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China's wheat production remains stable despite drought-hit harvest

China's summer wheat harvest 2025 was down by 0.1% compared to the previous year, according to official data released on Thursday. This is due to a severe drought that has affected key growing areas, including Henan Province, the nation's grain storage.

In the harvest of 2016, the world's largest wheat producer produced 138.16 millions metric tons. This is a slight decrease from 138.22million tons harvested in previous years. This includes both winter wheat and early spring wheat.

Winter wheat production, which was sown last autumn and harvested early this summer, dropped by 45,000 tonnes to 135,45 million tons. This represents 98% of total wheat output.

According to National Bureau of Statistics, the total wheat planting area dropped by 0.1% on an annual basis to 23,07 million hectares 57 million acres.

In a separate press release, the NBS stated that "this year, severe droughts occurred in major grain producing areas, such as Henan, and Shaanxi. This adversely affected summer grain production."

In May, these two provinces, which produce over a quarter (25%) of China's wheat, were severely affected by the hot and dry weather. Some farmers in Shaanxi, Henan and other provinces reported that their wheat production had been cut by up to half.

The NBS stated that timely irrigation efforts, as well as fewer natural disasters, helped keep the overall production stable.

Analysts said that even with a small decrease in production, China's imports of wheat are expected to be roughly the same as 2024 levels.

"China's exports will be restricted if output drops by 0.1%." It will be similar to the last year", said Ole Houe. Director of advisory services at IKON Commodities, Sydney.

Rosa Wang, an agroconsultant from Shanghai, JCI, said that domestic stocks were sufficient to curb imports.

Imports have fallen even more this year after falling in 2024. China was the top wheat importer worldwide in 2022-2023.

In the first five month of 2025, imports of wheat fell by 80% compared to last year. Australia is now the only major supplier due to the slump in demand.

Extra wheat

The NBS reported that China's total summer grain production also fell 0.1% from the previous year to 149.74 millions metric tons. Meanwhile, grain planting acres for the entire year decreased by 0.1%, at 26.58million hectares.

China's total grain production in the summer harvest also includes legumes, tuber crops, and other cereals like barley, oats, and buckwheat.

(source: Reuters)