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Tornadoes and heavy rains hit central, southern US
On Wednesday, tornadoes tore across the central and south of the United States, destroying houses and businesses as well as power lines and trees. By late Wednesday, the National Weather Service reported that at least 15 tornadoes had been reported in at least four different states. No immediate reports have been made of deaths due to the storm that also brought torrential rainfall and hail. The NWS warned that flash floods, tornadoes, and other dangers will continue until early Thursday. The NWS has forecast violent storms to continue ravaging the country for several more days. Wednesday is just the beginning of "a multi-day catastrophe and possibly historic heavy rain event." Scott Kleebauer is a NWS Meteorologist. This is a wide area of storms moving slowly eastward, stretching from Southeast Michigan to southeastern Arkansas. A tornado hit the town of Nevada in Missouri. The state's Emergency Management Agency wrote on social media that it caused "major damages to several businesses. Power poles were broken and several (empty train cars) were flipped over by the powerful tornado!" The NWS issued flash flood and tornado warnings in Missouri, Arkansas Tennessee, Mississippi, Indiana Illinois Kentucky and Oklahoma. The rain threat for Arkansas, Missouri Tennessee and Mississippi is being called a "generational flooding event". Some locations are forecast to receive as much as 15" (38.1 cm), which could cause rivers burst and cause "catastrophic floods." PowerOutage.us reports that more than 350,000 customers in the storm-hit region have lost power.
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Iron ore prices fall due to US tariffs but steel demand remains resilient.
Iron ore futures fell slightly on Thursday, after U.S. president Donald Trump announced a wide range of reciprocal tariffs. However, seasonal demand for this steelmaking ingredient cushioned the fall. As of 0240 GMT, the most traded May iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was down 0.2% to 789.5 Yuan ($108.12). The benchmark iron ore for May on the Singapore Exchange fell by 0.79% to $102 per ton. Broker Galaxy Futures stated in a report that U.S. Tariffs were more aggressive than anticipated and will have a negative impact on the ferrous market. Trump announced a minimum 10% tariff on goods imported into the United States on Wednesday, and much higher duties for products from dozens countries. This is a worsening of a trade conflict that could drive inflation up and slow down U.S. economic growth. The new tariff will total 54% on Chinese imports. Beijing demanded on Thursday that the United States immediately remove its latest tariffs, and promised countermeasures in order to protect its own interests. Steelmakers increased production during the construction peak season of March and April to cushion the price fall. Analysts at ANZ said that spot buying in China was booming as the construction industry picked up. They added that steel manufacturers were more confident about downstream demand. The recovery in steel consumption will encourage steelmakers in China to increase their hot metal production, according to a report by Mysteel. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, were down by 0.6% and 0.31% respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a loss in most steel benchmarks. The price of rebar fell by 0.03%; hot-rolled coils dropped by 0.33%; stainless steel declined 1% while wire rod rose 0.24%.
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What will the impact of Trump's reciprocal duties on Indian exports be?
The United States imposed a reciprocal tariff on India on Wednesday as President Donald Trump increased trade barriers for all goods entering America. Here are some key points to consider: INDIA TARIFF RATE & COMMENTS Trump announced reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10% to 49% for other countries. In a press release, the White House stated that while India charges a 70% tariff on imports of passenger vehicles, the United States only charges 2.5%. Apples from the United States are duty-free in the U.S. but India charges 50% on U.S. imported apples. Rice is taxed at 2.7% in U.S. and 80% in India. The statement said that the United States charges a zero percent tariff on networking switches and routers. India, however, imposes rates of 10-20% higher. The U.S. trade deficit with India is $46 billion. Which sectors may be hit the most? The U.S. tariffs will affect a total of nearly $14 billion in electronics and more than $9 billion in gems and jewelry. The 26% tariff does not apply to aluminium and auto parts, but they will still be subject to the 25% tariff announced by Trump earlier. According to the White House, energy products and pharmaceuticals, which together account for nearly $9 billion in exports from India, according to government data, are exempted under the new tariffs. According to the Global Trade Research Initiative, Washington's average sectoral tariffs against India in the past were 1.05% for automobiles, 2.12% for gems and jewelry, 1.06 % for chemicals and pharmaceuticals, and 0.41 % on electronic products. What are the tariffs that other Asian countries face? The U.S. imposed a reciprocal tax of 34% on China. Japan's exports will be subject to a 24% rate, Thailand will pay 36%, Bangladesh will pay 37%, Malaysia will pay 24%, Taiwan will charge 32%, South Korea will collect 25%, and Vietnam, 46%. Comment on Non-Tariff Barriers According to the White House, India has its own unique and duplicative testing requirements and certification standards in areas such as telecom products, medical devices, chemicals and other products. This makes it difficult for American companies selling their products in India. It said that if these barriers were removed the U.S. would see an increase in exports of at least $5 billion per year. INDIA – THE WAY Ahead The two countries agreed during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s U.S. trip in February to begin talks toward a quick trade agreement and resolve their tariff standoff. India has been reported to be open to reducing tariffs for more than $23 billion of U.S. products sold to India. According to an Indian government internal report, India could gain market share by exporting textiles, footwear and apparel to the U.S. The report states that India is interested in increasing exports of iron-and-steel products, as it has the manufacturing expertise, "especially if China's tariffs are higher." Reporting by Shivangi Acharya, Aftab Ahmed and Raju Gopalakrishnan; editing by Raju Gopi Krishnakrishnan
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London copper prices drop as Trump tariffs cause demand concerns
The price of copper in London fell by more than 1.5% Thursday as the U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs sparked concern about global metal demand. As of 0131 GMT, the benchmark three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange was down 1.6% to $9,547 a metric tonne. The contract had hit $9,507 earlier in the day. It was its lowest level since March 11. Trump announced on Wednesday that a 10% minimum tariff would be applied to most imported goods into the United States. Tariffs on dozens of products could lead to a global trade conflict that would increase inflation in the U.S., and possibly hinder economic growth globally. The reciprocal tariffs sent shockwaves throughout today's stock and futures markets. The people are on edge as they anticipate what retaliatory duties other countries may levy. The specter of a escalating war on trade is the dominant force in the market," said a metals trader. Other metals include LME aluminium, which fell 1.4% to $2.456 per ton. Lead dropped 0.5% to $1.959, Zinc dropped 1.1% to 2.750, Tin was down by 2.4% to $37.030, and Nickel was down by 0.7% to $15.850 per ton. Lead fell 0.6%, and SHFE copper dropped 1.1%, to 78.970 yuan per ton. Nickel fell 1.1%, to 127.890 yuan. Tin fell 0.6%, to 291,940.
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Trump's auto duties will cover over $460 billion in US vehicle and parts imports
According to an analysis of tariff codes in a Federal Register notice published on Wednesday, the 25% auto tariffs imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump will cover imports of auto parts and vehicles worth more than $460 billion annually. Last week, Trump updated his auto tariff announcement to include nearly 150 categories of auto parts that will be subjected to tariffs beginning on May 3. This is a month after the midnight activation on Thursday of 25% tariffs for vehicle imports. List includes codes for major components such as engines, transmissions and lithium-ion battery, but also less expensive ones like tires, shocks absorbers, wires for spark plugs and brake hoses. The list includes also automotive computers that are covered by the four-digit code, which includes all computer products including desktop and laptop computers as well as disk drives. According to U.S. Census Bureau figures, imports in this category will reach $138.5 billion by 2024. The total U.S. imports of vehicles and parts excluding this category were $459,6 billion. It was not immediately apparent the value of automotive computer, which is an essential component of modern cars and trucks, including electric vehicles, because there isn't a separate tariff code for them. The list of parts, as well as the timing for tariffs to be applied on May 3, was revealed just before Trump announced that all U.S. imported goods would face a 10% tariff, while many other countries were hit with reciprocal duties higher than this, meant to counter non-tariff barriers. Senior Trump Administration officials confirmed that autos and auto components subject to Section 232 National Security Tariffs will not be charged separate baseline or reciprocal duties. The auto tariffs are not stacked on top of the new, April 5th, reciprocal tariffs. The White House has directed the Commerce Department that domestic producers can request to have other parts imported targeted within 90 days. Importers of vehicles that qualify under the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement's rules for origin can only pay 25% duty on the non-U.S. portion of their order.
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Oil falls nearly 3% following Trump's announcement of new tariffs
Oil prices fell $2 on Thursday, after U.S. president Donald Trump announced tariffs against trading partners. This stoked fears that a trade war could dampen demand for oil. Brent futures dropped $1.97 or 2.63% to $72.98 per barrel at 0033 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures fell $1.98 or 2.76% to $69.73. Trump hailed April 2 as "Liberation Day," with new duties that may overturn the global trading system. The benchmarks were higher during the previous session, but they turned negative after Trump's Wednesday press conference in which he announced an initial 10% tariff on all imports into the United States as well as higher duties for dozens of its biggest trading partners. We know that it will negatively impact trade, economic growth, and therefore oil demand. We don't yet know the full extent of the impact, as it is a few years away. The White House announced on Wednesday that imports of refined products, oil and gas were exempt from the new tariffs proposed by U.S. president Donald Trump. Trump's tariff policy could cause inflation, slow the economic growth, and intensify trade conflicts, all of which have caused oil prices to drop. Energy Information Administration data released on Wednesday confirmed the bearish mood, showing that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by an unexpectedly large 6.2 millions barrels in the past week. Analysts had expected a drop of 2.1million barrels. (Reporting and editing by SonaliPaul in New York, Nicole Jao)
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QUOTES - Trade and labor associations, analyst on Trump's reciprocal duties
Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he will impose a baseline 10% tariff on all imports into the United States, and higher duties for some of the biggest trading partners. This could lead to a trade conflict and upset the global economy. Countermeasures from trading partners could result in a dramatic increase in prices of everything, including bicycles and wine. Trump has already levied 25% on automobiles and auto parts. SCOTT WHITAKER, CEO, ADVAMED "This type of tariff would be similar to an excise duty." R&D would be the most immediate and direct victim, as it threatens America's leadership in medtech innovation. Tariffs would cost U.S. workers, increase health care costs and hinder future medical progress." RYAN ORABONE MANAGING CONSULTANT BEARINGPOINT "Diversification (of the supply chain of an apparel retailer) and manufacturing is a moot issue because tariffs impact every major geographic facility where we produce clothing." Brands need to be more strategic than ever before and plan everything with precision. "There is no room for errors anymore, including assortment, allocation and pricing." DAVID SWARTZ ANALYST MORNINGSTAR FOLLOWING FITNESS The huge tariffs on imports from Vietnam are clearly a negative for Nike Adidas and other sportswear companies. Due to the difficulty of manufacturing, athletic footwear can't be easily produced in other countries. Tariffs are also being levied on other Asian nations. The industry will not react in a panic. If the tariffs remain in place, sportswear prices will rise and margins could be affected. The chances of significant footwear and apparel manufacturing in the US being a result of any of these initiatives are virtually zero. MARI SHOR SR., EQUITIES ANALYST AT COLUMBIA TREADNEEDLE INVESTIMENTS, WHICH HOARDS NIKE STOCKS "The announcement of the tariffs is much worse than expected." Nike and other footwear companies will find it difficult to avoid a 46% tariff against Vietnam. The companies will try to fight back against vendors but tariffs are likely to drive up inflation in many categories and pressure consumer discretionary spending." CHRIS VITALE, UAW VETERAN WHO RETIRED FROM STELLANTIS, ATTENDED TRUMP'S TARIFF ANNOUNCEMENT IN PERSON "You know what's amazing is that an announcement about trade policy could become emotional." "These are the things we've been preaching about for years. We've watched our factories and our capabilities being hollowed-out. To see a President address this and use some words and thoughts I've used, was incredible." LIZ SHULER PRESIDENT AMERICAN FEDERATION of LABOR and CONGRESS INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATIONS The Trump administration's attacks against the rights of union workers at home, the gutting of government agencies that work to discourage outsourcing of American jobs, and efforts to erode crucial investments in U.S. Manufacturing take us backward. RICHARD CAPETTO, SENIOR DIRECTOR, NORTH AMERICAN GOVT. AFFAIRS IPC "A strong U.S. electronic industry requires a holistic approach - one that combines targeted investments and incentives, with policies that promote mutually beneficial trade partnership. Trade is crucial to innovation, cost-competitiveness, and supply chain resilience. Tariffs could increase costs for American companies and drive production overseas. ZOLTAN VAN HEYNINGEN EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, U.S. WOOD COALITION We welcome President Trump's measures and the focus of his administration on Canada's unfair trading practices. We are especially pleased that the President has launched the Section 232 Investigation under the Trade Expansion Act of 1964 focusing on the imports of softwood lumber. MARK COMPTON EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR THE AMERICAN EXPLORATION & MINING ASSOCATION We are encouraged that the Trump administration is prioritizing the production and processing of domestic minerals so we can have the raw materials our manufacturing base, and society needs. We are looking forward to working together with the administration in order to ensure that the domestic mining industry can meet this challenge. TONY REDONDO, FOUNDER AT COSMOS CURRENCY EXCHANGE Intel is not immune to the cost increases caused by imported chips. Semiconductor giants such as Nvidia are also affected. China's retaliation against rare materials may worsen shortages. PC makers (Dell and HP) may face cost increases of 10%-25%, which could add $200-$500/unit to the unit price, causing margins to be squeezed or prices to rise. The cost of chips and steel may cause delays for AI server companies (Nvidia and Amazon). Construction and retailers like Walmart could also be affected. "Short-term, higher costs and chaos." "Long-term, maybe more U.S. Manufacturing but labor and infrastructure are lagging." Consumers will face higher prices by 2025, unless companies absorb the costs. This is not common. BERNSTEIN ANATOMY "We are concerned that the vehicle and part tariffs will be here to stay, and they will add a significant cost burden to this sector." We see more downside risk for automotive stocks if automotive tariffs do not get reversed, but are instead extended. TOM MADRECKI VICE-PRESIDENT OF SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENCY CONSUMER BRANDS AFFILIATION The majority of consumer packaged goods are already manufactured in the United States. There are some critical inputs and ingredients that must be imported because they are scarce in the United States. Tariffs alone will not bring these ingredients back to the U.S. "Reciprocal Tariffs that don't reflect the availability of ingredients and inputs will increase costs, limit access to affordable products for consumers and unintentionally hurt iconic American manufacturers." We urge President Trump and his advisors to refine their approach to exempting key ingredients and inputs, in order to prevent inflation and protect manufacturing jobs. LENNY LARCCA, KPMG U.S. AUTOMOTIVE LEADERS "U.S. Automakers are looking for steps they can take to mitigate tariffs in the short term, such as working on items that can be shipped to the U.S. rapidly without major investment." Massive longer-term investments require more time and clarity." The current playbook of the U.S. automobile industry is insufficient, and it's a momentous time for them. Automakers have an opportunity to change the way they do business. Leverage emerging technologies like AI in all areas of their business. Explore and make alliance decisions faster. "Speed up the vehicle production cycle time." This watershed moment presents an opportunity for mergers and purchases. DAVID McCALL, PRESIDENT UNITED STAINWORKERS INTERNATIONAL We must make sure that our trade policy is aimed at cheaters and not trusted economic allies such as Canada. We should work to build relationships, not barriers, with partners who have shown their commitment to join us in tackling the global overcapacity. The administration must also take measures to prevent companies using tariffs to increase prices on consumers. MIKE HAWES is the CEO of UK's Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. The tariffs cannot be absorbed, and the U.S. consumer may pay more for British products, while UK producers could have to reduce production due to a constrained market. SETH GOLDSTEIN MORNINGSTAR ANALYST FOR U.S. SETH GOLDSTEIN, MORNINGSTAR ANALYST ON U.S. "I expect lower volumes due to tariffs." Tariffs are likely to be passed on to the consumer in order to increase prices of products. "I expect that consumers will buy less goods." Due to the high fixed costs of chemical production, lower volume would have a large impact on profits. We could also see another year with declining profits if tariffs are widely implemented. Many chemical producers manufacture their products in the U.S. for domestic sales, so there is less direct impact. DAVID FRENCH EXECUTIVE V.P. OF GOVERNMENT RELATIONS AT THE NATIONAL RAILWAY FEDERATION "More Tariffs = More Anxiety and Uncertainty for American Businesses and Consumers. Tariffs represent a tax that is paid by U.S. importers and passed on to the final consumer. No foreign country or supplier will pay tariffs. "We encourage President Trump, to hold trading partners responsible and restore fairness to American businesses without creating uncertainty or higher prices for American consumers." ART WHEATON DIRECTOR, ILR SCHOOL CORNELL UNIVERSITY, LABOR STUDIES It will take years and billions to bring new manufacturing jobs online. However, expansions in existing factories can happen much faster. Companies prioritize stability. Frequent policy changes can slow down investment decisions, as businesses wait to see clearer long-term signals. MICHAEL ASHLEY SCHULMAN IS A PARTNER AT RUNNINGPOINT CAPITAL ADVISORS AND THE CIO. "Trump may be trying not only to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. but also to increase the economic instability of China by putting tariffs on Chinese goods. Tariffs of 34% on Chinese products could force Chinese manufacturers to shut down, leading to increased unemployment and social unrest in China. If these tariffs are imposed, they will have a significant impact on the PC, server, and semiconductor manufacturers. Investors, analysts and politicians will all be watching with bated breathe to see what happens after this 'Liberation Day volley' from the administration. The announcement today is likely to be a worst case scenario. Hopefully, any negotiations will lead to improvements. Reporting by Juby B. Babu from Mexico City; Vallari Srivastava in San Francisco; Abhirup Roy and Caroline Humer at New York City; Nick Brown, Shounak D. Dasgupta, and Alan Barona for the editors.
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BHP considers spinning off its iron ore and coal divisions
Three sources familiar with the matter said that BHP, the world's largest listed miner, considered splitting off its Australian coal and iron ore divisions as part a medium-term strategy for growth. BHP Group considered separating the divisions as part of its plan to focus on commodities such as potash and cobalt, which are expected to grow in the future. Two sources confirmed that the company had considered a listing for Australia before management decided against it. They said that the consideration was in progress as BHP was preparing to bid on Anglo American for 2023 and 2024 and was pushing to green their business. BHP has declined to comment. This would fundamentally reshape BHP and divorce it from the more than 50 years of iron ore mines in Australia where it was founded in 1885. About 60% of BHP's profits are derived from iron ore. By separating coal from iron ore, the majority of its carbon emissions would be reduced. BHP will keep its South Australian assets. This is in line with its strategy of being a leader in the supply of metals needed for the energy transformation. BHP has decided to not move forward with its plans at this time, but the discussions provide an insight into how the miner will re-calibrate its future direction after a change of senior leadership. The former National Australia Bank chair Ross McEwan took over as BHP chairman this week after Ken MacKenzie left. A contest to replace CEO Mike Henry, who is in his fifth year at the top, will soon begin. Henry and David Lamont, BHP's CFO who stepped down in February 2024 from his role, spoke with investors about the plan to separate BHP’s future growth from declining growth businesses by the end of this decade. They decided that it was not the best time, because BHP needed the enormous amounts of cash generated from the two Australian divisions in order to fund capital expenditures at its Escondida Copper Complex in Chile and Jansen Potash Development in Canada. BHP believes that a spin-off from iron ore and coking coal will generate cash and franking credit benefits for Australian tax payers, so there may be a lot of interest on the part of Australians in any flotation. The people also said that a copper and potash unit with more freedom would be able to explore new combinations, like Teck Resources. BHP's refusal to buy Anglo, a copper-focused company that would have helped cash flow and boosted the copper business, complicated the plan. Meanwhile, the desire to go green has diminished as corporations around the world retreat from environmental goals. This suggests that any further progress on this path could be further away. Another person said: "The strategy depends on copper and potassium being self-sustaining business, as both have large capital needs for the next five years." (Reporting and editing by Melanie Burton, Barbara Lewis, Sam Holmes and Veronica Brown)
Gold prices rise on demand for safe-havens ahead of US tariffs
The gold price continued to rise on Wednesday after hitting a new record in the previous session. Investors sought comfort in the metal as they waited for the impact of U.S. tariffs.
As of 0240 GMT, spot gold was up 0.7% to $3,131.25 per ounce. Bullion reached a record high of $3148.88 Tuesday.
U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.4% to $3.159.90.
The main reason behind these consecutive record highs is safe-haven purchasing, and the geopolitical uncertainties that underpin this show no signs of abating," said Philip Newman.
Newman stated that a U.S. slowdown in economic growth, a potential increase in inflation and interest rate reductions could lead to gold reaching $3,300 within the next few months.
The market is in suspense ahead of the U.S. Tariffs that will be implemented later today, a day President Donald Trump called "Liberation Day."
Trump's tariff policy could cause inflation to rise, economic growth to slow and trade disputes escalate.
In an environment of low interest rates, gold, which is a hedge against inflation and global instability, flourishes.
The White House confirmed that new tariffs would be implemented, but did not provide details about the size and scope.
Bullion's rise has been fueled by a number of factors, including strong demand from central banks, the expectation that interest rates will be lowered by the Federal Reserve and the geopolitical unrest in the Middle East, Europe and Asia, as well as increased flows into exchange-traded funds backed by gold.
Aakash Doshi is the global head of Gold Strategy at State Street Global Advisors. He said that in a bull-case scenario, the market could reach $3,400/oz within 9 months.
Fed officials are worried that employment may slip, but they can't do much about it because of the threat from tariff-driven inflation.
The markets await the ADP employment report, due later today, and non-farm pay on Friday.
Spot silver increased 0.2%, to $33.82 per ounce. Platinum gained 0.8%, to $987.66. Palladium rose 0.7%, to $990.45.
(source: Reuters)