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Investors are watching US-China trade talks as gold prices rise on bets of rate cuts and broader uncertainty.
Gold prices increased by more than 1% on the first day of this week, boosted by expectations for further U.S. rate cuts, and by sustained demand from investors who were awaiting upcoming U.S. China trade talks, and U.S. inflation data due out later in the week. As of 1330 GMT, spot gold rose 1.6% to $4,318.50 an ounce. U.S. Gold futures for delivery in December rose 2.8%, to $4333.10 an ounce. Gold prices reached a record-high of $4,378.69 per ounce on Friday but ended 1.8% lower, their biggest drop since mid-May, after Donald Trump's comments eased concerns about U.S. China trade tensions. After Friday's steep sell-off, CPM Group managing director Jeffrey Christian said that political and economic concerns have driven prices higher. He added, "We expect the price to increase over the next few weeks and months. We wouldn't be shocked if it reached $4,500/oz very soon." After senators failed to break the impasse for the 10th consecutive time last week, the U.S. shutdown reached its 20th date on Monday. The shutdown also delayed the release of key economic data, leaving investors and policymakers with a data vacuum before next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting. The U.S. Consumer Price Index data that was delayed because of the shutdown is due on Friday. The traders have priced in a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates in December. Gold is a non-yielding investment that tends to perform well in low interest rate environments. Investors will also be looking for updates on U.S. China trade talks after Trump said on Friday that a meeting planned with Chinese President Xi Jinping will go ahead. "I wouldn't be surprised if gold reaches $5,000/oz next year." Christian stated that the price of gold would rise if political issues continue to worsen. Silver spot rose by 1.3%, to $52.53. After hitting a record-high of $54.47 on Thursday, the metal dropped 4.4% to $52.53 on Friday. Palladium rose 0.4% and platinum 1.3% to $1.630.24 an ounce. Noel John in Bengaluru, Pablo Sinha, Kavya Baliaraman and Susan Fenton are responsible for the reporting.
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Andy Home shares five key takeaways for London Metal Exchange Week.
Metals are a hot topic these days. Silver is catching up to gold in terms of record-breaking prices. Rare earths are at the center of the U.S.-China trade dispute, and the industrial metal supply chain is bending under the new global order of tariffs. The London Metal Exchange Week (LME Week) seminars and parties this year were full of interesting topics. The annual metals conference in London last week was a great success. Here are five key takeaways. GREEN PREMIUMS Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearings (HKEx), the owner of LME, surprised LME Week by announcing a new Dubai-based subsidiary. Commodity Pricing and Analysis Ltd. (CPAL), a subsidiary of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearings, will be the pricing administrator in the roll-out for "green" premiums. CPAL will use the LME's criteria for responsible sourcing and data from the digital platform Metalshub. Metalshub traded more than $220 millions of Class I refined Nickel in 2023. Since March 2024, it has traded 488 tonnes of greenish nickel. Green-ish nickel is defined as metal that has a carbon footprint of less than 20 metric tons for every ton of metal. Metalshub's prices will be used to create a nickel premium that is sustainable, and this template can then be applied to other metals like copper and aluminum. CPAL, assuming that premiums are always available, will "apply structured expertise judgment" if there are not enough trades. It's an interesting venture into the worlds of price reporting agencies like Fastmarkets Media, Argus and S&P Global Platts. The pivot towards Dubai is also significant. HKEx presents it as a means of enhancing the connectivity between China's metal markets and those in the Middle East that are growing rapidly. SMELTERS VERSUS MINERS "You can't be secure if all you have is stuff in the earth." Richard Holtum said that smelting was more important than mining at the LME Seminar. Holtum stated that if the West is to break China's monopoly on exotic metals like gallium and Germanium, they will need to build base metal smelters in order to produce these metals. This argument has been echoed by the Australian government which has committed A$135m ($87.4m) to keep Trafigura's two plants operational. A collapse in the smelting fee for zinc and copper is the backdrop. China's aggressive expansion in processing capacity has squeezed profit margins elsewhere. Spot copper treatment conditions are negative and eroding the revenue streams of smelters. Japan, Spain and South Korea released a rare statement on Wednesday to express deep concern over the current state of affairs in copper raw materials markets. As smelters consider bilateral agreements or tolling contracts, they may no longer be able to maintain the current benchmark pricing system. Everyone loves Doctor Copper Copper was voted the metal with most potential price growth at the LME Seminar. It always does. The bulls in London were in full force this year. The reasons for a higher price of copper include the reallocation of funds to hard assets, the dysfunctional raw material market and the low stock levels resulting from redistribution to the U.S. Even the self-proclaimed contrarians, such as Ken Hoffman from Traubenbach Associates, admit that in the long-term there is a robust growth of demand and a challenged supply. Wood Mackenzie predicts a 24% increase in global copper demand by 2035. Wood Mackenzie warns that data centers and other disruptive industries could "amplify the demand for copper and increase price volatility beyond expectation." The bull story is reinforced by the sharp increase in producer premiums for deliveries next year to European customers. Codelco, a Chilean producer, will now charge $325 per ton above LME cash price for 2026 term shipment. This is an increase from $234 in this year. Aurubis, a German producer, had announced an increase of $315 per tonne. This is a sign that we are in the tariff era. It's a sign of the times. ALUMINIUM: A CHANGE FOR THE BETTER Jorge Vazquez of HARBOR Aluminium, the head of the consultancy, graced the LME Seminar with a maroon sweater number. He surprised the audience by turning bullish about the light metal. Vazquez, who has consistently been bearish on aluminium in past years, now believes that the price will be above $3,000 per tonne, and possibly even $4,000 next year. This is compared to a current rate of $2,765 a tonne. The market has reassessed the dynamics of aluminum supply. Analysts are beginning to question whether the supply will be enough to meet demand for the first decade. GERMANIUM Theo Ruas is the head of global sales for specialty materials at Indium Corp. in the United States. He said that there was no germanium. China's chip-making materials exports have dropped this year, after Beijing tightened the export restrictions by the end of 2020. Project Blue says the price of this material has reached a 25-year high, but Ruas said that some buyers struggle to find it at any price. Gallium may be where germanium is now. Or any other mineral that is dominated by Chinese processing. Rare earths are a major source of friction between the U.S., China and other countries. Beijing recently added five more elements to the list of restricted exports. Most metal traders are unaware of the existence of holmium (also known as erbium), thulium (also called europium), and ytterbium. But they now hold the keys to global markets. These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.
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Russian steelmaker Severstal skips Q3 dividend amid weak market
Severstal, a Russian steelmaker, said that its board had recommended against paying a third-quarter dividend after the net profit fell dramatically due to a weakening economy in Russia. Severstal reported that its Q3 net profit fell by 62% on an annual basis to 12,99 billion roubles (US$159.9 millions). Profits for the first nine-months of the year fell 57%, to 49.7 bn roubles. Free cash flow also turned negative. Since last year, the demand for steel in Russia has declined due to a slowdown in activity among major customers such as the construction industry. Severstal reports that domestic steel consumption dropped by 15% between January and September. Severstal said that high interest rates and limited market financing for construction and engineering projects as well as the postponement or cancellation of infrastructure projects are affecting demand. The third-quarter revenue fell 18% due to lower steel costs. Sales rose by 3%, to 2.86 millions tons. In order to combat inflation, the central banks raised its interest rates last year. The rate was the highest since the early 2000s. The central bank began lowering the rate in June, and it has now dropped to 17%. The crisis in the Russian metal industry and the global metal industry will continue to worsen during the third quarter 2025. The domestic demand continued to decline in tandem with the further cooling down of the economy, said CEO Alexander Shevelev. Shevelev stated that the decision to not pay dividends allowed the company to "preserve financial resources to implement key strategic projects unconditionally in the future, and to ensure the long-term financial stability of the company during the difficult market period." In order to maintain financial stability in the face of weak demand, the company hasn't paid any dividends since 2024.
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Investors with $3 trillion of assets call on countries to end deforestation
Investors from around the world, who manage assets worth over $3 trillion, called on governments to reverse and stop deforestation by 2030. The statement was signed before a U.N. Climate Conference in Brazil. Belem Investor Statement for Rainforests is now open to sign up until November 1 and has attracted around 30 institutional investors, including Pictet Group, a Swiss private bank, as well as DNB Asset Management in the Nordic countries. Last week, a report found that the world has fallen far short of its goal to stop deforestation. In 2024, the area of England's forest will have been reduced by 8.1 million hectares (or 20 million acres). This is largely due to agricultural expansion and forestfires. The statement stated that "as investors, we have become increasingly concerned by the financial risks tropical deforestation poses to our portfolios." Jan Erik Saugestad is the CEO of Storebrand Asset Management, a Nordic firm. "Deforestation undermines natural systems on which global markets depend - from food and water safety to climate regulation." The European Union delayed its anti-deforestation legislation by one year earlier this year. This was due to opposition from the industry and trading partners, such as Brazil and Indonesia, who said that complying with these rules would be expensive and harm their exports into Europe. Ingrid Tungen is the head of Rainforest Foundation Norway's deforestation free markets. She said that Donald Trump, a climate sceptic, has also hampered action by rolling back support to global environmental efforts. She said that Trump had made it harder for managers and investors to consider climate change and biodiversity in a volatile environment. All the investors we have spoken to believe that there is a great risk if we do not take climate change and diversification into account in the long term. This will not only harm the markets and their profits, but also their morals. (Reporting and editing by Nia William; Sharon Kimathi)
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Stocks rise as Fed rate-cut bets calm earnings season fears
The world stock market held steady on Monday, as traders bet that the U.S. would cut rates and Japan would increase stimulus spending. They also balanced worries about regional banks in the U.S. with expectations of a boom in quarterly earnings for Wall Street's artificial intelligence giants. Wall Street futures trading implied that the blue-chip S&P 500 index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq would open 0.3% higher, as expected market volatility remained relatively high. Last week, the VIX index of expected volatility on S&P 500 reached its highest level since U.S. president Donald Trump announced punitive tariffs on April 2, 2018. It was stuck at 21 on Monday, still above the long-term average. Caroline Shaw, Fidelity's multi-asset manager, said that risks are piling up everywhere. There's...a lot of volatility in that." On Monday, there was a rotation to international stocks. European equities were 0.6% higher while Japan's Nikkei jumped 2.8% and set a new record. A coalition agreement had paved the way for Sanae Takaichi, a pro-stimulus politician to become Prime Minister. AI DRIVES WHILE CREDIT DOUBTS RISE Safe-haven Gold rose by 0.3% to $4,263 per ounce on Monday after a 6% jump last week due to the growing doubts surrounding the U.S. Credit Sector and the stress signals that are raging across regional banks in the United States. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warned last week about the "cockroaches", or credit market snags that would appear after two bankruptcys in the automotive sector in September. Investors said that such trends made it more important for AI titans, like Nvidia or Microsoft, to not slow down their capital expenditure plans or business investment plan for the new technology in future earnings. If the U.S. stock market begins to fall because the AI theme loses steam, then everything will be falling. Oliver Blackbourn, Janus Henderson's multi-asset manager, said: "You don't want to invest in stocks at that stage." As a percentage of wealth, U.S. household stock exposure is at a 75-year record high. Retail investor participation is driven by optimism over tech earnings while AI performance and that of the rest of market are divergent. Since July, the proportion of S&P500 stocks in a downward trend has nearly doubled. Investors are still nervous about the earnings of regional U.S. banks that will be announced soon. Some said tighter credit terms could reduce some of the froth in AI share prices, even if spending on data centres and advanced chips continues to boom. Jason da Silva, Arbuthnot latham's global investment strategy director and a steadfast supporter of U.S. stocks, said: "I would not say that it's early innings in big tech, but I still think there's enough scope for healthy return." According to LSEG IBES, analysts forecast an 8.8% growth year-on-year for the S&P 500 for this quarter. Tesla and Netflix could release earnings reports that will also affect sentiment. Meanwhile, consumer groups like Procter & Gamble or Coca-Cola may provide a glimpse of the U.S. economic health. RATE CUT BETS IN JOBS DATA VACUUM The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates next month by a quarter point and again in December. Its funds rate will drop to 3% the following year. Central bank chair Jay Powell, however, has not refuted this optimism. The Fed will go into its next meeting with limited information on the U.S. economic situation because the White House has been shut down since October 1, which means that the data it closely monitors about employment is not available. The core inflation data, due to be released on Friday, are expected to confirm that prices grew by 3.1% in September. This is still above the Fed’s average target of 2%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which is used to set global debt costs for corporates and households, has dropped more than 50 basis point since June, and last stood at around 4.01%. The Fed's cut theme also contributed to further depressing the U.S. Dollar against European and higher yielding currencies. On Monday, the euro edged up to $1.1662 after enduring pressure following last week's shock credit downgrade by Standard & Poor's of France. The dollar at least held up against the Japanese yen Monday as currency markets reduced odds of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike to just under 20%. They also viewed the central banks as more likely to support government initiatives than to fight inflation. Brent crude, the international benchmark oil, fell 0.8% to $60.8 a barrel. The OPEC+ plan for increased supply also weighed on commodities.
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Gold consolidates following record rally, US-China discussions in focus
Gold prices edged higher on Monday, after a record rally. Investors awaited clues from the upcoming U.S. China trade talks. As of 1139 GMT, spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,2562.84 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery climbed 1.6%, to $4280.40 an ounce. Silver spot rose by 0.3%, to $51.98, after a 4.4% drop on Friday. It had hit a record high at $54.47 the day before. Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank. He said that gold was still very bullish. TRUMP'S 100% CHINA THREAT AND EXPECTED FEDER RATE CUT Hansen said that the U.S. shutdown of government is still adding some support, while the U.S. China meeting scheduled for next week will be a focus. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said Friday that his proposal of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods would not be sustainable. He also added that he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping within two weeks. Gold, which hit record highs multiple times this year, most recently Friday at $4,378.69, gained more momentum last week when the U.S. announced steep tariff increases over China's controls on rare-earths exports. It fell by more than 1.8% after Trump's remarks. The U.S. CPI, which has been delayed because of the government shutdown in the U.S., will be released Friday, just days before the Fed policy meeting on October 28-29. Core inflation is expected to have remained at 3.1% for September. It is widely believed that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again by a quarter of a percentage point. In the third quarter, China's economy grew at its slowest pace in over a year. Hansen stated that "the weakness in the Chinese real estate market is a major source of support for gold." Palladium fell nearly 2%, to $1445.24 an ounce, and platinum dropped 0.8%, to $1596.95 an ounce.
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Gabes, Tunisia's protest hotspot, is now a 'nightmare for the environment'.
Under a smog-choked skies, the waters of Gabes are now darkened with rusty streaks. The air is filled with a suffocating smell, trees are dying and fish are disappearing. A generation ago, the town was known as an eco-jewel of green oases. Today, it is a toxic wasteland, rife in cancer, respiratory illnesses and bone diseases. Residents, environmentalists, and officials blame a state-owned phosphates-processing plant, Tunisian Chemical Group (CGT), whose smokestacks tower over litter-strewn beach. The anger over the plant has exploded this month and become one of the biggest challenges facing President Kais Saied since he came to power in 2019. The police used tear gas to disperse the protesters that stormed the plant, and thousands of people returned to the street on Wednesday. Contrary to other recent protests in Gabes, the demonstrators there are not calling for civic liberties but instead a change of conditions that they find intolerable. "The plant poisoned everything, including the trees, sea and people," Safouan Kbibieh said during a recent trip. "Even Gabes pomegranates taste like smoke now." Saied has called the conditions in Gabes an "environmental murder," but blamed previous governments and asked ministries to fix leaks of chemical substances. CGT has not responded to any questions. Tunisia's Health Ministry could not comment immediately. 'LET US BREATHE' The Gabes complex, built over a half century ago, is Tunisia’s largest phosphates-processing plant. It accounts for more than half of the country's output. The industry is a vital source of revenue for a government that has been plagued by high debt levels and slow growth. Residents describe a high price. It is difficult to find a family in the nearby towns of Ghannouch or Chott Essalem whose life has not been shaped by illness and loss. Rimel ElHaji, 45 described how, about a week ago, her daughter, nine, began gasping and walking more slowly, along with other students who were also affected. Haji explained that the girl's mother now helps her with simple movements, as a result of the neurological damage caused by suffocation. Haji said, "She is unable to walk more than 2 steps." "She is fading like a flower in the sun." Amina, a 53-year-old woman, lives two kilometers away in a brick house that is covered with dust and chemical residue. Her shelves are stacked with medications to treat her throat cancer and osteoporosis, which she first discovered six years ago. She says, "Doctors told me that I must leave this town in order to survive." Where would we go?" "This is our home." She said that six members of her family had been diagnosed with cancer. "This pollution is slowly causing us to die," she said. Maha Mahmoud, the neighbour next door, is clutching an inhaler that she refers to as her "daily food." "We don't ask for jobs or food anymore. We only want to dismantle chemical units. "Let us breathe", she said. Residents blame the plant as well for the collapse of fish stocks. Sassi Alaya said that he used to make 700 Tunisian Dinars ($240), but now he's lucky to get 20. He has been fishing for more than 25 years and now farms to feed his children. He said, "The sea was our livelihood and dignity." "Now it's a horror." "LIKE A WARZONE" According to a copy of the report, an expert audit conducted by CGT in July 2025 found "serious violations" with respect to international standards and national requirements. Audits found that the complex dumped between 14,000-15,000 tonnes of phosphogypsum, a by-product of phosphate processing, into the ocean and along the coastline every day. It also released high levels of ammonia and nitrogen oxides, as well as sulfates. The discharges "significantly damaged marine seagrass bed and led to desertification in large marine areas". The website of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency states that Phosphogypsum is a source of radium. Radium decays into radon, and both are radioactive, and can cause cancer. The EPA in the United States requires that phosphogypsum is managed as engineered stacks or piles to reduce public exposure to radon. It is difficult to link pollution in Gabes with the illnesses that residents suffer. Kraiem T. Taoufik is a local physician who confirmed that illnesses increased as the conditions worsened. He said, "The city is like a battle zone." "Where once we saw a few cases of cancer quarterly, they now appear every day." Residents live on top of a chemical bomb. Authorities have promised to renovate the plant, despite the tensions and the dwindling finances of the state. The plans have not been able to calm activists or residents who are at the breaking point. Kbibieh said, "For each ton of processed phosphate, one soul is lost." "But we will not abandon our land." "We'll fight until Gabes breathes again." Reporting by Tarek Amar, Editing by Alexander Dziadosz & William Maclean
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Hong Kong stocks rise on signs of eased Sino-US tensions
Hong Kong shares rose by the most since two months, while China's shares recovered after last week’s steep sell-off. Signs of easing tensions in trade boosted bets on President Donald Trump backing down from his tariff threat. Investors also have their eyes on the Chinese Communist Party's leadership meeting, which will map out China's 5-year vision. On Monday, authorities released economic data for the third quarter that were in line with expectations. The benchmark Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong closed with a gain of 2.4%. This is the largest percentage increase since mid-August. Tech shares led gains. Both the Shanghai Composite Index and China's blue chip CSI300 index rose by roughly 0.6%. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, said on Friday that he expected to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng this week to try and forestall a escalation in U.S. Tariffs on Chinese Goods which Trump claimed was unsustainable. The stocks of China and Hong Kong dropped the most last week since April, as Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. Yuan Yuwei is a hedge fund manager with Water Wisdom Asset Management. She said that Trump will certainly back down. He said that a hard decoupling would increase U.S. inflation, and cause pain to the average American. China's economy expanded 4.8%, as expected, in the third quarter. This was the slowest growth rate in over a year. From Monday to Thursday, all eyes will be on the fourth plenum. This is a meeting of CCP top officials that will examine a roadmap for China between 2026-2030. Megan Ie is a senior equity analyst with GIB Asset Management in London. She said that the five-year plan was China's strategic map. It "tells you how leaders will direct capital, talent, and subsidies." Investors would be well supported if policymakers had the same messages about innovation, self-sufficiency and commitment to capital markets. China's robot, artificial intelligence and chipmaking sectors recovered on Monday after recent corrections. The Hang Seng Tech Index in Hong Kong jumped by 3%. (Shanghai Newsroom; Editing done by Subhranshu Sahu and Lincoln Feast)
Australia's Weather Bureau Casts Doubt on La Nina Prospects
A senior climatologist at Australia's Weather Bureau isn't convinced that La Nina is forming, which could affect crop production and change rainfall patterns in parts of Asia, the Americas and Oceania.
La Nina and El Nino are both caused by a cooling or heating of the ocean surface temperature in the eastern and Central Pacific.
El Nino is the opposite. The former brings more rain to Australia's east, Southeast Asia, and India, with dryer weather in North America. Both can lead to flooding and hurricanes. Around this time of the year, models that forecast weather patterns tend to converge around a strong signal. However, there are currently many variations in these models.
She added, "This speaks to the fact there's still lots of uncertainty in the systems." The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that La Nina conditions are present, but in a weak form, and will likely persist until December.
Models from the Australian Bureau show sea surface temperatures dipping below a La Nina threshold in October, December and November by 0.8 degrees Celsius (1.44 Fahrenheit). Then they move back to neutral.
Gamble said that the cooling effect on cloud patterns and trade wind directions is not enough to give confidence in the existence of a La Nina.
The senior climatologist stated that "our model is probably among the weaker predictions for La Nina."
She said that although NOAA deemed the atmospheric response adequate, "We would like to see more."
Gamble said that, except for certain islands in the southwest Pacific region, there were no signs of typical La Nina rainfall patterns.
We aren't experiencing the same impact because we don't see a dominant La Nina pattern. She said that when you have a weaker sign, other influences can start to take over and possibly override the signal.
Between 2020 and 2023, three consecutive La Nina events brought record rainfall to Australia and droughts and heatwaves to parts of the Americas. Reporting by Peter Hobson
(source: Reuters)