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Trade war worries persist despite oil rising on the back of China's rebounding imports
The oil prices rose on Monday, after Chinese data revealed a sharp rise in crude imports for March. However, concerns about the impact of the trade war between China and the United States on global economic growth weighed. Brent crude futures rose 6 cents or 0.09% to $64.82 per barrel at 0632 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures were trading at $60.59 a barrel. This is up 9 cents or 0.15%. Data released on Monday showed that China's crude imports rose sharply in March compared to the previous two month and nearly 5% compared to a year ago. The increase was attributed to a rise in Iranian oil as well as a rebound in Russian deliveries. Brent and WTI are down about $10 per barrel since the beginning of the month. Analysts have also revised their oil prices forecasts downwards, as the trade conflict between the two world's largest economies intensified. Goldman Sachs predicts Brent will average $63 per barrel and WTI $59 per barrel for the rest of 2025. Brent is expected to average $58 in 2026 and WTI $55. Analysts led by Daan Stuyven wrote in a report that they expect global oil demand to rise by only 300,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter 2025, given the weak growth outlook. They also noted that this slowdown will be most pronounced for feedstocks used in petrochemicals. BMI, an arm of Fitch Solutions cut its Brent price prediction to $68 a barrel from $76 for 2025, as they expect the slowing economy to reduce demand. BMI reported that the Brent price differential between December 2025-2026 also entered contango, as investors priced-in concerns about oversupply and lack of demand. A contango market is one where the front-month price is lower than that of future months. This indicates no shortage in supply. Beijing raised its tariffs against U.S. goods to 125%, retaliating to President Donald Trump’s decision to increase duties on Chinese products. The trade war is now more serious and could disrupt global supply chains. Trump granted exemptions from steep tariffs for smartphones, computers, and other electronics, largely imported from China. But on Sunday, he announced that he would announce the tariff rate on semiconductors imported over the next few weeks. The trade war has increased concerns that unsold exports may continue to drive down prices in China. "China's inflation data were a window to an economy not ready for a trade war." In terms of year-on-year comparisons, consumer prices dropped for the second consecutive month, while producer price fell by 30%. This was revealed in a Moody's Analytics weekly note referring to April 10 data. Baker Hughes reports that as companies prepare for possible demand declines, U.S. oil firms cut the number of oil rigs last week by the largest amount in a single week since June 2023. This is the third consecutive week the oil and gas rig count has been reduced. Chris Wright, the U.S. Energy Secretary, said that Trump's plan for pressure on Iran over its nuclear program could potentially support oil prices. Officials said that both countries had "positive" and constructive" talks on Saturday in Oman and agreed to meet again next week to discuss Tehran's rapidly expanding nuclear program. In a recent note, ING analysts led Warren Paterson stated that "this may help reduce some of the sanctions risk affecting oil markets if the talks continue to move in the right directions." (Reporting from Katya Golubkova and Florence Tan in Tokyo; editing by Sonali Paul.)
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Wood Group in the UK receives conditional bid by Sidara for $450 million cash
Wood Group announced on Monday that Dubai's Sidara had made a conditional offer for the British oilfield engineering and services firm. The proposal included 35 pence per share and an injection of up to $450 million in cash. Wood Group resumed discussions with Sidara in February, after the company had repeatedly rejected its approaches. Sidara had withdrawn their acquisition plans due to increased geopolitical risk and uncertainty on financial markets last year. Sidara’s latest offer values Wood Group at approximately 242 million pounds. This comes just before the deadline of April 17, when the Dubai-based engineering firm and consulting company was required to submit a formal bid. If such an offer were made, the British company would "be inclined to recommend" it to its shareholders. Wood Group projected that in February, after a turbulent period -- marked by problems within its Projects division, activist investors' pressure to pursue a sell, failed takeover efforts, and a strategic review -- it would experience another year of negative operating cash flow. Wood Group announced on Monday it is seeking to extend its debt facility and Sidara has made "significant progress" in its due diligence.
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London Copper pares gains due to concerns about US semiconductor tariffs
London copper prices lost their gains on Monday, weighed down with concerns about President Donald Trump's threats of tariffs against semiconductors. Meanwhile, hopes for Chinese stimulus helped to limit losses. As of 0404 GMT the benchmark three-month price for copper on the London Metal Exchange was up by 0.1% to $9,160 per metric tonne, after reaching its highest level in over a week. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) most traded copper contract rose by 1.5%, to $75,920 yuan per ton ($10,389.61). The dollar index dropped 0.4% against its competitors. The dollar is weaker, making commodities priced in greenbacks cheaper for buyers of other currencies. Trump announced on Sunday that he will announce tariffs for imported semiconductors in the coming week. He also said there would be some flexibility with certain companies. Trump's desire to reset the trade in semiconductors will probably result in a short-term exclusion of computers and smartphones from the reciprocal tariffs he imposes on China. BMI, an arm of Fitch Solutions, said that tariff threats are still a major concern for copper. Beijing's response, which could be a massive stimulus package, is likely to offset the losses. Last week, Chinese Premier State media reported that Li Qiang stated China needed to implement proactive macroeconomic policy and quickly roll them out, as "external pressures" had pressed on China's stabilisation. Investors await additional stimulus measures by China to reduce the impact of Trump’s tariffs. SHFE aluminium increased by 0.4% at 19,695 Yuan per ton. Zinc rose 0.5% at 22,465 Yuan. Lead gained 0.7%, reaching 16,885 Yuan. Nickel was up 1.5%, at 122760 Yuan. Tin advanced 2.5%, to 260480 Yuan. LME aluminium rose by 0.5%, to $2408.5 per ton. Lead rose by 0.2%, to $1918, while tin rose 2.1%, to $31,870. Zinc rose 0.4%, to $2661, and nickel increased 0.6%, to $15,155. $1 = 7.3073 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich and Sumana Nandy in Bengaluru)
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Iron ore prices rise as investors balance upbeat China data with tariff worries
Iron ore futures traded in a narrow range Monday as investors weighed positive data from China, the world's largest consumer of iron ore against concerns about demand caused by an intensifying trade war between Washington and Beijing. The September contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the morning trading flat at 704 Yuan ($96.34). As of 0433 GMT, the benchmark May ore price on Singapore Exchange remained at $97.15 per ton. Analysts expected that the Chinese government would increase its stimulus program to protect it from the tariffs imposed on the country by U.S. president Donald Trump. However, better than expected loan data tempered those expectations. In March, new bank loans in China recovered more than expected, after a sharp decline the month before. Policymakers have pledged to increase stimulus in order to support the second largest economy in the world against an escalating US-China trade war. The better the data is, the less urgent it will be to reveal more stimulus measures, said a Chinese economist, referring specifically to loan data. He requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak with media. Also, China's imports of iron ore fell in March compared to the previous month, reaching a 20-month-low, contrary to analysts' expectations that a recovery would occur as supply disruptions due weather eased. Coking coal and coke were both unchanged on the DCE. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange moved within a narrow range as well. Rebar remained flat at 0.03%. Hot-rolled coils advanced by 0.31%. Stainless steel rose 0.7%. Wire rod fell 0.06%.
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China March rare Earth exports increase as Myanmar supply disruption makes buyers nervous
China's rare earth exports increased by 20.31% from March of last year as consumers from overseas booked more cargos in fear that prices would rise due to disruptions in supply from ongoing conflict in Myanmar, a major supplier. According to the General Administration of Customs, China exported 5,666.3 tons of minerals in the 17-mineral group last month. This compares to 4,710 tonnes in the same period in 2024 and 3,217 in February. Rare earths can be found in many products, including lasers, wind turbines, electric cars, and consumer electronics. China is the largest producer in the world. The data from the Customs showed that in the first quarter 2025, exports of rare earths increased by 5.1% compared to a year ago, reaching 14,177.6 tonnes. Exports are expected to drop in April as Beijing has halted the shipments of rare earths that were placed on a list of export controls last week. This could lead to shortages abroad as Chinese exporters wait to receive government licenses. Beijing announced that it would immediately restrict the export of seven categories medium and heavy rare Earths, including samarium and related items such as gadolinium and dysprosium. Neha Mukherjee is a senior analyst with Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. She said that China's new export controls were added to the already volatile supply of heavy rare earths (HREEs) due to disruptions caused in Myanmar. This puts more than 75% global medium and heavy REEs mined at risk, and causes short-term volatility. Mukherjee said that while stocks may be sufficient to cover the near-term need, they are only enough until the first half 2025. Concerns about export delays could also drive up prices. Already, China's spot prices of praseodymium-neodymium oxide Data from Shanghai Metals Market revealed that the average price per ton was 443,071 Yuan last month. This is 1.4% higher and 25.9% more than in February and March of 2024. Due to the issues in Myanmar, China's imports of rare earths fell by 42.16% in March compared to the same period last year. This is despite the fact that shipments of the existing inventory of rare earths to China resumed on March 27. Customs data revealed that the total imports for the first quarter was tons. This represents a 30.9% decline on an annual basis.
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China's crude imports are at their highest level since August 2023 due to Iranian surge
Data released on Monday showed that China's crude imports rose sharply in March compared to the previous two month and nearly 5% compared to a year ago. The increase was attributed to a rise in Iranian oil as well as a rebound in Russian deliveries. According to records of customs, March imports totaled 51.41 millions metric tons. This is equivalent to 12.1 million barrels a day. It was the highest level since August 2023. This is an increase from 11,55 million bpd, in March 2024, and 10,38 million bpd during the period of January-February. In March, independent refiners & traders increased their purchases of Iranian crude oil in anticipation of future U.S. supply restrictions. Emma Li, an Analyst at Vortexa's tanker analytics company, reported that the tracking of her firm's tankers showed China's seaborne oil imports had rebounded from a low to a high level, 10.6 million barrels per day, which is the highest since 2023. This was largely due to the record Iranian crude arrivals in the Shandong area. The overall Russian oil delivery rebounded, despite the toughest sanctions ever imposed by Washington on Moscow's oil imports, announced in January. Non-sanctioned oil tankers took advantage of the surging freight rate to join the transport. In order to compensate for the reduction in purchases of Russian oil by state refiners since March, they have increased their purchases of alternative supplies, mainly from the Middle East and West Africa. The data revealed that crude oil imports for the entire first quarter were 135,25 million tons or 10,97 million bpd. This was 1.5% less than a year earlier. Exports of refined petroleum products (diesel, gasoline, aviation and marine fuel) were also down to 5.24 million tonnes in March, from 6.02 millions tons in March 2024. Exports for the first quarter totaled 12.46 million metric tonnes, a 16% decline on the previous year. China's new export quotas were smaller than a year earlier, but their release was a little bit earlier than usual. This weighed heavily on Asian refinery margins. Imports of natural gas, including liquefied gas and piped gas, fell by 15% in the last month compared to a year ago, at 9.16 millions tons. The first-quarter imports were also down 10% from the same period in 2024, at 29.42million tons. China's LNG spot demand remains subdued, due to high import costs and abundant domestic supplies. Due to Beijing's punitive duties, companies have refrained from shipping U.S. LNG in the midst of a U.S.-China tit-fortat trade war.
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The morning bid in Europe- a two-step tariff
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The "reciprocal tariffs" are now off some smartphones and electronics. But maybe for only a short time, as the White House could decide to impose their own tariff after completing a study on the global supply chain. Or something. Trump told reporters on Sunday that tariffs on semiconductors will be announced in the coming week, and a final decision on smartphones would be made "soon". It's essentially more of the chaos. It is difficult to imagine how anyone managing a business can make long-term investment decisions in these conditions. This has limited the Wall Street futures' boost for now. The S&P 500 rose around 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1,2%. However, you'd have to assume that Apple shares will benefit at least in the short term. European stock futures actually have performed better. This could be due to speculation that Trump will also budge on other taxes. Investors may be buying Europe because they are worried about the threat to U.S. exceptionalism and "exorbitant privilige" - the dollar as the world reserve currency. The dollar has been feeling the heat, dropping below 143.00 yen again and continuing last week's 5% decline against the Swiss Franc. The euro is now knocking at $1.1400 and even high-beta Aussies and Kiwis are up. This is a clear sign that the dollar is losing its safe-haven status. Some Japanese officials have reportedly been preparing for trade talks with the United States, which will probably touch on currency policies. They are preparing for Washington to ask Tokyo to support the yen. If the White House starts to talk down the dollar, it will scare off those investors who have unhedged U.S. assets. This is the majority of them. The longer-term Treasuries yields are still up by 50 basis points, but they have not reversed the shocking jump. This would be a significant tightening of financial conditions, and a drag on the housing market if it were to continue. The Fed has another reason to ease, even if inflation continues to rise. The New York Fed's survey of inflation expectations, due on Monday, will be very interesting to see whether it shows the same spike as the University of Michigan data. The retail sales data due on Wednesday for March could be very strong, as consumers rush to purchase autos and other products before tariffs take effect. The Fed Chair Powell will also have the opportunity to share his views on Wednesday, at the Economic Club of Chicago. This Q&A is expected to be lively. The markets indicate a 20% probability of a rate cut in May, which rises to almost 80% by June. The markets have priced in 80 basis points for the entire year. However, this was up by around 130 basis point last week. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact NY Fed inflation expectations Survey Waller, Barkin Harker, and Bostic are among the Fed speakers
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China's crude imports are at their highest level since August 2023 due to Iranian surge
Data released on Monday showed that China's crude imports rose sharply in March compared to the previous two month and nearly 5% compared to a year ago. This was due to an increase in Iranian oil as well as a rise in Russian oil deliveries. According to records of customs, March imports totaled 51.41 millions metric tons. This is equivalent to 12.1 million barrels per a day. It was the highest level since August 2023. This is an increase from 11,55 million bpd, in March 2024, and 10,38 million bpd during the period of January-February. In March, independent refiners stocked up on Iranian crude oil in anticipation of future U.S. supply restrictions. Emma Li, a tanker analyst at Vortexa said that her company's tanker tracker showed China's seaborne oil imports had rebounded to 10,6 million bpd. This was the highest level since October 2023. The increase is largely due to record Iranian crude arrivals in the Shandong area. The overall Russian oil delivery rebounded, despite the toughest sanctions ever imposed by Washington on Moscow's oil imports, announced in January. Non-sanctioned oil tankers took advantage of the surging freight rate to join the transport. In order to compensate for the reduction in purchases of Russian oil by state refiners since March, they have increased their purchases of alternative supplies, mainly from the Middle East and West Africa. The data revealed that crude oil imports for the entire first quarter were 135,25 million tons or 10,97 million bpd. This was 1.5% less than a year earlier.
Antofagasta, Chile, expects the copper demand to remain steady despite tariff tension
The trade war sparked by U.S. Tariffs poses a threat to metal demand, according to the Chilean Antofagasta's head. However, he said that AI and other technologies could compensate for any decline in traditional consumption due economic weakness.
He said that President Donald Trump’s policies may create a more favorable environment for mining investment.
Trump's announcement last week of tariffs, followed by China's retaliation, caused chaos on the financial markets, and sent copper prices plummeting.
Ivan Arriagada, CEO of Antofagasta, said during an interview at the CESCO Copper Conference in Santiago, that he expects supplies of copper to remain limited. Copper is needed for construction as well as the transition towards a low-carbon economy.
He was therefore more concerned with the effect of the trade conflict on the economy as a whole, which could reduce the demand for copper, rather than the market's resilience.
Arriagada predicted that data centers, renewable energies and AI would compensate for a slowdown in global economic demand.
Trump has not yet announced special measures for Copper, but his Administration is looking at potential tariffs.
Arriagada stated that Chile, as the world's largest copper producer, is in a great position to avoid U.S. Tariffs, since the United States enjoys a surplus of trade with Chile, a partner who provides more than 50% of U.S. Copper Imports.
Antofagasta, a London-listed company, operates four mines of copper in Chile. It is also developing a mine for the United States. The company aims to produce 660,000-700,000 metric tonnes this year after producing 664,000 last year.
The Twin Metals copper-nickel mine project, located in Minnesota, must first resolve a legal dispute over permits and then receive the necessary approvals.
"In the present environment, there is a great deal more support for mining investments, it should be easy and should happen," Arriagada stated, though he added that there were no signs of progress yet.
Arriagada, without providing details, said that Antofagasta only sent a small amount of additional copper to the United States as U.S. customers rushed to stockpile before Trump's announcement. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis, Daina Beth Solon and Fabian Cambero)
(source: Reuters)