INSTANT VIEW: Trump's hefty tariffs shock markets and cause S&P futures to fall

U.S. president Donald Trump escalated the trade war by announcing on Wednesday that he would impose reciprocal duties to match duties placed on U.S. products by other countries.

Trump told an audience in the White House Rose Garden that "it's our declaration" of independence. "We will set a minimum base tariff of 10%."

The rates for China will be 34% while those for the European Union, Japan and Canada would be 20% and 24% respectively.

S&P futures fell 3%, indicating that investors are expecting deep losses on Wall Street when it opens Thursday. S&P 500 Futures fell 3%. This suggests investors will suffer heavy losses on Wall Street when it opens Thursday. Nasdaq Futures, which reflect tech companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft, fell almost 4%. S&P 500 futures tumbled 3%, suggesting investors expect deep losses when Wall Street opens on Thursday.

COMMENTS:

SARAH KETTERER CEO, CAUSEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LOS ANGELES: "This is a salvo. This isn't a final list. It's only another round in what will be countless rounds of negotiation."

"Market weakness should allow you to invest in global equity markets. European spending is going to be huge and pivotal. It will also be very stimulating, especially if combined with increased bank lending. It's certainly not "Happy Days", but global equity markets, and especially European stocks that have trailed U.S. stock prices for 17 years, will be able to perform better. We believe that some of the gap will be closed."

BYRON ANDERSON HEAD OF FIXED RESULTS, LAFFER-TENGLER INVESTMENTS SCOTTSDALE ARIZONA

"We're back at the inflection points for Treasury yields. We're basically at the average of the previous two years. The bond market initially reacted as we had expected, namely by selling off. Did we receive reciprocal tariffs? The market is also not sure. "If we can get some moderation in today's market, it will be crucial to the bond scenario. It will also help calm down the markets." "Reciprocal Tariffs will eventually be deflationary, as our trading partners will begin to eliminate tariffs." If we do get some moderation, the market is not in a good position. We should also see the unwinding of the flight of safety. This means that treasury rates are rising and high yield credit spreads will be softer. Expect volatility as certain countries continue to defend their status quo."

NANCY TENGLER is CEO and CIO of LAFFER TENGLER Investments, SCOTTSDALE (ARIZONA). "The Administration prided itself in being the administration for the common man. The common man is employed by the automotive industry. If the auto tariffs are imposed, the demand for automobiles will decrease. You can stop there. As purchasing managers tried to stay ahead of tariffs, we have seen a pull-forward in economic numbers. Imports are up, which puts downward pressure on the GDP. The decline in manufacturing PMIs is most puzzling, as they printed contractionary readings last months due to the drop in new orders and employment. Carvana surged in after-hour trading on Trump tariffs. Tesla (mostly made in the U.S.A.) is also trading up. Ford and GM are both flat. Carvana will profit from the increased demand for used vehicles."

ADAM HETTS GLOBAL HEAD, MULTI ASSET, JANUS HENDERSON INVESTOR, DENVER: "Eye watering tariffs, country by country, scream negotiation tactics, and will keep the markets on edge in the near future. This means that there is room to lower tariffs, even though a baseline of 10% has been set. The administration has shown a surprising tolerance for market pain. Now the question is, how much tolerance does it have for real economic pain during negotiations? The S&P 500's recovery after a positive ADP jobs report was a reminder of the broader economic focus. The ISM nonfarm payrolls and services data this week will be closely scrutinized, as any weakness will fuel recession fears."

JOHN HARDY CHIEF MACRO STRATEGIST SAXO BANK COPENHAGEN : "I was shocked at how negative or heavy these tariffs are. This will lead to a lot of tit for tat negotiations. What concessions can the U.S. make to lower these tariffs, what leverage they use to convince other countries to reduce these levels, be it defense concerns in Europe or Japan. China, I suspect, sticks. The Chinese response may be interesting." The market's reaction is expected to be negative. Treasuries are a safe-haven trade, particularly at the low end of the yield spectrum. Even longer-term Treasuries may do well."

"If Republicans continue to hammer on about tax reductions, I wonder whether (longer-term Treasuries are a good investment). For now, the direction seems clear. "Gold, especially short-dated U.S. Treasury bonds, is the best option for safe-keeping. You can also use it as a wildcard for long-term investments."

WALTER TODD CHIEF INVESTOR, GREENWOOD CAPITAL GREENWOOD SOUTH CAROLINA WALTER: "We only have one side to the story. That's what we do. The other side is how other countries react to what we do. This is a major factor in how the market will ultimately respond to what's being said.

The other part of the puzzle is how individual countries or groups of countries react to what's being said... Depending on what other countries are doing, I still feel like the market is looking to use the 5,500 level of the S&P 500 as a springboard.

JASON BRITTON CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER REFLECTION ASSET MANAGEMENT CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA 'I see this as a net positive. These tariff levels are a good starting point for future negotiations. Mexico and Canada remain exempted from any further tariffs. I believe the market will calm down, parse out the details and see that it is at best a mixed bag. "I am looking at the large technology companies who have huge piles of cash. I am a buyer of weakness if they are going to be squeezed by this retreat. "It's the market that's overreacting and I'm happy to take full advantage."

JOHN LUKE TYNER, APTUS CAPITAL AFFILIATES, FAIRHOPE ALABAMA Many other countries have imposed tariffs on the U.S. and, from Trump's and many other people's perspectives, it is unfair to offer more free trade while we are being pillaged by other countries. These tariffs are not temporary, they seem to be here to stay. The rhetoric has caused a decrease in consumer spending and corporate spending. It has created a bad feeling about the future which is slowing down things. "You've seen the slowdown in capital projects and CEOs' comments on markets and economy." You cannot kill the market and tax revenue and squash the economy at the same time. In many ways, the market is the economic system. So, the biggest risk is that, if the economy is really messed up in one spot, even for a short time, where does the debt to GDP end up in such an environment? "What happens to fiscal deficits if there is a 10% or 5% decline in GDP and other economic indicators? That's when things get really scary."

CHRIS ZACCARELLI CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER NORTHLIGHT ASSESSMENT, CHARLOTTE N.C.

Tariffs will increase corporate costs and decrease profits. "If we see a change in the economy, the markets will react differently, but for now, the knee-jerk reaction to price increases is the first one."

PETER CARDILLO CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITALSECURITIES, NEW YORK Now, it depends on the trading partners. Will they negotiate at the table or will they retaliate?" The effects of inflation could worsen and we could be heading toward recession."

The markets are under severe pressure, and one could say that they have reached an oversold state. "I think the markets will rally."

FREDERIQUE CARRIIER, HEAD of INVESTMENT STRATEGY, RBC Wealth Management "We expect the EU will retaliate quickly." "Europe will face steep blanket tariffs of up to 20%, which is higher than what was feared."

Profit taking on the European equity market could continue tomorrow. The impact of tariffs is unlikely to be as painful on European economies, because Europe doesn't trade with the US enough. However, it could be more severe depending on the way the situation develops, the EU response, and the extent to which tariffs harm business and consumer confidence.

(source: Reuters)