Latest News
-
Fed officials are concerned about inflation rising because of the risks associated with supply chains
Federal Reserve officials warned on Wednesday that the U.S.-backed conflict with Iran could lead to a sustained shock in inflation, given the high price of oil and the growing concern about global supply chain problems. Chicago Fed President Austan G. Goolsbee stated that business executives had told him, shortly after the conflict began, that a brief rise in oil prices would not cause a problem. However, "if it was to be?month after?month of really high oil prices?, they would begin to feel intense pressures on their supply chain", similar to what drove the COVID-19 inflation spike. Goolsbee told journalists in a video conference after attending a Milken Institute Conference in Los Angeles that "you're beginning to see these problems develop." The longer this goes on, the worse it will get, as they are using up their stock of industrial chemicals and inputs, whose distribution was disrupted. Meanwhile, high fuel prices and sustained shipping costs are also contributing to these problems. While there was initial ?concern the war would hurt U.S. job growth and demand while also leading to higher prices, "It has not yet been a stagflationary-direction shock," Goolsbee said. "It's just an inflationary shock." The longer this continues, the more nervous I become. Investors see few chances of the U.S. Central Bank cutting rates in the near future. With inflation hovering around a percentage-point above the Fed’s 2% target, and the expectation that it will move higher. Separately, St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem stated that the risks of monetary policy had shifted to higher inflation. This could require interest rates to be held "for some time" and possibly even moved up. Musalem stated that "inflation is significantly above our target" at a Mississippi Bankers Association meeting in Fairhope (Alabama). We have risks on both the inflation and employment sides. My understanding is that risks are shifting to the inflation side, adding weight to expectations that the Fed will at least hold its policy rate. Musalem stated that there are "possible scenarios" where the Fed can cut rates if the demand slows and the unemployment rate rises. However, Musalem also said it was possible for the central bank to increase borrowing costs at this time. Musalem said that the inflation pressures had risen beyond the impact of high oil prices and tariffs due to the Middle East war. MOVEMENT WITHIN THE FED IN DIRECTION OF POSSIBLE RATE INCREASES The oil prices have fluctuated, rising and falling in response to news reports on progress or lack thereof towards settling the dispute. Global benchmark prices dropped overnight as news spread of a possible agreement, but then climbed back to $100 per barrel. According to AAA, the average price of gasoline in the U.S. has increased from $3 to $4.50 per gallon. The New York Fed's measure of global supply-chain pressure has risen to its highest level since July 2022 when manufacturing chains still were clogged by the pandemic. Musalem added that "this is also the underlying inflation we should be concerned about," adding that executives told him that higher prices of?aluminum and helium as well as diesel fuel, among other industrial inputs, "will all cause disruption..." The confidence effect may lead to a reduction in hiring, even though it could result in higher prices. The Fed could face a prolonged pause on any changes to its policy rate, which has been in the range of 3.50% to 3.75% since December. This would stall the anticipated continuation of monetary policy ease and make it difficult for Kevin Warsh to achieve the 'rate cuts' that President Donald Trump had said he expected. Musalem, Goolsbee and Powell are not voting members on the policy-setting committee. However, their comments show that the Fed is moving towards the idea of rate increases to combat inflation. The Personal Consumption Spending?Price index, which is used by the Fed in setting its inflation target, increased to 3.5% in March from 2.8% the previous month. Meanwhile, the underlying "core inflation" that excludes recent fluctuations in energy prices rose to 3,2% from 3.0% the previous month. Next week the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will be released. It is expected that it will show an acceleration. According to economists polled, the U.S. Employment report for April is scheduled to be released on Friday and will likely show that the unemployment rate has remained at 4.3%. Howard Schneider is reporting; Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao and Chizu Nomiyama are editing.
-
Gold reaches a record high in less than a week on US-Iran Peace Deal Hopes
The gold price soared to its highest level in over a week after reports that the U.S.A. and Iran were close to a peace deal. This quelled fears of inflation and high interest rates. By 2:10 pm EDT (1810 GMT), spot gold had risen 2.8%, to $4685.23, after reaching its highest level in more than a month earlier. U.S. Gold Futures closed 2.8% higher, at $4694.30. The U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.4% making dollar-priced materials more affordable to other currency holders. The optimism that a final agreement between the U.S. "The optimism about a final deal between the?U.S. I wouldn't say that we are out of the woods yet. The market will continue to "pivot" on Middle East headlines. IRAN REVIEWS US PROPOSAL Iran announced that it was reviewing a U.S. proposal after sources claimed Washington and Tehran had been working on a one-page memo to end the Gulf War, leaving difficult issues like Iran's nuke programme for later. Global oil prices fell after reports of a possible agreement. Brent crude futures fell to about $100 per barrel. Inflation concerns are heightened by higher oil prices, which could lead central banks to maintain high rates in order to combat price pressures. Gold is a hedge against rising inflation but tends to suffer in an environment of high rates, since it pays no interest. Investors will be watching the release of the U.S. monthly employment report on Friday. This report will test whether the U.S. economy is resilient enough to allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its monetary policy, or if a softer labour market might revive the case for rate reductions. ADP's National Employment Report shows that private payrolls in the U.S. increased more than expected for April. (Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Paul Simao, Barbara Lewis and Tasim Zahid) Ashitha Shivprasad, Bengaluru (Reporting) Barbara Lewis, Tasim Zahid and Paul Simao edited the article.
-
In 10 years, Argentina's lithium and copper exports will reach $32.7 billion
Luis Lucero, Argentina's mining Minister, said that the country expects to export $20.6 billion of copper and $12.1 billion of lithium in 10 years. This is up from $6.0 in mining exports in last year. The expected surge in lithium exports and copper is an early indicator that President Javier Milei’s RIGI incentive scheme is unlocking capital for large-scale mining. If achieved, these export levels would be five times higher than the mining exports of 2025. This would provide a new major source of hard currency to an economy that has been historically restricted by foreign exchange shortages. In 10 years Argentina could produce?580,000 tonnes of LCE (Lithium Carbonate equivalent) and 1,641,000 tonnes of copper per year, Lucero stated in an interview at the'sidelines' of a mining conference in San Juan Province. Lucero estimated previously that Argentina's mine exports will more than double from $4 billion to $10 billion by 2027. Lucero stated that the total value of approved mining?projects and those submitted to the RIGI (Large Investment Incentive Regime) in the?country amounts to $50.692 Billion. Milei said that the scheme would start in 2024 and attract projects worth $70 billion within a year of its implementation. RIGI helped Argentina to attract investment from mining giants such as BHP and Rio Tinto, as the government aims for mining to be a major sector?in Argentina alongside energy and agricultural. Argentina is the fourth largest supplier of lithium in the world. Together with Chile and Bolivia it forms the "lithium triangular" which contains the largest reserves of this white metal, used for electronics, electric cars, and other key technologies. It also exports silver and gold, and there are major copper projects in development. These include Vicuna, by Australia's BHP, and?Canada’s Lundin Mining. Los Azules, by McEwen Copper a subsidiary of McEwen Mining. The majority of new copper projects are expected to begin operating around 2030. Lucero stated that the idea of a copper?triangle? with Chile and Peru was?starting to emerge. "Our greatest comparative advantage is that Argentina has just begun. We still have vast tracts of virgin land to explore, and geological potential that is underdeveloped. "We have a historical opportunity," Lucero stated. (Reporting and writing by Lucila SIGAL; editing by Nia WELLS)
-
Exelon raises capex plan on data center demand, tops quarterly estimates
U.S. utility Exelon increased its capital expenditure plans and surpassed Wall Street expectations for the first-quarter adjusted profits on Wednesday, due to higher electricity prices, strong demand, and favorable weather. U.S. utilities have increased their capital budgets in order to keep up with the increase in demand for power. Exelon also increased its capital expenditures projected for the next four-year period to $41.7 billion from $41.3 billion. Executives said that the company and Invenergy bid on two Illinois transmission projects, valued at $1.9 billion, in Tranche 2.1.1 of regional grid operator MISO. The company added that?Exelon’s data-center pipe is supported by Federal Energy Regulatory Commission-approved transmission security contracts, with?approximately $1 billion of associated collateral. The company expects its total regulated assets to grow 7.9%, and its value of transmission assets to increase by 16%. Rate-case processes are used by regulated utilities to determine the amount of electricity, gas and other services that customers will be charged. While net income at Exelon’s Commonwealth Edison (ComEd) unit, Illinois’ largest electric utility, rose slightly to $310 million, The earnings at PECO, Pennsylvania's largest natural gas and electric utility, increased by 4.5% to $278 million. Exelon's revenue for the quarter ending March 31 was $7.24 billion, exceeding analysts' estimates of $6.93billion. LSEG data shows that the adjusted profit per share of Chicago-based 'company came in at 91 cents, compared to analysts' average estimates of 89 cents. Varun Sahay, Bengaluru. Diti pujara, editing.
-
Spain's Endesa confirms its full-year guidance following a first quarter that exceeded expectations
Spanish utility 'Endesa' confirmed on Wednesday its?full year profit - guidance after posting a net profit of 24% higher than market expectations in the first quarter. Enel's company booked a net profit of 725 millions euros ($852million) in the third quarter. This compares to 583 million euro a year earlier and 620million euros that analysts polled by LSEG had expected. Endesa reported that demand for?residential and?services segments was strong. Industrial demand, however, has been affected primarily by geopolitical uncertainties. The utility has reaffirmed their guidance for the year 2026. The utility has predicted a 'net profit' of between 2.3 and 2.4 billion euro and an 'earnings prior to interest, taxes depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA),?between 5.8 and 6.1 billion euro. Endesa plans to invest 10.6 billion euros in the 'power networks' through 2028, as part of a three-year investment plan announced in February. The company said that boosting investments was crucial for reducing grid bottlenecks.
-
The French government claims that fuel margins have returned to levels seen before the crisis
The French Finance Ministry announced on Wednesday that fuel retailers are now making the same gross margins they did before the Iran war, after a brief spike in prices. The data release comes after an announcement made in April, which was heavily criticized by the industry. It said that the French government would consider fixing the price at the pump so as to prevent fuel distributors from earning windfall profits because of the record high prices due to the closure of Strait of Hormuz. The statement from the Ministry read: "The government will continue to closely monitor the evolution in prices and margins with close dialogue with industry actors." The Finance Ministry did not reply to a question about whether they still plan to implement their decree capping the prices. The French prime minister said that 'nothing is off the table', including a superprofits tax, to help ease financial hardship for consumers. The government's public discussion of a possible decree to cap margins coincided with the peak in margins and their subsequent stabilisation to pre-war levels. This shows that the industry understood the message, said an official from the finance ministry who declined to give his name. Data shows that the profit margins on gasoil used in diesel engines jumped from $0.28 per liter ($1.25 per gallon), before the war, to almost $0.40 per litre ($1.51 a gallon) during the first week in March, before they slowed down. The margins on gasoline rose from 0.30 euro per litre (or $1.32 per gallon), pre-war, to 0.33 euro per litre or $1.48 per gallon in the same time period. The government also added that French motor fuel consumption dropped by 11% in April. It attributed this to a price-related reduction of demand as people drove less after fuel prices increased.
-
Gold reaches a record high in less than a week on US-Iran Peace Deal Hopes
The 'U.S. Iran and the United States may be close to a deal that will bring an end to high interest rates and inflation. By 11:35 am EDT (1535 GMT), spot gold had risen 3% to $4693.97 an ounce, after reaching its highest level in the previous session since April 27. U.S. Gold Futures increased?3% to $4705.60. The U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.5% making dollar-priced materials more affordable to other currency holders. The?optimism regarding a final agreement between the U.S.A. and Iran caused some relief in 'gold in the short term, as lower oil prices, moderated concerns about inflation, and shifted the biases in regards to Fed action later in the year, said Peter Grant. I wouldn't say that we are?completely in the clear. The market will continue to be influenced by Middle East headlines. IRAN REVIEWS US PROPOSAL Iran announced that it was reviewing a U.S. proposal after sources claimed Washington and Tehran had been working on a one-page memo to end the Gulf War, leaving difficult issues like Iran's nuke programme for later. Global oil prices fell after reports of a possible agreement. Brent crude futures fell to about $100 per barrel. Inflation concerns are heightened by higher oil prices, which could lead central banks to keep interest rates high in order to combat price pressures. Gold is a hedge against inflation but it suffers in an environment of high rates, since it pays no interest. Investors will be watching the'monthly U.S. Employment Report' on Friday to see if the U.S. Economy is resilient enough to maintain the Federal Reserve monetary policy or if a softening labor?market might revive the argument for rate cuts. According to the ADP National Employment report, U.S. payrolls were higher than expected in April. (Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; editing by Paul Simao and Barbara Lewis) (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao, Barbara Lewis, and Ashitha Shivaprasad from Bengaluru)
-
NY Fed Report finds that gas prices are increasing and affecting lower income groups harder
Fuel costs are rising due to the Middle East conflict, and this is putting pressure on households with lower incomes. Those who have more money can navigate the situation better. In a report published on Wednesday, New York Fed analysts wrote that "Households experienced very different gasoline expenditures" following the start of the Middle East war. The conflict has 'roiled global supply chain and sent gasoline prices soaring. The report stated that in March, wealthy households were able increase their spending to keep up with higher gasoline prices, but maintain the same real consumption level. Meanwhile, low-income households saw their nominal spending rise, while their actual consumption of gasoline decreased. The blog post said that lower-income households could have responded by moving to cheaper options. "Potentially, they may have substituted public transport or carpooling where available," it stated. The blog post noted that the current experience is similar to the last energy shock four years ago, when Russia invaded Ukraine. However, now the gap between income levels and consumption trends has become "quantitatively greater." The New York Fed's report is part of a series done by the bank's analysts in recent days to examine diverging economic perspectives?between households with high and low incomes?in the U.S. The rising gasoline prices are putting pressure on American households, and pushing inflation to high levels.
Russia warns diplomatic missions in Kyiv to evacuate staff if Moscow launches mass strikes
The Russian Foreign Ministry announced on Wednesday that it had warned diplomatic missions to evacuate their staff from Kyiv immediately in the event of a massive?strike in response to any attempts by Ukraine?to disrupt Russia's Victory Day celebrations on May 9.
In a video on Telegram posted by Spokesperson Maria Zakharova she urged diplomats in the event that an attack was made in connection with the commemorations or a military parade at Red Square.
Zakharova stated that "the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs urges your government to treat this statement with utmost care and ensure a timely evacuation of all diplomatic and other representatives from the city of Kyiv in light of the inevitable retaliatory attack on Kyiv, by the Russian Armed Forces."
Zakharova stated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy made "aggressive, threatening statements" regarding disrupting the remembrances during remarks he had made on Monday in Armenia at a meeting of?the European Political Community.
She said that "several EU countries were in attendance." "None of them reprimanded?the ringleader of Kyiv's regime."
In his remarks to the Armenian people,?Zelenskiy cited a Russian statement that the commemorations were being'scaled back and held without military hardware due to security reasons.
Zelenskiy added: "It's the first time in many years that they can't afford military equipment, and they are afraid drones will buzz over Red Square. This is telling." This is telling."
(source: Reuters)