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Turkey's inflation forecast for the year may be lower than expected if oil prices remain below $65

Mehmet Simsek, the Finance Minister of Turkey, said that if oil remains below $65 per barrel this year then Turkey's annual inflation rate may be between 1 and 1.6 percentage points lower than official predictions.

Simsek, in response to a question about the impact of recent global trade actions on oil prices, said that persistent oil prices under $65 could mean Turkey's deficit of current account stays below 1.5%.

According to the government's mid-term program, the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP is expected to be 2% in this year. After a volatile Wednesday session, oil prices fell after fears of an intensifying U.S. China trade war and a possible recession overshadowed the relief that President Donald Trump had announced a pause in tariff increases against dozens countries.

Analysts believe that the U.S.-China trade war leaves oil demand growth in a state of uncertainty, with a greater risk for price declines.

Simsek, speaking at an OECD conference, also stated that there are downside risks for Turkish economic growth as well as budget revenue performance following recent market turmoil.

"But we can assure that we will adhere to our spending commitments...we'll achieve the final result of reducing inflation. He said that the main message was to bring inflation down.

The markets have been rocked ever since Trump announced last week his massive tariff plans. Analysts claim that the tariffs will be more restrictive than expected and push the global economy to a recession. (Reporting and editing by Daren Butler, Hugh Lawson, and Can Sezer)

(source: Reuters)