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Italy confident US-EU Trade Agreement will Echo the US-UK Deal
Giancarlo Giorgetti, the Economy Minister of Italy, said that he is confident that the United States would agree to a similar trade agreement with the European Union as Washington had already done with Britain. If negotiations fail during the 90-day pause, additional "reciprocal tariffs" -- totaling a combined 20 percent in the EU case -- are planned. In early April, U.S. president Donald Trump and British prime minister Keir starmer announced a limited trade agreement. The agreement leaves the 10% tariffs Trump imposed on British exports in place, but expands access to agriculture for both countries, and lowers U.S. import duties that were prohibitive on British auto exports. Giorgetti said at a conference held in Trento, north Italy: "It is very unlikely that the final agreement between the EU and US will differ significantly from the agreement reached with the UK." He spoke by video link in Canada, where the ministers of the Group of Seven Advanced Economies (G7) were meeting. The U.S. Administration is close to or has reached agreements with the United Kingdom and China. "I am not saying the European Union is last, but I do believe that reasonable results can be achieved here too," he said. (Reporting and editing by Crispian B. Balmer; Reporting by Giuseppe Fonte)
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Cholera increases in Khartoum following drone attacks that cut off power and water
Authorities said that more than 2,300 people were diagnosed with cholera over the last three weeks in Sudan, 90% in the capital area and the surrounding areas, where drone attacks had cut off power and water. The emergency operations centre of the Ministry of Health said that at least 51 people had died. Cases were concentrated in Greater Khartoum’s Karari and Jabal-Awlia localities. The war that has lasted for more than two years between the Sudanese Army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which this week took control of Khartoum State, has caused widespread hunger and disease as well as the destruction of most health facilities. Drone attacks have caused power outages and water shortages, allowing cholera, dengue, malaria, and other diseases to spread. In a report released on Thursday, the United Nations stated that "public services, already under immense strain, struggled with the challenges compounded by the prolonged power outage." The Sudanese Army has accused the RSF of most attacks on its facilities. The RSF did not respond to requests for comments on the allegations. The army is trying to push back the RSF in the Kordofan, Darfur and West of the country. In April 2023, the army and RSF fought after disagreements over the integration of both forces during the transition to democracy. (Reporting and editing by Khalid Abdelaziz, Nafisa eltahir)
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Gold drops over 1% due to dollar increase and profit-taking
Gold prices fell by more than 1% Thursday, as the U.S. Dollar strengthened and investors took profits after the price had reached a two-week peak earlier in the day. By 1043 am, spot gold had fallen 0.4%, to $3,301.37 per ounce. ET (1443 GMT). Prices reached their highest level since the 9th of May earlier in the session, and have recorded gains in all three previous sessions. U.S. Gold Futures also dropped 0.4% to $3.301.00. Dollar index rises 0.3%, increasing the price of bullion for holders of foreign currencies. Jim Wycoff is a senior analyst at Kitco Metals. He says that recent gains are putting some pressure on profits. A stronger U.S. Dollar index is also a bearish factor. The specter of an unstable global bond market will be a bullish factor that limits the downside for the gold price. Bond vigilantes continue to monitor global debt markets after the U.S. House of Representatives approved President Donald Trump's 'big beautiful' tax bill with a single-vote. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the bill will add approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade to the $36.2 trillion federal debt. Gold is used to store value in times of political or financial uncertainty. The data showed that U.S. businesses increased their activity in May, despite a truce between Washington and China in the trade dispute. However, Trump's tariffs on imported products raised prices for both companies and consumers. Zain Vawda is an analyst at MarketPulse, and he said that the U.S. government will announce trade deals in the next few weeks. These will have a major impact on the gold price for the rest of the year. Other metals, such as spot silver, fell by 1.1%, to $32.99 per ounce. Platinum was down 0.1%, to $1077.92, and palladium dropped 2.7%, to $1009.89.
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What is in the Republican tax plan and spending plan
The Republican-led House of Representatives passed a comprehensive budget package which would meet many of the priorities of President Donald Trump. Next, the Republican-led Senate will take up the package with likely significant changes. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has summarized the main elements of this package. According to them, the deficit would increase by $3.8 trillion over a period of 10 years. The estimates of CBO and Joint Committee on Taxation for some elements below are likely to be revised in the coming weeks. Tax Breaks and Tax Cuts (Cost: $2.2 trillion) Makes permanent lower income tax rates that were set to expire in Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. (Cost: $2.2 trillion) Increases the alternative minimum tax exemption. (Cost: $1.4 trillion) (Cost: $1.3 trillion) Increases the standard deduction by $1,000 up to $1,500. (Cost: $1.3 trillion) Increases the tax breaks for "pass-through businesses" such as LLCs and sole proprietorships. (Cost: $809 billion) Increases the Child Tax Credit from $1,000 to $2,500 until 2029 and then keeps it at $2,000, indexes to inflation. (Cost: $797 billion) Raising the exemption for estate taxes from $14 to $15 million. (Cost: $212 billion) Extends tax benefits for multinational corporations. (Cost: $174 billion) Tax exemptions on overtime pay through 2029. (Cost: $124 billion) Creates new $4,000 deductions for seniors. (Cost: $72 billion) Tax exemptions on interest payments for loans to domestic autos up until 2029. (Cost: $58 billion) Tax exemptions on certain tipped income until the year 2029. (Cost: $40 billion) Contributions to private school scholarship funds are exempt up to $5,000. (Cost: $20.4 billion) Parents can contribute up to $5k tax-free per year to a "Trump Account" that will be used to pay for their child's education and other expenses when they become adults. (Cost: $17.2 billion) Taxpayers can now deduct up $40,000 in state and local taxes (SALT), up from the current $10,000. Benefits will gradually be phased out for households earning more than $500,000. (Cost not known at this time) SAVINGS AND NEW REVENUES Extended 2017 deadline for the elimination of personal exemption deduction. (Savings: $1.9 trillion) Tax breaks for green energy, electric vehicles and clean electricity are eliminated. Savings are unknown at this time. Restriction of health benefits for certain immigrants. (Savings: $117 billion) Increases eligibility requirements for Affordable Care Act Exchange coverage. (Savings: $82 billion) Taxes on private university endowments are raised from 1.4% up to 21%. (New revenue: $22.6 billion) Imposes a new tax of 5% on money sent home by immigrants. (New revenue of $22,2 billion) Removes firearm silencers from the national registry and eliminates taxes on their sales. (Cost: $1.4 billion) Tax on firearms manufacturers is eliminated Gives the government the power to end the tax-exempt status of "terrorist-supporting organizations." Total cost of tax reductions: $5.6 TRILLION MEDICAID Adults who are able-bodied and do not have dependents must work, volunteer, or attend school for at least 80 hours per month beginning in 2027. The verification process is strengthened to ensure that participants and healthcare providers can participate. Rules that facilitate enrollment are removed. The program excludes non-citizens and penalizes the states who use their own money to cover illegal immigrants. The regulations that require minimum staffing in nursing homes and long-term care facilities have been blocked. Funding for gender-transition therapies for minors is prohibited. Prohibit payments to large providers such as Planned Parenthood who specialize in birth control and reproductive health services. Limit state taxes on providers used to raise federal contribution. Total savings: $715 Billion. Enrollment will drop at least 7.7 millions people from the current level of 71,000,000 people. ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT COMMUNICATIONS Cancels funding of green-energy grant programmes in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. This includes vehicle manufacturing, home energy upgrades, electricity transmission and wind power. Encourages pipelines, exports of natural gas and exploration. Rejecting grant programs for electric heavy-duty vehicle purchases Rejecting grants for reducing air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Rejecting fuel efficiency standards for cars and pickup trucks More electromagnetic spectrum bands available for communication. The law prohibits the states from regulating artificial Intelligence. Total savings: $197 Billion HOMELAND SECURITY Cost of border wall construction: $46.5 billion Cost: $6.3 billion for surveillance towers, drones, and border-security equipment Cost: $6.2 billion. Increase the number of staff at U.S. Customs and Border Protection (Cost: 46,400 employees to 55,000). Cost: $300 Million) Reimburse the states for border security costs. ($12 billion) Total cost: $79 Billion IMMIGRATION & JUSTICE Imposes new fees up to $5,000 on immigrants' work permits and court hearings. The funding will be used to hire 10,000 additional immigration enforcement officers and fund 1 million deportations. Additional funds are provided to government agencies for the investigation of visa fraud, criminal background checks, DNA testing and supervision of unaccompanied children. The federal courts are prohibited from issuing contempt citations against the government for injunctions and temporary restraining order. Total savings of $110 billion MILITARY Spending on shipbuilding to increase (Cost: 32 billion dollars) Air and missile defence (Cost: 24 billion dollars) Munitions (Cost : $19.5 billion). Nuclear weapons (Cost : $12.6 billion). Cost: $5 billion Total cost: $144 Billion FOOD ASSISTANCE Some of the 41 millions participants in the SNAP program will have to work more hours In 2028, the federal government will begin to shift some costs to the states. Savings of $230 billion EDUCATION Changes to student loan repayment plans: Savings of $295 billion Limits on borrowing for certain student loan programs Restrictions on eligibility for Pell Grants Limits on the government's cancellation of student debt (Savings : $32 billion). Total savings: $349 Billion (Reporting and editing by Andy Sullivan, Bill Berkrot Alistair Bell, Andrea Ricci, Scott Malone)
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US to support Republican state's argument in BlackRock Climate Case
Two sources familiar with this matter said that U.S. antitrust enforcers would likely support Republican state arguments on Thursday accusing asset managers BlackRock Vanguard State Street of conspiring to reduce coal production through climate activism. The U.S. Department of Justice, and the Federal Trade Commission are expected to file an interest statement in the case in which Texas and 12 other States claim that the companies used their significant holdings in U.S. Coal companies to discourage the competition. This is a major political setback for asset managers. BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street, which together have $27 trillion, are under fire by conservative Republicans from states that produce energy. They claim the firms put social and environmental concerns ahead of maximising returns for customers. The asset managers' spokespeople did not respond immediately to comments. BlackRock is, for example, facing restrictions or outright bans from managing public assets in Texas and Indiana due to its ESG policies. In February, there were signs of thawing when BlackRock led a consortium that bought ports near the strategically important Panama Canal waterway. The deal was hailed as a success by U.S. president Donald Trump. Asset managers call the case "half baked" and claim there is no proof that they demanded a reduction in output. U.S. district judge Jeremy Kernodle, in Tyler, Texas is set to hear arguments in June on the asset manager's bid to dismiss the lawsuit. Reporting by J. Godoy, Ross Kerber and Chris Sanders; Editing and Matthew Lewis by Chris Sanders)
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Bloomberg News reports on G7 draft pledges to tackle 'excessive balances' in the global economy
Bloomberg News, citing an unsigned draft of a communique, reported that finance ministers and central banks governors of the Group of Seven nations have pledged to tackle "excessive" imbalances in the global economic system. Bloomberg News reported that the finance leaders stressed the need for a shared understanding of "non-market practices and policies" which undermine international economic stability. According to the report, "the draft communique calls on an analysis of market concentration and international supply chains resilience." The report stated that the leaders agreed on the importance of "level playing fields and taking a broad coordinated approach to deal with the harm caused by people who don't follow the same rules or lack transparency." The draft report did not mention China, but it acknowledged an increase in international low-value packages, or "de minimis", typically coming from Chinese retailers like Temu and Shein. Report: The G7 nations may consider increasing sanctions against Russia if there is no ceasefire in Ukraine. Could not confirm immediately the report. The G7 finance leaders -- from the U.S.A., UK. Canada, France. Germany, Italy, and Japan -- met in Banff. The remarks may have been part of the final communiqué being prepared by officials from G7 countries to summarize three-days of meetings. (Reporting by Anusha Shah in Bengaluru Editing by Rod Nickel)
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Gazprom, the Russian energy giant, has scrapped its dividend due to high interest rates
Gazprom, the state-owned Russian energy giant, announced on Thursday that it had decided not to pay a dividend for 2024's results. This was in accordance with the position of the government and despite last year's return to profitability. The government is not helped by the absence of dividends, since it owns just under half of the share capital. It faces a number challenges, including falling oil and gas revenue, rising inflation, increased military spending, and a budget gap. Gazprom shares fell 4.42% to 130.5 roubles at the Moscow Stock Exchange as of 1335 GMT after the announcement. According to the company's own dividend policy, approved in 2019, 50% of adjusted net profits should be allocated for dividend payout. Gazprom reported last month a net income for 2024 after a loss in 2023 of nearly $7 billion, its first loss since 1999 due to the collapse of gas exports into Europe. Some market watchers have not ruled out a dividend payment. Gazprom, according to a source in the industry, is trying to reduce high debt service costs despite steep interest rates. Since last October, the central bank's main rate is at an all-time high of 21%. Gazprom’s financial report, prepared according to Russian accounting standards reveals that its interest rate on debt will double in 2024 from 238.6 to 482.5 billion Russian roubles. Analysts at PSB said that "high rates will result in Gazprom paying more interest this year. The company will likely focus on reducing its debt load rather than pay dividends." Gazprom only paid an interim dividend once since the beginning of the so-called special military operation by Moscow in Ukraine, in February 2022. This was in the autumn of the same year, due to the high gas prices that were in Europe. Gazprom did not pay any dividends on its results for 2021, the first time they have done so since 1998. This is due to high taxes and spending. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens/Andrew Osborn, Oksana Kobieva).
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Solar stocks plunge after Trump's tax plan advances in US House
The shares of U.S. Solar companies dropped sharply after the House of Representatives passed President Donald Trump's tax and spending bill. This could end many green-energy subsides that supported the renewable energy industry. Sunrun shares fell nearly 41% early in the morning, followed by SolarEdge Technologies, Enphase Energy, and Complete Solaria. Maxeon Solar shares fell by 9%. Emeren Group shares dropped by 5.2%. JinkoSolar shares declined 4.7%. First Solar and Canadian Solar both saw their share prices drop 5.4% and 6.4%. Trump's budget plan, which he calls "one beautiful bill", would eliminate funding under the Biden Administration Inflation Reduction Act as well as grants to reduce air pollution or greenhouse gas emissions. The bill would eliminate the 30% federal credit for taxpayers installing solar rooftop systems. This would be a major challenge to the industry. Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov said that the new bill speeds up the process of phasing out wind and solar tax incentives. According to the proposed new timeline, solar and wind projects will have to begin construction within 60 calendar days after the bill is enacted. They must also finish construction before the end of 2028. If they do not, then the tax credit will be revoked. The clean energy industry now turns its attention to the Senate where the bill will be sent next before being sent to the President, in hopes that it will reverse some of the proposed changes to the IRA. Molchanov said that the solar and wind industries would lobby hard to have the changes reversed while the bill was in the Senate. Reporting by Vallari Shrivastava, Bengaluru. Editing by Tasim Zaid
Copper hits three-week low amid economic uncertainty
The price of copper fell to a record low for a third week on Thursday, and the prices of other base metals were also lower as economic uncertainty and a slowing demand growth persist.
The benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange was down 0.7% to $9,462 per metric tonne by 0938 GMT, after reaching its lowest level since May 1, at $9,223.20.
Alastair M. Munro, broker at Marex, said that the metals market was in a state of paralysis following the expiration of LME benchmark contract last week.
The sharp increase in Chinese inventories has put pressure on prices
The prospect of increased supply was also a factor in the market's reaction after Freeport Indonesia reopened its Manyar smelter, located in East Java, ahead of schedule following a fire that occurred last year. The smelter is expected to start producing copper cathode in the fourth week of this month.
Investor sentiment remained subdued despite a deteriorating U.S. financial outlook. The Moody's downgrade last week fueled a growing narrative of "Sell America", leaving the markets in a state of confusion.
A weaker dollar helped to limit losses by making metals priced in dollars cheaper for buyers of other currencies.
LME lead dropped 1.1% to $1.952 per ton, after reaching its lowest level since May 9, at $1.947.50.
Lead inventories on warrant
Other metals saw a 0.2% decline in aluminium at $2467 per ton. Zinc fell by 0.2% to 2,688. Nickel was down 0.9% to $15,450. Tin lost 1.4% to 32,365. (Reporting and editing by David Goodman in Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)