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Argentina's Milei set to clinch trade surplus record on grains, energy exports

Argentina most likely logged the biggest trade surplus in its history in 2024, a Reuters expert survey released on Friday revealed, on the back of libertarian President Javier Milei's quote to boost grains and energy exports in his first complete year in office.

Milei, who has been president since December 2023, swore to make Argentina a net energy exporter utilizing the large shale reserves in the Patagonian Vaca Muerta area. Grains exports, assisted by some easing of currency controls and much better weather condition, likewise rose.

Argentina is the world's leading exporter of processed soy oil and meal, the third biggest for corn and an important wheat and beef manufacturer. It has significant lithium reserves needed for electrical batteries, as well as shale gas and oil.

Analysts surveyed forecast the year-end trade surplus between $18 billion and $19 billion, blowing past the previous record of $16.89 billion set in 2009.

The December regular monthly data, set to be published by the national data company on Monday, was approximated to be a $921. million surplus, according to the average of the Reuters poll.

From January to November, Argentina logged a $17.20 billion. trade surplus, main data reveal, reversing the $7.94. billion trade deficit in the first 11 months of 2023.

TRADE SURPLUS LIKELY TO NARROW IN 2025

Milei's drive to turn Argentina's economy around through an. austerity push has also brought inflation down to close the year. at 117.8%, after an April peak of nearly 300%.

Analysts state Argentina's trade surplus is most likely to narrow.

From here on out, we'll likely see a situation in which. imports grow substantially, stated Federico Gonzalez, a financial expert. at Empiria Consultores.

Imports have currently started to tick up as the Argentine peso. has enhanced versus other local currencies, such as the. Brazilian real, and as the Milei administration has actually raised some. taxes on particular products.

The government this week announced strategies to raise. anti-dumping constraints on imports to reduce prices on. goods such as home devices.

In 2025 we may see the trade balance come in at simply 40% of. the 2024 surplus, stated Milagros Suardi, financial expert at consulting. firm Eco Go. That would include a recovery in imports, as. well as an economic recovery and enhanced exchange rate.

(source: Reuters)