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Brent crude sets record monthly increase after stocks plunge in Asia
Investors in Asia lowered their expectations for the Gulf conflict, which is already causing oil prices to rise at a record rate. This will lead to a surge in inflation and an increase in recession risk for much of the world. According to the 'Financial Times', Donald Trump said that the U.S. might'seize the?Kharg Island, in the Persian Gulf from where Iran exports most of its oil. But he also suggested that a ceasefire would be imminent. Pakistan has said that it is preparing "meaningful discussions" in the coming days to end the conflict with Iran, despite Tehran's earlier accusation of Washington preparing an assault on the land as the U.S. military sent more troops into the region. Yemen's Houthis, who are also Iran-aligned, launched their first attack on Israel since the beginning of the conflict. Madison Cartwright is a senior geo-economic analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. She said that Iran's ability to control the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt global energy, food, and agricultural markets as well as its missile and drone capabilities are not enough to encourage it to give in, forcing the U.S. into escalation. We expect the conflict to last at least until June. The risk is that it could be a much longer one. Prices for fuel, oil, gas and fertiliser have risen as a result of the clampdown in the Strait, along with prices for plastics, aluminium, and planes. Food, pharmaceuticals and other petrochemical products will all see their prices rise. This is a bad thing for Asia as a large part of the region relies heavily on Middle Eastern energy. Japan's Nikkei lost another 4.7% bringing March losses to almost 14%. South Korea's stock market dropped 4.2% while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan fell 1.2%. S&P futures dropped 0.9%, while Nasdaq's futures declined 0.7%. EUROSTOXX Futures, DAX Futures, and FTSE Futures all fell 1.5% in Europe. Brent crude climbed 3.0% to $115.98 per barrel, topping the gains made by Iraq after its invasion of Kuwait in 1990. U.S. crude rose 3.0% to $102.52, a rise of 53% for the month. Bruce Kasman warned that the longer the Strait remains shut, the more the buffer supply will be reduced, which could lead to dramatic increases in crude oil, gas, and other commodities. The scenario of the Strait remaining closed for another month is consistent with rising oil prices towards $150/bbl, and constraints on energy consumption by industrial consumers. As payrolls loom, the FED is in focus. Investors have revised up their expectations for interest rates in almost all countries due to the inflationary threat. The markets now expect the Federal Reserve to tighten interest rates by 12 basis points this year compared to 50 basis points a month earlier. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at a later event on Monday. John Williams, the influential head of New York Fed will also be speaking. This week, data on U.S. manufacturing, retail sales and payrolls will give an update on the?state of the economy. After February's shocking 92,000-job drop, jobs are expected to rise by 55,000 in march, maintaining unemployment at 4.4%. The European Union is expected to release figures on Tuesday showing that annual inflation jumped to 2.7% from 1.9% in March, but core prices should remain stable. Energy shocks, coupled with increased borrowing costs, and the need to increase defence spending have slammed sovereign bond markets. The yields on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds are up 47 basis points this month, at 4.428%. Two-year yields also have increased 54 basis points. The U.S. Dollar has been favored by increased volatility on the markets as the most liquid currency in the world. The United States has a comparative advantage over Europe and much of Asia because it is also a net exporter of energy. The dollar held at 160.12yen after last week crossing the 160 barrier for first time since July 20,24, when Japan intervened last to support the currency. The euro was stuck around $1.15, just a little bit above the low of March at $1.1409. Gold was down by 1.0% on commodity markets at $4,445 per ounce, despite the fact that it is not widely regarded as a safe-haven, or a hedge to inflation risks. (Reporting and editing by Edmund Klamann, Muralikumar Aantharaman, and Wayne Cole)
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LME Aluminium nears peak in four years after Iran attacks on Gulf Smelters
Prices of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange rose 6% on Monday to close in on a four-year high after the two largest producers of the metal in the Middle East sustained damage over the weekend from Iranian attacks. Benchmark LME 3-month aluminium prices rose to $3.492 per metric tonne, the highest level since March 19 at the beginning of trading, as Gulf smelters Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain assessed damage to their facilities. If the price of gold breaks above $3,546.50 on March 12, it will open the door to peaks not seen since the height of the Covid period in 2022. Aluminium Bahrain, which operates one of the largest smelters in the world, said on Sunday that it was evaluating the damage after Iranian attacks on the facility. The state-controlled company Aluminium Bahrain said that two employees were injured in the attack on Saturday. Meanwhile, Emirates Global Aluminium, a regional competitor, suffered significant damage due to missile and drone strikes. Since the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran began, most Gulf aluminium producers - which account for about 9 percent of global supply - have been unable?to ship to world markets via their usual?channels due to Tehran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. EGA is Middle East's biggest producer of metal, and Alba operates world's largest single-site smelter. South32 and Rio Tinto, both listed in Australia, also saw their shares rise. South32 was up nearly 7 percent while Rio Tinto rose more than 2 percent. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Jonathan Oatis and Melanie Burton)
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The fugitive accused of killing 2 Australian police officers is shot dead
Australian media reported on Monday that police shot and killed a fugitive gunman, who was on the run since August for allegedly killing two officers in 'Victoria. Dezi Filby (formerly known as Desmond Filby) was on the run from police since a shooting in a rural area that injured a third cop. Authorities offered a reward of A$1,000,000 ($684,700), if they could help capture him. Freeman is accused of opening fire on 10 police officers, including members of the Sexual Offences and Child Investigation Team, who were executing a search warrant at a property near Porepunkah (about 300 km from Melbourne). Freeman, who was said to possess expert bushcraft and multiple powerful guns, fled into the bushland of Mount Buffalo National Park. Local media described him as a "sovereign citizen" who views the government as unlegitimate. Australian Broadcasting Corp reports that the 56-year old man was shot around 8:30 a.m. on Monday (2130 GMT Sunday). Victoria Police?stated in a press release that they fatally shot a man at a property in northeast Victoria, during an operation to find Freeman. However, the police did not identify this man. The statement stated that "no police officers were injured in the incident", and added that more details would be released on Monday.
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Brent crude oil sets a record monthly increase
Stock futures in Asia fell on Monday, as investors hunkered down for an extended 'Gulf Conflict' that has already sent oil prices to a monthly record rise. This will lead to a spike in the price of oil and a risk of recession in many parts of the world. Pakistan announced on Sunday that it is preparing to hold "meaningful discussions" in the coming days to end the 'conflict' over Iran, despite Tehran accusing Washington of planning a land attack as the U.S. Military sends more troops into the region. Yemen's Houthis, who are also aligned with Iran, launched their first attack on Israel since the beginning of the conflict. Madison Cartwright is a senior geo-economic analyst at CBA. She said that Iran's ability to control the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt global energy markets and food markets as well as its continued missile and drone capability give it little reason to compromise, forcing the U.S. escalate. "We expect that the war will last at least until June. The risk is that it could be a much longer conflict." Prices for fuel, oil, gas and fertiliser have risen as a result of the clampdown in the Strait. Prices for food, pharmaceuticals, and petrochemicals are expected to increase. This is bad news for Asia as much of that region is heavily dependent on Middle East energy. Futures for Japan's Nikkei index were trading lower at 50,870. This indicates a sharp fall from the close on Friday of 53,373. S&P futures dropped another 0.6% while Nasdaq Futures fell by 0.7%. Brent crude rose by 2.4% to $115.33 per barrel, topping the 59% gain that Iraq made after its invasion of Kuwait in 1990. U.S. crude rose 3.0% to $102.52 for a rise of 53% in a month. Bruce Kasman warns that the longer the Strait is closed, the more dramatic the drawdown of buffer supplies, which could lead to dramatic increases in crude oil, natural gases and other commodities. The scenario of the Strait remaining closed for another month is consistent with rising oil prices towards $150/bbl, and restrictions on energy consumption by industrial consumers. As payrolls loom, the FED is in focus. Investors have revised up their interest rate forecasts almost everywhere due to the inflationary threat. The Federal Reserve is expected to tighten interest rates by 12 basis points this year. This compares with 50 basis point cuts made a month ago. John Williams, the influential leader of the New York Fed and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, will also be speaking at an event on Monday. This week, data on U.S. manufacturing, retail sales and payrolls will give a?update on the state of the economy. After February's shocking 92,000-job drop, jobs are expected to rise by 55,000 in the month of March. Unemployment is still at 4.4%. The European Union is expected to release figures on Tuesday that show an annual inflation rate of 2.7%, up from 1.9% in March. Core prices, however, are expected to be stable. Bond markets have been impacted by the coming energy shock and pressures on fiscal budgets due to higher borrowing costs. The yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds is up 47 basis points for the month at 4.428%. Two-year yields are also up 54 basis points. The increased volatility of the markets has helped the U.S. Dollar as the most liquid currency in the world. The United States also has a comparative advantage over Europe and Asia as a 'net energy exporter. The dollar traded a little firmer on Monday morning at 160.42yen. Last week, the currency had crossed the 160 barrier again for the first since July 2024. The euro was at $1.1492, just a little above the low of March $1.1409. Gold was unchanged at $4,487 per ounce on commodity markets. It has received little support either as a safe-haven or a hedge against inflation risk. (Reporting and editing by Edmund Klamann; Reporting by Wayne Cole)
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Taganrog, southern Russia: Ukrainian drones damage homes and industry, kill one.
Local officials reported that a?Ukrainian 'drone attack' killed one person and damaged homes and industry in Taganrog on Sunday. Regional governor stated that falling drone debris caused the evacuation of a region hit by falling debris. Governor Yuri 'Slyusar of Rostov Region, on the eastern border of Ukraine, Yuri Telegram, said that emergency crews were working on the site where debris had fallen. "Fires have broken out and there has been damage." "People have been evacuated." In a post made on Telegram, Taganrog mayor Svetlana Kambulova spoke of "widespread damages in the city". She said that emergency crews responded 49 calls. Eight people were hurt. She wrote: "Several residential houses, industrial sites, and social sites were damaged due to falling?drone debris." Air-defence units are still in operation. Taganrog, a port city at the eastern end of the Sea of Azov and east of the Ukrainian border is the largest port in Russia. (Reporting and editing by Jonathan Oatis).
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New York Times: US allows Russian oil tanker to enter Cuba
New York Times, Sunday, reported that the United States is allowing a Russian oil tanker to arrive in Cuba. This would be an easing of the de facto oil blockade Washington has placed on Cuba. Washington has effectively stopped all oil shipments to Cuba to exert pressure on the government in Havana. The U.S. temporarily lifted sanctions on Russia in order to improve the flow of crude oil which has been restricted by the U.S. military strikes against Iran and Israeli strikes. The Times report said that it was unclear as to why the Trump Administration allowed the shipment through. LSEG ship monitoring data also?showed that the U.S. sanctioned Anatoly Koodkin was on his way to Cuba. The tanker left Russia's Primorsk Port with approximately 650,000 barrels, although the New York Times reported that it had 730,000 barrels. This amount of oil could provide a significant relief for Cuba. According to President Miguel Diaz Canel, the island nation has not received oil imports in three months. This has led to a strict rationing of gas and an intensified energy crisis.
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Police: Three killed in Russian attack in Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine
Police said that a Russian attack on the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk, which was one of many attacks in frontline zones, killed three people and injured 13. The Ukrainian national police confirmed that a 13-year-old boy was among the dead. According to a statement, Russian forces used glide-bombs in the attack on Kramatorsk. This has been a frequent target during the four-year war between Kyiv and Moscow. Two hours after the first attack, Kramatorsk was again attacked. Other cities hit in Russian ?attacks included the nearby town of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka and the city ?of Sloviansk, farther north. The "fortress belt", which includes Kramatorsk,?Sloviansk and other heavily-defended cities, is seen as a key target in Russia's?slow westward advance to capture the?Donetsk Region. Could not independently verify battle accounts. Reporting by Ron Popeski, editing by Jonathan Oatis
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ADAMA chemical plant in southern Israel struck by Iranian missiles or debris
ADAMA, which makes active ingredients and crop protection materials, reported that its Makhteshim facility in southern Israel was 'hit either by an Iranian rocket or debris from an intercepted missile on Sunday. No injuries were reported. ADAMA, a part of the Chinese-owned Syngenta Group said that the extent of damage to the plant is not known at this time. Israel's Fire and Rescue Service said that a fire started in a southern Israel industrial area that contains several chemical manufacturing plants and?industrial facilities following an Iranian missile strike, probably debris from a rocket that was intercepted. The fire brigade of 34 crews was working to put out the blaze. They urged people to avoid the industrial area Ne'ot Hovav due to the "hazardous material" that is present. The fire department said that there is no danger to the public beyond 800 meters of the industrial area. Residents in the area are asked to stay indoors and close all windows and ventilation holes. They should also follow instructions from security and emergency services until the incident has been fully controlled. Fire and Rescue Service released video and images of the scene. The fire was a large ball and there was heavy black smoke. The Israeli military had earlier claimed that it detected missiles fired from Iran. The Israeli military?fired multiple waves at Israel on Sunday. However, there were no immediate reports of injuries or damage until the fire broke out in the south. Ne'ot Hovav, located in southern Israel, is about 8 miles (13 km) away from Beer Sheva. In the vicinity, there are a number of Israeli military bases. The'southern cities' of Arad and Dimona were hit by Iranian missiles last weekend, injuring dozens. This was one of the most serious attacks on Israeli soil of the U.S./Israeli war against Iran.
Media reports that the manhunt for a fugitive accused of killing 2 Australian police officers has ended with the death of the suspect.
Australian police killed a gunman who had been on the lam for seven months, after allegedly killing two police officers in a remote area of Victoria state.
The reports stated that Dezi Filby, a 56-year-old man, formerly known as Desmond Freeman, was shot dead at around 8:30 am on Monday (2130 GMT Sunday) after a three-hour confrontation at a rural property located in northeast Victoria.
Victoria Police Chief commissioner Mike?Bush refused to confirm the identity of a person who was shot by police until official identification had been made, but said that the shooting was justified.
Bush told reporters at a press briefing that "everything I know tells me right now that this shooting was justified". He added that no officers were hurt during the incident.
We're trying to determine the consequences of this. "We strongly believe - yet to be verified - that he was armed."
Over 450 officers were involved in the hunt for Freeman, since August. He allegedly opened up on a group of 10 officers when they arrived to carry out a search warrant at a Porepunkah property, located about 300 km (186 miles northeast of Melbourne).
The authorities offered a reward of A$1,000,000 ($684,700), if they could lead to his capture.
Freeman, who is believed to be an expert in bushcraft and possess multiple powerful guns, fled into bushland at Mount Buffalo National Park after the shooting. Local media has described him as "a sovereign citizen", which is a term that's used for individuals who view the government as unlegitimate.
The Age newspaper reported that Freeman had been found dead and shot by police on a large rural estate in Victoria's remote Walwa area, approximately 180 km (112 miles) northeast of Porepunkah.
The report stated that satellite imagery showed the property to be studded with several buildings, two shipping container, a caravan, and several abandoned vehicles.
(source: Reuters)