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CEE ECONOMY - Romanian inflation spikes to highest level since mid-2023, but still below expectations

The Iran 'war caused fuel prices to surge, clouding the outlook for rate cuts.

Data from the National Statistics Board on Tuesday showed that consumer prices increased by 9.87% over the year in March. This is up from 9,31% in February, but still below analyst expectations of 10,35%. Prices increased 0.78% over the month.

The inflation rate reached double digits in the second half last year, after the broad coalition government of Romania raised the value-added taxes and other levies in order to reduce the biggest budget deficit in Europe.

Analysts had predicted that policymakers would begin reducing interest rates in the second half 2026, when the effects of higher taxes and electricity prices would have faded. The economic fallout of the Middle East conflict has added uncertainty to inflation forecasts.

In May, Romania's central banking, which has set an inflation target of 1,5%-3,5%, will publish its updated forecasts. Prior to the start of the war, policymakers expected that inflation would return to the target by the second half 2027.

BCR Bank said that "with the short-term profile of inflation shifting upwards, the central bank will consider?eventual rates cuts at the earliest meeting scheduled for November", BCR bank.

The ECB's moves and expectations (on inflation) are likely to be closely watched by the central bank.

The government has reduced the excise tax on diesel by 0.30 lei ($0.0679) a litre to cushion consumers and businesses. It also capped fuel markups, and limited exports.

The government is also compensating some transport companies for diesel costs. It has also extended the cap on household gas prices to April 2027 by one year.

The 2026 budget approved in March aims to reduce deficit from over 9% to 6.2%. It is based on a 1% economic growth assumption. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Niandy; Luiza Ilie)

(source: Reuters)