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OPEC+ has agreed to a 411,000 bpd increase in July oil production, according to sources
OPEC+ has agreed to increase July oil production by 411,000 barrels a day (bpd), the same as it did in May and June. Due to the sensitive nature of the subject, all sources declined to provide their names. Eight OPEC+ member countries are removing 2.2 million bpd of voluntary curbs that they imposed over and above earlier cuts. OPEC+ is a group of OPEC members, as well as allies like Russia. The current round of production increases began in April. Some of the eight producers are asked to reduce their production to compensate for past overproduction. Kazakhstan said Thursday it would not reduce production, leading to speculation that OPEC+ could go for a larger increase in July than 411,000 bpd. In April, oil prices dropped to a 4-year low. They fell below $60 per barrel as OPEC+ announced that it would triple its production increase in May. Meanwhile, tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump raised fears about the global economy. Prices were just below $63 per barrel on Friday. According to a Friday poll, the average global oil demand will grow by 775,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025. The International Energy Agency, in its most recent outlook, predicted an increase of 740,000 barrels per day.
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BP Lines Up Noble Rig for North Sea CCS Drilling Job
BP has hired Noble Corporation’s Noble Innovator jack-up rig for a drilling job related to carbon capture and storage (CCS) project in the North Sea.Under the contract, Noble Innovator will drill six firm wells for the Northern Endurance Partnership (NEP) project in the North Sea.BP provides operatorship services to NEP, with project partners Equinor and TotalEnergies. The contract is expected to start in the third quarter of 2026.It also contains an option for two additional wells, and is in direct continuation of Noble’s current contract with BP.To remind, the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) issued its first carbon storage permit to NEP for the CCS project off the coast of Teeside in December 2024. The partners also reached a financial investment close for the execution of the project.Permits and Funding in Place for UK’s First Offshore CCS ProjectThe project has the potential to store up to 100 million tonnes of CO2. The first CO2 injection could come as early as 2027, according to NSTA, with a permitted injection rate of 4 million tonnes per year.Averaged over a duration of 25 years, this could reach a total of 100 million tonnes, equivalent to taking 58.8 million cars off the road for a year. "Supporting the Northern Endurance Partnership advances our role in delivering the well infrastructure behind the UK’s net-zero ambitions. This award reinforces our leadership in offshore carbon storage, and we value the continued trust that bp places in our crews,” said Blake Denton, SVP Marketing and Contracts at Noble Corporation.
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Trump praises Nippon Steel for being a 'great partner" of U.S. Steel at a raucous rally
At a Friday political rally, U.S. president Donald Trump praised an "agreement", between Nippon Steel & U.S. Steel. He did not clarify if he intended to approve their diplomatically sensitive merger. Trump announced that the American Steel Company would remain American on a Pittsburgh stage, Pennsylvania, decorated with signs praising "American steel." He also praised its new Japanese partner. It's unclear if he has given his approval to a merger that would give Nippon ownership as requested by the companies, or if he has formally approved the deal. Trump said to more than 1,600 people wearing hard hats, "We are here today to celebrate an agreement that will ensure that this storied American Company remains an American company." You're going stay an American business, you know that right? We're going have a great partnership." The Japanese company's proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel in 2023 divided Pennsylvania, a politically significant state, and its heavily-unionized blue-collar workers. It also brought tension to the otherwise friendly relationship between Tokyo and Washington. The transaction's supporters hoped that Trump's trip would bring an end to a turbulent 18-month attempt by Nippon Steel, which was plagued by opposition from the union leadership and by two national security reviews. Trump stated that the company will be "controlled" by the USA, that there would be no layoffs and that Nippon Steel would invest billions in modernizing U.S. mills to increase their production. He announced a new plan that will be implemented by next week. Tariffs are being raised Import steel duty increased from 25% to 50% Trump's comments on Friday did not shed any further light on whether or not he would give a formal approval to a deal. Trump added, "I will be keeping an eye on it and it's going be fantastic." Requests for comments on the current status of the deal negotiations have not been responded to by the White House or the companies. Trump announced the rally last Friday and appeared to endorse this merger in a post on social media. This pushed the share price of U.S. Steel up by over 20%, as investors bet that he would give the merger the green light soon. He sowed doubt on Sunday by describing to reporters the deal as not the takeover Nippon seeks but an investment, with "partial ownership" and control located in the United States. U.S. Steel's headquarters is located in Pennsylvania. This symbolized the strength of the U.S. manufacturing industry at one time, but also the decline as steel factories and plants along the Rust Belt lost business to foreign competitors. In presidential elections, the state that is most closely contested is often a prize. Takahiro Muri, Nippon's Vice-Chair, said before Trump: "We wouldn't be here without President Trump. He has ensured the future of our company by approving this partnership." Ryosei Acazawa, Japan's chief trade negotiator told reporters Friday that he couldn't comment yet on the deal. "I'm aware of all the reports and posts made by President Trump in social media. There hasn't been any official announcement by the U.S. Government," Akazawa said, who was in Washington to negotiate tariffs. Trump has to make a decision by Thursday, after the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. completed its second review last week. The timeline may slip. The road leading up to the rally on Friday has been bumpy. Nippon Steel made an offer of $14.9 billion to U.S. Steel for December 2023. They wanted to take advantage of the expected increase in steel sales due to the bipartisan Infrastructure Law. The tie-up was doomed from the beginning, as both Biden and Trump insisted that U.S. Steel be owned by Americans to win over Pennsylvania voters ahead of the presidential election in November. Biden, after the review in December 2008, blocked the deal on grounds of national security. The companies filed suit, claiming they had not received a fair review, an accusation that the Biden White House denied. Steel giants saw an opportunity with the Trump administration. The Trump administration opened a 45-day review of the proposed merger. Trump's public remarks, which ranged from welcoming the Japanese company to "invest" in U.S. Steel to suggesting that Nippon Steel should have a minority stake, did not do much to boost investor confidence. Last week, it was reported that Nippon Steel has proposed plans to invest up to $14 billion into U.S. Steel operations. This includes $4 billion for a new mill. If the Trump administration approves its merger bid. Reporting by Jeff Mason and Alexandra Alper, Writing by Trevor Hunnicutt, Additional reporting by Makiko Yazaki in Tokyo, and Nathan Layne, in New York, and Editing by Chizu Nomiyama Alistair Bell, and Chris Reese
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Trump plans to double steel tariffs from 50% to 100%
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, announced on Friday that he would increase the tariffs on steel imports from 25 to 50 percent. This will put more pressure on steel producers around the world and intensify his trade war. "We will be increasing the tariffs by 25%." "We are going to increase the tariffs from 25% to 50% on steel imported into the United States of America. This will further secure the American steel industry," he stated at a Pennsylvania rally. Next week, the new levy will come into effect. Steel tariffs Trump's return to office in January saw him impose levies and tariffs on aluminum. Tariffs of 25% were imposed on steel and aluminum imports to the U.S. in March. He had threatened a 50% tax on Canadian steel, but eventually backed down. The import tax is imposed under the Section 232 authority. This includes both raw metals as well as derivative products such as horseshoes or aluminum fry pans. According to Census Bureau Data retrieved by the U.S. International Trade Commission Data Web System, the total import value of the 289 categories in 2024 was $147.3 billion. Nearly two thirds were aluminum and one third steel. Trump's two first rounds of punitive duties on Chinese industrial products in 2018, during his first term, totaled $50 Billion in annual imports. (Reporting and editing by Chris Reese; Jeff Mason)
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Rosneft, a Russian oil company, says its Q1 net income was $2.2 billion less than a half-year ago.
Rosneft, Russia's biggest oil producer, reported a net profit Friday of 170 billion Russian roubles (2.19 billion dollars). This is less than half the level from a year ago due to higher interest rates, sanctions, and a stronger ruble. Igor Sechin has been a staunch ally of Vladimir Putin and Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin. He has often criticised the Russian central bank's tight monetary policies. Since October, the central bank has maintained its key rate at 21% as it has fought against persistently high inflation. The rate has increased since the early 2000s when Russia was still recovering after the chaos of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Sechin stated in a press release that "during the reporting period the company operated under conditions of a further deterioration in the macroeconomic climate, including a decline in the price for Russian Urals oil, an expansion of discounts to global oil benchmarks, new sanctions as well as the strengthening of the Russian rouble." Rosneft reported that interest costs increased by 1.8 times in the first quarter. Rosneft didn't provide a comparison to the net income of the previous year, but it did report last year that its first-quarter net income for 2024 reached 399 billion Russian roubles. The company reported a net profit increase from 158 billion Russian roubles during the previous three-month period. The company also reported that the revenue for the quarter of January-March decreased by 8.5% compared to the previous one to 2.3 trillion Russian roubles, due to the lower oil prices in roubles. Rosneft reported that the EBITDA (earnings before taxes, depreciation, and amortization) fell by 15.5% compared to the previous quarter, falling to 598 billion Russian roubles.
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Moody's raises Nigeria's rating from 'B3' to 'B3' due to its improved external and fiscal position
Moody's, the credit rating agency, upgraded Nigeria's ratings by a notch from "Caa1", citing significant improvement in the country's fiscal and external positions. The World Bank announced earlier this month that Nigeria's economy had achieved its highest growth rate in about a decade, in 2024. This was due to a strong quarter and a better fiscal position. It warned, however, that high inflation is still a problem. Moody's stated that the recent overhaul of Nigeria's Foreign Exchange Management Framework... had markedly improved the CBN's reserves of foreign currency and bolstered its balance of payments. Moody's says that the inflationary risk in Nigeria has decreased due to policy changes. The nascent signs that inflation and borrowing costs will be easing are boosting confidence in these policy changes. The agency revised Nigeria’s outlook from “positive” to “stable”, as it expects the recent progress in external and fiscal areas to continue at a slower rate if oil prices drop. Moody's stated that "the stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations that external and fiscal improvement will decelerate, but not reverse completely." (Reporting and editing by Mohammed Safi Shamsi in Bengaluru, Nishara K.P.
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Stocks end lower but still post a strong gain for the month despite tariff concerns
The global stock market ended Friday with a loss, but it also recorded a gain for the week and the largest monthly increase since the end of 2023. This was despite the markets being roiled by the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's policies on tariffs. At the beginning of the week, sentiments were initially boosted by signs that trade tensions had eased between the U.S. Investors then focused on the earnings of artificial-intelligence chipmaker Nvidia which posted better-than expected results mid-week. The markets were temporarily shaken by an unexpected ruling of the U.S. Court of International Trade that struck down Trump's so called Liberation Day Tariffs. This triggered a court drama which saw an appeals court temporarily reinstate these tariffs. Trump claimed on Friday that China violated an agreement between the U.S. and China to roll back trade restrictions and tariffs for essential minerals. He also issued a new, veiled threat of getting tougher with Beijing. Mark Malek is chief investment officer of Siebert. "Within four day we got a compressed edition of what we had for an entire month - the tug-of war between forces that drove the markets higher last year, and the year before - namely AI and technology growth stock - and this looming problem we have with these administration tariffs." Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 index and Nasdaq ended lower due to weakness in consumer discretionary, technology and energy stocks. The Dow finished higher after erasing its early losses. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes registered their largest monthly percentage gains since November 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.13% to 42,270.07; the S&P 500 dropped 0.01% to 5911.69 and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.32% at 19,113.77. European shares ended the week with a gain of 0.14%. They also added 4% to their monthly total for May. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan closed higher overnight by 0.74%, ending the week with a lower closing price but adding nearly 5% to the month. This is the largest monthly gain since September 20,24. MSCI's world index fell 0.07%, to 879.63. However, it gained 1.32% in a week and 5.53% for May - its biggest monthly gain since Nov. 2023. Malek continued, "We thought that the markets would be numb by now to all of this tariff talk and that it had been factored into a great deal. But that is not true." The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, closely watched, rose by 0.1% in April. This was in line with expectations. Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell met for the first time on Thursday. A Fed statement stated that Powell did not mention his expectations regarding monetary policy, except to emphasize that the direction of policy would depend on the incoming information about the economy and its implications for the future. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 2.6 basis points, to 4,398%. After reversing previous losses, the 30-year bond yield increased 0.2 basis point to 4.9254%. The dollar rose against other major currencies, including the euro. It is on course to gain a month-long amount against the Japanese yen. The dollar fell 0.15% against the Japanese yen to 143.95, while the euro dropped 0.12% to $1.135050. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) rose by 0.14%, to 99.394. Tariff uncertainty was weighing down the market, and it was heading for a fifth consecutive month of losses. Investors are weighing the possibility of a larger OPEC+ production increase for July. Brent crude futures ended the day down 0.39%, at $63.90 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate finished at $60.79 per barrel, down by 0.25%. The dollar rose as gold prices fell. Spot gold dropped 0.7% to $3.292.78 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures closed 0.9% lower, at $3315.40.
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Northern Manitobans fleeing wildfires head south
Winnipeg, Canada's provincial capital, scrambled Friday to provide housing and care to the thousands of people who fled areas devastated by wildfires. Fires have erupted across large areas of the western part of Canada's North due to unusually dry and hot conditions. The flames are devouring hundreds of thousands hectares (hectares) of bushland and forest that is as dry as tinder. "It's hard on everybody," said school maintenance technician Richard Korte, who had fled to Winnipeg from Flin Flon, a regional centre of 5,000 people on the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border, and wondered where his family would sleep that night. Both the neighbouring provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan in western Canada have declared states of emergencies to combat the fires that have spread across remote and sparsely populated areas. Chris Schultz, an evacuee, sat in the cab with his dog Stella and hoped to see friends and family arriving at a Winnipeg temporary emergency shelter in a hockey hall. Korte, his friend, had spent hours in the center trying to find housing for his entire family, which included his son with special needs, who cannot remain in an arena. As fires approach, people from Indigenous communities in the north are fleeing and their few routes south are blocked. Several communities have evacuated the most vulnerable members of their community by air, but at least one airport has been closed due to smoke. Manitoba Premier Wab Knew stated that about 17,000 Manitobans have fled the fires due to the hot, dry weather. Kinew said in a Friday afternoon press conference, "We must stay calm." He thanked the U.S. and Quebec for sending 125 firefighters to Manitoba. We cannot thank other jurisdictions for their support enough. George Fontaine, the mayor of Flin Flon, said that the weather forecast indicated that the fire would likely blow into the town. Fontaine told CBC News Network that such a scenario could be "very catastrophic". According to data from the provinces, there are currently 23 active fires burning in Manitoba and fourteen in Saskatchewan. Alberta, which is a province that produces oil, also has 51 fires active. Oil companies are evacuating their workers. Wildfires destroyed Jasper, an important tourist destination in the Canadian Rockies, last year. Schultz warned that he could cry in his truck. He hoped that Stella, his dog, would bring a smile to the faces of his fellow evacuatees.
ASIA GOLD - Indian gold demand is lagging as prices increase, and wedding purchases are cooling
The physical gold demand in India this week was tepid, due to an increase in prices at home and the end of wedding season, which kept buyers away. Premiums in China, India's top consumer, were also down.
This week, Indian dealers offered a discount
The wedding season has ended and the monsoon is here, so jewellers expect a seasonal drop in demand. This is why people are holding off on new purchases," said Mumbai-based bullion dealers with a private banking institution.
On Friday, domestic gold prices traded at around 94.900 rupees for 10 grams after reaching a low of 90.890 rupees in the first month of this month.
In China, bullion traded at a premium of $15 per ounce above the global benchmark spot rate, compared to premiums between $16 and $30 last week.
Ross Norman, a independent analyst, said that the Shanghai Gold Exchange has seen its drawdowns reach the lowest levels of the year, while imports were exceptionally high in the past few weeks, suggesting that the Chinese domestic market is overstocked.
Data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department showed that China's total imports of gold via Hong Kong almost tripled in April compared to March, reaching their highest level for more than a month.
Hugo Pascal is a precious metals dealer at InProved. He said that despite the lower volume of trading, gold bullish bets are still dominant on the SHFE.
In Hong Kong, gold
In Japan, bullion
(source: Reuters)