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Indian benchmarks gain monthly on hopes of a trade deal, but Pakistan tensions weigh
Indian benchmarks closed at the same level on Wednesday, but ended a solid month. Both the Nifty and Sensex posted monthly gains due to expectations of a U.S. India trade deal and new foreign inflows. The BSE Sensex fell 0.06% on Wednesday to 80,242.24 and the Nifty 50 lost 0.01% at 22,334.2. The Nifty and Sensex both gained 3.5% in April. HDFC Bank has slowed down its daily moves as it offsets the pressure of tensions with Pakistan. The banks and financial sector led the monthly gains, supported by stable earnings and foreign inflows. The IT index dropped 3% in April. This is its fourth consecutive month of declines - the longest losing streak it has had since October 2016. The optimism surrounding trade deals with the U.S. has fueled the FPIs to invest $4.4 billion into Indian stocks over the past ten sessions. This is their largest buying spree in almost two years. Both countries' officials have hinted that a bilateral agreement could be reached as soon as this week or the following. Samrat Dasgupta is CEO of Esquire Capital Investment Advisors. He said that the markets rose in April due to the influx of money from the U.S. to emerging markets because of economic uncertainty. He warned, however, that the jitters about a possible escalation between India and Pakistan may keep markets volatile in the future. According to reports on Tuesday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave military chiefs the freedom to respond to the deadly militant attack that took place in Kashmir last week. Brokers cited a weak quarterly pre-provision and higher credit costs for the decline in Bajaj Finance, a non-bank lender. HDFC Bank rose by 0.9% and supported the benchmarks. The Indian stock markets will be closed on Thursday for a public holiday. Trading will resume Friday, May 2.
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Vedanta, an Indian miner, doubles its quarterly profit on lower taxes and higher commodity prices
Vedanta, an Indian conglomerate that converts metals into oil, reported a fourth-quarter profit more than doubling. This was boosted by lower taxes and higher prices for zinc and aluminium. The quarter saw a 154% increase in the miner's profit that was attributable by the owners to the company, to 34.83 Billion Rupees (around 412 Million Dollars). The company reported that its normalised tax rates dropped from 46% to 28% in the previous quarter. This was primarily due to changes in profit mix, and a decrease in the tax rate for a foreign subsidiary. According to data from brokerages, the overall revenue increased by 14%, reaching 397.89 billion rupies. This was largely due to higher prices of aluminium and zinc which rose by 19.6%, 17.5% and 19.6% respectively, during the quarter. Vedanta’s aluminium division is the largest in India, and accounts for about 40% of its revenue. Zinc, its second biggest business, is followed by copper. Copper prices rose 9.3% during the third quarter. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), which are the company's profits, rose by 30% to 116.18 bn rupees. The strong commodity prices, as well as cost-saving measures, have helped to increase the EBITDA margin from 30% to 35%. Vedanta subsidiary Hindustan Zinc announced a higher profit for the fourth quarter, but its finance chief warned of price volatility because of uncertainty over U.S. Tariffs. ($1 = 84.6170 Indian Rupees) (Reporting and editing by Savio d'Souza in Bengaluru)
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Gold continues to fall as dollar gains and trade tensions ease
The gold price fell on Wednesday for the second consecutive session, mainly due to a stronger dollar, and signs that tensions between the U.S. and China have de-escalated. Meanwhile, attention was focused on a number of economic reports from the U.S. scheduled this week. As of 1017 GMT, spot gold was down by 1.3%, at $3,274.10 per ounce. But bullion is on course to record its fourth consecutive month of gains, with a gain of nearly 5% in April. U.S. Gold Futures fell 1.5% to $3283.50. The market is experiencing high volatility due to the competition between two-way flows. Ross Norman, a independent analyst, said that it appears gold is entering a period of consolidation. The dollar index increased by 0.2% in comparison to its rivals. This makes bullion prices more expensive for holders of other currencies. In a recent note, Frank Watson, a market analyst with Kinesis Money said that gold prices were lower and more stable as the market took in what appeared to a de-escalation in the U.S. led trade war, which has shaken the financial markets over the past few weeks. Gold's unwillingness to fall much further can be interpreted as a sign of the continued volatility in the financial markets amid the uncertainty surrounding U.S. Trade Policies and their impact on the global economy. On Tuesday, U.S. president Donald Trump signed two orders to ease the impact of his auto tariffs. His trade team also announced its first agreement with a trading partner abroad. Bullion, which is a safe haven against financial and political turmoil, reached a record-high price of $3,500.05 an ounce last April 22, as investors sought to escape the global economic turmoil. Investors are likely to focus on a number of economic reports from the United States, such as the personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which will be released later today, and the non-farm employment report, due on Friday. These data could provide more insight into the Federal Reserve’s outlook for interest rates. Silver spot fell 2.1%, to $32.27 per ounce. Platinum dropped 1.1%, to $966.86, and palladium was down 0.6%, to $929.44.
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Copper drops over 2% and heads for the worst month since November
The copper price fell by over 2% Wednesday and is heading for its worst month since November, due to weak data coming from China's top metals consumer as well as lingering uncertainty in trade. London Metal Exchange benchmark copper fell 2.2% at 1045 GMT to $9,231 per metric ton, its lowest price since April 17. Prices dropped 5% in April. Comex copper contracts fell 4.3% to $4.63 a lb, the lowest since April 17. The data released on Wednesday shows that China's manufacturing activity declined at its fastest rate in 16 months, in April. This is a call for more stimulus. John Meyer, analyst at SP Angel, said that macroeconomic uncertainties are currently holding back copper. While Trump's tariffs could create a mini recession in the West we believe that new stimuli in China and Asia will continue keep manufacturers moving and drive growth. The lack of progress made in the de-escalation of the U.S./China trade dispute has weighed on financial markets. China denies any ongoing discussions, despite claims by U.S. officials. U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent stated on Tuesday that it would become apparent to Beijing over time that the Chinese tariffs were not sustainable. The data due on Wednesday will likely show that the U.S. economic growth slowed or even contracted during the first quarter. Dollar-priced materials are now more expensive for those who use other currencies. Another huge drop was in inventories due to the copper price floor. In warehouses monitored the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which fell 23.5% last Friday, to 89.307 tons. This is their lowest level since January 17. The price of the commodity fell 32 %.last week. Copper imports to the U.S. have been diverted due to tariff threats against U.S. imports and tight scrap supply. Meyer said that the shortage of scrap in China was a major problem. A huge copper concentrate deficit caused Chinese smelters reduce their capacity. Aluminium dropped 1%, to $2.442 per ton. Zinc fell 0.5%, to $2.635.5. Lead fell 0.7%, to $1.963.5. Tin rose 0.4%, to $32,015; and nickel increased 0.3%, to $15,595. All metals are headed towards monthly declines. (Reporting and editing by Sahal Muhammad in Bengaluru, Ashitha Shivaprasad from Bengaluru)
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South Korea's SK Innovation claims that refinery margins will improve following a surprise Q1 loss
SK Innovation Co Ltd, the owner of South Korea’s largest oil refiner SK Energy swung into an unexpected operating loss during the first quarter due to lower oil prices. However, the company forecasts a recovery in the refining margins for the second quarter. The company reported an operating loss for the third quarter ended March 31 of 45 billion won (32 million dollars), a sharp drop from the 625 billion won profits it recorded a year earlier. According to LSEG SmartEstimate, analysts had estimated a profit of 393 billion won. "Operating Income declined despite improving earnings from the Battery Business, due to lower international oil prices and refinery margins," SK Innovation stated in a press release. Operating profit for its refining operations decreased from the previous quarter, due to concerns about a global slowdown in the economy, an easing of OPEC+'s production cuts and increased output from Africa and the Middle East. The company expects that refining margins will improve in the second-quarter, backed by increased cooling demand as summer approaches and the beginning of the driving season. Battery subsidiary SK On has recorded a 299 billion won operating loss, down from a 332 billion won loss a year ago. SK Innovation stated that the battery business will see an increase in sales in North America starting in the second quarter and continue to grow throughout the year. The battery production output in the U.S. is also expected to improve significantly this year. SK On's competitor LG Energy Solution earlier said on Wednesday that it expects lower revenue for the second quarter ending in June, partly due to uncertainty caused by U.S. tariff policies. Analysts said that while SK On is expanding its customer base by announcing deals with Nissan, Slate and other suppliers, its performance may be impacted by the recent decision of Kia to reduce its EV target. SK Innovation's revenue for the first quarter of 2014 increased 12.2% on an annual basis to 21.1 trillion Won. The shares of SK Innovation fell 2.5% before the earnings announcement. This was below the benchmark KOSPI which rose 6.6% and has dropped 15.7% for the year.
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EUROPE GAS: Prices rangebound amid geopolitical concerns and warm weather
The Dutch and British wholesale prices of gas traded within a narrow range Wednesday morning due to the warm weather, a soft demand and stable supplies while market participants continued to monitor Russia and Ukraine peace talks. According to LSEG, the benchmark Dutch front-month contracts rose 0.10 euros to 31.90 euro per megawatt hour (10.63/mmBtu) at 0835 GMT. The British day-ahead contracts were up 0.23 pence, at 76.23 p/therm. Meanwhile, the front month contract increased 0.25 pence to 76.50 p/therm. LSEG analyst Yuriy Onyshkiv stated that robust LNG sendouts, stable Norwegian flows and a warmwave this week in Northwest Europe will keep the balance loose. Temperatures in north-west Europe will be above average until the next week, before falling from May 5-9. Auxilione, a consultancy, said that there was no change to the fundamentals. "Eyes will be focused on the developments in two of President Trump's main topics in the next few days: the resolution of the peace deal and his global tariffs," the note read. Auxilione stated that "both of these topics could further disrupt the energy markets." The Kremlin stated on Tuesday that Ukraine has not responded to numerous offers from Russia President Vladimir Putin for direct peace negotiations and that it is unclear whether or not it will join the three-day ceasefire that he announced next month. Putin declared Monday a ceasefire for three days in the Ukraine war from 8-10 May, when Russia will celebrate the 80th Anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany during World War Two. In response, Ukraine questioned why Moscow wouldn't agree to its request for a 30-day ceasefire that would begin immediately. Gas Infrastructure Europe reports that EU gas storage capacity is now 38.95% filled. The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets increased by 1.20 euros to 66.05 euro per metric ton. (Reporting and editing by Janane Vekatraman; Marwa Rashad)
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London metals fall on weak China factory data
Investors are watching upcoming U.S. data to get clues about the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. China's official purchasing manager's index dropped to 49.0 versus 50.5 in march, according to National Bureau of Statistics, on Wednesday. This is the lowest reading since 2023. It suggests that domestic demand continues to be weak, as factory owners struggled to find other buyers overseas amid the U.S. China trade dispute. As of 0829 GMT on April 1, the benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange fell by 2.3%, to $9,227.5 per metric ton, a 4.9% drop from its closing price on March 31, which was $9,710 per ton. Investors await the release of U.S. This week's Personal Consumption Expenditures data is a closely-watched inflation gauge. It could have an impact on Federal Reserve policy or metal prices. U.S. president Donald Trump signed two orders to reduce his auto tariffs. This was in response to Treasury Secretary Bessent who said that key U.S. traders had presented promising proposals for avoiding tariffs. Bessent noted that China’s recent exemptions of certain U.S. goods from retaliatory duties showed a willingness for de-escalation. A trader stated that "the disappointing PMI data clearly shows that trade war tensions have taken a toll in the economy, raising concern about a possible global recession which could reduce metals demand significantly." Other London metals saw aluminium fall 1.2% to $2.435 per ton, while zinc fell 0.9% to 2.62, lead slipped 0.7% to $1.964, tin dropped 0.3% to $31,815, and nickel climbed 0.1% to $15.560. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell 0.5% to $10,627 per ton. Shanghai copper prices were supported a massive fall in inventories In warehouses monitored the SHFE, that dropped by 32% on a weekly basis to 116.753 tons at April 25. SHFE aluminium fell by 0.1%, to 19,910 Chinese yuan per ton. Zinc dropped 0.4%, to 22,400 Yuan. Lead slid 0.6%, to 16,840 Yuan. Nickel lost 0.6%, to 123720 Yuan. Tin fell 0.4%, to 260300 yuan. $1 = 7.2660 Chinese yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Violet Li, Lewis Jackson and Rashmi aich).
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Gold prices record helps keep China's copper-smelters running despite losses
The soaring prices of gold and other byproducts keep China's copper-smelters afloat. They could prevent significant production cuts in this year, despite the fact that a key indicator of profitability is forecast to fall even further. China's copper industry is suffering from a severe slump as a growing number of furnaces compete for limited concentrate supplies. The smelting capacity has increased by a quarter from 2021, and it is expected to increase around 10% this coming year. Six traders and analysts believe that the fees smelters pay for refining ore (called concentrate treatment and refinement charges, TC/RCs) are already negative, and will continue to decline. Negative TC/RCs means that smelters have to pay traders or miners in order to convert concentrate into metal. They said that despite the dire TC/RCs, smelters will not cut production significantly because the high prices of smelting products like gold and sulfur partially offset losses. According to one trader who told him he heard about a TC/RC contract at minus $80.00 per metric ton, or minus 8.02 cents per pound, the record prices for gold offset some of losses in processing concentrate rich with gold. Three sources say that older, smaller smelters, without advanced technology for extracting gold and other byproducts, will struggle because they account for only a small portion of production. These facilities will not be affected by the closures or cuts. According to Shanghai Metals Market, the copper concentrates TC/RC Index hit a new record low on April 18 of -$34.71 a metric ton. This is a minus $3.47 cents if you weigh it. Analysts at Mysteel expect the refined copper output this year to increase by 10%. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence estimates that China has increased its copper smelting capacities by 12.78 million tonnes this year. This is up 8% over last year and by 25% since 2021. Official data shows that China's refined output of copper decreased only 0.5% on an annual basis to 3.35 millions metric tons during the first quarter. Reporting by Violet Li, Lewis Jackson and Saad Sayeed
Panama presidential competitors downplay collecting financial clouds
With Panama's. businessfriendly reputation bruised by a recent transfer to close a. copper mine accounting for 5% of GDP, the nation's next. president will face abnormally hard choices in attempting to get its. economy back on an even keel.
But while economists and even some politicians are advising. the May 5 election's victor toward out of favor measures to improve. diminished coffers - consisting of a distressed state pension system -. the 5 frontrunners are squarely focused on the costs side. of the journal.
It is progressively common in campaigns worldwide to see. prospects prevent touching on financial problems. Nobody wants to talk. about taxes or spending, considering that the electorate doesn't wish to. hear those messages, Citi analyst Ernesto Revilla informed .
Financiers holding over $33 billion in Panamanian bonds are. watching the situation carefully as are companies that have. gathered to the nation recently, tempted by its relatively. low taxes and laissez faire economic policies.
Fitch scores recently reduced Panama's debt to. speculative grade, mentioning financial and governance pressures. aggravated by the move to close First Quantum Minerals'. huge copper mine following nationwide protests.
If S&P or Moody's does the same, Panama would become a. so-called fallen angel, potentially sending its loaning costs. soaring as some funds would need to discharge its financial obligation. Both. agencies told they will keep an eye on the next federal government's. primary steps and investor confidence before acting.
Panama requires to trek profits considering that tax consumption has just. risen usually about 1.5% annually in the previous years, even as. GDP development has balanced 6% in small terms, said Todd Martinez,. Fitch Rankings Americas sovereigns co-head.
Fitch pegs the nation's 2024 financial deficit at 4.7% of GDP,. up from 2.95% last year when it was bolstered by some one-off. gains.
One apparently simple source of $375 million in yearly income. was lost last year after the copper mine's agreement was. shuttered following widespread demonstrations.
The Panama Canal's contribution to state coffers, on the other hand,. is anticipated to fall 2.9% this year, primarily due to reduced. traffic and capital reserves for future tasks, according to a. statement by its administration.
S&P's associate director Karla Gonzalez told the. company recently integrated the canal's drought as a drawback. threat.
Among the five frontrunners to replace outgoing President. Laurentino Cortizo, 3 have argued that the nation can. tackle its budget shortage without treking taxes. Another 2. have actually avoided the subject altogether.
We are not raising Panamanians' taxes, governmental. candidate Romulo Roux, ranked 2nd in most surveys, told. .
Roux said he would work to lure private financial investment for. projects that he said would create 500,000 tasks, and pledged to. make tax collection more efficient and cut spending in areas. such as the nationwide assembly's budget.
Ricardo Lombana, a former diplomat installing his second. governmental campaign who has actually swung in between second and fifth in. most current surveys, told he would trek incomes by dealing with. corruption and cutting unnecessary expenses, while dismissing. any tax walkings.
Many experts say prospects are failing to come clean on. required deficit-cutting steps, while acknowledging that it. would be political suicide to discuss them so near to the vote.
Previous economy and finance minister Frank De Lima says. Panama has overlooked the sectors that used to shine prior to. First Quantum's arrival, making the course to healing tougher.
Others state the country's problems are primarily surmountable. and that financiers who have actually sold off its bonds because Fitch's. downgrade might have over responded.
The Central American nation's total debt stands at $49.8. billion, amounting to over 50% of its GDP.
Previous president and prospect Martin Torrijos, who holds. the 3rd put on the race according to a lot of surveys, told. his administration slashed financial obligation to 40% of GPD from 70%. by handling state resources with austerity, which he prepares to do. once again, without offering information on which expenses he would cut. in his brand-new term if chosen.
As for the country's state pension fund, which is running. perilously low on reserves, all five front-runners have. recognized a need to restore it. Still, none has openly. suggested raising the retirement age or obligatory contributions.
Roux and Lombana said advantage decreases and raising the. retirement age were measures off the table, while Torrijos vowed. for a nationwide dialogue to decide how to salvage the system.
WHAT WOULD PROSPECTS DO?
If information are sparse on potential austerity measures, the. projects are more forthcoming about huge spending plans.
Mulino, standing in for founded guilty former president Ricardo. Martinelli, has actually vowed to present the biggest roadway. rehab strategy in history and develop healthcare facilities and a new. railway.
He is the favorite to win the upcoming election according to. most surveys. His campaign did not make him offered for comment.
Torrijos aims to spend $19 billion on 40 various jobs. including a brand-new city line and water reservoirs for the canal.
Others would target their costs at tasks from tourist. promotion to port facilities and prisons.
Panama does not require a Milei walking with a chainsaw on the. streets, however it does need a firm leader, former deputy economy. minister Domingo Latorraca informed , referring to. Argentina's austerity-minded President Javier Milei.
However the next federal government will require to clearly explain its. plans to recover from the dreadful one-off of the mine closure. relocate to ranking firms, shareholders and financiers.
So far, there are few indications of that happening.
(source: Reuters)