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Asia dollar bond volumes seen increasing 20% as China deals gather pace

Asian dollar bond issuance is expected to increase around 20% in 2025 over last year, driven by Chinese financial obligation offers and as U.S. rate of interest cuts make it more economical for business to issue dollar bonds rather than regional currency financial obligation.

In the first few days of 2025, at least $6 billion worth of dollar bonds were provided, LSEG data and term sheets reviewed by Reuters showed. Offers have been priced by the Export Import Bank of Korea and aluminium producer China Hongqiao Group.

We are expecting about a 20% increase in dollar bonds out of Asia, not taking into consideration Japan or Australia, to reach about $220-$ 225 billion in 2025, Rishi Jalan, Citigroup's. Asia Pacific financial obligation distribute head, stated. Around $175 billion. worth of dollar bonds were provided in 2024.

To reach that level, a great deal of guns will have to fire to. satisfy that volume, he said.

So, we will require to see a few of the huge China tech names. come back in size, a pick-up in issuance in India, there has. been a lot of volume lost in India to regional currencies and that. will require to come back into dollars.

Increased dollar issuance helps fund Asia-based business'. expansion aspirations and nudges charges higher for significant investment. banks working as bookrunners on the offers.

Higher U.S. rates of interest for most of the past 2 years. had made it more affordable for numerous business in Asia to issue bonds in. their own currencies or rely on domestic bank funding rather. than concern dollar bonds.

The Fed minimized the policy rate by a complete portion. point over its last 3 meetings of 2024, and is expected to. keep the rate in the existing range of 4.25% to 4.5% at the next. conference on Jan. 28-29.

China's technology behemoths are predicted to lead the surge. in dollar financial obligation issuance this year, Jalan said. As a precursor,. e-commerce firms Alibaba and Meituan raised a. combined $7.5 billion via dollar bonds late in 2015.

The 2 tech giants raised money in 2015 partially to pay. down debt and access capital to fund future growth. Bankers. anticipate that pattern to continue in 2025.

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China, an engine of growth for the dollar debt market in. Asia, released $77.1 billion worth of dollar bonds in 2024,. according to Dealogic information, an 81% boost on the $42.5 billion. raised one year earlier.

In spite of the sharp increase, however, the volume remained well. off the 2019 peak when $210.5 billion was raised, the data. showed.

High grade Chinese companies have the ability to provide now and. those companies are more comfy with where the rates are. compared to 2023 and very first half of 2024, stated Avinash Thakur,. head of capital markets financing, Asia Pacific, at Barclays.

There will be issuance in tech, they have funding. requirements and in the industrials sector, he stated.

Bankers stated it was unlikely the country's troubled property. sector, a significant issuer of scrap bonds before a debt crisis hit. the sector in 2021, will return to the marketplaces anytime soon as. it remains in turmoil.

The sector is still under pressure, residential or commercial property prices. continue to be down and debt levels are high, Thakur stated.

Somewhere else in the area, South Korean dollar bond issuance. rose 14.5% in 2024 to nearly $50 billion however the present. political instability could trigger investors to avoid handle. that market, stated Jini Lee, a partner at law office Ashurst.

Investors looking to diversify far from U.S. investments. and had actually wished to invest in Asia might have looked towards India. and Korea, Lee stated, including that due to pessimism towards. China, other Asian markets have actually gotten popularity with financiers. from outside the area.

Some financiers may pick to wait on the political. situation to stabilise before buying South Korean. companies so the market may be a little muted prior to that.

(source: Reuters)