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West African oil flow slows as sellers keep cargos in anticipation of the Hormuz shutdown, traders claim
Four crude traders said that despite the shortages caused by the Iran conflict, West African crude oil trading for April-loading cargoes had slowed. Sellers'reserved barrels for their refineries,' unless there were particularly high offers, they explained. This unusual development shows how the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has affected flows and trading on the global "physical" market. The conflict has shut down tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and Middle East producers Saudi Arabia Kuwait and Iraq have been forced to reduce output. Two traders reported this week that around 20 West African crude oil cargoes from the April loading schedule were available for purchase, despite the fact that the war had tightened up the global oil markets and schedules for the May cargoes are already out. One of the traders stated that they "might" sell if there is a good price, but don't have to. He added that owners of up to?15 cargoes could refine them in the event of a low bid. Prices for West African cargoes are rising, as they have in other markets. Refiners are grabbing up replacement barrels to replace the Middle East supply that has been disrupted. According to LSEG, Nigerian Bonny Light crude this week was valued at a premium of $7.50 per barrel over the Brent benchmark dated, which is the highest value since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2020. Not a typical overhang of cargo There are usually some barrels of West African crude oil that remain unsold, referred to as "overhangs," after the loading schedule for the next month is released. This is a sign of low demand. While waiting to see "if a bid from a refiner is strong", the owners of these cargoes could be cautious about selling in case "the market tightens" further, said another of four traders. West African oil cargoes are able to be sold on the international markets more than one time, after being allocated first?to a trading or international oil firm. According to traders, a surge in freight rates has also discouraged deals. Asia is the main market for West African crudes. However, freight rates on some routes have reached multi-year highs. One of the traders stated that "China still buys oil, but it is going for cheaper options" such as Russian or Iranian crude. According to Kpler data, China and India will account for almost 40% of West Africa's exports in 2025. Reporting by Robert Harvey in London and Seher Dareen, edited by Alex Lawler & Rod Nickel
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Fears of a Middle East war persist as oil prices and stock prices continue to rise.
Oil prices rose on Friday despite U.S. president Donald Trump's extension of the deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran did not directly indicate that it was willing to negotiate, but its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would continue to attempt to disrupt shipping throughout the region. All three major Wall Street indexes are trading lower, with shares in consumer discretionary, technology, and financial companies leading the declines. Energy, consumer staples, and utilities all gained. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped?0.90%. The S&P 500 fell 0.88%. And the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.33%. The STOXX 600 index fell 1%. The DAX in Germany fell by 1.4%, while the FTSE 100 in London dropped 0.3%. Overnight, MSCI's index for Asian stocks excluding Japan dropped by 0.8%. MSCI's global stock index fell by 0.93%. Matt Britzman senior equity analyst at?Hargreaves lansdown said that words alone were not enough to change the mood. "We need tangible evidence of progress." NASDAQ ENTERES CORRECTION TIERNE After dropping 2.4% Thursday, the tech-focused Nasdaq composite index is now in correction territory. It's down 11% since its record high close of late October. James St. Aubin said that the unbridled enthusiasm that pushed Nasdaq's stock market to new highs during the fourth quarter has faded as the macro-background deteriorates and the uncertainty surrounding the impact of AI on the tech industry clouds the horizon. Brent crude futures climbed 2.36% to $105.55 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Futures rose 3.56% to $97.84. Talley Leger is chief market strategist of The Wealth Consulting Group. He said: "Buy the dip. Chaos creates opportunities for patient long-term investor." BOND YIELDS ARE RISING Investors were concerned about a possible inflationary shock, which could force central banks into raising interest rates. As prices drop, yields also rise. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield, which sets the?tone for borrowing costs? around the world, has risen by more than 2 basis point to 4.4398%. Money markets see roughly 60% of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising rates this year. This is a dramatic change from late February, when traders bet on two rate cuts in 2026. Germany's 10-year Bond Yield rose to its highest level since 2011, at 3.13%. The U.S. Dollar was marginally higher in terms of currencies against major counterparts including the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and the Swiss franc. The dollar was up 0.06% at 159.865 yens and 0.26% at 0.79645 Swiss Francs. The euro rose 0.03% to $1.153075. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks currency against six other currencies, increased 0.07%, marking the fourth consecutive session of gains. Spot gold rose 3% to $4.510.09 per ounce.
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Chile's Codelco records $4.85 billion in pre-tax profits despite a'very challenging' 2025
Codelco (Chilean state-owned) is the largest copper producer in the world. It reported on Friday a profit before tax of $4.85 billion by 2025. The company reported that it had produced 1.33 million tons of pig iron through December, an increase of 0.5% over 2024. The state-run company also reported earnings before taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), which was $6.67 billion in 2025, a 23% rise compared to the year before. Codelco reported that production at its Ministro Hales and Radomiro Tomic mines, and at the Salvador mine, helped offset declines at Chuquicamata, Gabriela Mistral and due to geological factors. It also said that restrictions due to an accident at its El Teniente Mine, which resulted in a fatality, had been imposed. "We were able to maintain production during a difficult year. "We were really hit by what happened at El Teniente but we pulled together as team to get through it," Ruben Alvarado, CEO of the company said in a press release. Codelco has set its copper production target range between?1.33 to 1.36 million tonnes for this year, which is in line with the previously announced goal of 1.34million tons. A fatal accident in July at the company's flagship mine, El Teniente, had a severe impact on production. Codelco is evaluating the business plan and the future impact of the mine, according to the company. The company announced last month that production would be affected for the next 3 years. Codelco is struggling to recover its production levels in order to reach its target of 1.7 million tons by 2030 after reaching record lows between 2022-2023. Former executives and analysts have voiced concern over the discrepancies between the company's production figures for the period from the end of last year until the beginning of 2026. They question whether the company is achieving its targets. Chairman Maximo Pacheco stated in January that the company expects to produce about 10,000 tonnes more copper than it did in 2025. Jose Antonio Kast, the newly elected right-wing president of Chile, promised to audit and modernize company management during his election campaign. Kast will appoint the new chairman of the board in May. (Reporting and editing by Fabian Cambero, Natalia Ramos)
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Fed's Barkin: "Fog" again obscures economic outlook
Thomas Barkin, the Richmond Fed president, said on Friday that the U.S.-Iran war and the rapid development of artificial intelligence have once again clouded the Federal Reserve's outlook. It is therefore appropriate to hold interest rates for the time being. "I cannot stand here and say that the fog is lifted, even though there has been a reduction in uncertainty regarding tariffs, immigration, and other policy changes. Barkin, in remarks prepared to be delivered at an East Tennessee State University economic forum, said that the fog had actually deepened and expanded. The Iran war caused a shock in oil prices, and AI provided large amounts of investment, but also promised to reshape employment markets and productivity trends. The Fed held interest rates at its meeting last week. "It felt prudent to keep rates the same and wait for more clarity about how we should lean?to support the economy moving forward," said Barkin. Barkin stated that he was hoping to see some of the fog burn off. The spike in oil price has, according to investors, all but eliminated any Fed rate cut this year. Instead, the next move by the U.S. Central Bank may be an interest rate increase, as inflation continues to rise above the 2% target. Analysts say that the impact of oil prices on inflation depends on the length of the conflict, the price level, and the effect rising energy prices have on other costs, such as air travel and fertilizer for food production. Barkin said that despite the fact that the U.S. economic demand has been strong, the oil crisis could cause consumers to change what they spend their money on and upset consumer sentiment. Barkin noted that recent data showed that progress toward achieving the 2% target for inflation had stalled. "And that was even before the oil price surge." The Fed's preferred inflation measure is currently about one percentage point over target. Reporting by Howard Schneider, Editing by Paul Simao
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France seeks EU suspension of carbon tax on fertiliser amid Mideast War
Annie Genevard, France's Agriculture Minister, said on Friday that France would ask the European Union for a suspension of the carbon border tax imposed by the EU on fertilisers due to rising prices caused by the Middle East conflict. The U.S. and Israel's war against Iran, which began a month ago, has caused supply disruptions that have led to higher fuel prices. The EU's carbon-tax scheme, which was introduced in January, is blamed by growers for the rise in fertiliser prices. "On Monday, I will be in Brussels and officially ask the European Commission to suspend the carbon tax on fertilisers at least during this crisis," Genevard said to reporters?during a trip to a farm located in western France. Carbon tax is not the right time to raise fertiliser prices. On Monday, the EU's Agriculture Ministers will meet for a regular meeting. Carbon border?tax was introduced on 1 January and charges CO2 emissions fees for imports of steels, fertilisers, and other goods. This is to prevent unfair advantages over European products. In January, the French government, which had been facing regular protests by farmers over issues such as red tape and declining farm revenue, had already convinced the European Commission to exclude fertilisers from the "carbon tax". France and other countries have asked the EU to suspend the fertiliser tax. The EU has declined. The EU is currently negotiating a change that would allow for?temporary exceptions. This process could take several months. European fertiliser producers oppose the suspension of the levy. They argue that it protects local production from low-cost imports. France, the EU’s largest 'agricultural producer', announced earlier this week?measures, including loans and tax relief, for farmers struggling with mounting costs. Genevard announced that the French government would announce further measures later on Friday.
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Utility Entergy claims that the revised Meta data center deal will result in higher savings for customers
Utility Entergy announced that Meta Platforms would 'pay the full cost of service for the planned 'hyperscale data center in north-east Louisiana under a revised agreement. Early Friday, shares of the utility rose 4.8%. The company stated that the agreement will deliver nearly two billion dollars in savings to customers?over a period of 20 years?, on top of the $650 millions announced last year. Meta revealed plans to invest $10 billion in a hyperscale center in Richland Parish in northeast Louisiana. The project was announced by the Facebook parent in late 2024. The rapid expansion of data centres is being driven by the partnership between big technology companies and utilities in order to meet the soaring demand for artificial intelligence tools, cloud computing and other services. Entergy Louisiana has announced that it will build a large infrastructure for generation, transmission, and storage. Included in this are seven new natural-gas-fired power stations with a combined capacity of over?5,200 Megawatts. Also included are new high-voltage transmission systems, battery storage, and upgrades to nuclear power.
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US consumer sentiment falls to a 3-month low in march
A survey on Friday showed that U.S. consumers' sentiment sank to a?low of three months in March, as the war?in?the Middle East increased oil prices and sparked volatility on financial markets. This prompted a re-evaluation of?the prospects for?the U.S. economy. Surveys of Consumers at the University of Michigan reported that its Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 53.3 in December from 55.5 in January. The economists surveyed by?forecast the index to ease to 54.0. In February, it was 56.6. Joanne Hsu is the director of Surveys of Consumers. She said that consumers with higher incomes, stock wealth and who were affected by the volatile financial markets and escalating gas costs in the wake of the conflict in Iran, showed a particularly negative attitude. Since the U.S. launched an attack against Iran at the end February, the Middle East has been plunged into chaos. AAA data shows that retail gasoline prices have risen $1 per gallon to $3.98. The rise in oil prices has also led to a sell-off on the stock market, which economists warn will undermine consumer spending. Inflation expectations by consumers for the coming year increased to 3.8% this month, up from 3.4% in February. Consumers' expectations for inflation in the next five-year period dropped to 3.2%, down from 3.3% a month ago. Lucia Mutikani, reporting; Andrea Ricci, editing
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US appeals court voids $16.1 billion judgment against Argentina over YPF seizure
The U.S. Court of Appeals on Friday ruled against Argentina's $16.1 billion judgment for seizing the?state-owned oil firm YPF in 2012. This is a major victory for Argentine president Javier Milei as he tries stabilize Argentinean economy. The 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Manhattan issued the decision. Circuit Court of Appeals of Manhattan. Argentina was seeking to reverse the $16.1 billion award made in September 2023 to former YPF investors Petersen Energia Inversora, and Eton Park Capital Management by a lower-court judge for alleged losses related to YPF’s nationalization. During the oral arguments of October 29, the three judge?appeals panel questioned the reason why the case is in the United States when the underlying activity took place?in Argentina, and involved alleged Argentine laws. Burford Capital is a UK company that finances the litigation. Burford Capital will collect 'a large portion of any award which survives legal challenges. When the appeal was heard, the award had grown from $18 billion to include interest. Following the decision of the appeals court, shares of Burford dropped by more than 15 percent in U.S. stock trading. The appeal was about Argentina's 'decision' to expropriate 51% YPF shares from Spain Repsol without making a bid to Petersen or Eton Park, YPFs second and third largest investors. YPF was a private company since 1993. Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner was Argentina's President in 2012. She said that YPF needed to be renationalized as it did not produce enough natural gas and oil to meet the local demand. ARGENTINA SAID A LARGE AWARD COULD Cripple the economy In September 2023 U.S. district judge Loretta Preska of Manhattan found Argentina in breach of its obligations towards Petersen?and Eton Park and ordered it to pay them $14,39 billion and $1,71 billion respectively. These sums included $8.43 billion in?damages plus $7.67 million of prejudgment interests at an 8% interest rate. Argentina maintains that a large award could cripple the economy. It has struggled with high inflation and debt for years. According to the country, this $16.1 billion payment represents 45% of Argentina's budget for 2024. Petersen and Eton Park's lawyer defended the decision to pursue the case in United States, stating that Argentina's economic struggles as well as its "penchant for nationalism" could mean investors are not treated 'fairly' by the country's court system. Argentina also appealed Preska's order of June 2025 that it hand over the YPF share to partially satisfy the $16.1 Billion judgment. The 2nd Circuit has rescinded that order. Reporting by Jonathan Stempel, New York; editing by Rod Nickel
Dombrovskis: Iran war may cause stagflation in the EU
Valdis Dombrovskis, European Economic Commissar, said that the European Union is in danger of stagflation due to the rise in energy prices caused by the Iran War.
"The outlook is clouded by deep uncertainty, but it is clear that we're?at?risk of a shock of stagflation, which is a situation in which a slower rate of growth is combined with higher inflation," Dombrovskis said at a press briefing after a meeting between EU finance ministers about the surge in energy prices.
This is true even if disruptions to energy supply were to be?relatively short-lived. Our analysis shows that in such a scenario the EU's growth in 2026 may be 0.4 percentage points less than we predicted in our autumn forecast and inflation could rise up to 1 percentage point.
In November last year, the Commission predicted that economic growth in Europe would be 1.4% in 2026, and 1.5% by 2027. The euro zone economy is expected to grow 1.2% in 2026, and 1.4% in 2027. The Commission predicted that euro zone inflation would be around 2% by 2026.
If disruptions are more significant and last longer, negative effects on growth will be greater. Dombrovskis stated that growth could be 0.6 percentage points less in 2026 and 2027.
MEASURES FOR ENERGY CRISIS MUST BE TEMPORARY
Kyriakos?Pierrakakis, chairman of euro zone finance ministers, stated that based on the experience with the energy crisis caused in 2022 by the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, any measures taken to cushion the impact from more expensive energy should be temporary.
"Measures should be taken that are targeted, fair, and effective. Prioritising the most vulnerable businesses and households is important. He said that they must be quickly implemented, but only temporary. This will help to address the crisis, without creating bigger problems in the future.
He said that the crisis highlighted the need to invest in clean energy infrastructure and Europe’s energy independence.
Dombrovskis stated that any policy response by the government would impact budgets. He also pointed out that most EU countries have very little 'room for manoeuvre due to previous'shocks' and the urgent requirement for additional defense spending.
He said that a G7 meeting of finance and energy ministers on Monday would include more discussion on the coordination of a response. (Reporting and editing by Bart Meijer, Alex Richardson).
(source: Reuters)