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Gold reaches new record highs on the back of tariff fears and exchange-traded funds inflows
Gold prices surged on Monday to a new record high, driven by demand for safe havens amid fears over U.S. president Donald Trump's proposed tariffs. Inflows into the top gold-backed ETF in the world also helped. As of 09:33 am, spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,941.60 per ounce. ET (1433 GMT). The session began with a high of $2,956.15, its 11th highest record in 2025. U.S. Gold Futures increased by 0.2% to $2.957.50. The U.S. Dollar index reached its lowest level since December 10 during the session earlier, making bullion cheaper for buyers who use other currencies. Jim Wyckoff is a Kitco Metals senior analyst. He believes that the gold price will continue to rise in the weeks, months and years to come. As long as there is uncertainty, gold will continue to rise. Last week, Donald Trump warned that new tariffs were imminent. These plans are widely viewed as inflationary, and can spark trade wars. This will increase the demand for safe haven assets such as bullion. The SPDR Gold Trust is the largest gold-backed ETF in the world. Its holdings reached 904.38 tons on Friday. This was the highest level since August 2023. Investors are focusing on the $3,000 mark as prices above $2,950 an ounce have investors looking to the metal's price increase of more than 12% by 2025. The U.S. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator is the Personal Consumption Expenditures Report. A majority of economists who had previously predicted a rate cut in March believe that the Fed will wait until the next quarter to make another rate reduction. At least nine U.S. Central Bank officials are also expected to make speeches this week. They are expected reinforce a cautious approach on future rate cuts. Spot silver fell 0.3% to $32.45 per ounce. Platinum dropped 0.8% to $861.95, and palladium lost 2% to $948.00.
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Equinox Gold, a Canadian company, will buy Calibre Mining for $1.8 billion in an all-stock transaction.
Equinox Gold, Canada's gold mining company, announced on Sunday that it will acquire all of the outstanding shares in Calibre Mining. The deal is an all-stock transaction. Equinox hopes to profit from the upcoming Canadian production as gold prices hit record highs. Calibre shareholders receive 0.31 Equinox shares for every Calibre share they hold. This gives the deal an estimated value of C$2.56billion ($1.80billion) per calculation based on their last close. Executives plan to streamline the portfolio. Greg Smith, Equinox CEO, said that the Caliber mines' other mines will immediately provide cashflow into the combined company, and help to reduce debt faster. Smith's position will remain the same in the new company. The deal is expected to be completed by the second quarter this year. It includes two of Canada's newest gold mines, the Greenstone Mine, in Ontario. This mine will pour its first gold in 2024. And the Valentine Gold Mine, in Newfoundland & Labrador. When both Canadian mines are fully operational, the combined company will produce more than 1,2 million ounces gold per year. Darren Hall, the current Chief Executive Officer of Calibre will join as President and Chief Operational Officer. Gold prices are nearing their record high of $2,954.69 per ounce. This is due to central bank purchases, inflation hedging and gold miner earnings. Analysts at TD Cowen, however, see that the deal is valued lower than the recent Newmont assets sales in North America. We would expect that Calibre shareholders may be seeking a higher price, which will include a premium for the change of control. The brokerage stated that there is a possibility of a better bid emerging. Early morning trading saw shares of Calibre Mining down 3.9%.
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Data shows that up to 90% of LME aluminum inventories are controlled by a single party
According to LME data released on Monday, one party controls up to 90% (or half a billion dollars) of the available London Metal Exchange aluminium inventories. The exchange doesn't reveal the identities of those who hold large positions. However, investors and traders often keep inventories in order to take advantage of looming shortages or meet their obligations to customers. Alastair Muuro, a senior base metals analyst at broker Marex said: "It would seem a reasonable assumption that it is a trader who wants to fill a short of metal. Munro said that this is reflected by a recent spate of cancellations at LME warehouses - 32 175 metric tonnes in one week - where owners have given notice of their plans to remove the metal. LME positioning data (#LMEWHL) showed that between 80% to 90% of LME stocks of zinc and aluminium were held by a single party as of 20 February. The exchange said in an email that "the LME closely monitors the tightness of these markets and has all the necessary controls to ensure continued orderliness on the market." Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing owns the LME. The total LME stock of aluminium is 535,900 tonnes, but LME's position data is based on the inventory that has not been cancelled, i.e., those inventories earmarked for upcoming shipment, which are 208,400 tones. At the LME's cash price, 90 percent of the available metal for packaging, transport and construction is worth $505 million. The benchmark LME three-month aluminium price reached its highest level in almost nine months, at $2 736 per ton on Friday. This was in response to a European Union decision to ban Russian primary aluminum imports. LME Stocks Overall Since May of last year, the price of aluminium has halved. This suggests a tighter market. The premium for cash LME Aluminium over the benchmark contract of three months is also reflected. On February 17,, the price of a ton of coal jumped to $38. This was the highest closing price since May 2023. The premium (also known as backwardation) usually indicates a shortage of short-term inventory on the LME. The key LME Zinc spread did not show any backwardation. The LME inventory of the main metal used for galvanizing iron has fallen Analysts have predicted a global surplus for this year. (Reporting and editing by David Evans, Tomaszjanowski and David Evans; Additional reporting by Polina Devtt and Pratima Dasai)
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Andy Home: China tightens its grip on global nickel supplies with Anglo's sale
Anglo American’s sale of its Brazilian Nickel business to China’s MMG Ltd. is a win-win for both companies. Anglo delivers on its shareholders' promise to simplify its portfolio, and pockets up to $500m. MMG, a producer of zinc, copper and cobalt, can diversify and grow its geographical footprint by expanding into Brazil. The market for nickel is one of the few that has shown signs of resilience in the face of a glut. It's not good news for western countries that want to escape China's tightening of the global nickel supply chains. China already controls around 75% the refining capacity of Indonesia, which is rapidly emerging as the world's biggest supplier. China's dominance of the nickel market could grow even more as two other Western producers look to sell their nickel operations because of low prices. Price Devastation Anglo's Brazilian assets include two mines and processing plants, with a combined annual capacity of 40,000 tons of nickel. The two plants produce ferronickel, a metal that is used in the production of stainless steel. Stainless steel remains the biggest consumer of nickel, despite its increasing use in batteries for electric vehicles. The nickel market in this segment was the first to be affected by the Indonesian production boom. This initially took the form of nickel pig iron, a stainless steel competitor. These Class II Nickel products are always sold at a lower price than the Class I high purity refined metal that is traded on the London Metal Exchange. According to MMG's investor presentations on the deal, Indonesia's production boom caused the discount from LME prices to soar from an average of 8.4% in 2001 up to 27.2% by 2023. The LME was also falling, which was bad news for Class II producers. According to Macquarie Bank's Jim Lennon, around half of ferronickel production in the world outside of China or Indonesia has been suspended. CARBON EDGE Anglo-Brazilian operations is among the survivors. The nickel price on the London Metal Exchange has fallen to a four-year low of less than $16,000 per tonne. Anglo's Ferronickel is sold at a higher price than other Class II products because of its superior quality and environmental credentials compared to Indonesian NPI. The carbon footprint has become more important in the stainless steel sector. Carbon Border Adjustment, a tax on imports with higher carbon content, will be implemented by the European Union next year. TURNAROUND The Class II nickel market has turned around, even as the LME Nickel price continues to fall under the weight rising inventories, largely Chinese and Indonesian. According to MMG, the discount on the LME Nickel price has decreased by an average of 25% in the first half last year. The discount for Anglo nickel material has decreased to 15.9%, down from 20.8% by 2023. The closure of large capacity in the West, as well as a shift in product mix in Indonesia have both impacted the supply. Many Indonesian operators switched from producing NPI in the stainless steel sector, to either producing nickel matte or mixed hydroxide in the battery sector. Macquarie’s Lennon believes that the Class II segment was best balanced in the last year, as the surplus Indonesians transferred to the Class 1 segment. This glut can be seen in the LME warehouse stock, which has risen by 30,000 tons this year, bringing it to 192 828 tons. STRATEGIC METHAL MMG believes that the glut of stainless steel will not last past this decade. This is when the combination of a steady increase in global production and a surge in demand for batteries will lead to soaring supply deficits. The company would be in a good position to reap the benefits if it did. Anglo's Nickel assets are located on the third largest nickel resource in the world, which could transform MMG into the largest producer of the metal outside of Indonesia. Although the Brazilian operations produce ferronickel at the moment, they could easily be re-configured in the same way as the Indonesians and produce battery components. China still views nickel as a strategic metal, even though its lustre has diminished in the West. Vale, a Brazilian company, has announced a $1.4bn impairment on its Thompson Nickel operations in Canada. Vale also launched a review of their business. Thompson nickel is not the only nickel-related asset that could be acquired by Chinese investors. South32, an Australian miner, also plans to sell off its Cerro Matoso ferronickel operation in Colombia in response to "structural changes in the nickel markets", it stated in its Q4 report for 2024. These structural changes were brought about by Chinese investments in Indonesia. China is now able to double down on the long-term bet it has made that nickel will still be a key metal in the energy transition due to the supply tsunami and price crash. The author is a columnist at
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Minister: Nuclear power projects supported by the US in Romania should not be included in election disputes
Romania's Energy Minister said that recent criticisms from members of the Trump administration regarding a cancelled elections should not affect Romanian nuclear projects supported by U.S. firms. The Romanian top court annulled the presidential elections in December on the suspicion of Russian interference, which Moscow denied. Elon Musk, a tech billionaire and vice president of the United States, singled out Romania in a broader criticism of Europe that points to possible policy shifts. Nuclearelectrica, a Romanian nuclear power company owned by the Romanian government, signed a 3.2-billion euro contract for main engineering to build two nuclear reactors of 700 MW each before 2032. The consortium included four companies including U.S. Fluor Corporation as well as Sargent & Lundy. Nuclearelectrica plans to build a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) by 2029, possibly for the first time ever in Europe. The technology will come from NuScale Power. The U.S. EXIM Bank, and International Development Finance Corporation committed funding for the project. When asked if the criticism from the United States of Romania would affect ongoing projects, Energy minister Sebastian Burduja replied: "Not in our view." He said: "These projects are involving large American companies, and we believe it's in the best interest of the United States to continue these projects regardless of any political context." Burduja announced that Romania will hold a second auction for 3.5 GW solar and wind projects, funded by a Contract for Difference (CFD) scheme supported by European Union funds. The tender is expected to take place in the first six months of this year. The Modernisation Fund is a program under the European Green Deal that supports 10 EU member states with lower incomes to upgrade their energy systems. (Reporting and editing by Kirby Donovan; Luiza Ilie is the reporter)
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90 % of LME Aluminium inventories are controlled by a single party
According to LME data released on Monday, one party controls up to 90% (or half a billion dollars) of the available London Metal Exchange aluminium inventories. The exchange doesn't reveal the identities of those who hold large positions. However, investors and traders often keep inventories in order to take advantage of looming shortages, or to fulfill commitments made to customers. Alastair Muuro, senior strategist for base metals at broker Marex, said: "It would seem a reasonable assumption that the trader is looking to fill a short of metal. Munro said that this is reflected by a recent spate of new cancellations at LME warehouses - 32 175 metric tonnes in one week - where owners have given notice of their plans to remove the metal. LME positioning data (0#LMEWHL>) showed that between 80% to 90% of LME inventories for metals used in transport, packaging and building were held by a single party as of 20 February. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, which owns the LME, did not respond immediately to a comment request. The total LME stock of aluminium is 535,900 tonnes, but LME's position data is based on the inventory that has not been cancelled, i.e., those that are earmarked for shipment, which amounts to 208,400 tonnes. At the LME Cash Price, 90 percent of these stocks were worth $505 million. The benchmark LME three-month aluminium price reached its highest level in almost nine months, at $2 736 per ton on Friday. This was in response to a European Union decision to ban Russian primary aluminum imports. LME Stocks Overall Since May of last year, the price of aluminium has halved. This suggests a tighter market. The premium for cash LME Aluminium over the benchmark contract of three months is also reflected. On February 17,, the price of a ton reached $38. This was the highest closing price since May 2023. The premium (also known as backwardation) usually indicates a shortage of short-term inventory on the LME. LME data showed that between 80 and 90 percent of zinc inventories were held by a single party on February 20th, worth approximately $370 million. However, the LME zinc spread did not show any backwardation. The LME inventory of the main metal used for galvanizing iron has fallen Analysts have predicted a global surplus for this year. (Reporting and editing by David Evans; Additional reporting by Polina Devtt, Pratima Dasai, and Eric Onstad)
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Meloni, an Italian company, has secured a pledge of investment worth 40 billion dollars from the UAE.
At a Rome bilateral summit, the United Arab Emirates announced that it plans to invest 40 billion dollars in Italy. The two countries did not give a timeframe. Since taking office as Italian Prime Minister in 2022 Giorgia Mello has sought to strengthen ties with Gulf nations, ignoring the concerns raised by political rivals over human rights. Italy under her leadership lifted the arms embargoes imposed on the UAE and Saudi Arabia by previous governments in connection with the Yemen war. Meloni received Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahya, President of the UAE, on Monday during his state visit to Rome. The pair also pledged to continue working towards a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership." In a joint press release, the two governments stated that "the UAE has committed $40 billion in investment in Italy in key sectors". The report added that "over 40 new agreements have been signed" in areas such as economic cooperation, investment, defence, nuclear, and space affairs. The names of the companies were not disclosed. Eni, the Italian energy giant, announced separately that it had signed a separate letter of intent with UAE-based companies MGX G42 for the development of data centres in Italy powered by natural gas plants using carbon capture technology. Eni has also signed an agreement with Masdar, the state-controlled renewables energy company in the UAE. Taqa Transmission will give Eni the status of preferred off-taker of renewable energy produced by Albania as part of a Italo-UAE and Albanian deal announced in January. Eni also signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund ADQ for cooperation on the critical mineral supply chain. Meloni said at the Italy-United Arab Emirates Business Forum held in Rome that "it is a historical day, another landmark in our relationship." She added, "We chose to focus our partnership on strategic axes such as artificial intelligence (AI), data centres, research in space, renewable energy, and rare earths." The joint statement emphasized enhanced military and safety cooperation through "joint manufacturing, technology transfer and the development defense manufacturing facilities." The report also called for a closer collaboration with international partners, such as the United States, on the issue of ransomware and joint cybersecurity exercises. Meloni announced a strategic partnership strengthened with Saudi Arabia last month. The deal was accompanied by a series of business deals valued at around $10 billion. (Reporting and editing by Gavin Jones, Christina Fincher and Alvise Armellini)
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Rusal, a Russian company, cancels bond placings following EU sanctions
Market sources reported that Rusal, the Russian aluminium manufacturer, cancelled on Monday a placement of Yuan and Rouble bonds after the EU banned imports of primary aluminium from Russia in a new package of sanctions. The European Council included an aluminium ban as part of its 16th package of sanctions against Russia, but also introduced a quota to facilitate the transition. This quota is 275,000 tons per year for aluminum imports from Russia. In 2024, the EU imported approximately 344,000 tons (or aluminimum) from Russia. In 2024, the EU Commission reported that Russian aluminium only accounted for 6% of all metal imports, down from 16% in 2010. Rusal, a Hong Kong-listed company, planned to offer investors bonds in the amount of 500 million yuan ($68.97million) with settlements made in roubles as well as 10 billions roubles (113.74million) in roubles. Rusal declined to comment. It is the largest aluminum producer in the world outside of China. Rusal, a company that is not directly sanctioned by the West, has sought to diversify its sales to Asian markets. Rusal saw its share of revenues from Europe fall to 22% in the first half 2024. This is down from 31%. The 16th package is likely to have a significant impact on the finances of the company, according to Renaissance Capital debt analyst Vladimir Vasilenko. Bonds offer Russian companies more attractive rates of interest than bank loans. Bank loans have become unaffordable after the central banks raised its key rate to 21% in 2011.
LME checks Russian aluminium play but is it game over? Andy Home
The London Metal Exchange's. ( LME) alerting shot to those looking to video game the brand-new sanctions on. Russian aluminium appears to have actually worked, in the meantime a minimum of.
Traders dove on the LME's stocks of Russian brand name. aluminium after the U.S. and UK federal governments banned exchanges. from taking delivery of Russian metal produced after April 12.
Over half of signed up tonnage was cancelled over the. taking place week, destined for an imaginative run-around that would see. it re-warranted under more limiting trading conditions and. locked into a lucrative rent-sharing warehouse deal.
A substantial amount of that cancelled stock was returned. onto LME warrant recently after the exchange modified its brand-new. guidelines around Russian metal shipment.
The physical liquidity increase has actually soothed time-spreads, the. benchmark cash-to-three-months duration << CMAL0-3 > returning to. contango.
Crisis prevented, although it remains to be seen whether there. are more twists in the LME's long-running Russian aluminium. story.
The exchange is fortunate that physical purchasers, particularly. Chinese gamers, are still more than happy to soak up excess. Russian metal.
THE GWANGYANG SHUFFLE
The LME stocks raid was concentrated on the South Korean. port of Gwangyang, where 109,125 metric lots of aluminium. stock were cancelled over the week of April 15, consisting of a. huge 79,850 tons on April 15 itself.
Over 90% of all LME warrants were Russian-brand metal at the. end of March and much of it has actually been being in Gwangyang, which. holds around half of all registered stock.
Such warrants, already on exchange at the time of the. sanctions statement, can be freely traded. Taken off-warrant. and provided back to the LME, they would have included. restrictions on UK and U.S. people or entities being able to. cancel them once again or take physical delivery.
Likely stuck in the LME system for a lengthy period, the. metal would have produced an income stream for the warehouse. operator and, via a rental-share arrangement, with the entity. re-warranting it.
The LME has actually relocated to close the possible loop-hole by making. it a lot easier to convert re-warranted Russian metal back to its. initial free-trade status.
The exchange has actually also reminded storage facility operators that. If they serve to restrict, rent-sharing offers aren't enabled. future owners' ability to take physical shipment, which seems to. have been the property of this particular storage play.
The regulatory suggestion appears to have had an impact with. 88,625 tons of aluminium re-warranted at Gwangyang on May 1.
GAME OVER?
This may not be completion of the LME's Russian aluminium saga,. which has actually been running considering that Russia's full-blown intrusion of. Ukraine in 2022.
The most recent sanctions bundle, drawing the line between metal. produced before and after April 13, will raise the pressure on. the exchange to make its own call on prohibiting Russian aluminium.
But there still appears to be a lot of metal on the relocation. Leaving out the Gwangyang shuffle, there have been practically 106,000. tons of net brand-new cancellations since April 12.
Is this non-Russian metal being nabbed up? Or has someone. devised another method of gaming the brand-new sanctions guidelines?
There is likewise the potential for Russian metal that was. saved off market prior to April 13 to gravitate to LME storage,. something the exchange itself stated was a potential outcome.
Up until now this hasn't happened but what the LME calls. off-warrant stocks of inventory were a significant 737,000. tons at the end of February, according to the most current. month-to-month exchange update.
Considered that Russia's Rusal is such a huge producer with sales. of 4.2 million lots in 2023, at least a few of this shadow stock. is likely Russian metal.
CHINESE IMPORTS
The LME is fortunate that although the United States has now. banned all imports and numerous Western consumers are. self-sanctioning, Russian aluminium is still discovering a physical. home.
China in particular is absorbing what the West won't buy.
The country imported 1.2 million lots of Russian primary. aluminium in 2015, up from 462,000 in 2022. Undoubtedly, Russian. metal represented 3 quarters of total imports.
The circulation has actually continued into the very first quarter of this year. Russian imports totalled 392,000 lots, matching the speed of the. previous two quarters.
China is the world's biggest manufacturer of primary. aluminium, its substantial smelter network is now running up versus. the government's capacity cap of 45 million loads.
With restricted scope to build new smelters, aside from to. replace older capacity, the country looks capable of absorbing a. growing amount of imported Russian metal. Rusal's output is. low-carbon aluminium produced from Siberian hydro-power, likely. making it appealing as a source of basic material for China's. items makers.
China's hunger for Russian metal uses a market outlet. for both brand-new production and older production that might. otherwise gravitate towards LME storage.
However, it stays to be seen whether that will avoid. more shuffles of the LME's Russian aluminium pack.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a. columnist .
(source: Reuters)