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BOJ's Ueda urges vigilance to counter the impact of Middle East War

Kazuo Ueda, the Bank of Japan governor, said that the economic and price development was roughly in line with the bank's predictions. He called for caution in assessing the impact of the escalating conflict.

The Middle East tensions have caused a sharp rise in crude oil prices and instability on the global financial markets. Ueda, who was quoted by Ryozo Himino in a speech that he read out, said: "We must be vigilant for future developments."

Markets were watching the speech closely for any hint that the BOJ would raise interest rates during its next policy meeting, which will be held on April 27-28. The markets are volatile due to fading hope of an early end to Iran's war.

Ueda said that a gradual economic rebound was keeping inflation?on track to hit the BOJ’s 2% target, with companies offering substantial pay increases during this year's salary negotiations.

He said that rising crude oil costs would harm Japan's economic growth. A protracted Middle East conflict could also affect factory production due to supply chain disruptions.

He said that while higher oil prices would increase energy costs in the short term, they could also exert upward and downward pressures to underlying inflation.

If the output gap widens, it could have a negative impact on underlying inflation. Ueda added that if the rising price of crude oil increases the public's expectations for medium- and long-term prices, this could increase underlying inflation.

Ueda stated that "given the lingering uncertainties over the Middle East situation, we will examine how future developments impact the economy, price?and financial condition, as well the risks and likelihoods of our baseline predictions materialising," Ueda on the outlook for monetary policies.

The BOJ's reference to Middle East unrest is a departure from its March guidance when it said that the BOJ would raise rates in accordance with the improvement in the economy and price levels.

(source: Reuters)