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Dryness threatens Australia's canola output, wheat seen recuperating

Dry weather in Australia's. west and south is threatening to diminish crops, with canola. output likely to drop this year, however sufficient rainfall in eastern. states is anticipated to boost the nation's overall wheat output,. analysts said.

Australia is a significant farming exporter due to its big. landmass and small population. International rates of wheat and. other grains have risen in recent weeks as the world supply. outlook tightened up.

More than a month into the winter planting season, it's a. tale of two Australias, said Rod Baker at Australian Crop. Forecasters in Perth.

In Queensland and the majority of New South Wales, things are. looking fantastic, he stated, forecasting greater wheat and barley. plantings and better yields than in 2015.

But farmers in Western and South Australia are feeling. significantly nervous as they plant seeds into dry earth.

Rain in the coming couple of weeks will be essential to get. the crop out of the ground and encourage the remaining crop to. be planted, Baker said.

Planting of canola, which need to be planted early to achieve. optimum yields, is taking a struck with some farmers rotating to. wheat and barley that tolerate later on planting, analysts said.

The area planted with canola across the country will shrink 6% to. 3.1 million hectares with production likely to fall 5% from last. year to 5.4 million metric heaps, Baker stated.

The wheat location should, however, increase 1% to 13.5 million. hectares with production increasing 11% to 29.3 million metric. loads, he said, while the barley location is set to grow 4% to 4.5. million hectares and output to rise 7% to 11.2 million heaps.

THERE'S STILL TIME

Harvests in Western and South Australia could be their. least expensive in years if dry weather continues, said Stefan Meyer, a. grains broker with StoneX in Sydney.

Western Australia, which typically produces around 10. million lots of wheat, is on track for a roughly 4.5 million load. harvest, he said. South Australia, which need to produce around. 5.5 million loads, is presently appearing like it will produce 4. million lots at the most.

But Australia has in the past seen strong production in. years that have actually begun dry.

There's still time for rain to come, stated Ole Houe,. director of advisory services at IKON Commodities in Sydney,. predicting a wheat harvest of more than 30 million heaps and. canola production of 5.7 million heaps.

Australia's weather bureau projections below par rainfall. in South Australia and average rainfall in West Australia up until. well into June but wetter conditions after that.

This might all be reversed extremely quickly, stated Andrew. Whitelaw at agricultural consultants Episode 3 in Canberra.

We have seen seasons, such as the 2011/12 season in Western. Australia, when it appeared all was lost, then rains in July. turned it into what was at the time record production, he stated.

(source: Reuters)