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Boeing maintains its 20-year forecast of jet demand, despite the Iran War impact

Boeing maintains its 20-year forecast of jet demand, despite the Iran War impact
Boeing maintains its 20-year forecast of jet demand, despite the Iran War impact

Boeing's latest?market?projection, released on Saturday in England, just ahead of the Farnborough Airshow, maintained the strong forecast it made for global demand?for new commercial planes over the next 20 years.

The U.S. aircraft manufacturer's forecast for 2025 was nearly identical. Boeing predicted that the industry would deliver 43,625 jetliners and cargo aircraft around the globe from 2026 to 2045. This includes 33,545 single aisle jets, 7,715 broadbody aircraft, and 930 factory built freighters. Airbus, Boeing's European competitor, cut its forecast by 1% this month to 42,060 new aircraft. The reason given was the Iran War and trade tensions.

Boeing anticipates a growth in air passenger traffic of 2.3% for this year. This is less than half of the 5.3% growth rate last year. It anticipates growth of 6%-7% by 2027, and 5%-6.6% by 2028.

Boeing Commercial Marketing Vice president Darren Hulst said that the passenger traffic worldwide will be at its current level by 2028. He said that the current slowdown was different from the demand shock of several years caused by the COVID-19 epidemic.

Boeing predicts that passenger traffic will grow by 4% per year over the next 20-years, while cargo traffic is expected to increase by 3.7%. The jet fleet will expand by 3%, and the global economy is expected to grow 2.5%.

The demand for new aircraft is growing faster than the planemakers' ability to deliver them. Hulst stated that passenger traffic had recovered to pre-pandemic level last year, but new jet deliveries remained below 2018 output.

The company expects a shortage of around 2,000 aircraft by 2026. Single-aisle shortages are unlikely to be resolved until the end of this decade, while widebody shortages will likely persist well into the early 30s.

The outlook assumes that demand will be split roughly evenly between replacements and growth. Boeing projects that 21,475 of the deliveries will be older jets, and 22,150 to support fleet expansion. Global fleet is expected to grow from 28,000 aircraft by 2025 to 50,000 aircraft by 2045. New-generation aircraft will increase from 32% to 92%.

China will account for 21% of all deliveries. Eurasia is next at 20%. North America, South/Southeast Asia, and the Middle East/Africa are each at 19%. Latin America, Oceania/Northeast Asia, and Oceania/Northeast Asia, at 5%, follow.

Boeing's outlook reflects a recovering market - but still constrained by the fragility of supply chains and manufacturing capacity. Boeing faces delays in certification for key programs, including the 737 MAX 7 & 10 and 777-9.

Hulst stated that the long-term demand is supported by migration, trade, tourism and expansion of airline networks.

He said, "The reasons why we travel or why goods are moved don't change." (Reporting from Seattle by Dan Catchpole; editing by David Gregorio).

(source: Reuters)