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EU Wheat ticks up as China is in focus
European wheat futures rose in line with Chicago on Friday as traders looked forward to U.S. - Chinese trade talks and assessed reports that Chinese buyers are inquiring about imported wheat. The Paris-based Euronext wheat market closed 0.3% higher at 190.25 Euros ($221.87) per metric ton. It has remained within its small trading range this month. Chicago wheat was also slightly higher, moving away from the five-year low it reached last week. Euronext volumes were low as attention was focused on Donald Trump's upcoming trip to Asia, where he will hold a highly-anticipated meeting with China's Xi Jinping amid their trade war. The U.S. soybean market in China, the main export market for this crop, has been stalled. This is one of the topics discussed. A lack of evidence also limited the price support. There were rumors about possible Chinese imports of wheat from Europe and Argentina. A German trader stated that "this would be very welcomed for the west EU, after we lost export sales to Black Sea. But we need to see actual buying", a German said. French wheat was again overlooked in an Algerian imported tender this week amid ongoing diplomatic tensions, and traders are now watching to see if EU wheat at competitive prices can attract demand from elsewhere. According to traders, the Russian 11.5% protein grain for shipment in November was the least expensive at $248 per ton, including freight and cost. French, Ukrainian, and Romanian wheat was very close behind, at around $249 to $250 a ton, c&f Egyptian port, depending on Euronext, and currency movements. The traders noted that there was interest from within the EU to purchase feed wheat coming out of Spain and Ireland. A Spanish buyer wanted to buy 8,000 tons at 203 euros per ton, c&f North Spain, for delivery in November. A buyer in Ireland was also willing to pay around 203 Euros per ton for 7,000 tons of feed wheat for delivery in November/December. Prices were held back by the prospect of a large global wheat harvest. Favorable sowing conditions for the harvest of next year in Europe increased supply pressure. According to FranceAgriMer, by October 20th, the farmers in France had already sown more than half of the soft wheat expected area. This was ahead of the pace average for the last five years.
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The Russian rouble has surged after a symbolic rate cut
The Russian rouble gained against the U.S. Dollar and the Chinese yuan after the central banks cut their key interest rate 50 basis points and increased inflation forecasts both for this year and in 2025. By 1620 GMT the rouble had risen 1.9% to 79.74 US dollars in the over-the counter market, and almost 2% to 11.15 yuan at the Moscow Stock Exchange where the Chinese currency is the most actively traded. The statement's hawkish language on inflation and the small cut that some analysts called "symbolic" supported the rouble. It benefits from the high interest rates because keeping money in assets denominated in roubles becomes more appealing. The rouble strengthened during the week leading up to the meeting of the central bank despite the new U.S. sanctions aimed at Russian oil companies Lukoil & Rosneft due to Ukraine. Elvira Nabiullina, the Governor of the Russian Central Bank, said at a press conference held after the meeting that the rouble's stronger exchange rate was due to the lower demand for foreign currencies and the shrinking imports. She said, "We must admit our exchange rate is more volatile." (Reporting and Editing by Marguerita Chôy)
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Usiminas, a Brazilian steel company, expects a slowdown in imports and warns against China shipments
Executives at Brazilian steelmaker Usiminas said that they are confident in the anti-dumping laws of their country and expect a reduction in metal imports in the fourth quarter. In a recent earnings call, CEO Marcelo Chara stated that the company is "attentive" and "concerned" about the increase in imports coming from China. Usiminas posted a net loss for the third quarter of 3.5 billion reals ($647.68m) after taking an impairment loss of more than 2 billion dollars from revaluing its steelmaking assets. It said that without the impairment loss, it would have reported a net income of 108 millions reais as opposed to 185 million in the previous year. The quarter saw an increase of 9% in volume for iron ore, to 2.5 million metric tonnes. Steel sales dropped 2%, to 1.1 millions tons. The company expects lower sales of steel in the fourth quarter due to seasonality, but prices are expected to remain stable. The executives said that they are expecting positive cash flow for the next quarter, and are confident in further cost savings. Earnings were 434 millions reais for the quarter. This was up 2% compared to a year ago, but lower than the 458.7million reais that an LSEG survey had predicted. Analysts from BTG Pactual stated that the results were in line with the expectations but noted the "very challenging" environment for the steel division. Usiminas shares traded in Sao Paulo pared losses by more than 8%, to be about 1% lower at midday, underperforming Brazil’s benchmark Bovespa, which rose 0.3%.
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Carney is ready to resume US Canada trade talks that were halted by Trump due to Reagan's ad
Mark Carney, the Prime Minister of Canada, said that Canada is ready to resume talks with the United States after President Donald Trump suspended them over an anti-tariff ad issued by Ontario’s provincial government. Trump ended the talks Thursday after the video was released in which Ronald Reagan, a Republican icon and former president, said that tariffs lead to trade wars, economic disaster, and Republican icons. In a social media post made late at night, Trump branded the ad as fraudulent. Carney, since becoming Prime Minister, has made two trips to the White House to try to reach a deal on lowering import tariffs for steel and aluminum as well as autos that were imposed by Trump. These tariffs have hurt Canada's economic growth. CARNEY SAYS THAT HE WANTS 'CONSTRUCTIVE NEGATIONS' Carney, who is on his first official trip to Asia to diversify trade relations away from the United States, said that "my colleagues have worked with their American counterparts on detailed, constructive negotiations and discussions on specific sectors." Carney removed the majority of Canada's retaliatory duties on U.S. Imports that were imposed by his predecessor. However, White House advisor Kevin Hassett stated that Trump is frustrated with Canada because trade negotiations have not gone well. Hassett told reporters in the White House that "I think frustration has grown over time." The Canadians were very difficult to deal with. When asked for details, Hassett mentioned a "lack" of flexibility. In a separate Friday post, Trump accused Canada in trying to influence U.S. Supreme Court when it is preparing to hear arguments about the legality Trump's sweeping tariffs on the global market next month. Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation stated that the ad was "selective audio or video." The company said that it was looking into legal options. The voiceover of the ad is Ronald Reagan, who is a hero for many U.S. Republicans. He criticizes tariffs on imported goods, saying that they lead to job losses and trade conflicts. The video is made up of five sentences, which are spliced out of order from the five minute weekly address. The Foundation said that the ad "misrepresents" the Presidential Radio Address of Reagan (in 1987) and that the Government of Ontario had not sought nor received permission to use or edit the remarks. The advertisement does not mention the fact that Reagan used the speech to explain to the Japanese people that the tariffs that his administration imposed upon them were a tragically unavoidable deviation from his belief that free trade was the key to prosperity. Ontario Premier Doug Ford stated this week that an ad by his government's provincial, which was more than a month old, caught Trumps attention. Ford has repeatedly urged Carney for a more aggressive approach to Trump. Reagan said in the broadcast: "When someone declares, Let us impose tariffs against foreign imports', it appears that they are doing the patriotic act by protecting American products, and jobs." "And sometimes it works for a while - but for only a brief time." He says that: "...such trade barriers harm every American worker, consumer and business in the long-run. Trade wars also cause "markets to shrink and collapse. Businesses and industries close down. And millions of people are out of work." Canada reduced the tariff-free imports quotas on Thursday for General Motors, Stellantis, and cited their decision to reduce manufacturing in Canada. Trump's trade conflict has raised U.S. Tariffs to the highest level since the 1930s. He has also regularly threatened additional duties, causing concern amongst businesses and economists. The U.S. and Canada will review the 2020 continental free trade agreement next year. Carney acknowledged that the U.S. Trade Policy has fundamentally changed. The United States and Canada will benefit from the discussions. This is for the workers and families of both countries. (Reporting and writing by Kevin Liffey, Caroline Stauffer, Doina Chiacu and Steve Holland in Washington, and editing by Tom Hogue and Chizu Nomiyama)
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Reliance, India's largest oil buyer from Russia, says it will adhere to Western sanctions
Reliance Industries Ltd, the largest Indian buyer of Russian crude oil, said it would adhere to Western sanctions against Moscow, while maintaining its relationships with its current oil suppliers. Reliance is owned by Mukesh Ambani, a billionaire who operates the largest refining facility in the world at Jamnagar, in western Gujarat. The company has signed a long-term agreement to purchase nearly 500,000 barrels per day of crude oil, from Russian oil giant Rosneft. The European Union (EU), United Kingdom (UK) and the United States imposed a number of sanctions against Russia for its involvement in Ukraine. On Thursday, new US sanctions were imposed on Russia's top two oil producers, Lukoil & Rosneft. The U.S. gave companies until November 21, 2018 to end their business with Russian oil producers. The EU adopted its 19th set of sanctions, after previously stating that it would not accept fuel produced by refineries which received or processed Russian crude oil 60 days before the bill of lading. As is standard in the industry supply contracts are updated to reflect changes in market and regulatory conditions. Reliance will maintain its relationships with its suppliers while addressing these conditions," said the spokesperson in an email statement. The contract with Rosneft was not mentioned. On Thursday, it was reported that Reliance intends to stop importing Rosneft oil. Refiners also purchase Russian oil via intermediaries. Reliance previously stated that it would comply with EU guidelines regarding the importation of refined products. The refiner stated that its diverse crude purchases would help it navigate European Sanctions without specifying whether it would stop purchases of Russian oil at its 1.4 million barrels a day refining facility in western Gujarat. The spokesperson stated that Reliance was confident in the ability of its diversified crude-sourcing strategy to continue to provide stability and reliability to its refinery operations to meet the needs for domestic and international exports, including Europe. (Reporting and editing by Nidhi verma, Elaine Hardcastle, Joe Bavier)
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UN weather agency reviews its priorities after funding is cut
A spokesperson for the U.N. Weather Agency said that it plans to reduce some positions and review its priorities because dozens of countries including the United States are behind in their fees. This week, during a conference in Geneva, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which was founded in 1951 to provide global weather forecasts and coordinate data, established a task force for a review of early warning systems against deadly climate disasters. In August, the WMO began restructuring its budget to reduce costs in line with broader U.N. Reforms. This was done even though the rate of climate change is increasing, particularly in developing countries, where there are no early warning systems. According to a document viewed by, the WMO plans on cutting 26 positions and reducing travel. Clare Nullis, spokesperson for the company, said at a Friday press conference: "We need to ensure that we are ready for our future and we're able to face it." She said that a taskforce would be formed in January to "tweak", or adjust, the WMO’s work in light of current funding restrictions and new opportunities like the use artificial intelligence for weather prediction. A WMO document shows that the outstanding late payments amount to approximately 48 million Swiss Francs ($60m) at the end of August. This is equivalent to about two-thirds its annual budget. The U.S. is owed over 30 million Swiss francs. According to a spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, the administration is focused on making sure that taxpayer dollars spent at the U.N. serve U.S. national interests. The congress was attended by U.S. delegate. Washington, under President Donald Trump has announced that it will leave some U.N. organizations, including the U.N. backed Paris Climate Accord to slow down climate change. It is also late with paying other U.N. organisations. Trump has repeatedly questioned international organizations' effectiveness, costs and accountability, saying they fail to serve U.S. interest.
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After US inflation data, stocks rise and benchmark Treasury yields fall briefly
The major stock indexes rose on Friday, with U.S. shares hitting new highs. Benchmark U.S. Treasury Yields fell briefly as data revealed that U.S. Inflation rose less than anticipated last month. This reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates during its next policy meeting. The U.S. Dollar was unchanged, but oil prices rose further. They had already risen by 5% on Thursday, after the U.S. imposed sanctions against major Russian oil companies. The U.S. Consumer Price Index increased by 0.3% in September, slightly less than expected (0.4%), after rising 0.4% in August. "Today's data on inflation shows that we are not in a similar crisis to 2022. Prices are rising, but in a controlled manner. Callie Cox is the chief market strategist for Ritholtz in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Fed is expected to reduce rates two more times this year, with a quarter-percentage-point cut baked in for the October 28-29 meeting, according to LSEG calculations using rate futures. Donald Trump's announcement on social media, that he would end all trade negotiations with Canada, had a limited impact on the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar last fell 0.28% against the greenback, at C$1.4. Intel shares were up by 1.3% on Friday after the company's results beat expectations. This added to optimism in Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 346.77, or 0.74 percent, to 47.081.38, while the S&P 500 climbed 52.67, or 0.78 percent, to 6,791.01, as well as the Nasdaq Composite, which rose 251.42 or 1.10 percent, to 23,193.53. Apple and Microsoft are among the "Magnificent 7" U.S. firms at the heart of the artificial-intelligence boom that will report their earnings next week. The U.S. stock market has soared this year and some analysts are predicting a bubble. MSCI's index of global stocks rose 6.22 points or 0.63% to 1,001.31. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 0.1%. After a brief dip following the U.S. Inflation data, the U.S. Dollar was almost flat on Friday. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket including the yen, euro and other currencies) rose 0.03% at 98.97. Meanwhile, the euro gained 0.07% to $1.1625. The dollar gained 0.15% against the Japanese yen to reach 152.81. Data showed that the business activity in the Eurozone grew more rapidly than expected in October. Euro zone government bond yields rose. Treasury yields in the United States were a little mixed on Friday. The 10-year yield was briefly lower after the CPI report. The yield of the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes rose 0.2 basis points to 3.991% from 3.989% at Thursday's close. The yield on the 2-year note, which moves typically in line with Fed interest rate expectations, was down by 1.5 basis points to 3.467% from 3.482% at late Thursday. U.S. crude climbed 0.73% to a barrel of $62.24 and Brent rose 0.8% to $66.52 a barrel. Spot gold dropped 0.03%, to $4123.69 per ounce. Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch and Elizabeth Howcroft, both in New York, with additional reporting from Laura Matthews, also in New York, and editing by Toby Chopra and Joe Bavier.
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Argentina's farmers vote for Milei before midterm elections
Argentine farmers renew their confidence in Javier Milei, ahead of the midterm elections on Sunday. This is a vital sector for the government to generate foreign currency. The radical libertarian President, who hopes that his minorities will have a significant increase in representation in Congress, needs the support of farmers in Argentina. Since Milei took office nearly two years ago, he has received broad support from the agricultural sector. This sector shares his vision for unrestricted, deregulated markets. The government of Milei has taken steps to lower unpopular export taxes. In July, the government lowered the export tax for soybeans and corn - the two main crops of the country - by 20%. Milei promised to completely eliminate the taxes, even though they remain high at 26% and 9,5%, respectively. Martin Doffo is a 51-year old farmer from 25 de Mayo in the province Buenos Aires. "He wants the necessary path, tax reduction, lower export taxes, and work reform. All things we need." The 'Risk' of the Peronist The main opposition is the Peronist Party led by Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner. During her tenure, she clashed repeatedly with the agricultural sector over export quotas that were protectionist and price controls. "There are many farmers who do not want Kirchnerism back," said Horacio deciancio, a 70 year old cattle rancher in San Vicente, a small rural town near Buenos Aires. He said he was betting on Milei’s "market-based policies, where demand and supply can open up markets to the rest of the world." The farmers Milei spoke with also expressed their support for labor reforms that would increase the formal workforce, which he has stated he will push through the next Congress. According to them, the hiring of workers is complicated by bureaucracy under the current system. On October 26, half of Argentina's lower Chamber of Deputies (127 seats) and a third of its Senate (24 seats) will be up for elections. Currently, the Peronist movement is the opposition party with the largest majority in both houses. About half of the seats in the lower chamber are up for election. Milei's relatively young party, La Libertad Avanza has just 37 deputies, and six senators. Experts say that Milei's party would gain more than 35% in the polls, which is a sign of increasing support. (Reporter Maximilian Heath, Writing by Leila Miller Editing by Margueritachoy)
The FOREX-US Dollar is almost flat after falling on low inflation
The U.S. Dollar was almost flat Friday, after it had dipped following new inflation data showing that U.S. Consumer Prices increased less than anticipated in September. This kept the Federal Reserve on course to reduce interest rates next week.
Consumer Price Index increased by 0.3% in September and 3.0% over the past 12 months. The economists polled had predicted that the CPI would rise by 0.4% this month, and by 3.1% on an annual basis.
The U.S. Dollar Index was down last 0.003%, at 98.934, following earlier falls of up to 0.2%.
Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Capital Markets' chief market strategist, said that the headline was less rosy than expected. The dollar was sold by the news even though the market believed that the Fed will cut rates not only next Monday, but also in December.
The CPI report has been published despite the lack of economic data due to the shutdown. The Social Security Administration used this figure to calculate the cost of living adjustment for millions upon millions of retirees, and other benefit recipients. It was originally due on October 15th.
The euro was up by 0.06% and closed at $1.163.
A survey released on Friday showed that the services sector led the growth in business activity in the Euro Zone in October.
All Eyes on Trade
The trade war fears returned after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that all trade negotiations with Canada had been terminated due to an Ontario advertisement featuring a recording by Ronald Reagan, the former US President who spoke negatively about tariffs.
The Canadian dollar last fell to 1.403 US dollars, but the market's reaction was relatively subdued. Investors' attention remained focused on the upcoming meeting between Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping.
Some people have hoped that the Trump-Xi summit in South Korea will bring an end to the trade war which has been on and off between the two world's largest economies.
Ben Bennett, the head of Asia investment strategy at L&G Asset Management, said: "I believe expectations for the Trump-Xi summit are high, and there is a risk that the situation will de-escalate significantly following the face to face meeting."
Oil prices rose due to U.S. sanctions against Russian suppliers Rosneft & Lukoil for their involvement in the war in Ukraine.
This weighed heavily on currencies linked to oil imports including the yen. The performance of the yen is also tied to policies of Japan's newly appointed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Takaichi is widely considered a fiscal dove and a monetary dove.
The yen fell to its lowest level in two weeks and was last trading at 152.87 US dollars. The data released earlier on Friday indicated that Japan's core consumers prices were above the central banks 2% target. This kept expectations alive of a rate hike in the near future.
Government sources informed on Wednesday that Takaichi was preparing a package of economic stimulus likely to surpass last year's $92billion to help families combat inflation.
Sterling was up 0.08% at $1.334, after stronger-than-expected retail sales that were boosted by demand for gold from online jewellers. This week, it was down 1% after investors added to expectations of a rate reduction from the Bank of England in this year. (Reporting from Hannah Lang in New York, and Samuel Indyk at the Bank of England in London. Additional reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore. Editing by Nick Zieminski and Peter Graff.
(source: Reuters)