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Trump says Iran's current leaders are'very reasonable', as Pakistan prepares for talks
President Donald Trump claimed that the U.S. has been meeting with Iran "directly and indirect" and that the new Iranian leaders were "very reasonable". This was as more U.S. troops arrived in the area and Tehran warned they would not accept humiliation. Trump's comments on Sunday come after Pakistan, acting as an intermediary between Tehran, Iran and Washington, announced that it would be hosting "meaningful discussions" in the next few days to end the Iran?war, which has lasted for a month. Trump said to reporters Sunday night as he traveled on Air Force One from New York City to Washington. Trump claimed that he believed the U.S. already achieved regime change in Iran after the strikes killed the country’s supreme ruler and other top officials. He said, however, twice that the replacements of these officials seemed "reasonable". Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in an initial Israeli attack on 28 February. He was replaced by Mojtaba, his son. The war in the Middle East has killed thousands of people, caused the largest disruption to energy supply and hit the global economy. Ishaq Dar, Pakistan's Foreign Minister, said that talks between regional ministers on Sunday focused on ways to end the war quickly and possible U.S. Iran talks in Islamabad. He said, "Pakistan is honored to host and facilitate meaningful discussions between the two parties in the coming days for a comprehensive settlement of the conflict." It wasn't clear if the U.S. or Iran had agreed to participate. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf was the speaker of Iran's parliament. He accused the U.S. earlier of sending messages regarding possible negotiations, while simultaneously planning an invasion. He said that Tehran would be ready to act if U.S. troops were deployed. In a national message, he stated that "we will never accept humiliation" as long as the Americans want Iran to surrender. The US Department of Defense has sent thousands of troops into the Middle East to give Trump the option of launching an offensive on the ground. Israel's official stated that it had no plans to reduce its attacks on Iran in anticipation of any possible talks between Washington or Tehran. Israel would continue to strike what they called military targets. ISRAELI STRIKES Israel's military claimed that it launched 140 air strikes against central and western Iran including Tehran in the 24 hours leading up to Sunday evening. These included missile launchers and storage sites, among others. Iranian state media reported that strikes had been carried out on the airport of Mehrabad and a petrochemical facility in Tabriz, a city located to the north. The chemical plant, located in southern Israel, near the city Beersheba, was struck by a missile fragment or missile as Israel battled multiple Iranian salvos. Officials warned the public not to enter the area due to "hazardous material". The blockade of Iran's Strait of Hormuz by the Islamic Republic, which is responsible for 20% of all oil and gas exports, has caused oil prices to rise and economic pain around the globe. As investors sank into a prolonged Gulf conflict, oil prices are already heading to a record-breaking monthly increase. This will lead to a surge in inflation and a risk of recession for much of the world. Japan's Nikkei Index was down 4.7%. Brent crude oil is on track to set a new record for monthly gains. Brent crude futures rose $3.09 or 2.74% to $115.66 per barrel at 2353 GMT, after closing 4.2% higher?Friday. More US Troops arrive The New York Times, citing military officials, reported that several hundred special operations personnel had arrived in the area. The U.S. Military has announced that thousands of U.S. Marines arrived on Friday aboard an assault ship amphibious, the first of a two-contingent contingent. Multiple news outlets have reported that the Pentagon is considering options for military forces that may include ground troops, but that Trump hasn't approved any of these plans. In a Financial Times interview published on Sunday, Trump stated that he wished to "take oil in Iran", and that he could seize Kharg Island's export hub. To take control of Kharg, ground troops would be needed. Seizing the island would allow the United States to disrupt Iran's energy trade and put enormous pressure on Tehran. A majority of Americans oppose the war and an escalation of military force, which could lead to a prolonged crisis, would probably further damage Trump's approval rating, already low, ahead of the November midterm elections in Congress. Houthis from Yemen, who are Iran-aligned, joined the conflict Saturday. They launched their first attacks against Israel, and raised the possibility that they could target the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and block it. Israeli authorities announced on Sunday that two drones were intercepted from Yemen. (Reporting and writing by bureaux, Brad Heath and Michael Perry, and Sergio Non and Stephen Coates).
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Gold drops as Houthi attacks lift oil and Fed rate-cut expectations dim
Gold prices fell on Monday as a rise in energy costs fueled inflation fears and dampened expectations of interest rate reductions by the U.S. Federal Reserve this year. As of 0238 GMT, spot gold was down 0.6% at $4466.99 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for April Delivery fell 0.6% to $4496.30. Gold is down more than 15 percent this month. This is the steepest decline in a single month since October 2008 as the U.S. Dollar strengthened. Since the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran began February 28, the currency has gained over 2%. The 'bigger macro picture' behind the underperformance of gold is the massive shift in interest rate expectations... The USD has picked that up, and gold's outlook is also rate-dependent. This has been a factor in gold's underperformance, as it was expected that the policy rate would be lower with a new Federal Reserve Chair, which has worked against gold, said Nicholas Frappell. The traders now believe that there is little chance for the U.S. to cut its interest rate this year. Higher energy prices are likely to increase inflation and reduce scope for monetary ease. This is in contrast to expectations of two rate cuts prior to the start of the conflict. Gold's popularity as a "hedge" is usually boosted by inflation, but high interest rates are reducing its appeal. Brent crude oil rose above $115 per barrel over the weekend after Yemeni Houthis attacked Israel, widening the war and increasing inflation. The contract rose 60% in March, which was a record monthly increase. In an interview published by the Financial Times on Sunday, U.S. president Donald Trump stated that he wanted to "take the Iranian oil" and could seize Kharg Island's export hub. Gold's price movement last week indicated a reaction to an oversold situation and a potential reversal in recent declines. This must be confirmed this week by the price action. It's easy to anticipate volatility, given the rapid?flow headline news," Frappell said. Spot silver dropped 1.3% to $68.67 an ounce. Palladium and platinum spot prices rose by 1% each to $1391 while platinum gained 0.3%. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Nandy, Harikrishnan Nair; Noel John from Bengaluru)
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Iron ore prices on the rise as investors compare rising costs with high portside stock
Iron ore futures were in a narrow range on Monday as investors weighed the impact of high energy prices, a rise in steel demand in China's top consumer against high portside stocks. As of 0219 GMT, the?most-traded contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was up 0.37% to 815.5 Yuan ($117.84). As of?0209 GMT, the benchmark May iron ore price on the Singapore Exchange had not changed much. It was $106.05 per ton. The price of a key ingredient in steelmaking has been supported by rising energy costs, but they have not been impacted much by the 'immediate shocks' caused by the Middle East conflict. Analysts at JP Morgan wrote in a recent note that "it doesn't seem like there will be any imminent production cuts". Iron ore prices were also boosted by expectations that steel demand would improve in China. Portside iron ore stock levels remained high despite the?a moderated, limiting room for price increases. The ore stock at 47 major Chinese port ports reached a record-high of 179 million tonne earlier this month, before dropping to 177 millions tons by the end of the week. The market is also focused on the developments surrounding the negotiations between China's state iron ore buyer, and the third largest supplier in the world - BHP. Their protracted dispute over supply contracts has exacerbated price volatility. Coke and other steelmaking materials, such as coking coal, have both advanced by?0.21% et 0.4%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's steel benchmarks gained ground. Rebar gained 0.61%; hot-rolled coil grew 0.3%; wire rod rose 0.27%; and stainless steel edged upwards by 0.14%. ($1 = 6.9203 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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Media reports that the manhunt for a fugitive accused of killing 2 Australian police officers has ended with the death of the suspect.
Australian police killed a gunman who had been on the lam for seven months, after allegedly killing two police officers in a remote area of Victoria state. The reports stated that Dezi Filby, a 56-year-old man, formerly known as Desmond Freeman, was shot dead at around 8:30 am on Monday (2130 GMT Sunday) after a three-hour confrontation at a rural property located in northeast Victoria. Victoria Police Chief commissioner Mike?Bush refused to confirm the identity of a person who was shot by police until official identification had been made, but said that the shooting was justified. Bush told reporters at a press briefing that "everything I know tells me right now that this shooting was justified". He added that no officers were hurt during the incident. We're trying to determine the consequences of this. "We strongly believe - yet to be verified - that he was armed." Over 450 officers were involved in the hunt for Freeman, since August. He allegedly opened up on a group of 10 officers when they arrived to carry out a search warrant at a Porepunkah property, located about 300 km (186 miles northeast of Melbourne). The authorities offered a reward of A$1,000,000 ($684,700), if they could lead to his capture. Freeman, who is believed to be an expert in bushcraft and possess multiple powerful guns, fled into bushland at Mount Buffalo National Park after the shooting. Local media has described him as "a sovereign citizen", which is a term that's used for individuals who view the government as unlegitimate. The Age newspaper reported that Freeman had been found dead and shot by police on a large rural estate in Victoria's remote Walwa area, approximately 180 km (112 miles) northeast of Porepunkah. The report stated that satellite imagery showed the property to be studded with several buildings, two shipping container, a caravan, and several abandoned vehicles.
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Brent crude sets record monthly increase after stocks plunge in Asia
Investors in Asia lowered their expectations for the Gulf conflict, which is already causing oil prices to rise at a record rate. This will lead to a surge in inflation and an increase in recession risk for much of the world. According to the 'Financial Times', Donald Trump said that the U.S. might'seize the?Kharg Island, in the Persian Gulf from where Iran exports most of its oil. But he also suggested that a ceasefire would be imminent. Pakistan has said that it is preparing "meaningful discussions" in the coming days to end the conflict with Iran, despite Tehran's earlier accusation of Washington preparing an assault on the land as the U.S. military sent more troops into the region. Yemen's Houthis, who are also Iran-aligned, launched their first attack on Israel since the beginning of the conflict. Madison Cartwright is a senior geo-economic analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. She said that Iran's ability to control the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt global energy, food, and agricultural markets as well as its missile and drone capabilities are not enough to encourage it to give in, forcing the U.S. into escalation. We expect the conflict to last at least until June. The risk is that it could be a much longer one. Prices for fuel, oil, gas and fertiliser have risen as a result of the clampdown in the Strait, along with prices for plastics, aluminium, and planes. Food, pharmaceuticals and other petrochemical products will all see their prices rise. This is a bad thing for Asia as a large part of the region relies heavily on Middle Eastern energy. Japan's Nikkei lost another 4.7% bringing March losses to almost 14%. South Korea's stock market dropped 4.2% while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan fell 1.2%. S&P futures dropped 0.9%, while Nasdaq's futures declined 0.7%. EUROSTOXX Futures, DAX Futures, and FTSE Futures all fell 1.5% in Europe. Brent crude climbed 3.0% to $115.98 per barrel, topping the gains made by Iraq after its invasion of Kuwait in 1990. U.S. crude rose 3.0% to $102.52, a rise of 53% for the month. Bruce Kasman warned that the longer the Strait remains shut, the more the buffer supply will be reduced, which could lead to dramatic increases in crude oil, gas, and other commodities. The scenario of the Strait remaining closed for another month is consistent with rising oil prices towards $150/bbl, and constraints on energy consumption by industrial consumers. As payrolls loom, the FED is in focus. Investors have revised up their expectations for interest rates in almost all countries due to the inflationary threat. The markets now expect the Federal Reserve to tighten interest rates by 12 basis points this year compared to 50 basis points a month earlier. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at a later event on Monday. John Williams, the influential head of New York Fed will also be speaking. This week, data on U.S. manufacturing, retail sales and payrolls will give an update on the?state of the economy. After February's shocking 92,000-job drop, jobs are expected to rise by 55,000 in march, maintaining unemployment at 4.4%. The European Union is expected to release figures on Tuesday showing that annual inflation jumped to 2.7% from 1.9% in March, but core prices should remain stable. Energy shocks, coupled with increased borrowing costs, and the need to increase defence spending have slammed sovereign bond markets. The yields on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds are up 47 basis points this month, at 4.428%. Two-year yields also have increased 54 basis points. The U.S. Dollar has been favored by increased volatility on the markets as the most liquid currency in the world. The United States has a comparative advantage over Europe and much of Asia because it is also a net exporter of energy. The dollar held at 160.12yen after last week crossing the 160 barrier for first time since July 20,24, when Japan intervened last to support the currency. The euro was stuck around $1.15, just a little bit above the low of March at $1.1409. Gold was down by 1.0% on commodity markets at $4,445 per ounce, despite the fact that it is not widely regarded as a safe-haven, or a hedge to inflation risks. (Reporting and editing by Edmund Klamann, Muralikumar Aantharaman, and Wayne Cole)
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LME Aluminium nears peak in four years after Iran attacks on Gulf Smelters
Prices of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange rose 6% on Monday to close in on a four-year high after the two largest producers of the metal in the Middle East sustained damage over the weekend from Iranian attacks. Benchmark LME 3-month aluminium prices rose to $3.492 per metric tonne, the highest level since March 19 at the beginning of trading, as Gulf smelters Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain assessed damage to their facilities. If the price of gold breaks above $3,546.50 on March 12, it will open the door to peaks not seen since the height of the Covid period in 2022. Aluminium Bahrain, which operates one of the largest smelters in the world, said on Sunday that it was evaluating the damage after Iranian attacks on the facility. The state-controlled company Aluminium Bahrain said that two employees were injured in the attack on Saturday. Meanwhile, Emirates Global Aluminium, a regional competitor, suffered significant damage due to missile and drone strikes. Since the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran began, most Gulf aluminium producers - which account for about 9 percent of global supply - have been unable?to ship to world markets via their usual?channels due to Tehran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. EGA is Middle East's biggest producer of metal, and Alba operates world's largest single-site smelter. South32 and Rio Tinto, both listed in Australia, also saw their shares rise. South32 was up nearly 7 percent while Rio Tinto rose more than 2 percent. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Jonathan Oatis and Melanie Burton)
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The fugitive accused of killing 2 Australian police officers is shot dead
Australian media reported on Monday that police shot and killed a fugitive gunman, who was on the run since August for allegedly killing two officers in 'Victoria. Dezi Filby (formerly known as Desmond Filby) was on the run from police since a shooting in a rural area that injured a third cop. Authorities offered a reward of A$1,000,000 ($684,700), if they could help capture him. Freeman is accused of opening fire on 10 police officers, including members of the Sexual Offences and Child Investigation Team, who were executing a search warrant at a property near Porepunkah (about 300 km from Melbourne). Freeman, who was said to possess expert bushcraft and multiple powerful guns, fled into the bushland of Mount Buffalo National Park. Local media described him as a "sovereign citizen" who views the government as unlegitimate. Australian Broadcasting Corp reports that the 56-year old man was shot around 8:30 a.m. on Monday (2130 GMT Sunday). Victoria Police?stated in a press release that they fatally shot a man at a property in northeast Victoria, during an operation to find Freeman. However, the police did not identify this man. The statement stated that "no police officers were injured in the incident", and added that more details would be released on Monday.
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Brent crude oil sets a record monthly increase
Stock futures in Asia fell on Monday, as investors hunkered down for an extended 'Gulf Conflict' that has already sent oil prices to a monthly record rise. This will lead to a spike in the price of oil and a risk of recession in many parts of the world. Pakistan announced on Sunday that it is preparing to hold "meaningful discussions" in the coming days to end the 'conflict' over Iran, despite Tehran accusing Washington of planning a land attack as the U.S. Military sends more troops into the region. Yemen's Houthis, who are also aligned with Iran, launched their first attack on Israel since the beginning of the conflict. Madison Cartwright is a senior geo-economic analyst at CBA. She said that Iran's ability to control the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt global energy markets and food markets as well as its continued missile and drone capability give it little reason to compromise, forcing the U.S. escalate. "We expect that the war will last at least until June. The risk is that it could be a much longer conflict." Prices for fuel, oil, gas and fertiliser have risen as a result of the clampdown in the Strait. Prices for food, pharmaceuticals, and petrochemicals are expected to increase. This is bad news for Asia as much of that region is heavily dependent on Middle East energy. Futures for Japan's Nikkei index were trading lower at 50,870. This indicates a sharp fall from the close on Friday of 53,373. S&P futures dropped another 0.6% while Nasdaq Futures fell by 0.7%. Brent crude rose by 2.4% to $115.33 per barrel, topping the 59% gain that Iraq made after its invasion of Kuwait in 1990. U.S. crude rose 3.0% to $102.52 for a rise of 53% in a month. Bruce Kasman warns that the longer the Strait is closed, the more dramatic the drawdown of buffer supplies, which could lead to dramatic increases in crude oil, natural gases and other commodities. The scenario of the Strait remaining closed for another month is consistent with rising oil prices towards $150/bbl, and restrictions on energy consumption by industrial consumers. As payrolls loom, the FED is in focus. Investors have revised up their interest rate forecasts almost everywhere due to the inflationary threat. The Federal Reserve is expected to tighten interest rates by 12 basis points this year. This compares with 50 basis point cuts made a month ago. John Williams, the influential leader of the New York Fed and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, will also be speaking at an event on Monday. This week, data on U.S. manufacturing, retail sales and payrolls will give a?update on the state of the economy. After February's shocking 92,000-job drop, jobs are expected to rise by 55,000 in the month of March. Unemployment is still at 4.4%. The European Union is expected to release figures on Tuesday that show an annual inflation rate of 2.7%, up from 1.9% in March. Core prices, however, are expected to be stable. Bond markets have been impacted by the coming energy shock and pressures on fiscal budgets due to higher borrowing costs. The yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds is up 47 basis points for the month at 4.428%. Two-year yields are also up 54 basis points. The increased volatility of the markets has helped the U.S. Dollar as the most liquid currency in the world. The United States also has a comparative advantage over Europe and Asia as a 'net energy exporter. The dollar traded a little firmer on Monday morning at 160.42yen. Last week, the currency had crossed the 160 barrier again for the first since July 2024. The euro was at $1.1492, just a little above the low of March $1.1409. Gold was unchanged at $4,487 per ounce on commodity markets. It has received little support either as a safe-haven or a hedge against inflation risk. (Reporting and editing by Edmund Klamann; Reporting by Wayne Cole)
India's November wholesale inflation slows to 1.89% y/y
India's wholesale inflation slowed in November to 1.89% yearonyear, easing from the previous month, due to a smaller increase in food costs, government information showed on Monday.
The wholesale inflation rate, a proxy for producer costs, last month came in lower than the 2.2% projection by economists in a Reuters poll, and below a four-month high of 2.36% in October.
Food rates increased 8.92% in November, compared to an 11.6%. increase in October, with vegetable rates climbing up 28.57%. year-on-year, down dramatically from a 63% dive in the previous. month. Meanwhile, cereal rates increased 7.81% in 2015 versus a. 7.9% rise a month earlier.
Costs of manufactured items, which represent about 64%. of the wholesale rate index, increased 2% from a 1.5% dive in. the previous month.
Fuel and power rates in India dropped 5.83% year-on-year,. compared to a 5.8% decrease in October.
Heading retail inflation, the essential target for the. Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy choices, reduced to. 5.48% in November, down from 6.21% in the prior month.
The softer retail inflation rate, integrated with a sharp. downturn in the GDP growth to a seven-quarter low in. July-September, has actually lifted expectations of a rate cut by the. reserve bank at its February meeting, which will be chaired by. brand-new RBI guv Sanjay Malhotra.
Previously this month, the RBI left its rate of interest. the same but lowered the cash reserve ratio requirements for. banks to reduce monetary conditions and support economic growth.
(source: Reuters)