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China's imports of iron ore are rising even as steel is struggling: Russell
China's imports of iron ore are expected to be their highest month in this year in June, a sign of resilience not mirrored by the steel industry's sluggishness. According to analysts LSEG & Kpler, China is expected to import nearly 110 million metric tonnes of this key raw material for steel. Kpler estimates that 109.56 millions tons of cargo will arrive in June, while LSEG predicts 109.1million. It would be an increase of about 11% over May's official imported 98.13 millions tons, and the best month since December's 112,49 million tons which was the second highest on record. Why are Chinese steel mills, traders and steel producers buying more iron ore despite the fact that both the domestic and international steel industry is showing signs of slowdown? Early in June, spot iron ore prices fell to their lowest level in eight months. Since the peak of $107.81 per ton in 2025 on February 12, the trend for iron ore futures at the Singapore Exchange has been downward. On June 18, they dropped to $94.17 per ton, the lowest level since September 30, before slightly recovering to finish at $94.30 a ton Wednesday. It's too late for the low of June to affect imports in this month. The lag between cargoes being arranged and delivered is too great. However, it's important to note that the Singapore price continues to drop steadily from its previous peak at the end of May. Restocking inventories may also have contributed to the higher imports of June. These stocks have been on a downward trend. SteelHome consultants SteelHome monitor port stockpiles In the week ending June 6, exports fell to their lowest level in 16 months, at 132 million tonnes. The strong imports so far in this month helped boost inventories to a total of 133.4 million tonnes in the week ending June 13. However, this is still below the 146.6 millions from the same period in 2024. Iron ore imports may continue to grow in the coming weeks but there are questions about how long they can do so if the steel industry is weak. STEEL SAGS According to data released by the Chinese government on June 16, China's steel production dropped dramatically in May, falling 6.9% from last year to 85.55 millions tons. In the first five month of this year, steel production fell 1.7% to 431.63 million tons. The state-backed China Iron and Steel Association said last week that the output was expected to drop 4% from 2024 this year. China's steel production is being affected by the struggles of its key property sector. This sector has shown little signs of positive response to the recent stimulus measures. China's new house prices dropped 0.2% in May, after showing no growth during the preceding month. Calculations based on the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on 16 June were able to confirm this. The latest statement from Donald Trump suggests that up to 55% of all imports will be taxed. The price of steel has also fallen. On Wednesday, Shanghai Exchange rebar contract prices ended at 2,982 Yuan ($414.74) per ton, down 14% since the year's peak, which was 3,466 Yuan on February 5. On June 3, the contract dropped to 2,912 Yuan per ton, its lowest level since February 2020. Exports, which increased by almost 10% in May compared to the same month last year, amounted to 10,58 million tons. Steel exports for the first five month of the year rose by 8.9%, to 48.47 millions tons. This is a record. China's steel exports may be a victim of its own success, as other countries increase their protectionist measures. India and the United States are two recent examples. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Oil prices fall as investors consider the possibility of US intervention in Iran/Israel conflict
Oil prices dropped on Thursday as investors hesitated to make new investments after President Donald Trump sent mixed signals about possible U.S. intervention in the Israel-Iran Conflict, and the Federal Reserve kept interest rates the same. Brent crude futures dropped 20 cents or 0.26% to $76.5 per barrel at 0421 GMT after gaining 0.3% the previous session, when high volatility caused prices to fall up as much as 2.7%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude for July dropped 4 cents or 0.05%, to $75.10 per barrel. It had previously risen 0.4%, but then fell as much as 2.4%. The contract for July expires this Friday, and the contract for August, which is more active, was down 8 cents or 0.11% to $73.42 per barrel. In a note to clients, Tony Sycamore said that there is still a healthy risk premium built into the price, as traders wait to see if the next phase of the Israel-Iran Conflict is a U.S. military strike or peace negotiations. Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday that a geopolitical premium of $10 per barrel was justified, given the lower Iranian oil supply and the risk of a wider disruption which could push Brent crude over $90. Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he might or might not decide if the U.S. would join Israel's attacks against Iran. On Thursday, the conflict entered its seventh day. Analysts said that direct U.S. participation would escalate the conflict and increase the risk of attacks on energy infrastructure in the area. Priyanka Sackdeva, Senior Market Analyst at Phillip Nova, said that because of Trump's unpredictable foreign policy, the markets remain jittery and are awaiting more firm signals that may influence the global oil supply or regional stability. Iran is the third largest producer of crude oil among the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). It extracts about 3.3 millions barrels of crude oil per day. Around 19 million barrels of oil per day and oil products pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which runs along Iran's south coast. There is widespread concern that the fighting may disrupt trade. Separately the U.S. Federal Reserve held its interest rates at the same level on Wednesday, but penciled in two reductions by the end the year. Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, said that any cuts will be "data-dependent", and that they expect accelerated inflation due to Trump's proposed import tariffs. Lower interest rates could stimulate the economy and increase demand for oil. However, this could also lead to an increase in inflation. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Christopher Cushing and Colleen Li)
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Galp Secures Three Exploration Blocks in Brazil
Portugal's Galp has been awarded three offshore blocks as part of Brazil’s fifth Open Permanent Concession bid round.Galp acquired offshore early-stage exploration blocks P-M-1670/1672/1741 in the Pelotas basin, in the southern region of the country.The awarded consortium is composed by Petrobras, as operator with 70%, and Galp with a 30% interest.The gross aggregate signature bonus for the blocks amounts to approximately $2.08 million.The fifth cycle of the Permanent Concession Offer hosted today by the Brazilian National Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANP).
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EEW SPC Delivers Last Three Monopiles for Sofia Offshore Wind Farm
EEW Special Pipe Constructions (EEW SPC) has loaded out the last three monopiles for RWE’s 1.4 GW Sofia offshore wind farm, being built off the U.K.’s North East coast.The total of 100 monopiles, with weights of 1,143 to 1,521 tons and lengths of up to 91.8 meters, were loaded onto a barge without incident using the RoRo (roll on/roll off) method with EEW's own SPMTs.In the meantime, 90 foundations have been transported to the installation site in the North Sea and installed by the transport and installation company Van Oord using the ship Aeolus.The Sofia wind farm will go into operation in 2026 and will then produce green electricity for around 1.2 million British households.Currently under construction on Dogger Bank, 195 kilometers from the nearest point on the U.K.’s north east coast, it will comprise 100 Siemens Gamesa 14 MW offshore wind turbines.First Turbine Stands Tall at RWE’s Sofia Offshore Wind FarmSofia Offshore Wind Farm Buzzing with Construction Activity
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Dalian iron ore continues to decline as China property slump weighs
The price of iron ore futures eased on Thursday for a sixth consecutive session, as the protracted property crisis in China continued to weigh down on demand prospects. As of 0300 GMT, the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 0.36% lower. It was priced at 692.5 Yuan ($96.32), per metric ton. The benchmark July ore traded on the Singapore Exchange at $92.35 per ton. Hexun Futures, a broker, stated in a report that the Chinese downstream demand has entered its off-season and inventories are continuing to build. Steelhome data shows that the total iron ore stocks across Chinese ports increased by 1.06% in a week to 133.4 millions tons as of June 13. Hexun added that the market has become cautious and real estate sales have slowed. Official data released on Monday showed that China's new house prices dropped in May, continuing a stagnation of two years. Goldman Sachs projected late Monday that demand for new homes will remain below the 2017 market peak in the coming years. This suggests that China, the second largest economy in the world, is in for a prolonged property slump. The dollar index (which measures the currency in relation to six other units) was at 98.957, and it is expected to gain 0.8% for the week. This will be its best weekly performance since the end of February. Dollar-denominated investments are less affordable for holders of currencies other than the greenback. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, fell by 1.07% and 0.69 %, respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed.
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As Middle East tensions increase demand, gold prices are on the rise
Gold prices rose on Thursday as the Middle East tensions boosted demand for safe-haven assets. However, the cautious U.S. Federal Reserve stance regarding future rate reductions kept gains in check. As of 0215 GMT, spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,376.48 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.4% to $3393.70. Gold has seen a modest rise as we wait for the next step in the Israel-Iran dispute. "If the U.S. decides to directly get involved in the conflict, this could increase the geopolitical risks," KCM Trade's Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer stated. As geopolitical tensions increased, U.S. president Donald Trump refused to confirm whether the U.S. will join Israel in its bombardment of Iranian missile and nuclear sites on Wednesday. Residents of Tehran were forced to flee the city as air strikes continued. Two U.S. government officials said on Wednesday that the U.S. military had moved aircraft and ships out of bases in the Middle East which could be vulnerable to an Iranian attack. Gold is used to store value in times of geopolitical or financial uncertainty. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Fed policymakers are still expecting to cut rates by a half-percentage-point this year but have slowed down the pace. Jerome Powell, Fed chair, warned against placing too much emphasis on this forecast, warning that "meaningful" inflation is coming as import tariffs increase. "The Fed wasn't as dovish and hawkish as many had hoped. I would argue Powell was just a little more hawkish than most people wanted. Matt Simpson, senior analyst at City Index, said that the U.S. Dollar is likely oversold and this will likely cap gold gains over the next couple of weeks. Platinum rose 1.5% to 1,342.36, and palladium increased 0.6% to 1,055.18.
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Copper prices remain flat as traders evaluate geopolitical risk and supply constraints
The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) and London Metal Exchange (LME) saw a largely flat price for copper on Thursday as the market focused mainly on the developments in the Israel/Iran conflict, while a tight supply supported the price. The LME’s three-month contract for copper was almost flat at $9,657.50 a metric ton as of 0107 GMT. SHFE’s most traded copper contract also showed little change, with a decline of 30 yuan, to 78 590 yuan (about $10,930.31) per ton. Investors closely followed tensions in the Middle East as U.S. president Donald Trump kept the rest of the world guessing as to whether Washington would join Israel’s bombardment against Iranian nuclear sites. The conflict entered its seventh-day. ANZ stated that in the long term, "any sustained increase in energy prices will likely end up weighing on the copper markets due to the higher costs to producers," Copper supplies are limited, and stocks are low In LME-registered storage warehouses, 107,350 tonnes has dropped 60% since March and is at its lowest level since May 2024. The U.S. Central Bank held interest rates at the same level on Wednesday, signaling that borrowing costs will likely continue to decline in 2025 (nL6N3SL0HH), while the U.S. Dollar Index traded higher against the majority of major currencies. Metals prices tend to rise when the dollar increases, limiting gains in price. LME aluminium remained flat at $2.546, tin rose by 0.3% to $22,465, while zinc gained 0.1%, reaching $2,640. Lead increased 0.1%, to $1.995.5. Nickel increased 0.1%, to $15,065. SHFE nickel rose by 0.6% to 119.030 yuan per ton. Tin increased 0.3% to 264,240 yuan. Aluminium advanced 0.2% at 20,680, lead advanced 0.2% at 16,870, and zinc fell 0.1% to 21980 yuan. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories. (GMT 1100 UK BOE June Bank Rate)
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Nippon Steel CEO downplays risk of management freedom under US golden share
Nippon Steel's CEO stated on Thursday that the U.S. Government's ownership in a golden stake in U.S. Steel would not prevent it from taking management actions as it sees fit. Eiji Hashimoto spoke at a Tokyo press conference a day after Japan’s top steelmaker completed its $14.9 billion purchase of U.S. Steel. The companies confirmed they agreed to grant the U.S. Government unusual powers, which helped to end Nippon Steel’s 18-month struggle for a deal. The agreement on national security signed with the Trump Administration gives the government an economic golden share, and the president has the power to name board members. Hashimoto replied, "It will not prevent us from doing whatever we want," when asked about the impact of golden shares on management freedom. He said that Nippon Steel had proposed the golden share. After a long and rocky road to approval, spurred on by high-level opposition from politicians, the final deal reached with the U.S. Government represents an unusually high level of control that the companies conceded to save the deal. The golden share grants the U.S. Government a veto on any future acquisitions, relocation of U.S. Steel from Pittsburgh, a change in name, or a possible transfer of jobs abroad. Nippon Steel is also required to invest approximately $11 billion by 2028 in the U.S. as part of the agreement signed with the Administration. Hashimoto stated that he did not see any problem with this requirement, as the company intends to expand its investments beyond current plans. He said that the Trump administration's shift in policy towards higher tariffs increased the strategic value of the U.S. Steel purchase. (Reporting and writing by Yuka Obayashi, Editing by Sonali Paul; Written by Chang-Ran kim)
Ternium, a steelmaker, wants a stronger USMCA in the face of tariffs
Ternium, an American steelmaker with a large business in Mexico, demanded on Wednesday that the terms of a trade agreement for the region be strengthened ahead of a review. This was despite the current challenges posed by steel tariffs levied by President Donald Trump's government.
Why it's important
Steel products are subject to a 50% tariff on all shipments from Mexico into the U.S., but shipments from Mexico under the U.S. Mexico-Canada (USMCA), trade agreement, are exempted from tariffs.
Last week, it was reported that the U.S. is negotiating with Mexico to reduce or remove steel tariffs for imports of a certain amount.
CONTEXT
Some officials think it could happen sooner. The USMCA agreement is due for review in 2019. Ternium, in a presentation made to analysts on Wednesday in New York, pushed for stricter "rules" of origin as part of this review to protect the area against unfair trade.
Steelmakers accuse China of dumping, a practice in which it sells its product overseas below the market value. Products can travel through another country to reach their final destination. This makes their origin difficult to determine.
KEY QUOTE
Analysts at J.P. Morgan wrote to clients that "while management acknowledges adverse effects on global economic growth, they see the U.S. tariffs as beneficial for globalization over the long term."
By the Numbers
Ternium reported that the U.S. sent 2.28 million more metric tons of steel to Mexico in 2024 than Mexico did to the U.S., despite the fact that the U.S. had previously accused Mexico's government of over-supplying its domestic steel market.
What's Next?
Management stated that Ternium aims to increase its market share on the local Mexican market in coming years. It said that Chinese imports are continuing to pressurize the Brazilian market.
The analysts at J.P. Morgan said that Ternium may also purchase the remaining shares in Brazil's Usiminas. However, this is not a top priority for the moment. (Reporting and editing by Kylie Madry.
(source: Reuters)