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Oil price risks are renewed as tensions between Iran and the US renew FOREX Dollar.
Dollar held gains against major counterparts on Thursday. The dollar recovered from a near-month-low on expectations that U.S. economic growth will continue to be resilient, and the Federal Reserve would?hold rates stable this month. U.S. unemployment benefit filings dropped last week, suggesting continued stability in the labor market. Meanwhile, U.S. retails sales rose marginally as lower gas prices affected receipts at service station. When oil prices increase, the dollar is often the safest haven, displacing the euro and the yen. Uto Shinohara is a senior investment strategist with Mesirow Currency Management. "After earlier this week's CPI and PPI prints were weaker than expected, today's retail and claims data along with further intensification of the Middle East have provided modest support," he said. The World Cup and seasonal distortions have clouded today's data. Geopolitical developments continue to have a relatively limited market impact. Gains in the dollar, Treasury rates and oil are relatively modest so far. The oil price fell by 0.8% on Thursday to $84.29, but it is still near its 'highest level since mid-June. Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Capital Markets' chief market strategist, said that the dollar may be finding a safe haven bid. Since the beginning of the war, "Iran has always been a source of concern." Iran is showing that the U.S. has limits to its escalation. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the currency's performance against six other currencies, rose by 0.31%, to 100.76. It is off its lowest level since June 18, but remains on course for a weekly drop. The odds of a Fed rate hike in July were 10% compared to 45% implied probabilities at the beginning of the week. According to Fed funds futures via CME Group, the markets see a 48% chance of at least 25 basis points increase in September. ECB RATE PATH IN VIEW The euro dropped 0.23% to $1.1440, ending a two-day winning streak. Investors closely monitor European gas futures which are at their highest level since March. This has stoked concerns that higher energy prices could impact the euro zone's economy and hinder further appreciation of its currency. Markets bet on two more rate increases until 2027, and some economists are not ruling out an 'first move' next week. Carsten Brzeski said that some ECB officials may be more inclined to push for a rate increase after mentioning renewed escalation of the Middle East. Investors expect that Britain's new prime minister will appoint a fiscally conservative minister of finance. Sterling is retreating from a two-month high. The dollar increased 0.13% at 162.39 The dollar rose 0.13% to 162.39. Attention was focused on possible moves by Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund after Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated last week that the government wanted a "substantial increase" in domestic asset investments. Analysts have said that the GPIF is the most influential Japanese investor on the forex market. GPIF reviews its strategy every five years, and the latest review was completed in 2025. It can adjust its holdings if they are within the target allocation bands.
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Fuel shortage worries grow as US refiners record new profits
U.S. refining margins reached a new record on Thursday for the third straight session, as falling stockpiles and worsening Middle East tensions threaten to cause a potential shortage of fuel in the world's biggest consumer nation. U.S. refining companies have been the most benefited by the Iran War as foreign buyers have clamoured for their products, pushing the nation's fuel exports to new records. Fuel prices have risen sharply as a result of the 'domestic' fuel stockpiles being reduced. This has impacted consumer budgets during the summer driving season, and could pose a problem for Midwest farmers. The 3-2-1 crack is a spread that uses a 3-1-2-2 split. The benchmark used by U.S. refiners to measure profitability rose more than 2%, closing at $69.66 per barrel. This is a new record. Refiners use the spread traded at the New York Mercantile Exchange as a hedging tool to lock in profit margins. In recent months, U.S. refiners have been driven by diesel, which accounts for the largest portion of global oil consumption. The industrial fuel has been in short supply for many years because of refinery closures across the West. Middle Eastern export disruptions due to the Iran War also made the market more tight. A 'temporary ban on Russian exports' announced earlier this month further exacerbated global diesel shortages. U.S. Diesel stockpiles increased 4.5 million barrels to 102 million last week, but they were still "nearly 11,000,000 barrels lower than the level recorded on the 27th of February and about 8,000,000 barrels less than the seasonal average over the past five years," according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The gasoline supply is also a cause for concern, as refiners in the U.S., and around the world, have reduced production of motor fuel to increase diesel and jet fuel. Since the beginning of the Iran War at the end February, the supply-demand imbalance in the United States has caused gasoline stocks to fall more than diesel. This has left motorists in the U.S. with sticker shock. EIA data shows that U.S. gasoline stocks fell by over 1.5 million barrels, to 210.5 millions barrels during the week ending July 10. This is a drop of over 42 million barrels from the week ending February 27, and a fall of 14 million barrels compared to the seasonal average for the past five years. EIA data shows that the motor fuel inventory is at its lowest level since 2012. Data from GasBuddy showed that the average U.S. retail gasoline price was $3.95 per gallon on Thursday. This is an increase of nearly 80 cents compared to last year. The data revealed that prices had risen to $4.56 a gallon due to disruptions in Middle East oil exports caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The price of gasoline is one of the most visible indicators of inflation for U.S. customers. This makes the recent price increase a political anathema to U.S. president Donald Trump who has accused the oil companies without evidence. Analysts predict that U.S. drivers may have to endure even more pain before refiners focus on gasoline. John Kemp, an independent oil analyst based in London, wrote on Thursday to his subscribers that "encouraging refiners?to revert to max-gasoline will require higher prices for gasoline at both retail and wholesale levels as well as greater margins compared to other fuels." U.S. gasoline crack spread The price of oil settled on Thursday at $59 per barrel, the same level as in June 2022. The diesel crack spread The price of oil has reached a record-high level at $91 per barrel. Reporting by Shariq KHan in New York, Editing Liz Hampton
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Canada wildfire smoke blankets US Midwest and Northeast with hazardous orange haze
On Thursday, heavy smoke from hundreds of Canadian wildfires covered a large swath in the U.S., from the Midwest up to the Northeast. Officials warned residents to stay inside as much as possible, and avoid the unhealthy, acrid air. Detroit had the worst air pollution in the world according to IQAir. The company monitors the city's air quality. It registered a pollutionindex (or pollution index) of 600. This is twice the level that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency considers "hazardous". Data from the federal government showed that smoke levels were dangerous in Minnesota, Michigan and northern Illinois. They also reached northern Ohio, and even into Ontario. Ten states, from Minnesota all the way down to Maryland, reported "unhealthy readings" in at least some places. Stephaine Villanova (33), a Chicago resident, was out on a stroll downtown with her father, aged 68, when she said, "It is wild, because you can't tell it from the outside. It looks like fog and you're completely covered in smoke. Both wore face masks. Emily Fischer, professor and atmospheric chemist at Colorado State University, said: "It is a river-like flow of smoke that's currently pouring into the Midwest." This is directly related to climate change. It is the climate change that people can breathe. Smoke was expected to?intensify throughout the day. The smoke was expected to worsen throughout the day. The dangerous conditions in New YorkCitymetropolitan were reported just days before Sunday's FIFA World Cup final, which was to be played nearby in New Jersey in front of more than 80,000 soccer fans. At a meeting on Thursday, New York City mayor Zohran Mamdani stated that "today is expected be the worst day for this event". At 'unhealthy levels', everyone, including people with heart disease, asthma, and older adults, may experience health effects. "Every New Yorker must take precautions today." The mayor announced that the city would be giving away?free face masks KN95 at?hundreds? of libraries, precincts, and firehouses. Officials reported 858 fires in Canada as of Thursday morning. Among them, 111 were considered to be out of control. The majority of fires are located in central Canada, specifically Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Ontario. According to data from the government, 5.9 million acres (2.4 million hectares), or roughly 5,9 million acres of land, have been burned in Canada during this "wildfire season". According to climate experts, rising temperatures around the globe are fueling an increase in wildfires. Wildfire smoke is more toxic than regular air pollution because it can linger in the atmosphere for weeks, and travel thousands of miles. Studies have shown that wildfire smoke is linked to higher rates of heart attacks and strokes. It has also been associated with cancer, pregnancy complications, and weakened immunity defenses. Reporting by Joseph Ax, Eric Cox, Caroline Stauffer, Wa Lone and Andrew Hay from New Mexico; Additional reporting by Andrew Hay and Steve Gorman in Toronto and New Mexico; Writing and editing by Mark Porter and Nick Zieminski.
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As US interest rate hikes are boosted by Middle East tensions, gold falls 2%
On Thursday, gold fell?2%, to a?two-week low, as rising Middle East tensions drove up oil prices and U.S. Treasury rates, causing inflation fears and reinforcing expectations for higher U.S. Interest Rates. Gold spot was down 1.9% to $3,984.64 an ounce at 2:05 pm EDT (1400 GMT), after having fallen as much as 2.2% earlier in the day and reaching its lowest level since July '1 during that session. U.S. Gold futures settled at $3,992.10 by 1.5%. Oil prices were near their highest level in a month as worries about Middle East energy supplies grew after Iran told Yemen's Houthis that they would be ready to shut down?the Red Sea route for oil if the U.S. struck Iranian power infrastructure. The higher oil prices fuel inflation fears, increasing expectations of high?interest rates. Gold's appeal as an asset that does not yield returns is also diminished. Bart Melek is the global head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. He said that oil prices have risen yet again. With the higher Brent levels there are expectations for a possible rate hike in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 53% probability that the Federal Reserve is likely to?raise rates in September. The yields on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note have been moving higher. The U.S. Dollar gained 0.2% making bullion more expensive for foreign buyers. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declared this week his 'determination to bring down inflation without revealing how. Data released on Tuesday revealed that U.S. Consumer inflation decreased in June. Meanwhile, data from Wednesday showed a decrease in the Producer Price Index. Even if the Fed adopts a more dovish position, the persistently high price of energy would make it hard for them to do so. Fawad Rasaqzada is a market analyst with Forex.com. He said that investors prefer the dollar 'over zero-yielding metals. Spot silver fell 3.6% to $55.68 an ounce. Platinum dropped 3.1% to 1,621.83 and palladium declined 4.1% to 1,260.70. (Reporting and editing by Diti Pjara and Jonathan Ananda in Bengaluru)
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Standard Nuclear, a nuclear fuel company, is valued at $2.17 Billion as its shares slide in the NYSE debut
Standard Nuclear's shares dropped 10% in their New York Stock Exchange debut on Thursday after the company reduced its?offering?size, as investors remain cautious about valuations. The Oak Ridge, Tennessee-based company opened its shares at $13.50 each, below the $15 offered price. This gives the nuclear fuel firm a value of $2.17 Billion. The market debut shows that investors are still cautious despite a renewed interest in nuclear power. This is fueled by the surge in electricity demand for artificial intelligence data centres and U.S. policies supporting it. Nuclear energy is gaining in popularity as technology giants and utilities seek carbon-free electricity that can be used 24/7 to support the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure. Investors have been wary of high-risk companies, even though they are linked to the nuclear supply chain. Standard Nuclear raised $150 million after selling 10,000,000 shares at $15 per share. Companies in the sector will still benefit from the executive orders issued by the Trump Administration in May 2025. These are designed to speed up reactor approvals and to support the nuclear fuel chain. Donald Trump wants to quadruple the country's nuclear energy capacity by 2050 in order to meet the rising demand for electricity from data centers, electric cars and cryptocurrency. Standard Nuclear follows the debuts of reactor developers X Energy and?Deep Fission whose shares also trade below their IPO prices. As of the last close, shares in Oklo have fallen more than 36% since May 2024. Standard Nuclear?processes enriched Uranium feedstock to advanced nuclear fuels for reactors including small modular reactors or microreactors. Aditi Tiwari in Bengaluru and Prakhar Shrivastava, editor Joyjeet Das.
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India's SBI Funds Management raises $31 billion at the country's fourth most-bid IPO
India's SBI Funds Management ?drew bids worth 3 trillion Indian rupees ($31.14 billion), making the asset ?manager's $1.03 billion initial public offering (IPO) the country's fourth-most-subscribed issue. BlackRock, sovereign wealth funds from Singapore, Abu Dhabi, and Norway, and other anchor investors raised $278.5 million of the $1.03 billion IPO. After a relatively quiet first half of this year, India's primary stock market made a strong return with the IPO that closed on Thursday. State Bank of India announced in a press release that the IPO price per share was 574 Indian Rupees ($5.96). India will have a 'busy pipeline of public offering in the second half, with mega listings from Reliance Jio & National Stock Exchange anticipated before the end 2026. SBI Funds Management is India's leading asset manager. It oversees funds worth 12.5 trillion rupees (131 billion dollars) as of March 20, 2026. Institutional investors were the main demand drivers for this offering. They 'bought' shares worth $25 billion, which is 140 times more than the shares that were offered to them. The amount set aside for SBI shareholders and retail investors was subscribed to 3.6 and 9.5 times respectively. Stocks are expected to start trading on 21 July. Data from PRIME Database shows that SBI Funds' IPO is behind Reliance Power, LG Electronics India, and Bajaj Housing Finance when it comes to the number of bids received. Analysts at Aditya Birla Money said that the asset manager was well-positioned to capitalize on its strong distribution network, market leadership and robust profitability in a July 14 note. India has had IPOs of nearly $4 billion this year. This is a sharp drop from the $21.8 billion raised last?year. According to PRIME database, activity will pick up in the second half of 2026 with 251 companies aiming to raise $4.93 trillion rupees (about $51.7 billion). The heavy bidding for SBI Funds IPO?signals investors' willingness to commit new capital to quality franchises. This can help revive sentiments in the upcoming pipeline of (IPOs)." said Dhiraj Rielli, managing director at HDFC Securities.
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Chevron signs MOUs for West Qurna 2 oilfield and Nassiriya oilfields in Iraq
Chevron is set to sign memorandums with the Iraqi Government on Friday to help advance the?U.S. According to a senior Chevron executive, the oil giant could enter West Qurna 2 oilfields and Nassiriya. The executive stated that the company was also in talks with Iraq about producing technical studies and evaluating potential pipeline routes for transporting crude oil out of the country, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The oilfield agreement and pipeline studies are part a larger push by Iraq's?government to strengthen energy ties with America. The U.S. and Israel war with Iran has made it more urgent to find alternative routes for exports. Ali al-Zaidi visited the Chevron headquarters in Houston on Thursday, as part of his five-day visit to the U.S. Ali al-Zaidi was appointed Iraqi prime minister by Donald Trump back in May. He also met with him on Tuesday. Iraqi government wants to increase its oil production by securing U.S. partnership during the visit this week. Both the oil minister and prime minister met with Chevron vice chairman Mark Nelson on Friday. In a press release, Chevron's upstream president Clay Neff stated that "we appreciate the opportunity to meet with Iraqi leadership and discuss how our expertise?in building large oil and gas project throughout the world can help Iraq as it develops its abundant resources." Chevron entered exclusive negotiations with Iraq in February for West Qurna 2. It is one of the largest oilfields in the world, producing?about 460,000 bbls per day. Iraq nationalized this field in order to avoid disruptions caused by U.S. sanctions against Russia's Lukoil which operated West Qurna 2 previously. The agreement reached on Friday will help advance?commercial terms? and lead to an agreement finalizing Chevron's takeover of the oilfield. Chevron signed a principle agreement with?Iraq in August last year to develop the Nassiriya project, which consists of four blocks of exploration in addition to developing other oil fields. PIPELINE TRAILS The evaluation of pipelines, and the bypassing of the Strait of Hormuz will be crucial for Iraq as it seeks to increase its oil production and diversify its routes of export. On July 4, a consortium consisting of Chevron, Qatar's UCC and Iraq's Basra Oil Company signed an agreement to compare possible pipeline routes. An official from the U.S. State Department said this week that Trump's administration is supporting efforts by Iraq and Syria in order to revive a pipeline connecting the two countries. Kirkuk-Baniyas has been mostly inactive since 2003, when the U.S. led invasion of Iraq damaged it.
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As US interest rate hikes are boosted by Middle East tensions, gold falls 2%
On 'Thursday', gold fell by 2% to a two-week low as rising Middle East tensions drove up oil prices and U.S. Treasury Yields, causing inflation fears and reinforcing expectations for higher U.S. rates. Gold spot was down 1.7% to $3,989.66 an ounce at 12:35 pm EDT (1635 GMT), after dropping as much as 2.0% earlier. It had reached its lowest level since July 1. U.S. Gold Futures fell 1.4% to $3.994.10. Oil prices increased by over 1% after concerns about Middle?East energy supply grew. Iran had asked Yemen's Houthis if they were ready to shut down the Red Sea oil route if the U.S. struck Iranian power infrastructure. The higher oil prices fuel inflation fears, increasing expectations of high interest rates. This reduces the appeal of gold as a non yielding asset. Bart Melek is global head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. He said that the rising oil prices and higher Brent levels are causing gold to be under pressure. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in an approximately 55% chance of the Federal Reserve raising rates in September. The yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes have risen. The U.S. Dollar gained 0.2% making bullion more costly for overseas buyers. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declared this week his determination to bring down?inflation? without revealing how. Data released Tuesday revealed that U.S. Consumer inflation decreased in June. Meanwhile, Wednesday's data showed a decrease in the Producer Price Index. Even if some of the near-term data softens, the persistently high price of energy would make it hard for the Fed adopt a more dovish position. Investors prefer the dollar to?zero-yielding?gold for the same'reason', Fawad Rasaqzada said in a Forex.com note. Silver spot fell 3.1%, to $55.96 an ounce. Platinum dropped 2.2%, to $1.637.68. Palladium was down 3%, to $1.273.50. (Reporting and editing by Diti Pjara and Jonathan Ananda in Bengaluru)
Oil prices drop as chipmakers pressure equity indexes worldwide
Equities around the globe fell Thursday, as investors sold off heavy-weight chips stocks. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields increased after the latest economic releases as well as as the Middle East war intensified. Chip stocks fell from Asia to the U.S., as ?higher-than-expected 77% ?earnings growth from Taiwanese chip manufacturing giant TSMC was not enough to impress investors who have heavily leaned into technology stocks related to artificial intelligence.
According to LSEG, the U.S. reporting season for the second quarter started well. Analyst expectations for quarterly earnings increased to 24,8% on Wednesday, from 23,7% last week. Tony Welch is the chief investment officer of SignatureFD. He said that high expectations can lead to short-term weakness.
When you have a lot optimism on the market, you need to make sure that everything goes right. "Any negative news can cause the market to fall," said he. There's a great deal of confidence in the market right now. It's not necessarily a bad thing, but it creates a difficult hurdle for the market to continue going higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 105.67, or 0.2% to 52,552.97. The S&P 500 also fell 38.63, or 0.5% to 7,533.77. And the Nasdaq Composite was down 387.28, or 1.5% to 25,881.95.
The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 6.49 points (0.6%) to 1,121.65. The pan-European STOXX 600 closed at 0.16%. South Korea's KOSPI, a technology-heavy index, fell by more than 6%. Japan's Nikkei also closed almost 3% lower. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 4.3% in its second consecutive daily loss.
The AI trade is no longer priced on growth. The price is based on 'perfection. Gene Goldman is the chief investment officer of Cetera, a California-based firm. "Any earnings report that is merely great instead of flawless gets sold," he said.
OIL SLIPS WHILE WAR ESCALATES Iran, the United States and other countries exchanged fire Thursday, intensifying the attacks that have been ongoing since the weekend. This has largely undone the truce which halted the fighting last month. Iran has signaled that, while the two countries fight for control of Strait of Hormuz it may also pressure its Houthi ally in Yemen to shut the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which is another important oil route, at the mouth of Red Sea. Oil futures continued to decline, with U.S. Crude falling 0.8% or 65 cents per barrel. Brent was down 0.85% or 72 cents. U.S. Retail sales rose 0.2% in June in line with expectations as lower gas prices affected receipts at service station. Consumers, however, continued to support the underlying spending. Initial weekly jobless claims fell to 208,000 seasonally adjusted, which was below the 217,000 economists had predicted. U.S. Treasury rates were modestly higher following these figures, which did not change investors' expectations about the?path? of interest rate changes from the Federal Reserve.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased 1.44 basis point to 4.559% from 4.545% on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the 30-year bond's yield rose by 0.25 basis point to 5.0855%.
The yield on the 2-year note, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates from the Federal Reserve, increased 2.55 basis points, to 4.154%. The dollar rose against major peers despite being near its one-month low. This was due to expectations that the U.S. will continue to be resilient, and that Fed rates will stay the same this month.
The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket of currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) rose by 0.3% to 100.74 while the euro dropped 0.2% to $1.1441.
The dollar strengthened by 0.1% against the Japanese yen to 162.37. Sterling fell 0.5% to $1.3475 after reaching a two-month high on Wednesday. Gold fell to its lowest level in two weeks after two sessions of gains. Spot gold dropped 2.1% to $3.976.24 per ounce, while spot silver fell by 3.8% to $55.56. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus Joe Bavier David Gaffen, Caroline Valetkevitch in New York, Chuck Mikolajczak, Marc Jones in London and Stella Qiu, Sydney)
(source: Reuters)