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Record US oil and gas production keeps rates under pressure: Kemp

U.S. production of oil and gas set new seasonal records in December, capping off an unmatched year, according to information published by the U.S. Energy Info Administration (EIA) on Thursday.

Production continued to climb even as costs dropped from the extremely high levels seen in mid-2022 after Russia's intrusion of Ukraine, adding to the build-up of inventories.

On the oil side, overall production of crude and condensates increased to 413 million barrels in December from 376 million in the final month of 2022 ( Petroleum supply month-to-month, EIA, Feb. 29, 2024).

Production was performing at 13.3 million barrels daily (b/d). in December, an increase of 1.2 million b/d (10%) from a year. previously.

The prior-year comparison was flattered by the extreme cold. which triggered prevalent well scorn and a quick however sharp. drop in production in late December 2022.

For the year as a whole, however, output increased to 4,721. million barrels in 2023, up from 4,347 million in 2022, and had. doubled given that 2012.

Chartbook: U.S. oil and gas production

Inflation-adjusted front-month U.S. crude futures balanced. $ 72 per barrel (44th percentile for all months given that 2000) in. December, below a current high of $121 (82nd percentile) in. June 2022.

Oil-directed drilling has actually slowed in line with the fall in. prices, with a hold-up of around five months, which is common. offered the time taken for part-drilled wells to be completed and. rig hire contracts to end.

The number of rigs drilling for oil averaged 501 in. December, below 623 in December 2022, according to oilfield. services business Baker Hughes.

There was no comparable slump in output as rigs. boosted efficiency by concentrating on only the most appealing. crews and websites structured the drilling process.

Horizontal well sections became even longer, maximising. contact with the reservoir and allowing more oil to be recovered. from each well.

In the short-term, the U.S. oil industry has become proficient at. producing more oil, at lower prices, with less drilling crews.

In the medium term, it is unclear if the market can. continue raising performance at the same rate or whether even more. output development will depend on greater costs.

If production is currently starting to flatten out in response. to lower prices, the evidence remains inconclusive so far.

U.S. GAS PRODUCTION

Dry gas production climbed to a seasonal record of 3,300. billion cubic feet (bcf) in December from 3,107 bcf a year. earlier ( Natural gas month-to-month, EIA, Feb. 29, 2024).

For the year as a whole, production struck a record 37,883 bcf,. up from 36,353 bcf in 2022, and had doubled considering that 2006.

Inflation-adjusted futures prices plunged to $2.55 per. million British thermal systems (fourth percentile for all months. given that the start of the century) in December.

Prices have actually given that been up to approximately just $1.80 last. month, the most affordable in real terms considering that a minimum of 1990, when the. futures agreement started trading.

Similar to oil, the variety of rigs has actually fallen, however there has. been no decrease in production, leaving the marketplace constantly. oversupplied.

The variety of rigs drilling for gas averaged 119 in. December, down from an average of 162 in September 2022, the. recent peak.

But production has continued to climb up for the exact same reasons. as oil-- concentration on the most promising websites, structured. work practices and longer well laterals.

Due to the fact that lots of gas is, output has actually likewise continued to rise. recuperated as a co-product from brand-new and aging oil wells.

Production has actually increased much faster than domestic and export. need, triggering a big accumulation of stocks and. intensifying the down pressure on costs.

Working gas stocks in underground storage were 461 bcf (+24%. or +1.25 basic discrepancies) above the long-term average on. Feb. 23.

The surplus has swelled from 64 bcf (2% or +0.24 standard. variances) at the start of the heating season on Oct. 1.

Strong El Nino conditions in the Pacific have actually resulted in a. much warmer than typical winter throughout the northern United. States, cutting gas usage.

Relentless over-production and the delayed action to. falling rates has turned a warm winter season into a prodigious glut. of gas.

Associated columns:

- El Niño presses genuine U.S. gas prices to multi-decade low. ( February 16, 2024)

- Increasing U.S. oil production annoys OPEC? cuts (February. 1, 2024)

John Kemp is a market expert. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)