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Thyssenkrupp reduces sales forecast and investment budget due to weak global trade
Thyssenkrupp, the German conglomerate, cut its outlook for sales and investments for the full year on Thursday. It blamed a weak demand for their products, as President Donald Trump’s import tariffs disrupted global trade in autos, machines, and building materials. With a diverse portfolio, including steelmaking and sub-marine production, the company now expects its sales to drop 5%-7% in its fiscal year up until September 30. It had previously predicted a drop of up to 3% in sales. The company stated that it now expects adjusted earnings before interest and taxes to be lower than the range of 0.6 billion to one billion euros ($0.7billion to $1.2billion) in its guidance. The group's third-quarter adjusted EBIT, which covers the period from April to the end of June, rose by 4%, to 155 millions euros. This was below the average analyst estimate, which was 174 million euros. Miguel Lopez, CEO of Thyssenkrupp, said: "The last quarter was marked by immense macroeconomic uncertainty." We are feeling the weakness of the market in industries that we serve, such as automotive, engineering and the construction industry. Reporting by Christoph Steitz, Editing by Richard Chang, Ludwig Burger
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Sources: Vietnam will buy its first US oil in 2025
Sources said that Binh Son Refining and Petrochemicals (BSR), a Vietnamese company, has purchased one million barrels U.S. West Texas intermediate crude for delivery in November, marking the first U.S. oil purchases by Vietnam since 2025. Sources claim that BSR purchased the light-sweet crude oil from Mercuria. Typically, it processes domestic crude. BSR's board of directors declined to comment when contacted by us. The company didn't immediately reply to our email. Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand are all committed to buying more U.S. crude oil as part of agreements negotiated with Washington in order to reduce the trade surpluses between them and avoid high U.S. tariffs. WTI is now more competitive for November cargoes in Asia, after the Middle East oil price increased. Kpler, a data analytics company, shows that Vietnam's last importation of U.S. Crude was December 2024. The Southeastern nation buys a lot of crude oil from Kuwait, Brunei, and Libya.
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Saudi crude oil prices are rising at a time when the market is trying to gain share, says Russell
OPEC+’s recent decision, to unwind 2.2m barrels of crude oil production cuts per day has been viewed largely as a sign that the exporter group is shifting from trying to boost prices to rebuilding their market share. Saudi Arabia's recent decision to increase its official selling price (OSP) for its main Asian clients for September-loading shipments seems at odds with its strategy to regain market share. Saudi Aramco is the state-controlled oil company of the Kingdom. It has raised the OSP for the flagship Arab Light blend in Asia by $3.20 per barrel over the average price for Oman/Dubai. Aramco announced a $1 increase per barrel for August's loading cargoes, and it was the second consecutive monthly increase by the world's largest crude exporter. The price increase was in line with expectations from refiners who were surveyed before the announcement. It reflects changes in the market prices for both margin yields and term structure on different refined products. The Saudi price increase, which also affects other Middle East producers like Kuwait and Iraq was neither unusual nor out of the ordinary. It also shows Aramco made little effort to increase the appeal of their crude oil to Asia-based refining companies, who buy around 80% of the Kingdom's exports. Importers find that Saudi crude oil and other producers' crudes that follow Aramco’s pricing are less appealing than grades of rival grades priced according to global benchmarks such as Brent or West Texas Intermediate. It is not surprising that refiners of price-sensitive countries like China and India would try to minimize imports from Saudi Arabia and maximize supply from other sources. The Saudi allocations for Chinese refiners are already reflecting this. According to a report on August 11, citing multiple trade sources, 1.43 million barrels per day (bpd) will be shipped in September. This is down from 1.65 millions bpd during August. China also increases imports of some products from producers outside the OPEC+ bloc. PIVOT FROM OPEC+ Kpler, commodity analysts, estimates China's imports of Brazil at 1.39m bpd for August. This is a record and up from 779k bpd during July. China's Angola arrivals are estimated to have been 823,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August. This is the highest since October 2023, and nearly double what they were in July (419, 000 bpd). Aramco has reported that refiners in India have received their full September cargo allocations, but they have not requested any additional crude. Indian refiners have yet to decide whether they can continue to buy Russian crude oil after U.S. president Donald Trump threatened to impose double tariffs on the imports of South Asian nations if it did not stop buying Russian oil. Kpler estimates that August arrivals are 2.02 million barrels per day, a significant increase from the 1.60 million barrels per day in July. The real impact will be felt in September. It is clear that Indian refiners will be turning to crude oil from the Americas in September. Kpler estimates imports of US crude at 465,000 barrels per day, up from 264,000 barrels per day in August, and the highest since January 2023. In September, India imported 106,000 barrels per day from Brazil, after taking no crude oil from the South American exporter during June, July, and August. When Middle East giants increase prices, it is clear that China and India are looking for lower-priced oil. It is likely that the Saudis, and those producers who follow their prices, are not currently focused on increasing their market share. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist who writes for. (Editing by Tom Hogue).
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Bitcoin joins the party at MORNING BID EUROPE
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets When cryptocurrencies are on fire, you know that markets are risky. Bitcoin has joined global stocks in scaling a new record high as the near certainty of U.S. rate cuts boosts risk sentiment. Bitcoin, the world's most popular cryptocurrency, has many things going for it. It is likely to see lower interest rates in the future, as well as a more favorable regulatory environment and strong institutional investor flows. Ether has also been on a charge. It is hovering at its highest level since November 2021 and has become the token of preference for those seeking more active returns. In fact, the ether price is up by 42%, which is more than triple that of bitcoin. After a week of explosive gains, Asian stocks took a break. Japanese shares dropped after reaching a record-high, while Taiwanese and South Korean stocks eased off after recent highs. Investors bet that the Federal Reserve is going to start cutting interest rates again from next month. Traders have started pricing in odds for a 50 basis point cut following comments by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. If we had seen these numbers in May or June, I think we would have been able to cut rates in June and/or July. Bessent told Bloomberg Television that this tells him that a rate cut of 50 basis points is likely to occur in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell - who has been repeatedly slammed by U.S. president Donald Trump - is expected to give a speech at a central banking research conference in Wyoming, next week. The focus will be his tone regarding policy direction. Bessent said that the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates, as it has fallen behind in addressing the inflation risk. This led to a strong rise in the yen which was at its highest level in 3 weeks. Investors will focus on economic data during European hours, which will provide a glimpse at the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their impact on the economy. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. Economic events: Euro zone flash Q2 GDP, UK prelim Q2 GDP
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Saipem Marks First Steel Cut for Tangguh UCC Project at Karimun Yard
The First Steel Cutting ceremony took place at Saipem’s Karimun fabrication yard, marking the official start of construction activities for the Tangguh UCC project, awarded by bp Indonesia.The event was attended by representatives of the client, local and national government bodies, together with key members of Saipem’s management team gathered to celebrate this significant milestone achievement.The Tangguh UCC project, located in Papua Barat province, Indonesia, is a national strategic project that includes the development of the Ubadari gas field, increasing gas acquisition through carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology, and onshore compression. It is expected to unlock around 3 trillion cubic feet of additional natural gas resources from the Ubadari offshore field.Saipem's activities include the engineering, procurement, construction and installation and commissioning of two wellhead platforms, a CO2 reinjection platform, and approximately 90 km of associated pipelines, cables and tie-in to existing brownfield facilities.The Karimun Yard, recognized as Saipem’s strategic fabrication centre in Southeast Asia, is Saipem’s largest one worldwide and one of the largest in the Southeast Asian region, with over 5,000 employees and approximately 1.4 million square meters area including the marine base and docks.
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US explores cooperation with Pakistan in critical minerals and hydrocarbons
In a statement released by the State Department to mark Pakistan's Independence Day, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Washington was looking forward to exploring collaboration with Pakistan in relation critical minerals and hydrocarbons. WHY IT IS IMPORTANT Washington hailed an agreement last month between Islamabad and Pakistan, which Pakistan claimed would lead to lower tariffs and more investment. Jam Kamal, Pakistan's Commerce minister, has stated that Islamabad is offering U.S. companies the opportunity to invest in mining in Balochistan and other areas of southwest Pakistan through joint ventures. Reko Diq is one of the largest gold and silver mines in the world, and it's run by Barrick Gold. KEY QUOTES Rubio stated late on Wednesday that he was looking forward to exploring new economic areas, including hydrocarbons and minerals of critical importance, as well as fostering dynamic business relationships. The United States is deeply appreciative of Pakistan's efforts in counterterrorism and trade. CONTEXT Prior to President Donald Trump’s administration, Islamabad’s relationship with Washington had cooled over the past few years as, among other things, the U.S. moved closer to Pakistan’s traditional rival India in order to counter China’s rise. Washington was also angry with Islamabad for Afghanistan, particularly under the administration of former President Joe Biden, who oversaw the chaotic withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and tookover of the nation by the Taliban, whom Washington had accused Islamabad to be supporting. Pakistan denied this charge. Washington's relations with Islamabad improved in recent months. Trump credited him with a ceasefire in India and Pakistan in May after both countries engaged in hostilities following an attack on India-administered Kashmir in April. Pakistan has praised Trump, while India maintains that New Delhi and Islamabad must resolve their differences directly between themselves without external involvement. Tuesday, the U.S. held a round of counterterrorism discussions with Pakistan in Islamabad. Washington has declared the separatist militant Balochistan Liberation Army a "foreign terror organization." Michael Kugelman is a Washington-based South Asia expert and writer at Foreign Policy magazine. He said: "The US-Pakistan Counterterrorism Dialogue joint statement is the most positive and effusive that I've heard from these countries in quite a number of years."
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The Fed's rate-cutting drumbeat brings the dollar down; Asian stocks are taking a break
The U.S. Dollar was under pressure Thursday, as traders bet that the Federal Reserve would resume lowering interest rates in January. Bitcoin reached a new record high while regional stocks saw a pause from their explosive rally. MSCI's index of Asian stocks excluding Japan remained near its highest level since September 2021. It took cues from Wall Street where the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Index hit new closing highs on the second consecutive day. On Wednesday, the MSCI All Country World Index reached a new record for the second consecutive session. Japan's Nikkei index fell following a six-day rally which saw it surpass the 43,000 level for the first. Korea and Taiwan also saw a slight decline in their shares. Hong Kong's shares and China's blue chip index both gained. The dollar dropped to a 2-week low versus a basket major counterparts on changing expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts. Comments from the U.S. Treasury secretary also helped bolster expectations for an outsized cut of 50 basis points. Early trading saw the Japanese yen reach a three-week peak of 146.38 to the dollar. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Wednesday that a half-point reduction in September was possible after the revised labour market figures from last week revealed that job growth in May, July and June had been sharply slowed. Goldman Sachs stated on Wednesday that it expects three interest rate reductions of 25 basis points this year, and two additional ones in 2026. The odds of a 50% cut have risen to 7% from 0% one week ago. While the tame U.S. Inflation Report this week has boosted the case to cut rates, some analysts cautioned that market complacency may be a result of upcoming data. Carol Kong, an economist and currency analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said: "We are not as confident as the financial markets that a 25bp FOMC interest rate cut will be implemented in September, let alone 50bp." Kong stated that "another CPI and payrolls reports will be released before the September meeting, which can make or break a case for a cut in rates." BITCOIN AND GOLD Analysts also point to recent financial reforms for a boost to the asset class. Bitcoin is up 32% in 2025. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, is up 41%. It's just a little bit shy of its November 2021 high. Gold prices increased 0.5% on commodity markets to $3371. Crude oil prices also edged upwards after hitting a low of two months on Wednesday, as investors focused on the Friday summit between U.S. president Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump warned on Wednesday that "severe consequences would follow" if Putin refused to agree to peace in Ukraine. He also stated that the meeting could be quickly followed by another one, which would include Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Trump has previously said that both sides would have to exchange land in order to stop the fighting, which has resulted in thousands of deaths and millions of displaced people. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote that while a lack of progress on a ceasefire could lead to new threats of secondary oil sanctions/tariffs, they saw a limited risk of major disruptions of Russia's supply. They said that the large volumes of Russian energy exports and the potential for deeper price discounts in order to maintain demand as well as the eagerness of India and China to continue their energy cooperation will likely prevent major disruptions. Trump signed a executive order last Friday, imposing an additional 25% on India's imports into the U.S. He claimed that India directly or indirectly imported Russian crude oil. He has hinted that he may impose similar tariffs against China.
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Gold prices continue to rise as Fed hopes for rate cuts and a weaker dollar drive the price up.
Gold gained for a third consecutive session on Thursday. This was boosted by expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September due to the tame inflation figures, which also weighed down on the dollar. As of 0156 GMT, spot gold increased 0.4% to $3367.53 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery increased by 0.3% to $3416.70. Markets are pricing the possibility that the Fed will cut 50 basis points this September. The dollar is weakening and gold has risen as a consequence. Yields have also fallen, said Kyle Rodda. The technical setup for gold is very positive. The trend is still upward. "We just need to see the market consistently break through the $3,400 mark." Dollars of rival currencies were at multi-week lows, making gold cheaper for those who hold them. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields in the United States held at a one week low. The U.S. consumer price index rose marginally only in July, boosting expectations for a Fed rate reduction next month. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that there's a good possibility the central bank would opt for a 50% reduction. LSEG data shows that traders now consider a September 17 cut as a near-certainty. They even place odds of around 6% on a half-point reduction. Gold that does not yield is more likely to thrive in an environment with low interest rates. Investors await the U.S. Economic Data due this week. This includes the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), weekly claims for unemployment and retail sales. These data will provide clues as to the Fed's future rate path. In the geopolitical arena, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned U.S. Donald Trump before his meeting with Vladimir Putin about the Russian leader's "bluffing". Spot silver rose 0.3% per ounce to $38.59, platinum gained 0.1% to $1340.55, and palladium climbed 1.5% to $1139.52. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Nady and Subhranshu Sahu in Bengaluru.
Steel prices and weak China data are lowering iron ore prices
Iron ore futures fell on Thursday as a result of signs of weaker demand, after China's new loans in yuan unexpectedly contracted for a first time in 20 years, and steel prices dropped due to high supplies and seasonal lower consumption.
By 0259 GMT, the most traded January iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange fell by 1.88% to 783.50 yuan (109.25 dollars) per metric ton.
The benchmark iron ore for September on the Singapore Exchange fell by 0.78% to $102.7 per ton.
China's new loans in yuan contracted in July, for the first time since two decades. This indicates a weak demand from the private sector amid ongoing trade negotiations with Washington.
The central bank has not loosened policy despite the first contraction of new yuan loan since July 2005, and the largest decline in credit since December 1999.
The Chinese consultancy Mysteel stated that the demand for steel construction in China is expected to be stable in August. This will be supported by new projects. However, recent bad weather has affected outdoor construction.
Galaxy Futures, a broker, says that despite speculative demands for finished steel products the high supply of crude steel and seasonal lower demand is pushing prices down.
Galaxy said that despite reports of production restrictions at steel mills for the rest of this month, the 90-day extension on a tariff truce with China and the "anti involution" campaign aimed at reducing price wars, prices were still supported by Galaxy.
Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also fell, by 5.17% and 3.59 %, respectively.
Mysteel reported that China's coking market softened after a shopping spree. End-users increased material cost control, Mysteel stated in a separate report.
The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in steel benchmarks. ($1 = 7.1713 Chinese yuan) (Reporting by Lucas Liew; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
(source: Reuters)