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McGeever: The world braces for the escalation of Trump's Canada Tariff Stand-off
The renewed trade spat between U.S. president Donald Trump and Canadian prime minister Mark Carney occurs at a critical time for both North American nations - as well as the global economy. Mistakes between the G7 neighboring nations could have wide-ranging effects on the economy. After bilateral talks broke down on Friday, the Trump administration imposed 50% duties on a range of Canadian products on Saturday. These 'levies' may seem modest at first glance, as they apply to just?5.5%, or $20 billion worth of goods, that Canada exports to America. Oxford Economics says that if all else is equal, this will increase the U.S. tariff rate on Canadian imports from 5.1% to 6.9%. This is a small issue. The potential for an escalation of violence and its damaging effects is high. Canada is America's largest single trading partner, surpassing China. Total trade between the countries reached $715 billion in 2013, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Canada also bought more U.S. products and services last year than any other country. Both sides appear to have already dug in. Carney has promised dollar-fordollar retaliation and Trump announced on Monday that 50% tariffs will be imposed on Canadian vehicles, trucks, and automotive parts on January 1 if a deal is not reached. A prolonged spat could cause serious damage to Canada's economy and even trigger a recession. The U.S. consumer and business community could also be affected by the spat, whether it is through higher prices, lost exports or increased inflation. The regional impact is the greater risk to the global economy. USMCA UNDER THREATEN Trump's battle with Canada may signal the end of America's largest trade agreement, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Mexico is America's biggest trading partner. The total value of goods traded between the two countries reached $872 billion in 2017. USMCA is the revised version 1994's North American Free Trade Agreement. Trump decided on July 1, not to renew the agreement, but it will be subject to annual reviews. Talks are still ongoing. The pact is likely to gradually wind down unless the three countries reach an agreement on new revisions. It will then be replaced most likely by bilateral agreements. This would add more uncertainty and complexity in the future of transshipment and investment as well as product sourcing. Trump's comments on the USMCA renewal are not exactly inspiring confidence. "I don't care. "I don't want to" is what I really mean. I'd prefer to be independent. Mexico and Canada are dependent on us. We don't require them. They are important to them. "It's not important to us," Trump said on Fox News, July 28. Trump has often backed down from his threats in the past 17 months, but the unraveling USMCA could threaten U.S. manufacturers, so he is unlikely to throw it out. The resurgence of tensions between the U.S. and Canada increases the probability that this will happen. It could lead to increased inflation, job losses, higher prices, longer supply chains and more investment uncertainty. Spillover Potential The spat between the U.S. and Canada could send a signal to other U.S. Trade partners. Carney is fighting for Canada's autonomy and seems to be willing to sacrifice increased trade friction to do so. But the Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has chosen the opposite approach, choosing to reduce friction with Trump to gain what she hopes to be more access for Mexican businesses to the U.S. Other countries are watching. It is not yet clear which approach will work. Carney's success in rebuffing Trump's aggressive tactic could further reduce the president's already reduced tariff power. In February, the Supreme Court struck down Trump's sweeping import tariffs. This forced the administration to use alternative legal justifications for imposing import duties. Trump may also want to make an international splash to show off America's global power, especially with his approval rating at record lows ahead of the November midterm elections and the Iran War still a stalemate. He may decide to stay true to his principles and "call Carney's Bluff" because Canada is more vulnerable. Sheinbaum may look more intelligent, but if the end result is a USMCA that has been severely weakened, everyone could lose. The latest flare-up occurs at a time when the world is facing a number of challenges. The yields on long-dated debt are 'near multi-decade-highs in the developed world.' The U.S.-Iran War is 'approaching its six month mark. It's not the right environment to put one of the largest and most important supply chains in danger. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Sources say that the Brazilian government will extend its gasoline subsidy to September 9.
Two sources close to the matter said on Tuesday that Brazil's government will extend its gasoline subsidy of 0.44 reais per liter ($0.0855) until September 9. The subsidy that was paid to gasoline importers and producers after the U.S. - Iran conflict began in the Middle East was to end on Wednesday. The last time the subsidy was extended by President Luiz inacio Lula's administration was on July 26, for an additional 30 days. This time, the government was unable to extend 'the benefit by another month as?the decree of the president allowing its creation expires September 9 and Congress approval is still pending. The local newspaper Valor Economico reported on the plan of the government earlier Tuesday, citing an anonymous source from the Finance Ministry. The ministry declined comment. The?government decided in June to remove part of the diesel subsidy as oil prices fell and tensions lowered in the Middle East. However, this external relief was only temporary, given the ongoing conflict. Subsidies and other measures, including those aimed at fuel, are part of a broader relief plan set up by?Lula after the beginning of the war in Iran. The leftist leader wants to run for a fourth four-year term at the upcoming presidential elections in October. $1 = 5.1469 Reais (Reporting and writing by Fabio Cardoso and Fernando Cardoso in Sao Paulo and Bernardo Caram, in Brasilia; editing by Oliver Griffin and Kyra Madry).
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Stocks rise on tech boost, but yields drop with oil prices
MSCI's global equity gauge rose on Monday as investors awaited?economic data, and Nvidia financial results. Meanwhile,?bond yields fell and oil prices dropped following a U.S. The threat to extend sanctions against Iran. The yields on U.S. 30-year and 10-year bonds fell for a second day in a row as traders weighed up the implications of U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent’s decision to increase Treasury buybacks last week. Bessent warned on Monday that countries would face secondary sanctions if they did not cut financial ties to Iran as part of the "economic D-Day." Oil prices dropped to a 1-week low on February 2, as traders saw economic pressures as less of a threat to oil supplies as compared to military escalation. Wall Street's heavyweight technology sector recovered some of its Monday losses ahead of Nvidia's release of their second-quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday. NVIDIA RESULTS PROVIDE FOCUS Tim Ghriskey said that technology is stronger after recent weakness. He noted that Nvidia's upcoming results were on the minds of investors. "Nvidia's price-to earnings valuation is down. Nvidia buyers are waiting for strong earnings reports. Nvidia helps to lift the rest of tech market." The strategist said that Treasury yields "moved in the opposite direction they had been moving, which is positive for stock market", but the movement was modest. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 160.24 points or 0.30% to 53,577.40. The S&P 500 gained 24.42 points or 0.32% to 7,677.28. And the Nasdaq Composite grew by 171.11 or 0.66% to 26,151.30. The MSCI index of global stocks rose 4.77 points or 0.42% to 1,150.00. The STOXX 600 pan-European index closed earlier up by 0.35%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan closed at 1,642.24, up 0.56%, while Japan's Nikkei gained 328.34, or?0.50% to 65,856.43. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 7.92 basis point to 4.625% from 4.704% at the end of Monday, while the yield on the 30-year bond fell 6.9 basis point to 5.162%. The yield on the 2-year note, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates from the Federal Reserve fell by 5.98 basis points, to 4.176%. The U.S. Dollar was virtually unchanged among currencies as investors considered Washington's expanded sanctions on Iran and renewed attempts to ease the pressure on longer-dated Treasury rates. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) fell by 0.1%, falling to 98.87. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.13%, reaching $1.1677. The dollar gained 0.03% against the Japanese yen to 159.13. Bitcoin fell 0.04%, to $78,893.30. It had earlier crossed above $80,000 for the first since mid-May. Energy markets saw U.S. Crude settle down 3.12% or $2.65 at $82.36 per barrel while Brent settled at $88.58 a barrel, down 3.89% or $3.59. Gold prices rose slightly on Tuesday, after reaching a three-month high in the previous session. The rally slowed near a psychologically important level as investors waited to see the preferred inflation gauge from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Gold spot rose by 0.31%, to $4665.86 per ounce. U.S. Gold futures dropped 0.23% at $4,630.00 per ounce. Reporting by Sinead carew in New York; Marc Jones in London; Rae Wee, in Singapore. Editing by Barbara Lewis, Lisa Shumaker.
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U.S. Secret Service is aware of Iranian video threats against Barron Trump
A spokesperson for the U.S. Secret Service said that they were aware of a video broadcast by Iranian state TV discussing a possible plot to assassinate U.S. President Donald Trump's son. The U.S. Secret Service has been made aware of this video, and it investigates any information that could be interpreted as a threat to our protected individuals. We do not discuss 'protective intelligence' due to concerns about operational security. Secret Service spokesperson Nate Herring explained this in an email. A?three minute video broadcast by Iranian State?TV discussed a possible?plot for assassinating Barron Trump, 20. The video claimed that he was under surveillance and that a bounty of $10 million had been offered to kill him. The United States and Iran have maintained hostile rhetoric throughout a six-month war that began in February by the U.S. The'reporter' earlier this month said that the U.S. received warnings over the last year from Israel, including before an alleged ruse involving Air Force One in Turkey. Trump has described himself as the "number 1 on the kill-list for Iran."
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Gold prices continue to rise after a 3-month high ahead of US inflation data
The gold price held steady on Tuesday, after reaching a three-month high in the previous session. This was due to the fact that the rally lost steam near a psychologically important level of resistance and before the release this week of the preferred inflation gauge by the U.S. Federal Reserve. By 2:16 p.m. ET (1816 GMT), spot gold had fallen 0.1% to $4,647.03 an ounce after reaching its highest level since the 14th of May. U.S. Gold Futures?settled at $4,694.50, a 0.1% decrease. "I believe this is a simple drop in momentum." Bart Melek is the global?head for commodity strategy at TD Securities. Bullion reached $4,696.18 per ounce on Monday as investors continued to analyze the recent U.S. Treasury Department decision to double its liquidity support?operations to buy back longer-dated bonds and notes, which drove the dollar down to a 3-month low. The markets are now focused Wednesday's U.S. The July Personal Consumption Expenditures report (PCE), and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, will provide further insight into the central bank's monetary policies outlook. The Fed is tracking PCE data to achieve its 2% inflation target. However, the soft figures for producer and consumer prices this month have reduced chances of an imminent rate increase in the U.S. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are only pricing in a 38% chance of an interest rate increase in September. In an environment of high interest rates, gold loses its appeal as it doesn't yield any interest. Data released on Tuesday showed that China's net imports of gold via Hong Kong in July increased by about 11% compared to a month ago, mainly due to an increase in investment demand. Iran has pledged on the geopolitical side to fight back at the expanded U.S. sanctions aimed at isolating the Iranian economy. It expressed a?confidence in the major trading partners to?resist this pressure campaign, and said that Washington wanted to revive the talks. Silver spot fell by 0.1%, to $68.86 an ounce. Platinum dropped by 1.2%, to $1,854.47. Palladium, at $1,332.43, was down 1.8%. (Reporting and editing by Nick Zieminski, Shailesh Kumar, and Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
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Stocks rise on tech boost, but yields drop with oil prices
MSCI's global equity gauge rose on Monday as investors awaited the release of economic data and Nvidia's results. Bond yields fell?and oil price dropped following a U.S. warning to 'expand' sanctions against Iran. The yields on U.S. 30-year and 10-year bonds fell for a second consecutive day as traders weighed up the implications of U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent’s decision to increase Treasury buybacks last week. Bessent, in what was dubbed "economic D-Day," warned on Monday that countries should cut off their financial ties to Iran or else face secondary sanctions. Oil prices dropped to their lowest level in a week on Tuesday, as traders saw economic pressure as a greater threat to oil supplies than military escalation. Wall Street's heavyweight tech sector is poised to recover some of its losses from Monday, before the release of Nvidia's second-quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday. NVIDIA RESULTS PROVIDE FOCUS Tim Ghriskey said that technology is stronger after recent weakness. He noted that Nvidia's upcoming results were on the minds of investors. "Nvidia's price to earnings ratio has dropped. Buyers of?Nvidia are here, looking for a good earnings report. Nvidia helps to lift the rest of tech market." The strategist said that Treasury yields "moved in the opposite direction?they had been moving, which is positive for stock markets," but that this move was modest. At 11:19 am. At 1519 GMT (1519 ET), the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 61.73, or 0.12% to 53,479.37. The S&P 500 gained 12.47, or 0.16% to 7,665.33, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 102.64, or 0.39% to 26,082.83. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 3.08 points or 0.27% to 1,148.31. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 0.37%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan closed at 1,642.24, up 0.56%, while Japan's Nikkei gained?328.34 or 0.50% to 65,856.43. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 5.55 basis points from late Monday to 4.649%. The 30-year bond rate fell by 5.04 basis points, to 5.1806%. The yield on the 2-year note, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates from the Federal Reserve, dropped 3.64 basis points, to 4.2%. The U.S. dollar was about the same as other currencies as investors considered Washington's increased sanctions against Iran, and new efforts to ease pressures on longer-dated Treasury rates. The dollar index (which measures the dollar in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) fell by 0.01%, while the euro rose by 0.07%, reaching $1.167. The dollar gained 0.11% against the Japanese yen to reach 159.25. Bitcoin gained 0.40%, reaching $79237.31, after crossing the $80,000 mark for the first since mid-May. On the energy market, U.S. Crude fell by 3.05%, to $82.42 per barrel. Brent was down to $89.20 a barrel, a drop of 3.22% for the day. Gold prices fell slightly on?the day after reaching a three-month high in the previous session. The rally lost steam near a psychologically important resistance level, and before the release of the preferred inflation gauge by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Spot gold dropped 0.28% to $4.637.94 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures fell by 0.23%, to $4630.00 per ounce. (Reporting from Sinead carew in New York; Marc Jones in London; Rae Wee, in Singapore. Editing by Andrew Heavens and Nick Zieminski.
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Gold prices continue to rise after a 3-month high ahead of US inflation data
Gold prices held steady on Tuesday, despite reaching a three-month high earlier in the session. The rally lost steam near a psychologically important resistance level ahead of this week's release of the preferred inflation gauge by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Gold spot was unchanged at $4.652.26 an ounce as of 1547 GMT (11.47 am EDT) after reaching its highest level since 14 May. U.S. gold futures increased 0.2% to $4 709.40. "I believe this is just a loss of momentum." Bart Melek said that you could 'probably attribute this drop to gold reaching a strong level of resistance at $4,700, or so. Bullion reached $4,696.18 per ounce on Monday as investors analyzed the recent U.S. Treasury Department decision to double its liquidity support and buyback operations of longer-dated bonds and notes, which drove the dollar down to an almost 3-month low. The markets are now focusing on Wednesday's U.S. The July Personal Consumption Expenditures report and Kevin Warsh’s remarks on Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium will provide further insight into the central bank’s monetary policy outlook. The Fed is tracking PCE data to achieve its 2% inflation target. However, the soft figures for producer and consumer prices this month have reduced chances of an imminent rate increase in the U.S. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are only pricing in a 38% chance of an interest rate increase in September. In an environment of high interest rates, gold loses its appeal as it doesn't yield any interest. Data released on Tuesday showed that China's net imports of gold via Hong Kong in July increased by about 11% compared to a month ago, mainly due to an increase in investment demand. Iran has pledged on the geopolitical side to fight back at the expanded U.S. sanctions aimed at isolating the Iranian economy. It expressed a?confidence in the major trading partners to?resist this pressure campaign, and said that Washington wanted to revive the talks. Silver spot fell by 0.2%, to $68.77 an ounce. Platinum dropped by 1.1%, to $1,855.32, while palladium fell 1.8%, to $1333. (Reporting and editing by Nick Zieminski, Shailesh Kumar and Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
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State health department reports two deaths from measles, in Pennsylvania
Health officials announced on Tuesday that two Pennsylvania residents had died from measles. This is the first death in the state in 35 years. 393 cases have been reported in 28 counties in 2026. According to the Pennsylvania Department of Health (Pennsylvania Department of Health), both people were unvaccinated residents of Lancaster County. The department did not release any additional information, citing concerns about privacy. Debra Bogen, Secretary of Health said: "Because the measles was largely eradicated in the Commonwealth for over three decades, the public is not familiar with the disease and does not fully understand its potential severity." The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 2,777 confirmed cases of measles in the United States as of August 20, 2018. The '2026 figures' represent the most U.S. cases ever recorded in one year, since the resurgence between 1989 and 1990. This period saw more than 55,000 infections with 123 deaths. The Department of Health and Human Services in the United States did not respond immediately to a comment request.
Trump sends Saudi deal to Congress, but demands that Riyadh recognize Israel
A U.S. official said that President Donald Trump sent Congress a proposal for an agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia to develop civil nuclear energy. The official also stated that the agreement would only be approved after Saudi Arabia normalized its relations with Israel.
According to a U.S. official who declined to identify himself, the agreement was signed in July, and it would allow U.S. firms to export civil nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia. It was then sent to Congress.
The Saudi Embassy in Washington didn't immediately respond to our request for comment.
Trump's intentions were not made clear when he sent the nuclear deal to Congress for 90 days.
The?U.S. official said in an email that "the president's position hasn't changed" and that the agreement would only be implemented if Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords". In an email, the official referred to agreements that were mediated by the U.S. between Israel and Arab or Muslim majority nations in order to normalize relations.
These accords were reached between Israel and the UAE in 2020 and 2021. They also included Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan.
After agreeing to the Saudi Nuclear Deal in July, Trump - who worked on a similar deal during his first term - set normalization as one of the conditions for its implementation.
Joe Biden, the former president of the United States, also wanted to tie a nuclear agreement to these accords. Diplomats believed Riyadh would normalize relations with Israel by 2023. However, the war between Israel and Gaza that began in October 2023 radically changed the situation.
Saudi Arabia demanded that a Palestinian State be established in an irreversible manner before it would recognize Israel.
The '30-year nuclear agreement' calls for the construction of AP1000-type reactors. This?project is worth tens and tens billions of dollars, which would benefit Westinghouse. Westinghouse is jointly owned by Canada based Cameco Asset Management and Brookfield Asset Management. (Reporting and editing by Chris Reese, Cynthia Osterman and Jonathan Landay)
(source: Reuters)