in the past few months. However, the arbitrage window is still sucking up metals from around the globe.
CME stocks have exploded and LME stock are in decline as physical copper is being redirected into the U.S. LME spreads are becoming turbulent as inventory shrinks. Cash-to-three month period is in steep reverse.
Market participants expect Chinese smelters will increase exports in order to fill supply-chain holes, but the London Copper market remains a hazardous place for bears until this happens.
The U.S. government will decide whether or not to impose import tariffs. This is a sign of more turmoil ahead of the deadline in November for the Section 232 investigations into U.S. imported goods to be completed.
WILD TIN
London's tin market is a roller coaster so far this season. Early April, three-month tin reached a high of $38,395 a ton. After the metals meltdown on "Liberation Day", it fell to $28,925.
Due to the persistent pressure on supply, tin is now back above $33,500 a ton. The Bisie mine, in the Democratic Republic of Congo was quickly reopened after a short disruption. However, the Man Maw Mine in Myanmar continues to be affected by a longer-term disruption.
Wa State authorities, who control the Man Maw Mine, have been in negotiations to obtain new licenses that will allow it to be reopened after almost two years.
The flow of tin to China's smelters is still a trickle.
China's imports of tin-concentrate fell by 36.5% between January and May, and the country's metal smelters feel the pinch. According to Shanghai Metal Market, refinery production in June was down 15% year-over-year.
Since the middle of April the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin stocks have been steadily declining, while the LME inventories have halved in the first half year.
Tin is the only LME-listed metal, other than copper, that trades in a significant backwardation. This shows the supply pressures in the market.
ALUMINIUM SPLIT
Trump's import tariffs of 50% have fractured the aluminium market, but their impact is more visible in the premiums for the U.S. Midwest than the arbitrage between similar CME and LME contracts.
The LME price is now around $1,250 higher than what U.S. customers pay for their metal. The premiums are falling everywhere else, partly because of displaced metal flows as well as weak demand in Europe and Asia.
The recent London market action has largely been a massive tug-of war for the available metal, against a background of falling exchange stock.
It's difficult to distinguish the signal from noise when using aluminium.
The LME's three-month price rose from $2,335 to $2600 per ton in April, but the gain year-to date is only a modest 3.0%, falling short of analysts' expectations for the beginning of 2025.
NICKEL WEIGHED BY SURPLUS WEIGHED DOWN
LME Nickel also ends the first half 2025 with little change from its January start point.
The LME Nickel Stocks fell in May, for the first since March 2024. This is a sign of a possible slowdown in the accumulation of inventory.
How long it will last remains to be determined.
Nickel's electric dream has faded, as Chinese electric vehicles manufacturers have switched to non-nickel batteries. Indonesia continues to increase production and generate more metal.
Analysts at Macquarie Bank say that the price of LME nickel three-month is just above $15,000 per ton, which is about the same as the cost to refine nickel from Indonesian nickel-pig iron.
While the price of nickel may not be as high as it is now, any recovery will depend on Indonesia's ability to curb its growing nickel production sector.
No one is holding their breath.
ZINC WINDS DROPPING, LEAD GEARS ON.
Due to its close relationship with the automotive batteries sector, the lead market has been cushioned from the tariff turmoil of this year.
Lead is currently entering its seasonal peak demand period, which occurs when temperatures in the northern hemisphere are high and cause an increase in battery failures.
LME lead has risen 6% since the beginning of the year. It is now catching up with zinc, the LME metal that continues to be the underperformer.
According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, world zinc mine production increased by 5.1% in January-April.
This supply surge has led to an increase in refined production, especially in China. The Group estimates that the global refined metals market recorded a 151,000-ton surplus of supply in the period.
You don't need to look any further to see why galvanising is in such disfavor. It has fallen by 6% since 2025.
These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
(source: Reuters)