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Engie's first-quarter results are in line with expectations
The French utility Engie reported on Thursday that its first-quarter earnings had dropped after the?warmer temperatures?had lowered domestic gas sales and deliveries. The company's earnings before interest, tax and nuclear were $4 billion, down 8.4% compared to a year ago. This was in line with the analyst consensus estimate of 3.4 billion Euros compiled by LSEG. The company stated that the decline in 'earnings was partly attributable to their energy management business which supplies gas and power to both retail customers as well as business clients. Operating profit at this business was down 12.2% to?1.14billion euros. Data from the company showed that its renewable and flexible power division also saw a sharp decline in operating profits. The warmer weather contributed to this?16.1% drop to just a little under 1 billion euros. Engie confirmed this week a report that onshore wind development in the United States had slowed. However, it said that solar and battery development continued. Some permits are being revoked. "It's obvious that obtaining the required authorisations is in fact difficult," Engie Finance Chief Pierre-Francois Riolacci said to reporters. Even when permits are not required on federal land, we face difficulties getting approval from agencies. Riolacci said that the company continues to target the Middle East for its renewable energy development. He said that the conflict had not caused any disruptions to its gas customers.
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Gold gains on third day of optimism about US-Iran peace agreement
Gold prices rose on Thursday for a third straight session, supported by a weaker dollar. Hopes of an agreement between the U.S. and Iran eased fears over inflation. As of 0615 GMT spot gold was up by 0.4% to $4,707.52 an ounce. It had risen about 3% Wednesday, reaching its highest level since April 27. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery?rose by 0.5% to $4 716. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, predicted that the war between the U.S. and Iran would end quickly as Tehran considered an American peace proposal. According to sources this proposal would end the conflict formally while leaving key issues unresolved. The U.S. demands that Iran cease its nuclear program and reopen Strait of Hormuz. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that gold prices are rising today due to a "subdued" dollar and declining oil prices. The current ceasefire, though tentative, continues and there are growing hopes of a long-term, durable agreement between Washington, D.C., and Tehran. Gains are limited, but traders remain cautious about how fragile the pause is. Dollars hovered around a three-month low, which was hit during the previous session. This made bullion cheaper for holders of currencies other than dollars. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields have fallen by 0.6% this week. This has lowered the opportunity costs of gold. Brent crude oil has fallen by about 6% this week, as optimism grows about the possible end of the Middle East war. The rise in oil prices has pushed gold prices down by more than 10%. Increased crude oil prices can stoke the inflation and increase interest rates. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but high interest rates can weigh down on this non-yielding investment. Investors are now awaiting the'monthly U.S. Employment Report on Friday to see if the U.S. Economy remains'resilient enough for the Federal Reserve to maintain its monetary policy. Spot silver increased 1%, to $78.09 an ounce. Platinum was down 0.1%, at $2,059.60. Palladium rose 0.6%, to $1,546.24.
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Mike Dolan: If the war in Iran ends, the ROI-Trapdoor will creak for dollars.
The U.S. Dollar has fallen to its pre-conflict levels due to renewed optimism about a possible ending to the Iran War. If it weren't for the U.S.-focussed artificial-intelligence boom, the greenback might be a clear casualty of ?any peace deal. The dollar exchange rate was one of few prices that rose on the onset of war, aside from the oil price itself. This happened primarily 'by default. Other major economies in Europe and Asia were considered more vulnerable to the energy crisis than America, which is oil-rich. At the margins, Gulf States and other countries seeking dollar liquid assets also played a role. The move was mostly a relative performance play. The gains were modest. In the first month of the war, the DXY Index against the currencies most traded rose by as much as 3 percent. It has now given it all back. The dollar's strength has been eroded by a tentative de-escalation, and a fragile ceasefire. The greenback's strength has been weakened by a hesitant de-escalation and a shaky ceasefire. The question of whether a trapdoor will open under the dollar if war ends and Strait?of Hormuz reopens has become a key issue for the global markets. In order to figure out what's going on, there are three main concerns. First, how quickly a normalization of oil prices would bring back Federal Reserve easing to the interest rate futures stripe while eliminating summer tightening biases in Europe and Asia. The relative rate shift is arguably cancelled out by the fact that the oil and war spikes have taken two Fed rate cuts from the horizon for this year. The twin threats of energy and rates have cast a dark shadow on European growth. However, the euro would be better off if they were removed together. It's a question as to how quickly inflation and expectations can be reduced to return central banks to their pre-war levels. Kevin Warsh, Donald Trump's nominee to the Fed Chair, may bring back U.S. ease-up talk as he takes over the hot seat. The U.S. stock exchange, economy, and labor market are not conducive to rate cuts. Warsh is likely to face stiff opposition from regional Fed bosses. The hawks in Europe have been winning the battle of the last few weeks, but the economies are still weaker and will be arguing against rate increases if the oil prices already start to fall. Sell Dollars in May? Second, the Beijing summit between Trump's and China's president Xi Jinping in this month - postponed due to the war – and whether or not it will revive pressure for a stronger?yuan and ease another friction point on a list of trade disputes that is already fraught. The dollar reached its lowest level in over three years against the offshore currency renminbi as the latest attempt to reach a peace agreement in Iran played out on Wednesday. The dollar has fallen over 2% this year against the yuan, compared to a DXY loss of only 0.2%. If Trump's presumption of a bias towards a weaker currency is to have any effect, it seems that the yuan channel will be the best vehicle. The third factor is often overlooked by the bears of the dollar: the Wall Street recovery, which has been fueled by the sharply improved U.S. profits forecasts, as well as the soaring AI investment spending. If capital flows are as important to the dollar's performance as interest rate gaps or trade, then switching back to U.S. stocks can be a powerful boost. The profit-growth predictions for S&P500 companies for 2026 are now as high as 23%, up from 15% at the start of the war. The Euro Zone Stoxx equivalents also rose, but only by three percentage points. This leaves 2026 profit growth estimates 10 points behind S&P 500. The forward price/earnings ratios of U.S. stock prices remain higher than those in Europe or historical averages. However, a new price surge and momentum can cover this as they have done for many years. A dollar trapdoor may well exist. It appears that the drop below it is shallower than first thought. The opinions expressed are those of Mike Dolan a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Lanxess reports muted earnings but expects a better second quarter
Lanxess reported on Thursday a'muted' quarterly core profit, which was? broadly?in line with the market expectations. However, it said that March saw a slight improvement as customers began to turn to European chemical manufacturers to avoid any supply risks. The German specialty chemicals company stated that "a persistently weak economy, geopolitical uncertainty and last year's divestments" characterized the first quarter of 2026. It said that cheaper raw materials and pressure from?Asia on prices in certain segments also drove down selling prices. Since March, we've seen a slight improvement in the momentum. Due to the Middle East conflict, many Asian competitors' supply chains have been disrupted. This has caused customers to return to European suppliers like Lanxess. The war has?roiled the global markets and driven oil prices up, while re-igniting fears over global inflation and economic growth. Lanxess announced?earnings?before?interest, taxes depreciation, and amortisation, (EBITDA), pre-exceptionals, of 94 millions euros ($110million) for the first quarter, a little above analysts' expectations of 92million?euros, according to a poll on Lanxess website. The Cologne-based firm said it was expecting a?improvement in the second quarter and aimed for EBITDA before exceptionals of between 130 million to 150 million euros. The company also announced its full-year forecast for 2026.
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Vigils planned across Australia for dead 5-year-old Indigenous girl
On Thursday, mourners will gather in Australia to hold vigils in memory of a five-year old Indigenous girl who was allegedly abducted and murdered. Her alleged murder shocked the country. The gatherings take place a week after authorities found the girl dead following a five day search that involved hundreds of volunteers as well as police. The death and disappearance of Kumanjayi Baby, the name given to her by Indigenous customs, has dominated headlines across the country. After the arrest of a suspect suspected of abducting and murdering the woman, violent clashes broke out in Alice Springs. 400 Indigenous people gathered to demand "payback," which is a traditional punishment that is mostly physical in Aboriginal societies. Since then, the?Alice Springs Community has been conducting "sorry-business," a period of mourning and cultural practices after a death. A vigil will be held by the girl's family in the Outback on Thursday night. Others?will also be held throughout the country to remember the girl. The organisers of the Vigil have asked participants to bring candles and wear pink, as it is the favourite colour of the girl. Kumanjayi 'Little Baby' disappeared from her home in the suburbs of Alice Springs, on the evening April 25. The search for her involved hundreds of people, who combed the dense bushland surrounding the town. It is a popular tourist destination in Australia's northern territory. Jefferson Lewis, 47, was charged with murdering her and two other crimes, which are not public for legal reasons. Reporting by Christine Chen, Sydney; Editing and proofreading by Thomas Derpinghaus
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Russell: Exports of refined fuels from Asia to the US plummet after the closure of Hormuz
The impact of the 'crisis' on the physical fuel markets has worsened. Prices for crude oil futures fluctuated in line with headlines about the conflict between the United States, and Iran. Brent contracts fell 7.8% to close at $101.27 per barrel on Wednesday, despite the fact that a sustained and full reopening of the 'Strait of Hormuz is still a long time away. The United States and Israel's February 28th attack on Iran has led to a reduction in the volume of refined products shipped throughout Asia. The Strait of Hormuz is the main energy-consuming region in the world and the destination of about 80% of the pre-war cargoes. In April, the combined export volume of these three fuel types was about 3 million barrels a day (bpd), below the average in the three months before the start the conflict. According to commodity analysts Kpler, jet fuel is the part of the barrel that has been most affected. Asia's fuel exports fell to 596,000 BPD in April from 1.54 Million BPD in the three-month period prior to the beginning of the war. The Kpler data for April was the lowest since 2017. It shows that flow levels are about one-third lower than pre-conflict. Most of Asia's jet fuel exports are destined for other Asian countries who import it, while smaller quantities go to Africa, Europe, and North America. India's jet fuel exports fell to 48,600 barrels per day (bpd) in April, from 141,000 bpd before the war, and China's to 135,000 from 308,000 bpd. According to Kpler, the United Arab Emirates shipped zero jet fuel during the month of April, compared to an average of 106,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the three months preceding the war. Singapore assessment prices reflect the shortage of jet fuel cargoes. The price of oil ended at $158.91 per barrel on Wednesday. This is up 70% from its close on February 27th, the day before Israel and the U.S. launched their aerial attack against Iran. SUPPLY SQUEEZE The price of gasoil, the building block for diesel, ended at $141.30 per barrel on Wednesday. This is up by 55% compared to the level before the war. Kpler reports that Asia's transport fuel exports dropped to a 9-year low in April of 2,22 million bpd, down from a 3.54 million average in the three month period before the start the the?Iran War. Exports from Japan fell to 32,600 BPD in April, from 148,600 BPD before the conflict. South Korea's dropped from 507,000 to?451,000 BPD, India's to 371,000 from 494,000, and China's to 22,000 from 126 300. The same is true for gasoline. Asia's exports fell to 1,59 million bpd from an average of 2,28 million bpd during the three months before the Iran War. South Korea's shipments fell to 181,300 bpd. This is down from the pre-war level of 377,000. China's shipments dropped to 47,000 from 116,000. Data shows how quickly refiners in Asia are struggling to secure enough crude oil to keep refineries running. As commercial and strategic stocks are depleted, the longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed to most vessels the greater the likelihood that crude shortages will be in Asia. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Markets focus on US-Iran Peace Deal as Gold prices remain steady
Gold prices remained largely stable?near an all-time high on Thursday as?investors were waiting for more details about a possible U.S. Iran peace deal. As of 0436 GMT spot gold was up by 0.1%, at $4,692.45 an ounce. It had risen about 3% Wednesday, to its highest level since April 27. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery rose by 0.2% to $4701. Donald Trump, the U.S. President, predicted that the war between Iran and the U.S. would end quickly as Tehran considered an?U.S. Sources said that the peace proposal would end the war, but leave unresolved the key U.S. demand?that Iran cease its nuclear programme and open the Strait of Hormuz. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that while a weaker dollar and lower oil prices provide some tailwinds to the yellow metal, it continues to be hampered by high real rates. Any meaningful peace agreement between the US, Iran and other countries would act as a tailwind to gold. Dollar hovered around a three-month low, which was hit the previous session. This made bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury has eased by 0.6% this week. This lowers the opportunity cost for holding gold. Brent crude oil is?down 6% this week, as optimism grows about the?possible ending of?the Middle East war. Since the beginning of the war in late February, gold prices have dropped by more than 10%. Increased crude oil prices can cause inflation and increase the probability of higher interest rates. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but high interest rates can weigh down on this non-yielding investment. Investors are now awaiting the monthly U.S. Employment Report?on Friday in order to determine if the U.S. economy is resilient enough to allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its monetary policy. Spot silver increased 0.3% at $77.52 an ounce. Platinum was down 0.4% to $2,054.95. Palladium rose 0.1% to $1.538.22.
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No stopping AI frenzy across Asia
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets Japan's Nikkei returned after a holiday to join the AI rally and reach record highs. South Korea, Taiwan and other equities also reached new heights. Oil prices hovered around $100 per barrel, as the markets waited for an agreement to end the Middle East conflict. The Nikkei Index 225 (the benchmark) soared by nearly 6%. This lifted broader Asian gauges up to new highs, after strong earnings from tech companies fueled the AI momentum. The Nikkei has now risen 25% this year, but is still behind the eye-watering 75% increase in Seoul's KOSPI by 2026. This was also the best performing major stock market last year. Taiwan stocks are up 45% in 2018. The S&P 500, on the other hand, is up almost 8% in 2026. Asia has been the main area of AI growth this year. Samsung Electronics has joined Taiwan's TSMC in the trillion-dollar club. SK Hynix?is not far away. The yen held steady at 156.35 U.S. dollars in Asian hours, but traders watched their screens as sudden spikes in the last few sessions fueled speculation that Japanese authorities were intervening. Sources said that Tokyo intervened on Thursday of last week. According to?money-market data, they sold around $35 billion in order to support the yen. The market has experienced three sudden spikes since then. On Wednesday, it reached a 10-week-high of 155 per U.S. Dollar. Japan's top currency diplomat told reporters on Thursday that there are no restrictions on the frequency of its currency market interventions. It is also in constant contact with U.S. authorities. Data later in the day may shed light on Tokyo's involvement. Sources say that Tehran is considering the U.S. proposal for peace in the Middle East. The plan would end the conflict, but leave unresolved U.S. key demands that Iran suspends its nuclear program and that?the Strait of Hormuz be reopened. Since the outbreak of the war at the end February, the?critical waterway is effectively at a standstill. This has sent oil prices soaring and fueled inflation fears. While the latest news about a possible deal for peace weighed on the oil price, it remains?at around $100 per barrel, which is well above the level before the war began. As?risk sentiment improved, the dollar also fell. Global bond investors are watching the local elections in Britain on Thursday, as they fear that a poor performance by the ruling Labour Party may lead to a leadership challenge unwelcome and may renew concerns over fiscal slippage. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. Economic events: April PMI for Germany, France and UK
Panama presidential competitors downplay collecting financial clouds
With Panama's. businessfriendly reputation bruised by a recent transfer to close a. copper mine accounting for 5% of GDP, the nation's next. president will face abnormally hard choices in attempting to get its. economy back on an even keel.
But while economists and even some politicians are advising. the May 5 election's victor toward out of favor measures to improve. diminished coffers - consisting of a distressed state pension system -. the 5 frontrunners are squarely focused on the costs side. of the journal.
It is progressively common in campaigns worldwide to see. prospects prevent touching on financial problems. Nobody wants to talk. about taxes or spending, considering that the electorate doesn't wish to. hear those messages, Citi analyst Ernesto Revilla informed .
Financiers holding over $33 billion in Panamanian bonds are. watching the situation carefully as are companies that have. gathered to the nation recently, tempted by its relatively. low taxes and laissez faire economic policies.
Fitch scores recently reduced Panama's debt to. speculative grade, mentioning financial and governance pressures. aggravated by the move to close First Quantum Minerals'. huge copper mine following nationwide protests.
If S&P or Moody's does the same, Panama would become a. so-called fallen angel, potentially sending its loaning costs. soaring as some funds would need to discharge its financial obligation. Both. agencies told they will keep an eye on the next federal government's. primary steps and investor confidence before acting.
Panama requires to trek profits considering that tax consumption has just. risen usually about 1.5% annually in the previous years, even as. GDP development has balanced 6% in small terms, said Todd Martinez,. Fitch Rankings Americas sovereigns co-head.
Fitch pegs the nation's 2024 financial deficit at 4.7% of GDP,. up from 2.95% last year when it was bolstered by some one-off. gains.
One apparently simple source of $375 million in yearly income. was lost last year after the copper mine's agreement was. shuttered following widespread demonstrations.
The Panama Canal's contribution to state coffers, on the other hand,. is anticipated to fall 2.9% this year, primarily due to reduced. traffic and capital reserves for future tasks, according to a. statement by its administration.
S&P's associate director Karla Gonzalez told the. company recently integrated the canal's drought as a drawback. threat.
Among the five frontrunners to replace outgoing President. Laurentino Cortizo, 3 have argued that the nation can. tackle its budget shortage without treking taxes. Another 2. have actually avoided the subject altogether.
We are not raising Panamanians' taxes, governmental. candidate Romulo Roux, ranked 2nd in most surveys, told. .
Roux said he would work to lure private financial investment for. projects that he said would create 500,000 tasks, and pledged to. make tax collection more efficient and cut spending in areas. such as the nationwide assembly's budget.
Ricardo Lombana, a former diplomat installing his second. governmental campaign who has actually swung in between second and fifth in. most current surveys, told he would trek incomes by dealing with. corruption and cutting unnecessary expenses, while dismissing. any tax walkings.
Many experts say prospects are failing to come clean on. required deficit-cutting steps, while acknowledging that it. would be political suicide to discuss them so near to the vote.
Previous economy and finance minister Frank De Lima says. Panama has overlooked the sectors that used to shine prior to. First Quantum's arrival, making the course to healing tougher.
Others state the country's problems are primarily surmountable. and that financiers who have actually sold off its bonds because Fitch's. downgrade might have over responded.
The Central American nation's total debt stands at $49.8. billion, amounting to over 50% of its GDP.
Previous president and prospect Martin Torrijos, who holds. the 3rd put on the race according to a lot of surveys, told. his administration slashed financial obligation to 40% of GPD from 70%. by handling state resources with austerity, which he prepares to do. once again, without offering information on which expenses he would cut. in his brand-new term if chosen.
As for the country's state pension fund, which is running. perilously low on reserves, all five front-runners have. recognized a need to restore it. Still, none has openly. suggested raising the retirement age or obligatory contributions.
Roux and Lombana said advantage decreases and raising the. retirement age were measures off the table, while Torrijos vowed. for a nationwide dialogue to decide how to salvage the system.
WHAT WOULD PROSPECTS DO?
If information are sparse on potential austerity measures, the. projects are more forthcoming about huge spending plans.
Mulino, standing in for founded guilty former president Ricardo. Martinelli, has actually vowed to present the biggest roadway. rehab strategy in history and develop healthcare facilities and a new. railway.
He is the favorite to win the upcoming election according to. most surveys. His campaign did not make him offered for comment.
Torrijos aims to spend $19 billion on 40 various jobs. including a brand-new city line and water reservoirs for the canal.
Others would target their costs at tasks from tourist. promotion to port facilities and prisons.
Panama does not require a Milei walking with a chainsaw on the. streets, however it does need a firm leader, former deputy economy. minister Domingo Latorraca informed , referring to. Argentina's austerity-minded President Javier Milei.
However the next federal government will require to clearly explain its. plans to recover from the dreadful one-off of the mine closure. relocate to ranking firms, shareholders and financiers.
So far, there are few indications of that happening.
(source: Reuters)