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The US tariffs continue to affect the Gulf market.
The Gulf's major stock exchanges fell early on Monday, in line with Asian markets as U.S. president Donald Trump's aggressive trade tariffs and criticism of the Federal Reserve Chief continued to undermine investor confidence. Last week, Trump attacked Fed chair Jerome Powell. This fueled speculation about his possible removal and raised questions about U.S. financial security and the central bank’s autonomy. Credibility of the Fed as the most powerful central banking institution in history is largely based on its historical independence, which has allowed it to act without political influence. Saudi Arabia's benchmark stock index dropped 0.2% on Sunday, mainly due to a drop of 0.4% in the oil giant Saudi Aramco as well as a decrease of 0.6% in Saudi Telecom Company. Oil prices, a key factor in the Gulf financial markets, fell by 1.5% on Sunday as investors focused once again on fears that tariffs on U.S. trading partner countries would create economic headwinds. In Abu Dhabi the index fell by 0.2%. The Qatari Index fell 0.1%. Qatar Electricity and Water Company, a utility company, declined 2.5% after a drop in its first-quarter profits. Dubai's main stock index rose by 0.3%, aided by Emaar Properties, a blue-chip developer, which saw a 0.8% increase.
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The March palm oil exports of Indonesia have decreased due to rising local demand
The exports of crude palm oil and refined palm oils from Indonesia fell by nearly 2% between February and March, as the local consumption increased due to Ramadan. However, shipments for March were the highest they have been in the last four years. The lower stocks will be supported by the higher exports from Indonesia this year, the largest producer of tropical oil in the world. Prices that were trading at premiums for the past few months have now started to trade at a discount. The statistics bureau reported that Indonesia exported 2,002 tons of crude palm oil and refined palm oils in March, a slight decrease from 2,006 tons the month before. Exports are still up 13% since March 2024. The data revealed that March's shipments totaled $2.19 billion compared to February's $2.27 million. The data of the bureau exclude palm kernel oil and biodiesel. GAPKI, the Indonesian palm oil association, releases its own data later. This includes more products. The export figures are also different. The consumption of palm oil in Indonesia, which is the largest Muslim majority nation on earth, usually increases during Ramadan. Anilkumar bagani, the research head at Mumbai-based Sunvin Group, who deals in vegetable oils, says that there was no significant decline in Indonesian exports because palm oil prices were still attractive for buyers when compared with Malaysian offerings. He said that April exports were expected to be higher due to the strong purchasing by India and other Asian countries. Palm oil is mainly competing with supplies of soyoil, sunflower oil, and Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine. "Palm Oil has started to trade at a discounted price in comparison with soyoil." This should boost exports over the next few months when production is expected to increase," said a New Delhi-based dealer at a global trading house. The dealer stated that despite lower exports, inventories of palm oil in Indonesia could have decreased due to lower production during the Ramadan holiday and increased consumption as a result of the country's implementation a mandatory 40% biodiesel mix.
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Shanghai copper firms up as dollar falls
Shanghai copper prices rose on Monday, as the dollar fell to its lowest level in three years. However, a trade war between China and the U.S., the top metals consumer in the world, is likely to limit any further gains. As of 0342 GMT, the most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was up 0.6%, trading for 76,480 Yuan ($10 494) per ton. London Metal Exchange (LME), is closed for Easter Monday. Dollar plunged Monday, as investor confidence in U.S. economics took another hit due to President Donald Trump’s plans to shake-up the Federal Reserve. This would put into question the independence and authority of the central banks. Separately on Monday, China warned against striking an economic deal with the United States that would be at its expense. It was ratcheting its rhetoric up in the spiralling trade conflict between the two largest economies of the world. Xie feng, China's ambassador in the United States, urged Washington to find common ground with Beijing, and to pursue peaceful coexistence, while warning that China was ready to retaliate as the trade war escalated. Other metals include: SHFE aluminium, which rose 0.7%, to 19,840 Chinese yuan per ton; zinc, up 0.98% to 22,230 yuan; lead, up 0.7%, to 16,930 Yuan; tin, up 1.2%, to 259,000 yuan; and nickel, up 0.4%, to 126.120 Yuan. $1 = 7.2876 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Sherry J. Phillips, Mrigank Dhaniwala).
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Gold soars at record high due to trade war fears and weaker dollar
Gold prices soared to record highs on Monday due to concerns about global economic growth caused by the spiraling Sino-U.S. Trade War. A weaker dollar also boosted the rally. As of 0246 GMT the spot gold price had risen 1.7%, to $3383.87 per ounce, after reaching a session high of $3384 earlier. U.S. Gold Futures rose 2% to $3 396.10. Dollar index hits three-year low making gold more appealing for holders of other currencies. "Markets are pricing in heightened risks due to U.S. trade tensions, stagflation fears, and resilient central bank demand," said IG's market strategist Yeap Jun-Rong. On April 2, U.S. president Donald Trump announced "reciprocal" tariffs on dozens countries. While his administration has paused levies on some countries, they have escalated their trade battle with China. China warned other countries on Monday against signing a wider economic agreement with the United States, which Trump is said to be seeking. Trump's team is evaluating the possibility of firing Powell. Russia and Ukraine have accused each other on the geopolitical stage of thousands of attacks which violated the ceasefire of one day declared by President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin has said that there was no order for the frontline fighting to be extended. The safe haven bullion is in good hands. Rong stated that the next possible milestone for gold would be at the $3,500 mark. However, positioning could appear crowded near term, and technical indicators indicate near-term conditions of overboughtness. Silver spot rose 0.3%, to $32.66 per ounce. Platinum gained 0.3%, to $969.68. Palladium dropped 0.3%, to $959.43. (Reporting and editing by Anmol Mukherjee and Anushree Choubey in Bengaluru, and Sumana D'Souza and Savio d'Souza).
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Shanghai copper prices rise on Dollar weakness
Shanghai copper prices rose slightly on Monday, as the dollar fell to its lowest level in three years. However, a continuing trade tension between the U.S., which is the world's largest metals consumer, and China was likely to limit any further gains. As of 1400 GMT, the most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was up 0.2%, trading for 76150 yuan per ton ($10,443.38). London Metal Exchange (LME), is closed for Easter Monday. Investor confidence in the U.S. economic system took a further hit as a result of President Donald Trump's plans for a shake-up at the Federal Reserve. This would put into question the independence and authority of the central banks. Separately China stated that it respected all parties who resolved economic and trade disputes with the United States by consultation on equal footing but will firmly oppose anyone striking a deal on China's cost, its Commerce Ministry announced on Monday. Xie feng, China's ambassador in the United States, urged Washington to find common ground with Beijing, and to pursue peaceful coexistence, while warning that China was ready to retaliate as the trade war escalated. Other metals include: SHFE aluminium, which rose 0.2%, to 19,740 Yuan per ton; zinc, up 0.7% to 22,180 Yuan; lead, up 0.4%, to 16,880 Yuan; tin, up 0.6%, to 258,280 Yan, and nickel, down 0.2%, to 125420 Yuan.
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Indians suffer from respiratory problems and skin rashes after living in the world's worst polluted city
Sumaiya Ansari was suffering from breathing difficulties for several days prior to being hospitalized in March. She was given oxygen support. Doctors say that her illness is likely caused by high pollution levels. According to IQAir's estimates, Byrnihat’s average annual PM2.5 concentration was 128.2 milligrams per cubic meter in 2024, which is over 25 times higher than the WHO recommended level. PM2.5 is particulate matter that has a diameter of 2.5 microns and less. This can cause deadly diseases, including heart problems. Abdul Halim, Ansari’s father, said, "It was scary. She was breathing like fish." He brought Ansari home after two days in the hospital. According to data from the government, respiratory infections cases in the region increased to 3,681 by 2024, up from 2,082 in 2012. Dr. J Marak, of Byrnihat Primary Healthcare Centre, said that 90% of the patients he sees daily have a cough and/or other respiratory problems. Residents report that the toxic air causes skin rashes, eye irritations, damages crops and prevents them from doing routine tasks such as drying their laundry outside. Dildar Hussain, a farmer, said: "Everything has been covered in dust or soot." Critics claim that Byrnihat's pollution problem is indicative of a larger trend that affects not only India's major cities but also the Capitalism As industrialisation accelerates, environmental protections are being eroded. Government data shows that the air quality in Byrnihat remains poor throughout the year. Experts say that the pollution problem in this town is worsened by the fact that it has a "bowl-shaped" topography and 80 industries, many of which are highly polluting. Arup Misra, the chairman of Assam’s pollution control board, said that the terrain between Meghalaya's hills and Assam’s plains is too narrow for pollutants to spread. A Meghalaya official, who declined to be identified, stated that the town's geographical location made it harder to find a solution, as both states shifted blame between themselves. Assam, Meghalaya and IQAir have formed a joint committee to fight the pollution in Byrnihat. (Reporting and writing by Tora Aggarwala, Sakshi Dayal and Raju Gopalakrishnan; editing by Raju Gopi Krishnan)
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Progress in US-Iran negotiations eases supply concerns, lowering oil prices
The oil prices dropped by about 1% after the nuclear talks between Iran and the United States progressed. This eased concerns that this dispute would reduce the supply of the Middle Eastern major producer. Brent crude futures fell 70 cents or 1.03% to $67.26 per barrel at 0030 GMT, after closing 3.2% higher on Thursday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was trading at $64, down 68 cents or 1.05% after closing up 3.54% the previous session. Last week, Thursday was the final settlement day due to the Good Friday holiday. Iran's Foreign Minister said that the U.S. had agreed to start drafting a framework for any potential nuclear deal with Iran on Saturday, following talks described by a U.S. government official as "very positive progress." Progress in the nuclear talks follows the U.S. imposing further sanctions last week. These included sanctions against a teapot oil refinery based in China, which it claims processed Iranian crude. This increased pressure on Tehran during the discussions. Teapot is the industry term for smaller independent processors. Brent and WTI both gained about 5% in the last week due to concerns about the tightening of Iranian oil supplies and hopes for an agreement between the United States, and the European Union. This was their first weekly increase in three weeks. Separately, Russia, Ukraine and President Vladimir Putin blamed each for breaking the one-day ceasefire declared on Easter Sunday by the Russian president. Both sides accused the other of hundreds attacks, and the Kremlin said there was never an order to extend the ceasefire. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Florence Tan is the reporter)
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Interfax reports that the Russian economy ministry has cut its Brent price forecast for 2025 by almost 17%.
Interfax reported on Monday morning that the Russian economy ministry had reduced its forecast of the average price for Brent crude in 2025 from the amount it thought the price would be in September by almost 17%. Interfax reported that in the ministry's baseline scenario for economic forecasts of 2025, the average price of Brent is expected to be $68 per barrel, down from $81.7 per barrel in the September forecasts. The Ministry of Finance estimates that the price of Urals, Russia’s main blend, is $56 per barrel, compared to the $69.7 per barrelle on which Russia based its budget for 2025. The agency quoted a ministry representative as saying, "We think that this is an estimate which is fairly conservative." Oil and gas revenues account for a third (or more) of the budget. In April, the Russian central bank had warned that due to a lower global demand, oil prices may be lower for several years than expected. Urals prices dropped to their lowest level since 2023 early April, trading at around $53 a barrel. They traded below $60 per barrel last week. The ministry said that it did not expect a recession to occur due to the trade wars of U.S. president Donald Trump and believes global growth will be slightly higher than 2% this year. Interfax quoted the representative of the ministry as saying: "The world's still bigger than the United States. So some flows will be directed." The Ministry maintained its forecast of 2.5% for the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Russia and raised its inflation forecast from 4.5% to 7.6%. The rouble is also expected to be slightly stronger this year than it was previously forecasted, with an average of 94,3 roubles for every dollar, compared to an earlier prediction of 96.5.
Trump threatens a 200% increase in wine tariffs if the EU doesn't remove whiskey tariff
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he will impose a 200% tariff on all wine and other alcoholic beverages coming from the European Union as long as the bloc does not remove the tariff it has placed on whiskey.
The European Commission announced on Wednesday it would impose counter-tariffs on U.S. products worth 26 billion euros (28 billion dollars) from next month. This will intensify a global trading war as a response to U.S. tariffs that cover steel and aluminum.
The EU executive, however, said that it was open to negotiation and considered that higher tariffs were not in anyone's best interest.
Trump increased the stakes in a Thursday social media post.
Trump posted on Truth Social that "The European Union has just imposed a 50% tariff on whisky, which is a terrible and unfair taxation and tariffing authority, formed solely to take advantage of the United States."
If this tariff is not removed immediately, then the U.S. soon will place a 200% tariff on all WINE, CHAMPAGNES & ALCOHOLIC products coming out of France and other E.U. REPRESENTED COUNTRIES. "This will be great news for the Wine and Champagne industries in the U.S."
U.S. stocks futures fell and European spirits maker shares also dropped.
The European Commission announced that it would end the current suspension of its tariffs against U.S. goods on April 1, and that they will be fully implemented by April 13. Reporting by Doina chiacu in Washington, and Phil Blenkinsop from Brussels. Editing by Louise Heavens and Bernadette Baum. Mark Porter.
(source: Reuters)