Latest News

INDIA BONDS - India 10-year yield registers largest weekly increase since RBI's surprise rise in May 2022

The Indian government bond market plunged Friday, ending a week-long loss, as New Delhi’s fuel excise tax?cut clouded fiscal outlook and intensified oil-driven anxieties. This also drove the yield on the 10-year note to its largest weekly increase in almost four years.

The benchmark 6.48% bond yield for 2035 ended the session at 6.9419%. This is the highest 10-year bond yield since July 25, 2024. It closed at 6.8750% the previous day. Bond yields are inversely related to bond prices.

The yield increased by 20 basis points for the week. This is the largest move since the week ending?May 6,2022 when the central banks began its aggressive rate-hiking cycle with an unexpected?rate hike in between scheduled policy meeting.

New Delhi has reduced its special excise duties on petrol and diesel as the Middle East conflict continues to choke supplies, causing fuel prices to remain volatile.

An official from the government said that the move will cost the government $739.33 million per fortnight. Analysts estimate the fiscal impact to be between 1.5 trillion and 1.75 trillion rupees in fiscal year 2027.

The Brent crude oil price is hovering around $110 a barrel after briefly falling below $100 earlier this week.

The rising oil price is bad for India. It's the third largest crude importer in the world. It could cause inflation to rise and increase India's deficit on its current account.

If oil continues to rise, the crude basket assumed in RBI's October policy of $70 per barrel would undergo a major revision. Alok Sharma, the head of treasury for?ICBC in Mumbai, said that higher crude oil prices will eventually affect inflation baskets.

States sold nearly one trillion rupees worth of debt during the past week due to waning investor demand.

India's overnight swap rates (OIS) saw a large reversal in recent received positions. The key swap rates rose to multi-year heights.

The?two-year OIS closed at 6.2750%, while the one-year OIS ended at 6.04%. The liquid five-year swap rate ended at 6.6350%.

The one-year swap rate has risen by 56 basis points this month. Meanwhile, the two-year OIS rate and the five-year OIS rate have risen by 69 and 65 basis points respectively. $1 = 94.6800 Indian Rupees (Reporting and editing by Rashmi Dhutia, Sonia Cheema, Ronojojo Mazumdar).

(source: Reuters)