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MORNING BID EUROPE - Quiet markets and loud diplomacy : all eyes on Iran
Rocky Swift gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. As much of Asia was closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, all eyes were on the Middle East in the hope that talks between the U.S. Geopolitical tensions will be de-escalated by talks between the?U.S. Gold and oil prices fell after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he will be participating "indirectly," in the talks scheduled for Tuesday in Geneva on Iran's nuclear program. He also said he believes Tehran wants to make a deal. Following a holiday in the U.S. for Presidents' Day, the financial markets in Mainland China, Hong Kong and Singapore were closed. With little to no catalysts for the day, traders are looking ahead to key data this week including Fed minutes on Tuesday and U.S. Gross Domestic Product figures on Friday. This week, Britain, Canada and Japan will also publish their inflation data. The markets are now even more interested in these price readings after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates earlier this month, becoming the first major central banks, except for Japan, to do so after the post-COVID ease cycle. The RBA stated on Tuesday that it concluded inflation would remain stubbornly high even if interest rates were not raised. Early European trades saw the pan-regional Euro?Stoxx futures?drop 0.35% at 5,975, German DAX Futures slid 0.39% at 24,774, while FTSE Futures slipped 0.18% to 10,422. U.S. Stock Futures, S&P500?eminis, fell 0.46% to 6,819. Key developments on Tuesday that may influence the markets: – Earnings of Kerry?Group and InterContinental Hotels – Germany?CPI for January –?ZEW surveys in Germany for euro zone & Germany – UK jobs data Debt: reopening 2-year debt auctions in Germany, reopening 2-year and 6-year debt auctions in UK.
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Asia markets cautious in advance of US-Iran Nuclear Talks
The Asian financial markets were cautious on Tuesday, with a thinned-out trading session. Oil prices were mixed in anticipation of the nuclear negotiations between the U.S.A. and Iran that are due to start later in the day in Geneva. Tuesday, the markets in China, Hong Kong Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea and South Korea will be closed for Lunar New Year?holidays. U.S. market were closed on Monday due to 'Presidents' Day'. The Nikkei in Japan was down by 0.9%, while the S&P/ASX200 in Australia was up by 0.24%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell by 2.5 basis points, to 4.029%, on Tuesday. The yield on the 20-year JGB in Japan fell by 5.5 basis points, to 3.025%. The 30-year yield fell 6 basis points to 3,025%. Prices and yields are inversely related. The 5-year JGB auction earlier in the morning had a poor result, resulting in a 4.5 basis point drop to 1.625%. Nasdaq Futures are down 0.8%, while S&P 500 Futures are down 0.4%. The dollar index (a measure of the U.S. currencies against its major rivals) was mostly stable at 97.12 after a slight gain of 0.2% over night. On Tuesday, Japan's weakening economic situation was in the spotlight. This follows a day of much lower than expected GDP figures. On Monday, the country reported that its economy had grown by an annualised 0.2% during the fourth quarter. This was far below the 1.6% predicted as government spending dampened the activity. The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 153.05 dollars per dollar on Tuesday. Economists say that the weak numbers highlight the challenges facing Prime Minister Sanae Takayi and should encourage her to push for more aggressive fiscal stimuli. The BOJ will meet again in March to discuss rates, and traders predict only a'slim chance' of a rate hike. Last month, economists who were surveyed by the central bank expected it to wait until July to tighten policy again. In a research note, NAB analysts stated that the market had likely assumed the softer GDP figures in the fourth-quarter would encourage PM Takaichi to offer more fiscal support and lower the sales tax for food. The price of BOJ rate increases has been lowered after the release of the GDP data. Only 4 basis points were priced for the meeting in March and 16 basis for the April meeting. The central bank of Australia said that it was unsure if more tightening is needed, but had decided to raise interest rates this month. It had only priced in 4 basis points for the March meeting and 16 basis points for April. INVESTORS ARE CAUTIOUS ABOUT US-IRAN TALKS Oil prices were mixed ahead of U.S. - Iran talks aimed at reducing tensions in the face of anticipated OPEC+ production increases. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was?up by 0.95%, but this included the entire Monday's price movement as the contract didn't settle that day because of the U.S. Holiday. Brent crude futures fell 0.5% in the Asian session, after rising?1.33% on Monday. The semi-official news agency?Tasnim reported that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Navy held a drill on Monday in the Hormuz Strait, just a day before the renewed Iran-U.S. Nuclear Negotiations. This passage is responsible for around 20% of all global oil shipments. Analysts at ANZ said that "the market is still unsettled due to geopolitical uncertainty, and investors are cautious because of the pending U.S. - Iran and Ukraine negotiations in this week." In recent weeks, speculative positions have increased. The risk premium built into the oil price could quickly unwind if the tension in the Middle East eases, or if meaningful progress is made regarding the Ukraine War. Gold fell 0.82% to $4950 an ounce, as the stronger dollar made gold priced in greenbacks more expensive for holders other currencies. Silver spot was down 1.6%. (Reporting and editing by Kim Coghill, Saad Sayeed and Scott Murdoch)
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BHP's first-half profits beat record levels, boosting Australian shares
BHP, the world's biggest listed miner, soared to a new record after posting?stronger? first-half results. This set the tone for the earnings season in the resources sector. S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.2% higher on Tuesday at 8,958.90, adding to Monday's 0.2% gain. The U.S. market was closed on Monday for Presidents' Day and many Asian markets were closed for Lunar New Year. This meant that the focus remained on domestic earnings. BHP jumped 4.73% to a record A$52.74 after posting stronger-than-expected ?half-year profit, driven by copper earnings, lifting the mining subindex 1.3%. Rival Fortescue slipped 0.5%. Rio Tinto is due to report Thursday, and Fortescue the following week. Investors are looking for signs on iron ore demand and sector outlook. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that supply shortages will likely keep pressure on commodity prices. Tuesday's moves reflected a positioning of earnings gains against a backdrop of tightening supplies. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s most recent meeting show that policymakers believed inflation would remain high even without this month’s rate hike. They also expressed uncertainty about whether additional tightening was needed. Financials ended little changed, as gains by Westpac offset losses in the four major banks. Investors became cautious following a rally last week, Waterer attributed the move to profit-taking after bank earnings that had boosted?the subindex by 5.4%. Investors are now focusing on Thursday's employment data. It is expected to show that hiring has cooled and unemployment has increased slightly. This will be a critical read for the country's interest rate outlook. Gold stocks and energy companies fell by 1.2% and 0.4% respectively, limiting some losses. New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 fell 0.7%, to a close of?13.031.62, the lowest in over five months. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to keep rates unchanged at its first meeting of this year, which will be held on Wednesday. (Reporting by Kumar Tanishk in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee)
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Brent prices fall as traders focus on US-Iran talks
In Asian trade, Brent oil prices fell on Tuesday after investors?assessed the risks of a supply disruption following Iran's naval drills near Strait?of Hormuz just before?nuclear talks with the U.S.?later?in?the day. Brent crude futures fell 0.47% or 32 cents to $68.33 per barrel at 0430 GMT after a 1.33% rise on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $63.51 a barrel, up 62c or 0.99%. However, the price increase included the entire Monday's movement as the contract didn't settle that day because of the U.S. Presidents Day Holiday. There are many markets closed for Lunar New Year on Tuesday, including those in mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Monday that he will be "indirectly involved" in the Geneva talks. He also stated that he believes Tehran is interested in a deal. Trump stated that a regime change in Iran would be "the best thing to happen" at the weekend. Market?sentiment depends on the tone and progress in these negotiations... maintaining a geopolitical premium in prices, said Sugandha Sagandha, founder of SS WealthStreet based out of New Delhi. Sachdeva said that oil prices will likely remain volatile. They are more affected by the diplomatic signals than demand-supply fundamentals. Iran started a military exercise on Monday near the Strait of Hormuz. This is a crucial international waterway, and a route for oil exports from Gulf Arab countries, who have called for diplomatic solutions to the dispute. Iran, along with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Iraq, export the majority of their crude oil via the strait to Asia. Citi also said that if disruptions in Russian supply continue to keep Brent at $65-$70 per barrel in the upcoming months, OPEC+ will likely respond by increasing production from spare 'capacity. Three OPEC+ sources have said that OPEC+ will likely resume oil production increases in April as it prepares for a?peak summer's demand? and prices are boosted by tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Citi stated that "it is our base scenario?that both Iran-Ukraine and Russia-Ukraine deal happen by or during summer this year, contributing a drop in prices to $60 to 62/bbl Brent." (Reporting from Mohi N. in New Delhi, and Anushree. Mukherjee. in Bengaluru. Editing by Kevin Buckland.)
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Executives at Naturals say that if the Reliance stake talks fall through, they are looking to IPO in 2028.
Naturals, an Indian salon chain, is still 'in talks' with Reliance about a possible?stake-sale, but the discussions have slowed down as both sides are yet to converge on a deal structure. In an interview, Kumaravel stated. Naturals will go public in 2028, if the negotiations with Reliance do not bear fruit. Kumaravel said this on the sidelines of an event organized by Retailers Association of India (RAI) in Mumbai. He said that the talks, which were first announced in 2022, "stalled" after Reliance demanded a 51% share, while Naturals only wanted to sell 49%. This was to maintain control for several more years, before considering a bigger 'divestment. Kumaravel confirmed that Naturals was not in talks with any other investors. Reliance has not responded to a comment request. Naturals, with about 900 salons, is India's biggest organised salon chain, beating out competitors such as Lakme Salon and Geetanjali Salon in a market dominated by unorganised companies. The company reported a gross merchandise value (GMV) of 4.5 billion rupees (49.64 millions dollars) for fiscal 2025, and is expecting this figure to reach 6 billion rupees in the current financial year. This financial year, the company expects to reach 6? According to Ken Research, India's $10.8 billion beauty salon market is growing as younger consumers spend a greater amount on grooming. The?chain will add 100 salons in Pune this year. They are focusing on clusters of locations rather than dispersed ones. Reliance would be able to enter the salon and spa services through Naturals, as Indians are increasingly spending on skincare and makeup.
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Zivame, backed by Reliance, bets India's smaller cities with a fresh store blitz.
Zivame, a lingerie retailer backed by Reliance Industries, plans to open between 60 and 80 franchised stores in the next year. The company is looking to grow its business in 'India's smaller cities. Zivame, founded in 2011, was originally an online-only company. Since then it has expanded to physical stores. It now operates 174 exclusive brand outlets. Reliance Retail acquired a stake of the company in 2021, as part?of its wider push into apparel & innerwear. Zivame's next phase of expansion will be focused on India's Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities, where the demand is "increasingly similar to that of metro markets, as social media adoption accelerates," COO Kiruba Devi told delegates at a Retailers Association of India conference in Mumbai. She declined to provide a regional revenue split, but stated that the company had turned profitable during the last quarter. Without going into detail because the company now operates as a listed entity. Devi stated that the brand is exploring franchise agreements to expand overseas, initially focusing on Southeast Asia. She said that Southeast Asia was the "right place" for us to get involved immediately. Zivame has been in talks with the region and may launch a store by the end of next year. Zivame began as a lingerie aggregator, but has now expanded its product range to include shapewear, activewear, and loungewear. Devi stated that the company also plans to enter into children's clothing, but did not provide any further details. Reporting by Chandini monnappa in Mumbai and Praveen paramasivam; editing by Dhanya skariachan and Sonia cheema
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LME copper falls on stronger US dollar and thin Asia trade
Prices of copper weakened in the thin Asia trade on Monday as a stronger dollar and increased inventories, combined with weaker?demand, pushed down prices. Benchmark copper prices on the LME fell 0.5% to $12,782.50 per metric tonne at 0328 GMT. The London Metal Exchange's Wednesday settlement or rollover for maturing contracts will likely result in low volumes, and potentially volatile movements due to the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday. The dollar held gains for the day, as markets awaited the release on Wednesday of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting in January to get clues about the timing of possible rate cuts. Holders of other currencies will find greenback-priced metals more expensive. This could reduce demand and lower prices. On Monday, copper stocks in warehouses approved by the?LME increased from 211.850 to 7.975 tonnes. The highest level since April 2025. The metal stockpiles on the three largest metal exchanges in the world have also surpassed 1 million metric tonnes for the first time since more than 20 years, due to a buildup of inventory in response to a softening demand in China. Meanwhile, the world's top copper producer BHP Group reported a stronger-than-expected half-year underlying profit driven by copper, which, for the ?first time, surpassed iron ore in the top global miner's earnings, ?as prices ?for the metal surged on AI-fuelled demand. Other metals saw a 0.6% drop in zinc prices to $3,269.0 per ton, the lowest price for more than a month. Aluminium fell 0.3% to $3,041.0. This is the fourth consecutive session that aluminium has fallen. Lead fell 0.1% to $1.956, while tin rose by 1.5% to $45,225, and nickel remained at $17.100 per?ton. Tuesday, February 17, DATA/EVENTS 0430 Japan Tertiary?Act NSA Dec UK HMRC Payrolls Jan 0700 Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Current Conditions Feb (Reporting and Editing by Ishaan Nandy in Bengaluru)
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Exxon's local brand of petrol fined $11.3 Million by Australian court for misleading claims
The Federal Court of Australia fined 'Mobil Oil Australia' A$16m ($11.3m) for misleading claims about fuel sold in petrol stations located in certain parts of Queensland, said the country’s competition regulator on Tuesday. Exxon Mobil owns Mobil Oil Australia, which supplies petroleum, diesel and fuel products to retailers throughout Australia. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission took the local unit in 2024 to court. They alleged that the company misled customers about the fuel sold at six branded petrol stations located in Queensland. ACCC released a statement on?Tuesday stating that Mobil had falsely claimed in August 2020 to July 2024 that their "Mobil synergy fuel" contained certain additives. The incident occurred at nine Mobil petrol stations located in north and central Queensland, including the towns and suburbs of Aitkenvale and Barcaldine. The regulator said that the fuel sold at the Mobil petrol stations was substantially the same, or similar to unadditised gasoline available at other non Mobil retail sites. ACCC stated that the claims were made by a variety of signage and branding in?the nine fuel stations that promoted Mobil Synergy Fuel. Mick Keogh, ACCC's Deputy Chair, said that it was very likely some people filled up at these stations thinking they were getting a better quality of fuel for their vehicle engine. In a statement, the ACCC said that the firm's "conduct" was a violation of Australian consumer law. Mobil responded to an email from stating that it had taken steps to either not install'specific benefit claims' on bowsers in the relevant sites, or to cover up or remove these claims at sites where Synergy is not used. The company acknowledged that errors had been made. Reporting by Rajasik Mukherjee, Editing by Sumana Naandy.
Climate Challenge: Ten Years After Paris Agreement
New climate data released ten years after the Paris Agreement came into effect show that the world is warming faster than ever. 2025 will be among the hottest years on record, with ocean heat and sea level crossing new thresholds.
U.S. president Donald Trump is a "climate change sceptic" who has reversed a number of 'environmental' policies over the last year. He has also called climate change a hoax, which has led to environmental agendas being challenged around the world.
The annual United Nations meeting held in Brazil last summer saw a number of countries agree to more funding to help poorer countries adapt to extreme weather. However, the countries failed to reach an agreement on more specific plans to phase-out fossil fuels or to strengthen emission-cutting plans.
Global warming has increased significantly since mid-2010s, according to data from the world's most prestigious scientific agencies.
Emissions: A Widening Gap
Scientists say that the?World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Atmosphere Watch Network shows that concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous dioxide are climbing to record-highs, which is driving the temperature spike observed between?2023 and 2025.
Global carbon budget report says that fossil fuel emissions will reach a record high of 38.1 billion tonnes by 2025. This is due to the increasing use of coal, oil, and gas, despite the rapid growth in renewable energies.
The report, produced by a?international team of over 130 scientists?, estimates that global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels will increase 1.1% in the next year. This will push atmospheric CO2 levels to approximately 52% higher than pre-industrial levels.
Researchers say that only 170 billion tonnes more CO2 can be emitted at the current rate of emission if we want to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The United States, China, India and the European Union are all expected to see an increase in emissions, while Japan is projected to decrease, despite the fact that China has invested heavily in renewable energy.
TEMPERATURES - A DECADE IN ACCELERATION
NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies said that the Earth's surface was 1.19degC warmer in 2025 than the average for 1951-1980. This is a tie with 2023 for the title of 'one of the hottest years ever measured'.
WMO's consolidated data places 2025 as 1.44degC warmer than pre-industrial temperatures, making it one of the three hottest years in the last 176 years.
ARCTIC: RAPID COLLISION OF SEA ICE
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s 2025 Arctic Report Card confirms that the period October 2024 to September 2025 was the hottest since 1900. And the region continues warming more than twice as fast as the global average.
According to the U.S. national ice?Center, the sea-ice extent reached its lowest winter maximum in March 2025 at approximately 14.47 million sq km.
SEAS RISING AND HEATING THE OCEANS
According to NOAA, and Berkeley Earth, the oceans have absorbed "record" amounts of heat, setting a global record for upper-ocean temperature.
The sea level continues to rise, as measured by satellites and tide gauges. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts a rise of 0.20 to 0.29 meters by 2050 compared to 1995-2014.
(source: Reuters)