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Gold rises on weaker dollar following Fed rate cut
Gold prices rose Thursday on a soft dollar after the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis point and announced a gradual ease for the remainder of the year. This boosted the metal's appeal. As of 1144 GMT, spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,667.12 an ounce. On Wednesday, prices reached a new record of $3 707.40. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell by 0.5% to $3701.00. Dollar pared its recent gains, and the dollar hovered around a two-month high. This made gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. The yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury notes also dropped. The dollar's weakness has returned, and this has supported gold prices. However, the rate decision was on the dovish end, as the statement or dot plots indicated that two rate cuts would be coming in the next year, according to Fawad Rasaqzada. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis point on Wednesday, and said it would continue to lower borrowing costs throughout the remainder of this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the action as risk-management in response to the weakening of the labor market. He said that the Fed is in a situation where it has "meetings by meetings" in regards to the interest rate outlook. In a low-interest rate environment, non-yielding gold bullion is a good investment. It's a safe haven during times of geopolitical or economic uncertainty. Independent analyst Ross Norman stated that "the bull run in gold is still very much present and we are likely to see record highs persist." According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 90 percent chance that the Fed will cut rates again by 25 basis points at its next meeting in November. ANZ said that it expects gold will outperform the early stages of the easing cycle. The bank said that the demand for safe haven assets in a geopolitical environment of uncertainty is likely to increase investor demand. The price of spot silver was up 0.5% at $41.84 an ounce. Platinum gained 1.9%, to $1,390.43, while palladium fell 1% to $1,142.19/oz. (Reporting from Ishaan Mukherjee, Anmol Choubey and Anushree mukherjee in Bengaluru, and editing by Jan Harvey Frances Kerry, and Bernadette baum)
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Exxon asks for political support from the US to overturn EU climate law
Exxon Mobil has intensified its attacks on a European Union law on corporate sustainability and taken their concerns directly to U.S. president Donald Trump. They warned that the regulation would lead to more companies leaving Europe. Last year, the EU adopted its corporate sustainability due diligence (CSDD) directive. This mandates that companies fix any human rights or environmental issues in their supply chains or risk a base fine of 5% on global turnover. The European Commission, in response to the criticism of businesses and German and French leaders that the law will harm the competitiveness of the EU, proposed a series of changes to the law earlier this year. In an interview, Exxon CEO Darren Woods said that it would not be enough and called for the law to completely be revoked. Woods stated that he had spoken to Trump, and other members of Trump's administration who are involved in trade and EU policy. The administration also expressed concerns over CSDDD during trade negotiations. Washington and Brussels are still at odds over the simmering dispute, which has recently led to the US considering sanctions against EU officials for separate tech legislation. Woods noted that Woods' oil company has closed, sold or exited 19 of its operations because, according to him, red tape was impeding the business. This is yet another piece of legislation which would either accelerate this incentive or cause businesses to reduce their activities in Europe. The European Commission didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. Woods added that an exorbitant fine of 5% on global sales would "break the bones" of Exxon. Last year, the top U.S. oil producers' sales totaled $339 billion. U.S. legislators are also doing their part to help. In March, Senator Bill Hagerty of Tennessee introduced a bill to protect American companies against being forced to comply to CSDDD. Next month, EU legislators and countries will begin negotiations to change the policy. Environmental activists are appalled by the move to weaken corporate accountability. Exxon announced on Thursday that it will also be pausing its investment of 100 millions euros ($118) in European Plastic Recycling due to separate EU draft rules. Woods expressed his hope that U.S. legislators would make progress in addressing CSDDD. However, he has been disappointed with the response from EU regulators so far. He said, "There's some movement but we need resolution sooner than later." Sheila Dang reported from Houston, Kate Abnett contributed additional reporting and Nathan Crooks edited the story.
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Kuwait Oil Minister expects demand to increase after US rate reduction
Kuwait's oil minister Tariq al-Roumi stated on Thursday that he expected higher demand for oil following the U.S. rate cut this week, especially from Asian markets. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the first since December. He also said that he expects new sanctions against Russia to have a positive effect on the oil price. Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the U.S. is prepared to impose new energy sanctions against Russia, provided all NATO countries stop purchasing Russian oil. Eight OPEC+ member countries agreed on September 7, to increase output by 137,000 bpd for October. This is a continuation of the policy of the group since April, which has been to increase production after years of cutting to support the oil markets. Al-Roumi stated that despite the agreement to increase output, "prices were more than satisfactory". He added, "We expected the worst, but everything is fine." The oil market is confusing and difficult to predict. The Minister made these remarks at an event marking the start of oil production at Kuwait Oil Company's Mutriba Field, which is targeting a light oil output between 80,000 to 120,000 bpd. At the event, KOC CEO Ahmad Al-Aidan said: "This step will help Kuwait achieve its strategy of reaching a production capacity for oil of 4 million barrels per day by 2035." The current production capacity is less than 3 million bpd. Reporting by Ahmed Hagagy, Writing by Tala RAMAdan and Ahmed Elimam, Editing by Bernadette BAUCH and Jan Harvey
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Dollar firms after Fed lowers rates and copper falls
The copper price fell on Thursday, as traders took profits after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that there would be no further aggressive easing. The benchmark three-month price of copper at the London Metal Exchange fell 0.4% to $9,960.50 a tonne as of 0940 GMT after hitting a low for a week on Wednesday, $9,925. Powell, in his press conference, reacted against the idea of larger cuts. Dollar index rose by 0.1%, to 96.98, on the back of Mr. Trump's remarks. However, it is still down 10.6% for this year. The dollar index is still down around 10.6% this year. Dan Smith, managing Director at Commodity Market Analytics said that the rate decision made on Wednesday was a key driver behind copper's drop. He also pointed out a technical charting pattern called a "triple-top". Smith stated that there has been a significant amount of resistance in the copper market around $10,160. Smith said that the price has turned three times at this point in recent months, which indicates the current momentum will be to the downside. The rest of the base-metals complex was mostly in the red. Aluminium fell as much as 0.6%, to $2,665.50 per ton. This is a new low for the week. It was also down 0.2% at 0940 GMT. The cash aluminum contract premium is added to the contract for three months On Thursday, the price of a ton had dropped to $4 from $16 on Tuesday. Lead was unchanged at $2,012 a ton. Nickel and tin also fell. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi, Harikrishnan Nair, Ed Osmond and Harikrishnan Nair; Additional reporting and editing by Amy Lv & Lewis Jackson)
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Central bank of UAE says that the UAE economy will grow by 4.9% in 2025 due to higher oil production.
Central bank of the United Arab Emirates said that the economy will grow by 4.9% in 2025 compared to an earlier forecast. This is due to increased oil production and growth in non-hydrocarbon sectors. In a quarterly report, the bank stated that it expects hydrocarbon production to increase in accordance with OPEC+ quotas by 5.8% by 2025 and 6.5% by next year. The report stated that "this real adjustment in hydrocarbon production is expected to offset the negative impact on government revenue of the decline in crude oil prices, creating a ripple effect for non-hydrocarbon sector." The UAE is a major oil exporter and has intensified plans to diversify their economy. In the first quarter, the non-hydrocarbons sector accounted for 77.1% total GDP. The central bank projects that the non-hydrocarbon GNP will grow by 4.5% and 4.8% respectively in 2025, and 2026. This growth is likely to be boosted indirectly by the higher hydrocarbon growth through increased investment, government expenditure and confidence. The UAE economy grew by 3.9% in the first three months of the year, led by a non-hydrocarbon expansion of 5.3%. This was driven by manufacturing, financial services and construction sectors. Reporting by Rachna uppal; editing by Andrew Cawthorne
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Stocks and the dollar rise after Fed cuts, but now focus is on BoE
The dollar and stocks both rose on Thursday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its interest rates for the first time this year. Meanwhile, French politics kept the markets in France jittery. And the pound remained steady ahead of the Bank of England's rate announcement. The Fed's steady-as-she-goes-message from what had been a politically charged meeting lifted both the pan-European STOXX 600 and Wall Street futures 0.5%, despite an initially mixed reaction from U.S. traders on Wednesday. Asia also rallied over night. Chinese stocks reached a decade-high as local chipmakers rejoiced at reports that U.S. giant Nvidia was banned in China. South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan's Nikkei ended all more than 1% higher. The dollar's rise to nearly 0.2% on the currency market may also have been a relief for firms that export to countries other than the United States after a recent plunge to its lowest level in three-and-a-half years. The Fed's "dot plot", which is closely monitored, had indicated that two additional rate reductions would be made over the remaining two meetings of this year but only one in 2026. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also moderated expectations by saying that the central bank didn't need to act quickly, though analysts admit this could change. Richard Cochinos, RBC Capital Markets, said: "We look beyond the volatility of one or two days to find underlying trends." In this case, we expect a weaker U.S. Dollar," Cochinos said. He pointed to the expectation of U.S. interest rates falling to 3% in 2013. The euro was largely unchanged at $1.1825, and the sterling was at $1.36. It is widely expected that the BoE will keep UK interest rates at 4% in the future. The main focus will be whether the British central banks slows down the pace of its 100 billion pounds a year reduction in government bond holdings in response to the recent volatility on UK bond markets. The BoE poll conducted in August showed that economists expected the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to reduce the pace of monetary policy to 67.5 billion pounds (92.2 billion dollars). This is a larger drop than the 72 billion pounds predicted by the BoE poll. In response to a 25 basis point rate reduction announced by its central bank earlier, the Norwegian crown softened just a little. The Norwegian crown was close to its three-year high against the dollar, and was at a two-month high when compared with the euro. New Zealand's Dollar fell after the data showed that the economy of the country shrank much more than expected. FRENCH FOCUS After the release of August's weaker than expected labour market data, the Australian dollar fell 0.4%. The bond markets are still on the rise, with the yield of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropping to 4.06%, and the two-year rate, which is rising with traders' expectation of higher Fed Funds rates, at 3.53 %. The benchmark yield for the Euro Zone, Germany's 10-year bond, fell by 0.5 basis points, to 2.67%. However, attention was again focused on France, as its bond yields moved above Italy's. Brent crude oil fell 0.2% to $67.87 a barrel. Gold, a safe haven, rose 0.2% to $3,665 an ounce.
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Russia announces changes to its budget aimed at decreasing oil revenue dependence
The Russian Finance Ministry announced on Thursday a new measure that it claimed was designed to shield the state budget against oil price fluctuations as well as Western sanctions targeted at Russian energy exports. The government is lowering the price cutoff for oil that oil revenues are deposited into the fiscal reserves fund. This will ensure the fund has enough money to replenish it. At a public meeting, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated that "to make our finances more robust, we propose a reduction of dependence on different constraints, whether they are price-related or volume related, in the budget’s reliance on revenues from oil and gas". Siluanov's new measure, which he sought to reinstate the budget rule, after it had been abandoned following the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, is a victory. However, Russian media claimed that he wanted a larger reduction. The budget is more vulnerable to a drop in oil prices if the rule isn't in place. Siluanov stated that the price cutoff would be reduced by $1 per year, bringing it down to $55 a barrel in 2030. Currently, the cut-off price for barrels is $60. The draft budget will be presented to the parliament on 29 September. Currently, the fiscal reserve fund has approximately 4 trillion roubles (48.25 billion dollars) available. The government plans to use 447 billion roubles (5.39 billion dollars) of the fund to cover a part of the deficit expected to exceed 1.7% GDP. Siluanov stated that the new measures will allow the state budget to reduce the share of revenues from energy to around 22% in the first eight month of 2025, down from 25%. ($1 = 82,9000 roubles). (Reporting and editing by Andrew Osborn. Darya Corsunskaya.
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Dollar gains after Fed Chair's remarks as gold falls further from records
Gold fell further from its previous session record, as the dollar rose after the U.S. Federal Reserve took a more measured approach to future easing in response to a widely anticipated 25 basis point interest rate reduction. As of 0801 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.1% to $3,657.21 an ounce. Prices reached a record-high of $3,707,40 on Wednesday before falling 0.8%. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell 0.7% to $3691.0. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis point on Wednesday, and said it would continue to lower borrowing costs throughout the remainder of this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the action as risk-management in response to a weakening labour market. He said that the Fed was in a situation where it is "meeting by meeting" in regards to interest rate outlook. Peter Fertig, an analyst at Quantitative Commodity Analysis, said that there was a "bit of disappointment" in the gold market, as the market had expected the Fed to reduce the opportunity costs for gold holdings (more than they did). Gold became more expensive for holders of other currencies due to the 0.2% increase in the dollar. On Wednesday, it fell to its lowest level in more than three-and-a half years. In a low-interest rate environment, non-yielding gold bullion is a good investment. It's a safe haven during times of geopolitical or economic uncertainty. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 90 percent chance that the Fed will cut rates again by 25 bp at its next meeting in October. ANZ said that it expects gold will outperform the early stages of the easing cycle. The bank said that the demand for safe haven assets in a geopolitical environment of uncertainty is likely to increase investor demand. The SPDR Gold Trust is the largest gold-backed ETF in the world. Its holdings dropped 0.44% on Wednesday to 975.66 tons from 979.95 on Tuesday. The price of spot silver increased by 0.1%, to $41.70 an ounce. Platinum rose 2%, to $1,389.57, and palladium remained unchanged at $1,154.0/oz. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Jan Harvey)
What Trump 2.0 could mean for trade, migrants, Ukraine and variety programs
Donald Trump's 2nd presidential term might have substantial implications for U.S. trade policy, environment modification, the war in Ukraine, electric vehicles, Americans' taxes and prohibited migration.
While a few of his campaign propositions would require congressional approval, here is a summary of the policies Trump has actually stated he will pursue after he takes workplace on Monday.
MORE TARIFFS
Trump has actually stated he will release executive orders on his very first day in office to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico if the two U.S. neighbors do not clamp down on the circulation of drugs into the U.S. and people entering the country unlawfully. The tasks might badly hinder the highly incorporated economies, where car parts can cross borders several times before last assembly. Trump has actually also called for an international tariff of a minimum of 10% on all goods imported into the U.S., a move he says would get rid of a. $ 1-trillion annual trade deficit. Critics say it would cause. higher prices for American customers and draw vindictive duties. on American exports.
Trump has said he should have the authority to set higher. tariffs on countries that have actually positioned tariffs on U.S. imports,. often grumbling about Europe's higher tasks on autos. At. times on the project path, he threatened tariffs of 200% on. cars made in Mexico, particularly if Chinese automakers launch. production there. Trump has actually targeted China in particular in an effort to decouple. the world's 2 biggest economies. He has actually proposed tariffs of. 60% or more on all Chinese imports, far above his first-term. tariffs, in part to phase out imports of Chinese electronics and. pharmaceuticals. He also has stated he wishes to prohibit Chinese. companies from owning U.S. real estate and facilities in the. energy and tech sectors.
MASS DEPORTATIONS
Trump has actually pledged to restore his first-term policies. targeting unlawful border crossings and to forge ahead with. sweeping brand-new restrictions.
He has pledged to restrict access to asylum at the U.S.-Mexico. border and to embark on the biggest deportation effort in. American history, which would likely activate legal obstacles. and opposition from Democrats in Congress.
He has said he will use the National Guard, and, if. needed, federal troops, to attain his goal, and he has. not dismissed setting up detention camps to process individuals for. deportation. Trump has stated he would look for to end automated citizenship for. children born to immigrants. While such a relocation would run versus. the long-running interpretation of the U.S. Constitution's 14th. Modification, Trump has stated he would think about trying to press. through a new change that would accomplish his goal. He is expected to attempt to withdraw protected legal status for some. populations such as Haitians or Venezuelans, but would attempt to. look for a congressional offer to protect Dreamers - kids of. moms and dads who came to the country unlawfully.
Trump states he will reinstitute a version of his travel ban. policy that restricted entry into the U.S. of people from. Muslim-dominant countries and other nations, and triggered. several legal fights throughout his first term. A few of Trump's earliest appointments showed a seriousness to. follow through on his migration program. Trump has named a. border czar, Tom Homan, and will make Stephen Miller, the. designer of his immigration strategies, a White Home deputy chief. of staff.
DRILLING AWAY. Trump has vowed to increase U.S. production of nonrenewable fuel sources by. relieving allowing and expanding drilling on federal land. He has. said he would support prevalent oil drilling in the Arctic. National Wildlife Sanctuary in Alaska. Trump has actually vowed to create a National Energy Council to. coordinate policies to improve U.S. energy production, led by his. pick for interior secretary, former North Dakota Governor Doug. Burgum.
Whether the oil market follows through and raises. production - which is currently running at record highs - remains. to be seen.
Trump is most likely to again pull the U.S. out of the Paris. climate offer, a framework for lowering international greenhouse gas. emissions, and would support increased nuclear-energy. production. He would also roll back Democratic President Joe Biden's. electric-vehicle requireds and other policies targeted at reducing. auto emissions.
Trump has argued the U.S. needs to increase energy production. to be competitive in developing artificial-intelligence systems,. which take in big quantities of power.
TAX RELIEF. Along with his trade and energy programs, Trump has guaranteed to. slash federal guidelines that he states limit task development. He. has pledged to extend personal income-tax cuts that he signed. into law in 2017 however which are because of end on Dec. 31, and he. has actually proposed a variety of individual and business tax cuts. beyond those enacted in his very first term.
Trump has actually promised to decrease the corporate tax rate from 21%. to 15% for companies that make their products in the U.S.
. He has actually said he would look for legislation to end tax of. suggestions and overtime incomes to help waiters and other service. employees. He has pledged not to tax or cut Social Security. benefits.
Trump also has actually stated he would press the Federal Reserve to. lower interest rates - however would stop brief of requiring it.
The majority of, if not all, of his tax propositions would need. congressional action. Budget plan experts have cautioned that the bunch. of tax cuts would swell the federal debt by trillions of. dollars over a years without cost savings elsewhere.
GETTING RID OF VARIETY PROGRAMS. Trump has promised to require U.S. colleges and universities to. protect American custom and Western civilization and to. purge them of variety programs. He said he would direct the. Justice Department to pursue civil rights cases against schools. that participate in racial discrimination.
At K-12 schools, Trump would support programs allowing. moms and dads to utilize public funds for private or religious. guideline.
Trump has actually likewise suggested abolishing the federal Department. of Education and leaving states in control of schooling.
NO FEDERAL ABORTION RESTRICTION
Trump appointed three justices to the U.S. Supreme Court who. were part of the bulk that reversed the court's landmark. Roe v. Wade choice that ruled there was a constitutional right. to an abortion. He likely will continue to select federal. judges who would promote abortion limitations.
At the exact same time, Trump has said a federal abortion ban is. unneeded which the concern must be dealt with at the state. level. He has argued that a six-week ban preferred by some. Republicans is overly severe and that any legislation should. include exceptions for rape, incest and the health of the. mother.
Trump has recommended he would not look for to restrict access to the. abortion drug mifepristone after the U.S. Supreme Court declined. a challenge to the federal government's technique to managing it.
He supports policies that advance in vitro fertilization,. birth control and prenatal care.
A PUSH TO END WARS. Trump has actually been vital of U.S. support for Ukraine in its war. with Russia, and has stated he might end the war in 24 hr if. chosen - although consultants concede it will likely take months. if not longer.
He has actually recommended Ukraine might need to yield some of its. territory if a peace deal is to be struck. Trump and his pick for national security adviser, U.S. Representative Michael Waltz, have slammed the Biden. administration's choice in November to allow Ukraine to use. U.S.-provided missiles to strike within Russian territory.
Trump has likewise said that under his presidency the U.S. would. fundamentally reconsider NATO's function and NATO's objective.
Trump named U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, a China hawk, as his. secretary of state, charged with performing his diplomacy. goals. Trump has backed Israel in its fight versus Hamas in Gaza and. hailed a ceasefire deal revealed on Wednesday that might see. the eventual withdrawal of Israeli soldiers from Gaza and the. release of captives recorded by Hamas.
Trump is most likely to promote historical normalization of. relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, an effort he made. during his 2017-2021 presidency and which Biden has likewise. pursued. He has urged the U.S. to stay out of the dispute in Syria that. has seen long time leader Bashar al-Assad deposed.
Trump has actually suggested building an iron dome - a. missile-defense guard comparable to Israel's - over the entire. continental U.S.
Trump has actually likewise floated the concept of sending out militaries into. Mexico to battle drug cartels and utilizing the U.S. Navy to form a. blockade of that country to stop smuggling of the opioid. fentanyl and its precursors. His transition group has actually been drawing up lists of capacity. high-ranking U.S. military officers to fire as part of a purge. of the Pentagon of those believed to be disloyal to Trump.
EXAMINING OPPONENTS, ASSISTING ALLIES. Trump has promised sometimes to utilize federal law enforcement. agencies to examine his political foes, including election. officials, attorneys and celebration donors. Trump tapped previous Florida Attorney general of the United States Pam Bondi as his. chief law officer and previous national security assistant Kash Patel as. his option to lead the FBI. Both have expressed sympathy for. Trump's desire to precise retribution on some of his critics,. although Trump of late has said that he will not direct them on. how to do their jobs.
He has actually said he would think about shooting a U.S. lawyer who did. not follow his regulations - which would make up a break with. the longstanding U.S. policy of an independent federal law. enforcement apparatus. Trump has said he will likely pardon many of those who have actually been. convicted of crimes in connection with the Jan. 6, 2021, attack. on the U.S. Capitol. In December, he recommended members of the. congressional committee that examined the attack needs to be. imprisoned.
In addition to criminal examinations, he has recommended. using the federal government's regulatory powers to punish those he. consider as critics, such as television networks.
PURGING THE FEDERAL BUREAUCRACY
Trump would seek to decimate what he terms the deep state--. career federal workers he states are clandestinely pursuing. their own agendas-- through an executive order that would. reclassify thousands of employees to allow them to be fired. That. would likely be challenged in court. He has actually said he will set up an independent federal government efficiency. panel headed by billionaire fan Elon Musk and former. presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy to root out waste in the. federal government. The federal government currently has guard dogs such as. the Office of Management and Spending plan, and inspectors general at. federal companies.
Trump would punish federal whistleblowers, who are. generally protected by law, and would institute an independent. body to keep track of U.S. intelligence companies.
(source: Reuters)