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GRAINS-Chicago Soy is slipping on profits ahead of revised US Biofuel targets
Chicago soybean futures fell on Friday due to profit-taking ahead of a White House announcement expected later that day?of revised U.S. Biofuel targets which is 'expected'to be?bullish?for soybeans. These are often used as biofuel feedstock. Wheat and corn prices were volatile due to the uncertainty surrounding the Iran War. Corn was also pressured pre-weekend by technical selling. As of 10:50 am, the most active soybean contract traded on the Chicago Board of Trade had lost 9 cents. It was now $11.64-3/4 per bushel. CT (1750 GMT). Randy Place, an analyst at Hightower Report, said: "We are a little weaker in beans. It's probably profit taking before the weekend, and headline risk?depending on how negotiations go and what happens with Iran." Investors have responded cautiously to the latest remarks made by U.S. president Donald Trump on ending the conflict that has lasted for a month. Trump said that on Thursday, talks to end the war are going "very smoothly" and he will delay the threatened attacks 'on Iran energy plants for an additional ten days. Oil prices rose on Friday, as traders weighed Trump's remarks against Iran's criticisms of U.S. proposals as well the ongoing disruption in energy markets. The price of grains and oilseeds has largely tracked the fluctuations in crude oil prices during the conflict. This is due to the use corn and soyoil as biofuels, and the knock-on effect on crop production that rising energy and fertiliser prices can have. CBOT corn fell by 2-3/4 cents, to $4.64 per bushel. Grain participants are adjusting positions ahead of Tuesday's U.S. Department of Agriculture acreage estimates. The war in the Middle East may increase the cost of fertilizer, which could lead to more acres being planted with soybeans. Fertilizer is needed to provide a significant amount of nitrogen for corn. The CBOT wheat price dropped by a half-cent to $6.04-12 a bushel. Prices have been supported by dry conditions in part of the U.S. wheat belt. The traders are closely watching the drought in the southern U.S. Plains. Hot weather this week could cause more crop stress, before rains arrive next week. Kansas Wheat Futures have seen sharper gains this week compared to Chicago wheat prices due to the parched conditions.
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India eases the rules to allow some state-owned firms to purchase critical equipment from China
After easing restrictions, India allowed some state firms, including Bharat Electricals and the Steel Authority of India, to purchase critical equipment from China on Friday, according to both a government source and a document. Last month, it was reported that India would ease restrictions on purchasing Chinese equipment after a deadly border clash in 2020. This would allow state-run coal and power companies to import limited quantities of Chinese equipment as shortages and delays grew. India has also since eased its investment restrictions on China. The government order stated that Bharat Heavy Electricals, India's biggest state-run power equipment manufacturer, can now purchase 21 types of critical equipment from China under the new?rules. Steel Authority of India has also been granted a similar authority to source critical components and coal-gasification equipment from other state-run companies, according to a government source. New Delhi tightened rules on Chinese investments and procurement in response to the deadly clashes between Indian and Chinese soldiers along the Himalayan border. However, a global realignment sparked by U.S. trade tariffs has led India to consider an adapted reset with China to maintain supply chains and attract investment. In August last year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi travelled to China for the first time in seven years. He met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and discussed improving ties. After this, New Delhi relaxed visa requirements for Chinese business professionals. According to the government order, which was issued this month and seen by, Chinese bidders who are participating in state contracts do not have to register with a government panel for political and security clearances. New Delhi eased its restrictions on Chinese investment in certain sectors earlier this month to help ease the capital squeeze. This marked a significant reset of our economic ties. (Reporting and writing by Sarita Changanti and Nikunj Ahri; editing by Jan Harvey, Susan Fenton and Shivangi Acharya)
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US consumer confidence hits three-month low after war fuels inflation fears
U.S. consumer confidence fell more than anticipated in March, reaching a three-month low as inflation fears and the war in the Middle East cast a cloud over the economy's?outlook. The decline reported by 'University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Friday' occurred across a range of age and political party groups. Middle- and high-income consumers, as well as stockholders, saw the largest decreases. Oil prices have risen by more than 30% since the U.S. - Israel war against Iran, which has lasted for a month. AAA data showed that retail gasoline prices rose $1, to average $3.98 a gallon. The S&P 500 index fell 6.7%. Although the correlation between consumer spending and sentiment is weak, rising gasoline prices, falling stock values and a stagnant job market could reduce consumption and impede economic growth. The wealthiest households are the ones who have been driving 'consumer spending. Oren Klachkin is a financial market analyst at Nationwide. He said: "We are looking for negative sentiment effects to add to the drag caused by lower real purchasing power, and?wealth effect and pull down consumer spending growth in the second half." The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 53.3, its lowest reading since last December. It was 55.5 in January. The economists polled at? had predicted that the index would drop to 54.0. It was 56.6 in Feb. The short-term economic outlook indicator fell 14% while the measure of expected personal finances for the year ahead dropped 10%. The survey found that long-term expectations declined at a more moderate pace. Joanne Hsu is the director of University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. She said that these patterns indicate that consumers are not expecting recent negative developments to continue for a long time. These views may change if the Iran Conflict?becomes prolonged or if increased energy prices are passed on to overall inflation. The S&P 500 index and Nasdaq Composite Index dropped to levels not seen in six months. The dollar was steady against a basket currency. The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds were mixed. Expectations of Inflation Inflation expectations for the next year, as measured by the survey, jumped from 3.4% in March to 3.8% in February. Consumers' expectations of inflation in the next five years dropped to 3.2%, down from 3.3% last month. This month, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark overnight rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. In updated projections, released along with the decision by U.S. Central Bank policymakers, they predicted higher inflation and only one reduction in borrowing costs for this year. John Ryding is the chief economist at Brean Capital. He said that, "the evidence appears to indicate that, for now, the inflation impact from high 'gas prices will be temporary. However, it would appear that year-ahead expectations are set to jump over 4% in April's preliminary report." From a Fed perspective the majority (of the policy-setting) committee may interpret this as meaning that rates should remain unchanged.
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Mercosur, Canada to reach free-trade agreement in April after talks
According to sources familiar with these talks, Canada and South 'America's Mercosur are moving towards a free trade agreement. It could be signed before the end of this year. One official from Canada, Argentina, and Brazil said that they expect the deal to be completed in 2026. Another stated that discussions are progressing well, and could be finished before September. An official from the Argentinean government said that an agreement would be expected to be signed by September or October. This will mark roughly a year after formal negotiations were restarted. A second diplomat based in Brazil also confirmed that negotiations were proceeding at record speed. He said the countries will probably reach an agreement this year. TRUMP TARIFFS HAS?SPURRED TRADE DIFFERENTIFICATION The Canadian diplomat in Brazil stated that Canada is intensifying its efforts to diversify its trade as a result of the uncertainty caused by tariffs imposed on U.S. President Donald Trump. South America, particularly Brazil, was a partner Canada could not do without. A deal with Canada could help Mercosur, which is a major exporter in the areas of beef, minerals and soy, gain access to more developed markets, and attract investment into key industries like mining. Sources in Brazil say that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will visit Brazil next quarter. Source: Although neither government intends to announce an agreement during the visit, this could serve as a push for a finalized one as soon as possible. The office of Mercosur in Montevideo has not responded to comment requests immediately. A spokesperson from the Canadian Trade Ministry said: "Negotiations for a free-trade agreement are progressing with momentum and we are encouraged by what is being achieved." Canada is committed in concluding a comprehensive, ambitious (Mercosur), agreement that will create real opportunities for Canadian workers, businesses and investors. On Friday, a Canadian official involved directly in the negotiations said that the Canadian trade minister, Maninder Singh Sidhu was "very eager" to complete the deal by the end of this year, and would be meeting his Brazilian counterpart at the World Trade Organization Meetings in Cameroon, on March 28. RENEWED MOMENTUM After months of technical exchanges, Canada and Mercosur decided last year to restart the talks which had been stagnant since 2021. Mercosur consists of Argentina, Brazil Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia, with Bolivia to be a full member by 2028. In March, Ontario trade officials, who are central to Canada's economic growth, visited Argentina and Uruguay to help lay the foundation for a future trade agreement and to show their support for increased bilateral trade. As part of his trip, Ontario's Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade, Victor Fedeli met with representatives of the technology and mining industries. This follows a trip to Brazil at the end of last year. Fedeli said Ontario is stepping up its outreach to South America in part due to the "Trump Acceleration" effect. He noted that approximately 80% of Ontario's trade with the United States. Fedeli told Montevideo in an interview that "we're building on this momentum". He added that the Canadian government was serious about diversifying from the U.S. After 25 years of negotiation, Mercosur concluded a trade deal with the European Union last January. The European Commission announced that key elements of the trade agreement, which have been controversial in Europe, would be applied on a temporary basis as of May 1. Lucinda Elliot in Montevideo and Lisandra Paraguassu, in Brasilia, with additional reporting from Lucila Sigal, in Buenos Aires, and Promit Mukherje, in Ottawa. Editing and production by Cassandra Garrison and Lisa Shumaker.
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After a cliffhanger, Slovenia's Prime Minister launches coalition negotiations
Robert Golob, Slovenia's prime minister, launched talks on a broad alliance with political party leaders on Friday following an inconclusive election. He pledged urgent measures to assist the Alpine country's?economy cope with rising energy costs. After the March 22 elections, Golob's Freedom Movement has won 29 parliamentary seats. This is one more than the right leaning Slovenian Democratic Party led by populist former premier Janez Jansa. Either party needs coalition partners in order to achieve a majority of 90 seats, which makes smaller parties potential kingmakers. Golob, the incumbent, has invited all the parties that have won parliamentary seats - except the SDS - to join GS as part of a government of unity. This is at a time when Europe is facing a 'new energy crisis because of the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. Three centre-right parties whose programs are similar to those of the SDS?rejected this invitation and said they would form a coalition with other centre-right parties. The GS would gain?40 of the parliamentary seats from the parties that supported it in the past, while SDS would get 43, three seats short of a majority. Jansa said that he would wait until the 'final results' before beginning coalition talks. Need for URGENT Economic Measures Golob stated that all those who attended the meeting agreed to work together to prepare urgent interventions to protect the economy and agriculture, as Europe prepares for a major crisis. Slovenia faces energy shortages and has been forced to limit fuel purchases at the pumps due to stockpiling. Participants at the meeting agreed that the top priority of any future government would be to combat corruption and stabilize the energy sector. Slovenia has adopted pro-European policy under Golob, with a focus on social reforms and aligning its foreign policies with European countries. Jansa is an ally of Hungarian Nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban, and a supporter of U.S. president Donald Trump. He wants to introduce tax breaks for businesses, reduce funding for welfare, media and to change the country's international orientation. SDS filed complaints to the electoral commission requesting a repeat of early voting because there were alleged irregularities. However, the commission dismissed the complaints?on Saturday. The election attracted international attention when?Golob claimed that "foreign agencies" were interfering after a'reported visit of Israeli private spy company Black Cube officials in December to meet Jansa, which Golob described as the "biggest controversy we have seen in Slovenia since independence". Jansa denied any wrongdoing, and Golob said he was trying to cover-up corruption within his own ranks. (Reporting and editing by Daria Sito Sucic)
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West African oil flow slows as sellers keep cargos in anticipation of the Hormuz shutdown, traders claim
Four crude traders said that despite the shortages caused by the Iran conflict, West African crude oil trading for April-loading cargoes had slowed. Sellers'reserved barrels for their refineries,' unless there were particularly high offers, they explained. This unusual development shows how the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has affected flows and trading on the global "physical" market. The conflict has shut down tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and Middle East producers Saudi Arabia Kuwait and Iraq have been forced to reduce output. Two traders reported this week that around 20 West African crude oil cargoes from the April loading schedule were available for purchase, despite the fact that the war had tightened up the global oil markets and schedules for the May cargoes are already out. One of the traders stated that they "might" sell if there is a good price, but don't have to. He added that owners of up to?15 cargoes could refine them in the event of a low bid. Prices for West African cargoes are rising, as they have in other markets. Refiners are grabbing up replacement barrels to replace the Middle East supply that has been disrupted. According to LSEG, Nigerian Bonny Light crude this week was valued at a premium of $7.50 per barrel over the Brent benchmark dated, which is the highest value since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2020. Not a typical overhang of cargo There are usually some barrels of West African crude oil that remain unsold, referred to as "overhangs," after the loading schedule for the next month is released. This is a sign of low demand. While waiting to see "if a bid from a refiner is strong", the owners of these cargoes could be cautious about selling in case "the market tightens" further, said another of four traders. West African oil cargoes are able to be sold on the international markets more than one time, after being allocated first?to a trading or international oil firm. According to traders, a surge in freight rates has also discouraged deals. Asia is the main market for West African crudes. However, freight rates on some routes have reached multi-year highs. One of the traders stated that "China still buys oil, but it is going for cheaper options" such as Russian or Iranian crude. According to Kpler data, China and India will account for almost 40% of West Africa's exports in 2025. Reporting by Robert Harvey in London and Seher Dareen, edited by Alex Lawler & Rod Nickel
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Fears of a Middle East war persist as oil prices and stock prices continue to rise.
Oil prices rose on Friday despite U.S. president Donald Trump's extension of the deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran did not directly indicate that it was willing to negotiate, but its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would continue to attempt to disrupt shipping throughout the region. All three major Wall Street indexes are trading lower, with shares in consumer discretionary, technology, and financial companies leading the declines. Energy, consumer staples, and utilities all gained. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped?0.90%. The S&P 500 fell 0.88%. And the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.33%. The STOXX 600 index fell 1%. The DAX in Germany fell by 1.4%, while the FTSE 100 in London dropped 0.3%. Overnight, MSCI's index for Asian stocks excluding Japan dropped by 0.8%. MSCI's global stock index fell by 0.93%. Matt Britzman senior equity analyst at?Hargreaves lansdown said that words alone were not enough to change the mood. "We need tangible evidence of progress." NASDAQ ENTERES CORRECTION TIERNE After dropping 2.4% Thursday, the tech-focused Nasdaq composite index is now in correction territory. It's down 11% since its record high close of late October. James St. Aubin said that the unbridled enthusiasm that pushed Nasdaq's stock market to new highs during the fourth quarter has faded as the macro-background deteriorates and the uncertainty surrounding the impact of AI on the tech industry clouds the horizon. Brent crude futures climbed 2.36% to $105.55 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Futures rose 3.56% to $97.84. Talley Leger is chief market strategist of The Wealth Consulting Group. He said: "Buy the dip. Chaos creates opportunities for patient long-term investor." BOND YIELDS ARE RISING Investors were concerned about a possible inflationary shock, which could force central banks into raising interest rates. As prices drop, yields also rise. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield, which sets the?tone for borrowing costs? around the world, has risen by more than 2 basis point to 4.4398%. Money markets see roughly 60% of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising rates this year. This is a dramatic change from late February, when traders bet on two rate cuts in 2026. Germany's 10-year Bond Yield rose to its highest level since 2011, at 3.13%. The U.S. Dollar was marginally higher in terms of currencies against major counterparts including the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and the Swiss franc. The dollar was up 0.06% at 159.865 yens and 0.26% at 0.79645 Swiss Francs. The euro rose 0.03% to $1.153075. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks currency against six other currencies, increased 0.07%, marking the fourth consecutive session of gains. Spot gold rose 3% to $4.510.09 per ounce.
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Chile's Codelco records $4.85 billion in pre-tax profits despite a'very challenging' 2025
Codelco (Chilean state-owned) is the largest copper producer in the world. It reported on Friday a profit before tax of $4.85 billion by 2025. The company reported that it had produced 1.33 million tons of pig iron through December, an increase of 0.5% over 2024. The state-run company also reported earnings before taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), which was $6.67 billion in 2025, a 23% rise compared to the year before. Codelco reported that production at its Ministro Hales and Radomiro Tomic mines, and at the Salvador mine, helped offset declines at Chuquicamata, Gabriela Mistral and due to geological factors. It also said that restrictions due to an accident at its El Teniente Mine, which resulted in a fatality, had been imposed. "We were able to maintain production during a difficult year. "We were really hit by what happened at El Teniente but we pulled together as team to get through it," Ruben Alvarado, CEO of the company said in a press release. Codelco has set its copper production target range between?1.33 to 1.36 million tonnes for this year, which is in line with the previously announced goal of 1.34million tons. A fatal accident in July at the company's flagship mine, El Teniente, had a severe impact on production. Codelco is evaluating the business plan and the future impact of the mine, according to the company. The company announced last month that production would be affected for the next 3 years. Codelco is struggling to recover its production levels in order to reach its target of 1.7 million tons by 2030 after reaching record lows between 2022-2023. Former executives and analysts have voiced concern over the discrepancies between the company's production figures for the period from the end of last year until the beginning of 2026. They question whether the company is achieving its targets. Chairman Maximo Pacheco stated in January that the company expects to produce about 10,000 tonnes more copper than it did in 2025. Jose Antonio Kast, the newly elected right-wing president of Chile, promised to audit and modernize company management during his election campaign. Kast will appoint the new chairman of the board in May. (Reporting and editing by Fabian Cambero, Natalia Ramos)
Fed's Barkin: "Fog" again obscures economic outlook
Thomas Barkin, the Richmond Fed president, said on Friday that the U.S.-Iran war and the rapid development of artificial intelligence have once again clouded the Federal Reserve's outlook. It is therefore appropriate to hold interest rates for the time being. "I cannot stand here and say that the fog is lifted, even though there has been a reduction in uncertainty regarding tariffs, immigration, and other policy changes. Barkin, in remarks prepared to be delivered at an East Tennessee State University economic forum, said that the fog had actually deepened and expanded. The Iran war caused a shock in oil prices, and AI provided large amounts of investment, but also promised to reshape employment markets and productivity trends. The Fed held interest rates at its meeting last week. "It felt prudent to keep rates the same and wait for more clarity about how we should lean?to support the economy moving forward," said Barkin. Barkin stated that he was hoping to see some of the fog burn off.
The spike in oil price has, according to investors, all but eliminated any Fed rate cut this year. Instead, the next move by the U.S. Central Bank may be an interest rate increase, as inflation continues to rise above the 2% target. Analysts say that the impact of oil prices on inflation depends on the length of the conflict, the price level, and the effect rising energy prices have on other costs, such as air travel and fertilizer for food production.
Barkin said that despite the fact that the U.S. economic demand has been strong, the oil crisis could cause consumers to change what they spend their money on and upset consumer sentiment.
Barkin noted that recent data showed that progress toward achieving the 2% target for inflation had stalled. "And that was even before the oil price surge."
The Fed's preferred inflation measure is currently about one percentage point over target. Reporting by Howard Schneider, Editing by Paul Simao
(source: Reuters)